Paul Konerko's contract

[Greg Hibbard]

Obviously, Konerko has been on such a hot tear (maybe the hottest month of his career?) that it seems as though he's primed for at least a decent year, barring a Dye-esque fade into oblivion. Hopefully.

 

his stats over the life of his current contract:

 

AB 2183

H 599

BA .274

OBA .357

SLG .505

OPS .862

HR 128 (34 per 162 games played)

BB 279 (75 per 162 games played)

2B 117 (31 per 162 games played)

 

I'd love to pick the forum's brain on what kind of value everyone thinks the Sox got out of him for his $60 million deal, in both of these two scenarios:

 

1) Konerko has a good-great year with .280+/40+ HR (and ends with an .855-.860+ OPS over the life of the deal)

2) Konerko fades a bit and has something like a .260/30-35 HR year (and ends around a .840-.850 OPS over the life of the deal)

 

[Steve9347]

Don't sign his ass til the season's over whatever you do. This contract play is nice.

[NorthSideSox72]

There are a couple other things the Sox got out of Konerko that are not part of those offensive numbers. For one, he's typically been an above average 1B defensively. For another, he's been both a fan favorite and a team leader. Those things all have value.

 

Of course on the negative side, what is also not in your analysis is that he has been the slowest man on the team throughout the duration of his contract, and one of the slowest in baseball.

 

Overall, looking at what others have been paid at similar points in their careers, I think the Paulie deal worked out pretty well. They didn't end up with an albatross contract, but they didn't get a bargain either.

 

[Balta1701]

From a purely baseball standpoint based entirely on his numbers and ignoring marketing/revenue/fans good will...he's probably been overpaid by a couple million dollars per year.

 

Think of it this way...if you had predicted that 1 Konerko would be hurt most of 2007 and his numbers would take a giant nose-dive, and 2. The housing market was going to implode and make a large dent in sports revenues in the 2008-2009 offseasons, you'd judge that Konerko probably was overpaid in 3 of the 5 years of that deal.

 

On the other hand, I don't see how you can be really that angry with the deal. It seems on any team right now, you need to have at least a selection of veteran players who are paid somewhat above value...with the sole goal of filling in holes that develop if you fail to draft someone to fill that hole or if the guy you have drafted busts. Compare it to our CF slot the last 4 years...Since 2006, that's been a black hole of offense. To get offense there, we've had to sacrifice defense. Finally, we've put someone there who can both hit and field, but we're paying what is likely a premium price for it. Our 1b slot seems likely to have been a similar hole the last 4 years if we didn't have PK14 there. Oh sure, we could have put Gload there or signed someone or made a trade, but none of those are really appealing options, and the 1b we've brought up through the minors in that time haven't really reached the big leagues yet (Allen, Carter) even though they were traded off.

[TitoMB345]

I'd do it again if we could. I love me some Paulie. He's consistently reliable, in some form. Rarely does he let his offensive slumps carry to the field or vice-versa.

[Greg Hibbard]

From a purely baseball standpoint based entirely on his numbers and ignoring marketing/revenue/fans good will...he's probably been overpaid by a couple million dollars per year.

 

Think of it this way...if you had predicted that 1 Konerko would be hurt most of 2007 and his numbers would take a giant nose-dive, and 2. The housing market was going to implode and make a large dent in sports revenues in the 2008-2009 offseasons, you'd judge that Konerko probably was overpaid in 3 of the 5 years of that deal.

 

On the other hand, I don't see how you can be really that angry with the deal. It seems on any team right now, you need to have at least a selection of veteran players who are paid somewhat above value...with the sole goal of filling in holes that develop if you fail to draft someone to fill that hole or if the guy you have drafted busts. Compare it to our CF slot the last 4 years...Since 2006, that's been a black hole of offense. To get offense there, we've had to sacrifice defense. Finally, we've put someone there who can both hit and field, but we're paying what is likely a premium price for it. Our 1b slot seems likely to have been a similar hole the last 4 years if we didn't have PK14 there. Oh sure, we could have put Gload there or signed someone or made a trade, but none of those are really appealing options, and the 1b we've brought up through the minors in that time haven't really reached the big leagues yet (Allen, Carter) even though they were traded off.

 

This post sums up exactly why I think it's an interesting debate. I don't know how you can be angry with Paulie essentially missing 30 games over 4+ years of the deal due to injury, when his BA, OBA and OPS are right in line with his career stats. Essentially, he gave you what you expected him to, on average. And yet, it does seem like he's overpaid, for some reason.

Edited May 4, 2010 by Greg Hibbard

[Buehrlesque]

This post sums up exactly why I think it's an interesting debate. I don't know how you can be angry with Paulie essentially missing 30 games over 4+ years of the deal due to injury, when his BA, OBA and OPS are right in line with his career stats. Essentially, he gave you what you expected him to, on average. And yet, it does seem like he's overpaid, for some reason.

Actually, Paulie performed better over the life of the contract than I expected he would. When he signed, I cringed a little at thought of what he would be like by the end of it. He's overpaid, but that was a given. They had just won the WS. However, the contract never became an albatross.

 

Remember how much of an albatross his deal was in 2003? The Sox were trying to dump him off on anyone, and no one would take him. Who knew we'd be here 7 years later with a WS title and a good performing 1B!!

 

I've never been a big Konerko fan in general, and I don't buy any of he clubhouse/captain/leader intangible stuff. But he's performed better than I though over the past 4+ years and the contract was nowhere near a disaster.

[fathom]

At least there's been no hip issues. If this is his last season here, and I think it will be, I hope he goes out with a great season. I'll always remember his GS in Game 2 of the WS. Best sports moment of my life.

[Greg Hibbard]

As a side note, an interesting debate is Harold Baines vs. Paul Konerko. They have similar numbers in a lot of ways.

[WCSox]

He may have been slightly overpaid, but not excessively so. As has been mentioned earlier, his intangibles make up for a lot of that.

 

It'll be interesting to see what happens next year, with both PK and Jones being FAs. With Jones not likely to re-sign and CQ appearing unlikely to put up 2008 numbers regularly (or even once again), there will be a dire need for more offense, and it's unlikely to come from within the organization. Does Kenny give PK a three-year extension at a lower yearly salary, or does he go after FAs?

 

[jasonxctf]

is he a FA after the year?

 

 

[chw42]

At the time he signed, it was not an overpay, right now, it's a slight overpay. But depending on what he does this year, it might not be if he continues to produce like he has. He's already been worth 1.3 WAR so far, more than his entire season in 2008.

Edited May 4, 2010 by chw42

[chw42]

The scary part about Konerko's numbers right now is that his BABIP is only .185. Hitting a ton of home runs will do that, but even if those stop, you can expect his average and OBP to at least hold up.

[SoxAce]

He's already been worth 1.3 WAR so far, more than his entire season in 2008.

 

Already in the second tier with guys like Maggs, Damon etc.. (Morneau, Pujols and Mauer are 1st tier)

Edited May 4, 2010 by SoxAce

[witesoxfan]

At least there's been no hip issues. If this is his last season here, and I think it will be, I hope he goes out with a great season. I'll always remember his GS in Game 2 of the WS. Best sports moment of my life.

 

Aside from winning the World Series, that and Podsednik's homer are 1a and 1b. Blum's homer didn't actually win it within the moment, and I was on such a roller coaster of emotion (especially after Konerko had just GIDP'd) that I couldn't appreciate Blum's homer to the fullest.

[fathom]

Aside from winning the World Series, that and Podsednik's homer are 1a and 1b. Blum's homer didn't actually win it within the moment, and I was on such a roller coaster of emotion (especially after Konerko had just GIDP'd) that I couldn't appreciate Blum's homer to the fullest.

 

Haha, I remember that great play by Ensberg to turn the double play. Another forgotten moment from that game was Uribe absolutely butchering what should have been the final out, which resulted in Buehrle coming in for the save.

[Chisoxfn]

Haha, I remember that great play by Ensberg to turn the double play. Another forgotten moment from that game was Uribe absolutely butchering what should have been the final out, which resulted in Buehrle coming in for the save.

I'll always remember the 2 plays Buehrle made to end the clinching game of the world series. Two plays where I feel he might have been the only SS in the game that could have made both of those plays.

[iamshack]

I'll always remember the 2 plays Uribe made to end the clinching game of the world series. Two plays where I feel he might have been the only SS in the game that could have made both of those plays.

Ahem.

[fathom]

I'll always remember the 2 plays Buehrle made to end the clinching game of the world series. Two plays where I feel he might have been the only SS in the game that could have made both of those plays.

 

Well of course everyone remembers those!! If D. Jeter made the catch that he did in the 9th inning, we would have never seen the end of it. I still don't think I've ever been as angry in my life as when Ozzie let Hermanson pitch in Game 3 in the 8th inning. Probably lost 8 years of my life that night...but it was worth it! I want to punch everyone that says they are a Sox fan and went to bed before that game was over.

[BigSqwert]

Well of course everyone remembers those!! If D. Jeter made the catch that he did in the 9th inning, we would have never seen the end of it. I still don't think I've ever been as angry in my life as when Ozzie let Hermanson pitch in Game 3 in the 8th inning. Probably lost 8 years of my life that night...but it was worth it! I want to punch everyone that says they are a Sox fan and went to bed before that game was over.

For real. I wound up walking about 6 miles home in the middle of the night because I had no money on me (just my CTA pass) and didn't realize when I got off on the Belmont Blue Line stop that the bus no longer ran at night. Neither did the Addison bus.

Edited May 4, 2010 by BigSqwert

[iamshack]

Well of course everyone remembers those!! If D. Jeter made the catch that he did in the 9th inning, we would have never seen the end of it. I still don't think I've ever been as angry in my life as when Ozzie let Hermanson pitch in Game 3 in the 8th inning. Probably lost 8 years of my life that night...but it was worth it! I want to punch everyone that says they are a Sox fan and went to bed before that game was over.

I had met up with my first love that night for the first time in probably 5 years and she was trying to distract me with her evil womanly sexual powers...let's just say I watched that game in a different way than is the norm for me....but I did not miss one out!

[southsider2k5]

There is no question in my mind that the Sox had to sign Konerko to anything that wasn't a crazy contract after winning the WS. For a five year deal, they really haven't done too bad to this point.

[jasonxctf]

in the class of potential free agent 1B for next season, where does Paulie rank?

 

First Basemen

 

This is probably the biggest collection of big names with Albert Pujols, Lance Berkman, Derrek Lee and Carlos Pena.

 

Lance Berkman HOU *

 

Wes Helms FLA

 

Jason Giambi COL

 

Ross Gload FLA

 

Paul Konerko CWS

 

Derrek Lee CHC

 

David Ortiz BOS *

 

Lyle Overbay TOR

 

Carlos Pena TB

 

Albert Pujols STL *

 

Garrett Atkins COL

 

Read more at Suite101: 2011 MLB Free Agents: Baseball Players With Expiring Contracts After 2010 Season http://major-league-baseball.suite101.com/...s#ixzz0mzx1DNwi

 

[Balta1701]

Pujols has an option that will be picked up as long as he can still walk.

[Milkman delivers]

I've always felt (and I have no idea how the statistics back this up over the life of his contract) that Konerko seemed to give the team average to a little below average in terms of power for a 1B. At the time he signed the contract, it seemed like we overpaid a bit and probably had a year too many on it, but we sort of had to given that we had just won a WS and we didn't really have another option. Now that the contract is expiring, it looks like it has been very fair or maybe just slightly too much money.

 

EDIT: Oh, but I cannot stand the lack of hustle Konerko shows when he's in a funk. The shrug and slow (even for him) trot to first base. If he's really a team leader, he'd run out those outs hard.

Edited May 4, 2010 by Milkman delivers