7.5 games back.

[lostfan]

You could also say there is no reason to have either of those players on the roster as well.. and Ozzie couldnt do these things if KW didnt make it all available to happen..

 

And I get what you were saying, I was just throwing it out there

I didn't mind Kotsay being brought back because he's a good pinch hitter and occasional backup when he's used that way, but Ozzie seems to think he's basically an everyday player. Vizquel, well, there really isn't much defending that move.

[greg775]

Kenny might as well start doing as much wheeling and dealing as he can as soon as he can.

There's no sense waiting on this team to start excelling. Patience is a virtue but the Sox have stunk for a while now, not just this season.

Might as well start making massive changes cause at least that would be interesting.

 

I'd keep Thornton and assume he can close for a few seasons and keep Beckham and at least three of the four group of Buehrle, Floyd, Peavy and Danks, and wheel and deal with everybody else on the roster available as well as our prospects. Have some fun with it cause the Sox haven't been much fun for a while now.

Edited May 11, 2010 by greg775

[hogan873]

Kenny might as well start doing as much wheeling and dealing as he can as soon as he can.

There's no sense waiting on this team to start excelling. Patience is a virtue but the Sox have stunk for a while now, not just this season.

Might as well start making massive changes cause at least that would be interesting.

 

I'd keep Thornton and assume he can close for a few seasons and keep Beckham and at least three of the four group of Buehrle, Floyd, Peavy and Danks, and wheel and deal with everybody else on the roster available as well as our prospects. Have some fun with it cause the Sox haven't been much fun for a while now.

I agree about making it interesting. I would find it hard to believe that KW could make a move (a big bat) and make this team a contender. There are too many holes. We'd need Beckham, Pierre, AJ, Quentin, Floyd, and Buehrle to turn their seasons around right now (and that means tonight) in order for this team to have a chance. I would put Santos as the closer vs. Thornton, though.

 

So, who gets dealt? If Jenks is dealt, there's not going to be a whole lot coming back for him. But, at this point do we care? Otherwise, I could see AJ and maybe Konerko plus one of either Danks or Floyd. Plus, maybe sell high on Jones.

 

Time will tell, but I have a strange feeling that KW will not wave the white flag anytime soon. At the same time, I don't see him adding anything either. Depleting the farm for Gonzalez makes no sense at this time.

[Balta1701]

I agree about making it interesting. I would find it hard to believe that KW could make a move (a big bat) and make this team a contender. There are too many holes. We'd need Beckham, Pierre, AJ, Quentin, Floyd, and Buehrle to turn their seasons around right now (and that means tonight) in order for this team to have a chance. I would put Santos as the closer vs. Thornton, though.

 

So, who gets dealt? If Jenks is dealt, there's not going to be a whole lot coming back for him. But, at this point do we care? Otherwise, I could see AJ and maybe Konerko plus one of either Danks or Floyd. Plus, maybe sell high on Jones.

 

Time will tell, but I have a strange feeling that KW will not wave the white flag anytime soon. At the same time, I don't see him adding anything either. Depleting the farm for Gonzalez makes no sense at this time.

If you wave the white flag...I think you start doing it after Memorial day, if this road trip goes poorly and you're looking at being 10 games out.

 

Guys you have to try like crazy to deal:

Jones

Konerko

Putz

Pierzynski

 

All 4 of them are Free Agents at the end of the season, and with each of them, you ought to be able to get back more than you trade away, esp. if you put Putz in the closer's role for a month or so and he's average at it.

 

Guy I think you should try to deal for a real major return:

Rios. Big salary savings, and now that he's looking like an all-star again, most of that trade value he had in Toronto should be back.

 

Guys you deal if anyone will take them off your hands:

Jenks

Linebrink

Pierre

Castro

 

For being this bad, this team has a lot of tradeable assets...because the reason they're this bad, aside from AJ and Pierre, has mostly to do with the guys you don't want to give up on (Quentin, Beckham, Alexei).

[caulfield12]

Do we really want to trade Alex Rios?

 

Isn't he a cornerstone CFer we could build around?

 

Where else are we going to get a player like him? Jordan Danks? Maybe if we're REALLY REALLY lucky, Mitchell or Trayce Thompson become that type of impact player in the outfield, but would anyone bet on it happening? Mitchell will also take at least 2 seasons to arrive now, from all likelihood, if not 2 1/2.

 

Plus, we haven't had a solid everyday CFer since Aaron Rowand, and I wouldn't exactly consider him an All-Star. It took 2-3 seasons to prove to KW and then Guillen that he was actually an everyday player. They were about to give up on him, in fact, after he had that serious motorcycle accident in the offseason.

 

It almost makes more sense to trade Peavy than Rios if we're going into a 2-3 year rebuild, because Rios won't do anything but give us salary relief. We won't get as much in return. With Peavy, we can clear salary and get 2-3 serious prospects to build the franchise back up. Plus, those huge contracts for pitchers are much bigger risks than they are for position players IMO.

 

 

[Balta1701]

If we're going to go into selling mode this season, yes, I think you trade Alex Rios. He's moved back to very high value this year to a team missing a CF bat who can play defense (Boston? SF?), he's terrifically expensive the next few years for a team with our salary level, and there's every reason to think that we're going to see a salary cut in the near future after this implosion of a season.

 

Peavy I'd consider moving...but first of all, he has a no-trade clause that makes things difficult (See: last year), and second, between his injuries and his slow start to this season, unless he's in the middle of a 60 inning scoreless streak in July, I don't think you'd get anywhere near full value from him.

[caulfield12]

If we're going to go into selling mode this season, yes, I think you trade Alex Rios. He's moved back to very high value this year to a team missing a CF bat who can play defense (Boston? SF?), he's terrifically expensive the next few years for a team with our salary level, and there's every reason to think that we're going to see a salary cut in the near future after this implosion of a season.

 

Peavy I'd consider moving...but first of all, he has a no-trade clause that makes things difficult (See: last year), and second, between his injuries and his slow start to this season, unless he's in the middle of a 60 inning scoreless streak in July, I don't think you'd get anywhere near full value from him.

 

 

And you actually trust KW to go out and find another CFer?

 

That's been a hole in 2006, 2007, 2008 and 2009...a huge one.

[Balta1701]

And you actually trust KW to go out and find another CFer?

 

That's been a hole in 2006, 2007, 2008 and 2009...a huge one.

The reason that position has been a hole is that the guy we had for that slot busted (which I still say the manager helped contribute to, but that's another argument) and because we traded the 2nd candidate for Vazquez, and because we traded the 3rd candidate to Oakland for Swisher.

 

Yes, I expect that its possible to find another CF. Between D2 and Mitchell we have at least 2 candidates who might be able to take the job over the next couple years. And if we're doing the legitimate fire sale, including Rios, Konerko, Jones, and Putz...I wouldn't be surprised if one target in that sale was an A-ball athletic OF from some team.

 

The only reason why that position was so hard to fill was that we kept trying to give Anderson a shot.

[BigSqwert]

Rios is untradeable in my eyes. He brings too much to piss away and hope we can build something from within. The guy is terrific on defense, an area we continue to sorely neglect.

[Balta1701]

Rios is untradeable in my eyes. He brings too much to piss away and hope we can build something from within. The guy is terrific on defense, an area we continue to sorely neglect.

IMO, no one who is high priced and could bring back high return can be considered untradeable if you pull the plug on the season. He's the guy I insist you must try to move, but for a high price.

 

Lots of teams could have use for him for the same reason we'd want a high price. The Red Sox's OF plans are a disaster right now and they need bats. I don't know how Westmoreland is after his surgery, but if they offered him straight up for Rios, you'd hesitate? Remember, this is a good defensive CF putting up a >.900 OPS right now. That's a killer commodity, but a luxury a rebuilding team can't afford.

[BigSqwert]

IMO, no one who is high priced and could bring back high return can be considered untradeable if you pull the plug on the season. He's the guy I insist you must try to move, but for a high price.

 

Lots of teams could have use for him for the same reason we'd want a high price. The Red Sox's OF plans are a disaster right now and they need bats. I don't know how Westmoreland is after his surgery, but if they offered him straight up for Rios, you'd hesitate? Remember, this is a good defensive CF putting up a >.900 OPS right now. That's a killer commodity, but a luxury a rebuilding team can't afford.

 

But with our core of starting pitching the window to be a contender is about 2 or 3 years. You trade him away and spend how many years trying to replace someone like him in our outfield?

 

And just to remind you, here are some notable outfielder names from the White Sox in recent years:

 

Juan Pierre

Scott Podsednik

Carlos Quentin

Rob Mackoviak

Jermaine Dye

Ken Griffey Jr

Carl Everett

 

There's probably more I'm forgetting but talk about an All Star team of suckitude (defensively of course).

[Balta1701]

But with our core of starting pitching the window to be a contender is about 2 or 3 years. You trade him away and spend how many years trying to replace someone like him in our outfield?

If our core of starting pitching only lasts 2-3 years, then considering we've totally blown a year, we're really in trouble.

[Balta1701]

Let me re-say this...if you're not willing to move Rios right now, then you're not willing to go forward with a fire sale. It's not a fire sale until you target a top 25 in baseball prospect and move the most valuable trade chip you have to get that prospect, while at the same time saving your team $50 million over the next few years.

 

If you're willing to hold onto Rios, then you're still holding out hope for this team as currently constructed.

[BigSqwert]

If you're willing to hold onto Rios, then you're still holding out hope for this team as currently constructed.

 

I don't agree with this statement. You can keep Rios and make changes to 1B and catcher while tweaking your bullpen in the off season.

[Balta1701]

I don't agree with this statement. You can keep Rios and make changes to 1B and catcher while tweaking your bullpen in the off season.

IMO, no you can't. He's a big chunk of committed salary for next season first of all, which prevents you from being able to make changes to the other positions OTHER than bringing up your cheap rookies (Viciedo and Flowers), and if you're holding him rather than dealing him for youth, then you're missing out on whatever guys dealing him could bring into your system.

 

If you hold Rios...you're bringing up Flowers and probably Viciedo to fill those holes, and you're bringing up rookies so there's every reason to expect them to struggle. You've then got the Quentin, Beckham, and Ramirez issues remaining potentially unsolved, and you've got no one to replace any of them if they don't snap out of it. And even though you're getting some salary savings by removing your expensive 1b, C, and Closer...you're still left with having to spend money on a DH and several new bullpen pieces possibly including a closer. At best, you're treading water with a sub-.500 team, and at worst, if your young guys struggle, you're into a full rebuilding mode without having cut any real salary.

[BigSqwert]

So wait. We continue to pay Paulie's, AJ's, and Bobby's salaries next year when they're no longer here?

[Balta1701]

So wait. We continue to pay Paulie's, AJ's, and Bobby's salaries next year when they're no longer here?

No. Read what I said:

And even though you're getting some salary savings by removing your expensive 1b, C, and Closer...you're still left with having to spend money on a DH and several new bullpen pieces possibly including a closer.

 

So, we bring up our top spects Next year: D2, Viciedo, and Flowers. Pierre Goes to the bench. Rios and Peavy aren't dealt. Linebrink still here.

 

In that case, we're still starting at $72 million committed with $3 million coming in from the Dodgers, before arbitration hearings for D1, Quentin, and TPain. D1 is probably a legitimate nearly $10 million arbitration case. Quentin...The 2008 version of Quentin only knows what he'll get, but that's a couple million for both of them, maybe even pushing >$5 million if he gets hot towards the end of the year. So we're starting off the offseason with a lineup including 3 rookies, Teahen at 3b, Beckham and Ramirez and Quentin still as potential gaping holes, with no DH, 4 starters (bring up Hudson for the 5th slot presumably), we've lost 2 of our RH arms in the bullpen and need to replace those (Jenks and Putz), and we don't have an obvious experienced closer, so either we're trying out a kid (Santos L. Halper) in that spot or we're going for one on the FA market. And Randy Williams is still our 2nd lefty.

 

In other words, we're over $80 million on commitments, probably closer to $85 or even $90 once you count guys who are in at the minimum, and we're starting 3 rookies and 3 young-ish players all of whom are struggling this year. Mark Teahen is basically the guy in your lineup you have the most confidence in. Then you go out and spend $10 million on a legitimate DH, a couple million on bench guys, and a RH reliever, and that's all the room you have to maneuver.

 

And oh, you've also lost 20% of your season ticket base. Have a nice day.

[caulfield12]

No. Read what I said:

 

 

So, we bring up our top spects Next year: D2, Viciedo, and Flowers. Pierre Goes to the bench. Rios and Peavy aren't dealt. Linebrink still here.

 

In that case, we're still starting at $72 million committed with $3 million coming in from the Dodgers, before arbitration hearings for D1, Quentin, and TPain. D1 is probably a legitimate nearly $10 million arbitration case. Quentin...The 2008 version of Quentin only knows what he'll get, but that's a couple million for both of them, maybe even pushing >$5 million if he gets hot towards the end of the year. So we're starting off the offseason with a lineup including 3 rookies, Teahen at 3b, Beckham and Ramirez and Quentin still as potential gaping holes, with no DH, 4 starters (bring up Hudson for the 5th slot presumably), we've lost 2 of our RH arms in the bullpen and need to replace those (Jenks and Putz), and we don't have an obvious experienced closer, so either we're trying out a kid (Santos L. Halper) in that spot WHO IS THAT? Santos, Sergio? Santos Rodriguez? LEFTY? or we're going for one on the FA market. And Randy Williams is still our 2nd lefty.

 

In other words, we're over $80 million on commitments, probably closer to $85 or even $90 once you count guys who are in at the minimum, and we're starting 3 rookies and 3 young-ish players all of whom are struggling this year. Mark Teahen is basically the guy in your lineup you have the most confidence in. Then you go out and spend $10 million on a legitimate DH, a couple million on bench guys, and a RH reliever, and that's all the room you have to maneuver.

 

 

Teahen I'd have ZERO confidence in starting for a team hoping to win the division or go deep into the playoffs. KW having him sign that extension b4 he proved anything with us was close to idiotic.

 

I think you're right about Rios, you can also include Webster (Anthony) and Jeremy Reed in the list of potential "internal" CF candidates since Rowand. We've had so many, like Owens, Wise, Lillibridge, Anderson (last year) that were complete busts or disappointments.

 

If we really want to lower payroll, we're going to have to gut Peavy/Buehrle/Konerko/AJ/Jenks and hold onto Danks and Floyd, hoping Hudson can become at least a 3 and maybe a 2, but most likely 3-4, like the Twins seem to have a ton of (Blackburn/Slowey/Perkins/Pavano).

 

The question becomes who is easiest to trade? Which player do we want to keep the most (Rios, Buehrle, Peavy)....and which one gives us the biggest payoff in terms of minor league prospects from High A ball on up....(see the Indians' nearly complete decimation of all their talent the last 2 seasons, with the exceptions of Hafner/Sizemore/Peralta). Then, if you can't get Danksie to agree to that long-term extension that blows Floyd's deal out of the water (more like Lester's with BOSOX), then you have to look into what you can get for him.

 

Those four players (Rios, Peavy, Buehrle, Danks) are the single biggest decisions KW has left to deal with....everything else seems pretty obvious at this juncture.

 

We can also trade Garcia, Castro (or keep him as a starter next year with Flowers/Viciedo at 1B/DH, Flowers rotating with Castro at catcher), Linebrink, Putz, Andruw Jones, Vizquel, Kotsay (close to ZERO return for the last two, but they deserve chances to go out with playoff teams, if we can swing a deal and a contending team would be willing to give them the last spot on the bench).

Edited May 11, 2010 by caulfield12

[kitekrazy]

I don't like the idea of trading for prospects because that's what they are. I don't trust the Sox farm system either to further develop those prospects.

The problem is losing teams always makes those trades. Those trades are made out of weakness.

 

 

[caulfield12]

Balta, do you see any possible way out of this situation that's NOT going to cost us 20-30-40% of our season ticket base, not to mention decreased advertising revenues, tv and radio ratings, etc.?

 

What is it?

 

I think we just have to bite the bullet and hope we can make it back into contention in (hopefully) 2012 or at least 2013.

 

 

[caulfield12]

I don't like the idea of trading for prospects because that's what they are. I don't trust the Sox farm system either to further develop those prospects.

The problem is losing teams always makes those trades. Those trades are made out of weakness.

 

 

What do you propose?

 

Holding on to players like Jenks, Crede, Dotel, Linebrink, Thome and Dye one or two seasons too long, you have ZERO to show for it in the end....(yes, Thome would have been impossible to deal without sending cash the other direction).

 

Orlando Cabrera will end up netting us more than those four combined, ironically.

 

We are in a position of major weakness both at the major and minor league levels. We have one strength.....Buehrle, Floyd, Danks and Peavy, as well as our individual collection of bullpen arms, their potential, moreso than their actual results when it's crunch time.

Edited May 11, 2010 by caulfield12

[Balta1701]

Balta, do you see any possible way out of this situation that's NOT going to cost us 20-30-40% of our season ticket base, not to mention decreased advertising revenues, tv and radio ratings, etc.?

 

What is it?

 

I think we just have to bite the bullet and hope we can make it back into contention in (hopefully) 2012 or at least 2013.

2 things.

 

First...have an effective fire sale. Turn Konerko, Jones, and Putz into A-ball level pieces, 2 or 3 of which develop into major league starters (my recent example for how to do this is the Indians deal of Casey Blake to the Dodgers. The high level piece in that deal was Jon Meloan, guy with a high ERA but lots of strikeouts, who eventually wound up traded and DFA. The low level piece in that deal was Carlos Santana, who is now making beautiful music as the Indians number one prospect and probably the top catching prospect in the bigs (him or Posey).

 

The effective fire sale also saves you a chunk of cash this season, which may offset the losses on this year's ticket sales.

 

I'd also try to do Rios. Because that makes my second one possible:

 

2. Take some of the pieces you get from the effective fire sale and turn them into a major draw that you can suddenly re-sign because you cleared salary. That's the Fielder/Gonzalez part of the deal...suddenly, you cleared $15 million from your books this season and an extra $15 million next season, you've loaded up your minor leagues with assets you can both develop and trade, and you can bring up the guys that you currently have.

 

The other way to do it would be to have Beckham and Quentin turn white hot starting tonight. I won't be holding my breath though.

[elrockinMT]

So we trade our performers and keep those who don't perform? Not much sense in that

[Balta1701]

So we trade our performers and keep those who don't perform? Not much sense in that

Basically, if you want to correctly do a full rebuild, and the non-performers are young and inexpensive...yeah, that's exactly what you have to do.

[elrockinMT]

Basically, if you want to correctly do a full rebuild, and the non-performers are young and inexpensive...yeah, that's exactly what you have to do.

 

 

Trade Jenks and Teahan and Kotsay and maybe AJP and see what you mght be able to add. Trade away your strong nucleus and all you do is add inexperience to go with inexperience.