Unload...

[kitekrazy]

So unload the entire team including top players signed for multiple years for what exactly? A bunch of prospects? Walk back to your living room, pick up your controller and continue your MLB the show league. IN real life, this idea is what we call retarded.

 

Awesome post.

 

 

 

[fathom]

Awesome post.

 

Maybe the best post in the history of this board.

[RockRaines]

The rotation we have isn't all that great. Buerhle has been bad since the middle of last year. Same with Floyd. Peavy hasn't been anything near an Ace, much less an All-star type pitcher.

 

It can be done, but you are praying for a ton of players to play significantly above what they ddi this year. I think that is a big risk, and not the way to build the team. Thats just my opinion though.

So lets ignore Peavy and Buehrle's career numbers and base all judgment off of a few months? Is that what you are saying is smart GM-ing?

[chisoxfan09]

Any one think Danks is worth considering if we nose dive and he does not sign an extension? If he has a semi productive year with no run support he could be an Ace on other teams and would fetch a nice bounty.

[Balta1701]

Any one think Danks is worth considering if we nose dive and he does not sign an extension? If he has a semi productive year with no run support he could be an Ace on other teams and would fetch a nice bounty.

I'd be open listening but I'd demand the kind of offer the Padres are looking for for Gonzalez or that the Brewers would want for Fielder.

[hawksox13]

So lets ignore Peavy and Buehrle's career numbers and base all judgment off of a few months? Is that what you are saying is smart GM-ing?

 

 

If we are going to continue to play virtual GM then let me take a shot at it:

 

In really looking ahead to what 2011 could look like, you have to start looking at salaries, who will have increases and who will likely not be brought back to the team. I’m going to guess that the following players will not be brought back in 2011 or will be traded during the 2010 season:

 

Bobby Jenks - $7.5M in 2010

Paul Konerko - $12M in 2010

A.J. Pierzynksi - $6.75M in 2010

Freddy Garcia - $1M in 2010

Omar Vizquel - $1.375M in 2010

Mark Kotsay - $1.5M in 2010

Andruw Jones - $500K in 2010

J.J. Putz - $3M in 2010

 

Now here are the projected salaries for the players on the 2011 roster:

 

Rotation:

1. Peavy - $16M

2. Buehrle - $14M

3. Danks - $5.5M (estimated to include arbitration increase)

4. Floyd - $5M

5. Hudson - $425K (estimated league minimum in 2011)

 

Bullpen:

Thorton - $3M (assuming Sox pick up his option)

Santos - $425K (estimated league minimum in 2011)

Linebrink - $5.5M

Pena - $1.8M (estimated to include arbitration increase)

Marquez - $425K (estimated league minimum in 2011)

Williams - $425K

Additional Bullpen Arm – Assume $1M for this slot

 

Bench Players:

Ramon Castro - $1.2M (assuming his option is picked up)

Jayson Nix - $425K

1 back up infielder – Assume $1M for this slot

1 back up outfielder – Assume $1M for this slot

 

Starting Position Players: Juan Pierre – LF - $5M

Gordon Beckham – 2B - $425K (estimated league minimum in 2011)

Alex Rios – CF - $12M

Carlos Quentin – DH - $4.5M

Alexei Ramirez – SS - $1.1M

Mark Teahen - $4.75M

Tyler Flowers - $425K (estimated league minimum in 2011)

1st Baseman – Big hole

Left Fielder – Big hole

 

With 23 men included on the roster and a starting first baseman and left fielder/DH still needed, the salary for 2011 at this point would be: $82.325M. Assuming the Sox want to stay right around a $100 million payroll in 2011, they would have $17.675M left in their budget to go out and get the starting 1B and LF that they need. The Sox do have the flexibility of either DH’ing Quentin and signing a LF/RF or letting Quentin to continue to play the field and signing a DH.

 

2011 Free Agent options to fill the 1B/DH/LF holes that the Sox will have:

Carl Crawford

Jayson Werth

Lance Berkman

Hank Blalock

Adam Dunn

Nick Johnson

Adam LaRoche

Carlos Pena

Xavier Nady

Brad Hawpe

 

My personal preference here would be to sign Adam LaRoche and Carl Crawford. LaRoche can probably be had in the range of 2yr/$10M. To get Carl Crawford will probably take in the range of 5yr/$70M. That would increase the Sox payroll by $19M annually and give them a 2011 payroll of $101.325M, which they can handle.

 

The question then becomes, is this line up good enough to win in the American League:

1. Carl Crawford - RF

2. Gordon Beckham – 2B

3. Alex Rios – CF

4. Carlos Quentin – DH

5. Adam LaRoche – 1B

6. Alexei Ramirez – SS

7. Mark Teahen – 3B

8. Tyler Flowers – C

9. Juan Pierre - LF

 

This team would be faster and a bit younger. The weakness of this team would be the bullpen depth. Thorton would make a solid closer and Santos has the stuff to be a set up man, but getting to those two may be difficult at times. With the position this team is in you just can't fix everything overnight, so you have to give certain things up to gain others. You can improve this team and make it younger in the off season without raiding the minor league systems talent by making trades or just completing giving in to rebuilding. That's something that's not really Kenny Williams style, but this year blew up in his face so maybe he'll try something a bit different.

 

[fathom]

Crawford will likely get more money than that, and there's no way we'd win a bidding war for his services with teams like the Yankees rumored to have an interest in him. Also, there's no way I see our payroll being over 100 million next year after what's sure to be a mediocre attendance this season. Good try though, I appreciate the thought you put into it.

[Balta1701]

Good post, but a couple points. First...I wouldn't be surprised at all if D1 is close to a $10 million arbitration player as a first year arb guy.

 

Second, you're still holding Randy Williams in the bullpen. That is approaching unacceptable based on his performance this season.

 

Third, you have bugeted $1 million for another relief pitcher. You'll note that the relief pitcher we brought in this year, Putz, is at $3 million. The other FA reliever on the roster makes $5 million+ next year. I'd argue you're seriously underpricing a RH setup man.

 

Fourth, you've priced 2 backups at $1 million each. I believe Vizuqel and Kotsay make slightly over $1 million, so that eats into your total by another $750k or so.

 

Fifth, it's possible Quentin could get more than that in arbitration as well.

 

Basically, I'd argue that up and down the list, you've systemically left the Sox more salary room than they will actually have. Because of that, signing guys and still holding a $100 million payroll becomes more possible in your scenario.

 

Finally, the last thing to consider is that the Sox's outgoing salary this year is $98 million. You've assumed a $3 million increase...but where is that revenue coming from? THis team is collapsing this year, there is no sign of a revenue shot coming in. If anything, a payroll decrease appears more likely. If the total salary drops to $95 million, and you add in a couple million on a few of those guys as I argued you need, then you're looking at filling your 1b and DH spots with about $8 million total to play with.

[hawksox13]

Crawford will likely get more money than that, and there's no way we'd win a bidding war for his services with teams like the Yankees rumored to have an interest in him. Also, there's no way I see our payroll being over 100 million next year after what's sure to be a mediocre attendance this season. Good try though, I appreciate the thought you put into it.

 

I don't think I'd pay more than $14 million per year or give Crawford more than 5 years so if he's getting more than that I'd say the Sox should probably look in another direction. Just curious, what do you think the Sox will be looking to get the payroll down to heading into next season?

[jphat007]

So lets ignore Peavy and Buehrle's career numbers and base all judgment off of a few months? Is that what you are saying is smart GM-ing?

 

Well, Buerhle's career numbers are fine because he has pitched in this park and in this league. You have to ignore soem of Peavy's numbers because he pitched in a s***ty league in a huge ballpark. And Buerhle has been bad now since around his perfect game next year. Sometimes players just get older and they get worse. It happens to most.

[fathom]

I don't think I'd pay more than $14 million per year or give Crawford more than 5 years so if he's getting more than that I'd say the Sox should probably look in another direction. Just curious, what do you think the Sox will be looking to get the payroll down to heading into next season?

 

If it's 100 million this year, I heard a projection last week on some site that 91 million would be estimated based on attendance and reveneue projections.

[fathom]

We need to stop giving Major League deals to crappy veteran players. When guys like J. Gomes are getting Minor League deals, while Kotsay and Vizquel get Major League deals, that shows that we misjudged the market to start last offseason. We can have a cheaper bench with likely better results. No reason to sign Castro for 1.2 mil next year, just let Lucy back-up.

[Balta1701]

No reason to sign Castro for 1.2 mil next year, just let Lucy back-up.

Then your starting and backup catchers both hit RH

[hawksox13]

Good post, but a couple points. First...I wouldn't be surprised at all if D1 is close to a $10 million arbitration player as a first year arb guy.

 

Second, you're still holding Randy Williams in the bullpen. That is approaching unacceptable based on his performance this season.

 

Third, you have bugeted $1 million for another relief pitcher. You'll note that the relief pitcher we brought in this year, Putz, is at $3 million. The other FA reliever on the roster makes $5 million+ next year. I'd argue you're seriously underpricing a RH setup man.

 

Fourth, you've priced 2 backups at $1 million each. I believe Vizuqel and Kotsay make slightly over $1 million, so that eats into your total by another $750k or so.

 

Fifth, it's possible Quentin could get more than that in arbitration as well.

 

Basically, I'd argue that up and down the list, you've systemically left the Sox more salary room than they will actually have. Because of that, signing guys and still holding a $100 million payroll becomes more possible in your scenario.

 

Finally, the last thing to consider is that the Sox's outgoing salary this year is $98 million. You've assumed a $3 million increase...but where is that revenue coming from? THis team is collapsing this year, there is no sign of a revenue shot coming in. If anything, a payroll decrease appears more likely. If the total salary drops to $95 million, and you add in a couple million on a few of those guys as I argued you need, then you're looking at filling your 1b and DH spots with about $8 million total to play with.

 

The Sox got Andrew Jones for $500K so there are deals out there. Kotsay makes exactly $1M. Vizquel is making $1.375M this season, but you could easily bring up a minor leaguer that will make the league minimum and still get as much production as Vizquel is giving. I was considering Santos to be the right handed set up man, so the reliever I was thinking about would be more of a middle man and be more realistic for the $1M that I included.

 

Randy Williams wouldn't be in my bullpen, but who's the better left handed option in the system that will be ready next year? Sadly, he's the best the Sox have. If Quentin and Danks get more in arbitration then I budgeted for, then that certainly does hurt my outlook. But if Quentin continues to to hit .200 this year and is ineffective I just don't see his salary doubling. Danks you may be right about.

 

[BigSqwert]

Then your starting and backup catchers both hit RH

Who cares?

[NorthSideSox72]

Who cares?

Seriously, when you are talking about the backup C, this should be a minor consideration.

 

[hawksox13]

Who cares?

 

Lucy makes sense as the back up catcher if it saves nearly $800K. As opposed to getting veteran back ups the Sox could go with a young bench, which would end up saving them another couple of million dollars. It's not ideal, but if they really are looking to cut the payroll down to $91M for next season, then they can't afford to be deep in the bullpen and on the bench. This team isn't in a position to be strong everywhere.

[jphat007]

Lucy makes sense as the back up catcher if it saves nearly $800K. As opposed to getting veteran back ups the Sox could go with a young bench, which would end up saving them another couple of million dollars. It's not ideal, but if they really are looking to cut the payroll down to $91M for next season, then they can't afford to be deep in the bullpen and on the bench. This team isn't in a position to be strong everywhere.

 

I think we'd be really lucky to have a 91 milllion dollar payroll

[Chisoxfn]

So lets ignore Peavy and Buehrle's career numbers and base all judgment off of a few months? Is that what you are saying is smart GM-ing?

Yep. Peavy is a darn good pitcher, I don't care what league he pitches in.

[Chicago White Sox]

We need to stop giving Major League deals to crappy veteran players. When guys like J. Gomes are getting Minor League deals, while Kotsay and Vizquel get Major League deals, that shows that we misjudged the market to start last offseason. We can have a cheaper bench with likely better results. No reason to sign Castro for 1.2 mil next year, just let Lucy back-up.

If Flowers is the everyday starter, would you still want Lucy backing him up?

[NorthSideSox72]

If Flowers is the everyday starter, would you still want Lucy backing him up?

For 2011, I would say yes. For this season, the Castro money is already out the door, so might as well keep him there for the duration of the season (unless Castro looks awful, then get rid of him and call up Lucy).

 

[fathom]

If Flowers is the everyday starter, would you still want Lucy backing him up?

 

Yes

[Chicago White Sox]

For 2011, I would say yes. For this season, the Castro money is already out the door, so might as well keep him there for the duration of the season (unless Castro looks awful, then get rid of him and call up Lucy).

I guess I just see a benefit to having an experienced backup catcher if your starter is a rookie. I think having a veteran might actually help Flowers' development. Also, I'm not a big Lucy fan. I just don't see his bat holding up over the course of a full season.

[hogan873]

If Flowers is the everyday starter, would you still want Lucy backing him up?

I'd have no problem with that.

[fathom]

I guess I just see a benefit to having an experienced backup catcher if your starter is a rookie. I think having a veteran might actually help Flowers' development. Also, I'm not a big Lucy fan. I just don't see his bat holding up over the course of a full season.

 

He'd fit in perfectly with the long line of horrible Sox back-up catchers. Outside of 2005 with Widger, I can't remember the last time we had a decent hitting back-up catcher.