Unload...

[WCSox]

Ok, so let me ask you this. Does one underwhelming season justify destroying a potentially outstanding core for the sake of rebuilding?

 

You're kidding, right? Try *three* underwhelming seasons since 2007.

 

[iamshack]

A good farm system is a necessary thing at this point because (1) the Sox lack young hitting talent and (2) don't have the money to acquire a significant number of veterans this winter via free agency. I'll go a step beyond that and say that all teams need decent farm systems to be competitive over the long run.

 

 

 

The method that we currently have been employing is completely unsustainable. We can't continue to rely on dealing good-to-mediocre prospects for big-contract veterans. This is especially the case when these veterans don't translate into a winning team. Sox fans are notorious for staying at home when a bad/mediocre product is on the field. Therefore, a $100M roster that wins 70-80 games isn't going to cut it. That may work with the Cubs, but not with this franchise.

 

The bottom line is that it's been a nice run, but that run is coming to an end. They either compete this year, or the dismantling will begin. Beginning this winter, there won't be enough productive veterans to hide these holes, there aren't enough young players ready to step up yet to fill them, and there isn't enough disposable cash on hand to fill them with more veterans. It's likely going to be 1999 again soon.

 

I couldn't disagree more. If they would just draft as they should, as the Tigers do, their method is completely sustainable. What's killing us is Jerry's insistence on following his pal Bud Selig's silly slot system.

[iamshack]

You're kidding, right? Try *three* underwhelming seasons since 2007.

Uhh...ok.

 

If you want to make the playoffs every year, you should become a Yankees fan, because there is no other manner in which to sustain that kind of success other than $$$$$$$

[thedoctor]

Ok, so let me ask you this. Does one underwhelming season justify destroying a potentially outstanding core for the sake of rebuilding?

 

it depends on your definition of unloading, i suppose. as i think i stated clearly, i'm not in favor of gutting the roster and starting over. i don't think the organization can afford to do that.

 

the words "potentially outstanding core" worry me. i'd agree that on paper, there are pieces here that have value, no doubt about that. we just aren't seeing that potential right now, so what is the length of life on potential? i'd agree that two underwhelming months isn't long enough to determine. but if we're 14 games out by mid-june, then what?

 

in terms of what it would take to break up that core, it just depends what you get offered. it amuses me that a.j. is being discussed so extensively. we aren't going to get squat for a.j. and clearly he isn't going to bring in someone you can hang a rebuilding project on.

[BigSqwert]

it amuses me that a.j. is being discussed so extensively. we aren't going to get squat for a.j. and clearly he isn't going to bring in someone you can hang a rebuilding project on.

 

Most of us have mentioned unloading him for the cost savings. I think most people realize he won't net you much in return with regards to prospects.

[iamshack]

You're kidding, right? Try *three* underwhelming seasons since 2007.

I'm also talking about a core that includes Beckham, Rios, and Peavy. They've been together for roughly 70 games...

[Balta1701]

Why is Thornton likely to leave?

Because 10 teams will be out there willing to pay him closer money if he's healthy.

[thedoctor]

Most of us have mentioned unloading him for the cost savings. I think most people realize he won't net you much in return with regards to prospects.

 

still, if i thought the four million we could save was going to spell the difference going forward, perhaps i'd be more excited about the idea. unfortunately, none of us can claim to know that those savings are going to be poured back into improving the club.

[Balta1701]

still, if i thought the four million we could save was going to spell the difference going forward, perhaps i'd be more excited about the idea. unfortunately, none of us can claim to know that those savings are going to be poured back into improving the club.

I know this...they're a lot more likely to be poured back into the club if they do exist.

[WCSox]

I couldn't disagree more. If they would just draft as they should, as the Tigers do, their method is completely sustainable. What's killing us is Jerry's insistence on following his pal Bud Selig's silly slot system.

 

You can't spend on free agents like the Yankees or Red Sox without their cashflow. Unlike these teams, the Sox don't have the luxury of operating with their foot on the pedal every single year.

 

Your comparison with the Tigers is silly. They're still living off of high draft picks from a string of last-place finishes in the early/mid portion of this decade, they've spent stupidly in FA in recent years, and they still haven't won anything yet. Unless you're suggesting that the Sox play like the Tigers did from 2001-2005, drafting alone isn't going to do it.

 

Uhh...ok.

 

If you want to make the playoffs every year, you should become a Yankees fan, because there is no other manner in which to sustain that kind of success other than $$$$$$$

 

I've been following the Sox longer than you've been alive, so I don't know where you get off telling me that I should follow a different team because I have a problem with spending $100M/year to finish in third or fourth place.

Edited May 19, 2010 by WCSox

[WCSox]

I'm also talking about a core that includes Beckham, Rios, and Peavy. They've been together for roughly 70 games...

 

That's far from an "outstanding core." It's a nice start, but I still don't see how the Sox have enough in-house position-player talent to compete over the next few years.

[thedoctor]

I know this...they're a lot more likely to be poured back into the club if they do exist.

 

fair point, and if i felt four million was the difference between us being a contending team and not, i'd likely be more enthusiastic about the idea.

[Balta1701]

fair point, and if i felt four million was the difference between us being a contending team and not, i'd likely be more enthusiastic about the idea.

And if I thought AJ was the difference between us being in the race and out of the race this year, I wouldn't think about trading him at all.

[Milkman delivers]

We have 1 good bullpen arm? Ok, whatever.

 

As for your teams that have sustained a lot of success because of their farm system, I really fail to see how one could argue that the method preferred by the Twins and Angels has created any more success than the model we have employed.

 

Name for me all the Angels' farmhands that have contributed to their major league success.

 

The Twins apparently cannot build dominant rotations, which is why they never win playoff series'.

 

The Phillies are definitely a team that has achieved success, however, I would argue that we are in the "golden age" of Phillies baseball right now, which has come about due to a combination of luck, skill, a new stadium, etc, rather than anyone being able to point to them and say "that is an example of a team that has been built from within."

 

Let me ask you this, Milkman, who have been the two biggest culprits in our offense underperforming thus far, in your eyes?

 

Yes, we have one good bullpen arm and a lot of what-ifs. Those were the two options you gave when referring to what a team needs. Thornton is our one good bullpen arm. Linebrink, Williams, and Jenks all suck right now. They're only what-ifs if they pull a miraculous season out of their asses now. Peña is hit or miss, and Putz is the same (although he's the closest we come to another sure thing). With Peña's history and the recent injury of Putz, they are both what-ifs. Santos has pitched 14.1 innings in his entire career for the White Sox. He's the definition of what-if.

 

As for the Angels, all of these guys (and I realize a couple are recent departures from their team) were drafted or signed by them: Howie Kendrick, Kendry Morales, Mike Napoli, Erick Aybar, Ervin Santana, Joe Saunders, Scot Shields, Jered Weaver, John Lackey, and Francisco Rodriguez. That was just from a quick look over their roster.

 

As to your statement regarding the Twins, while it is true, it really isn't relevant. The Twins were (and this is changing) a very low spending team and depended almost solely on their farm. The White Sox should be able to both invest in their farm and their major league team. If the White Sox had a farm system similar to the Twins and a payroll roughly equivalent to recent years, they'd be able to spend their money more wisely on free agents (even overpaying if necessary). You're comparing a cash-strapped team with a team that has been in the top ten in payroll for a while.

 

With Pierre heating up, Quentin and Beckham have definitely been the main culprits for our offensive woes so far. Well, the DH crap, too.

Edited May 19, 2010 by Milkman delivers

[caulfield12]

Good discussion.

 

As far as the Twins not building dominant rotations, this isn't the reason for their losses in 2002-2004 and in 2006, to me, it was much more being 1-2 impact bats short on offense. They had the speed (Hunter, Jones, Stewart) and infield defense (Koskie, Guzman, Rivas, Mientkiewicz) and fundamentals/execution. In fact, it's very easy to see in hindsight, but if David Ortiz matured and became the player he late morphed into (illegally) with the Red Sox but had done it for the Twins, it's a COMPLETELY different story about this decade in baseball, with the White Sox in 05, Tigers in 06, Indians in 2007 and the best of all these ALCD franchises being the Twins, overall, on a consistency basis.

 

Now, their pitching is a little soft, nice depth, but not really the unquestionable dominance of Liriano and Santana in tandem in 2006, paired with the steadying veteran presence of a bulldog in Radke to lead.

 

I'll give you the fact that a lot of the Angels' prospects have busted, but they still had success with Kendrick, Morales, Aybar and an infusion of young/er pitching. It's not like all of their prospects have flopped like Brandon Wood, Casey Kotchmann, Dallas McPherson, etc. Plus, they have a much better manager and stick to a consistent, year in, year out organizational philosophy instead of grasping in the dark for a new spark. At least you have to give KW credit in one sense, he showed a willingness to try something new in 2009 by ridding the club of Dye and Thome.

 

However, getting Juan Pierre 3 years too late and even thinking Mark Teahen was anything was more than a glorified utility player, these were two of the biggest mistake a GM could possibly make. Not because we gave up Ely too, but because we're stuck with both those guys, it hampers our roster reconstruction and payroll in ways that are hard to compensate for. Putz and Andruw Jones will be viewed as good/great moves, and they still won't make up for the two I mention and giving at-bats to Kotsay/Vizquel over a quality MLB HITTER/DH.

 

All this discussion about AJ coming and going...KW and Ozzie are the only ones who know if the rotation can "accept" Flowers at this point. As fathom said, the time is drawing near to see what we have with him, and trading him and keeping AJ for 1-2 more years doesn't make much sense.

 

The only way this whole thing works is:

 

1) Viciedo, Hudson and Flowers are all legit and adequately replace Paulie, Freddy and AJ

2) Quentin, Beckham and Ramirez play up to their potential, at least what MOST think they can do, especially from an offensive standpoint

 

Along with the AJ decision, the most interesting one will be on Jenks. Are Thornton or Santos really ready to close? Is Thornton's arm about to fall off, like Mike Sirotka's? Jenks has enough stuff left in the tank to get the attention of 3-5 NL GM's who are looking for the final piece in their pens (like Wagner being added last year)....I just don't want to see any more Adkins/Durham or Felix Diaz/Lofton type trades. It woul be nice for once to get back some more legit prospects in a trade (like the Vazquez trade to ATL, or the anti-Swisher trade).

 

Jones and Putz will make their own fates clear over time. TMK and Vizquel are irrelevant. Maybe Nix can put himself back into consideration moving forward as well, he's at worst an "interesting" player.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

[greg775]

Jenks isn't in the category of being horrific yet, is he? I mean he's no Linebrink or Randy Williams?

If Thornton is so much better, why don't they just reverse roles. I still wonder if Thornton was our full time closer he wouldn't blow some saves as well.

Thornton is beloved on here, but once he blows a couple saves he'll be criticized as well I'd bet.

I don't know if closer by committee works, but I do wish Thornton would close some games, especially those where he blows through the eighth inning and you can tell he's really on. On those nights, I don't know why you'd always go to Bobby in the ninth, considering Bobby has shown tendencies of shakiness the past couple seasons.

[caulfield12]

I know this...they're a lot more likely to be poured back into the club if they do exist.

 

Dick Allen? Your comments are sought.

Edited May 19, 2010 by caulfield12

[Milkman delivers]

Jenks isn't in the category of being horrific yet, is he? I mean he's no Linebrink or Randy Williams?

If Thornton is so much better, why don't they just reverse roles. I still wonder if Thornton was our full time closer he wouldn't blow some saves as well.

Thornton is beloved on here, but once he blows a couple saves he'll be criticized as well I'd bet.

I don't know if closer by committee works, but I do wish Thornton would close some games, especially those where he blows through the eighth inning and you can tell he's really on. On those nights, I don't know why you'd always go to Bobby in the ninth, considering Bobby has shown tendencies of shakiness the past couple seasons.

 

Because you can't throw 200 innings as a reliever.

[Balta1701]

The only way this whole thing works is:

 

1) Viciedo, Hudson and Flowers are all legit and adequately replace Paulie, Freddy and AJ

2) Quentin, Beckham and Ramirez play up to their potential, at least what MOST think they can do, especially from an offensive standpoint

There's one other way to work it. Steal a piece or two with a couple of solid trades this year before the deadline to add to the list of Viciedo, Hudson, and Flowers, and then use the $15 million or so you have left to plug the remaining gaps.

 

Really, there's no getting around requirement 2 though.

[Balta1701]

Dick Allen? Your comments are sought.

Really?

[caulfield12]

You can't spend on free agents like the Yankees or Red Sox without their cashflow. Unlike these teams, the Sox don't have the luxury of operating with their foot on the pedal every single year.

 

Your comparison with the Tigers is silly. They're still living off of high draft picks from a string of last-place finishes in the early/mid portion of this decade, they've spent stupidly in FA in recent years, and they still haven't won anything yet. Unless you're suggesting that the Sox play like the Tigers did from 2001-2005, drafting alone isn't going to do it.

 

 

 

I've been following the Sox longer than you've been alive, so I don't know where you get off telling me that I should follow a different team because I have a problem with spending $100M/year to finish in third or fourth place.

 

Let's just relax. Many posters (myself included) irritate the heck out of some people, but I came off the ledge a long time ago and now am just looking for individual performances/progress more than team ones, from either the MLB or minor league rosters.

 

There's no need, though, to say someone isn't a Sox fan or should follow the Yankees/Red Sox/Cubs/Cardinals/Phillies or whatever model franchises you can come up with. That's kind of silly to fight each other, isn't it?

 

KW f'ed up, let's just admit it, going into both 09 an 2010. Let's be honest. Let's not blame KW's decisions on Ozzie either, as if that somehow exonerates him. I still think he's a #8-12 GM, and I'd MUCH rather keep him than Ozzie going forward....but he's made some very bad decisions with the likes of MacDougal, Teahen, Pierre and Linebrink (although we don't get to playoffs in 08 without him, is that worth paying him for 09-10-11, you tell me).

 

Are Hudson, Viciedo and Flowers for real?

 

Are Floyd, Beckham, Quentin and Ramirez as good as we think they can/should/might be? You could even say the same thing about Thornton and Santos as the closer, for that matter.

 

If the answer to these 7-8 players turns out to be positive for 5 of them, we're okay. If not, Rios/Peavy/Buehrle are luxuries that we don't have the time to build around and this whole thing needs to be gutted.

 

I will admit that the Rios decision now looks like one of the better ones in recent years, KW had a ton of guts....few GM's would have gone out and put themselves on the line like that, and that's precisely why you keep KW and part ways with Guillen/Cora/Walker. It's easier to change the coaching staff than the entire roster.

 

(Note to Greg, yes, I know your feelings on Ozzie...lol...no need to defend him every time his managerial prowess is questioned, right?)

Edited May 19, 2010 by caulfield12

[Balta1701]

KW f'ed up, let's just admit it, going into both 09 an 2010. Let's be honest. Let's not blame KW's decisions on Ozzie either, as if that somehow exonerates him. I still think he's a #8-12 GM, and I'd MUCH rather keep him than Ozzie going forward....but he's made some very bad decisions with the likes of MacDougal, Teahen, Pierre and Linebrink (although we don't get to playoffs in 08 without him, is that worth paying him for 09-10-11, you tell me).

I think it's worth noting that the combined annual costs of all the screwups you mention are less than the annual cost of Alex Rios, for example.

 

If you're going to screw up and overpay somewhat for guys that fill holes that you have on your team, but you keep that cost down to a couple million per player per season, that really isn't going to be the reason why you lose if you have a $100 million payroll.

[caulfield12]

There's one other way to work it. Steal a piece or two with a couple of solid trades this year before the deadline to add to the list of Viciedo, Hudson, and Flowers, and then use the $15 million or so you have left to plug the remaining gaps.

 

Really, there's no getting around requirement 2 though.

 

 

But who do we have to trade that wouldn't hurt this year's ballclub, arguably?

 

That list is limited to possibly Jenks, Garcia, AJ (if Flowers can be the offensive force SOME project and not kill us defensively), Andruw Jones (assuming KW could find another hitter out there to replace him), JJ Putz, Nix, Castro, TMK and Vizquel.

 

The players we most need to trade in Pierre, Teahen and Liney are the 3 hardest to trade without just eating most of their contracts financially.

 

Trading Floyd, Beckham, Quentin or Ramirez is beyond insane.

 

I suppose you can make an argument to somehow trade Buehrle, Konerko, Danks, Peavy or Rios and get back 2-3-4 players (spreading the money out like we did coming into 2005)...that makes some sense.

 

But that would require Viciedo stepping in right now for Konerko, for example. Same thing with Flowers or Hudson, maybe you do it and cross your fingers they light on fire like Beckham and that Beckham also reverts to form. Something has to change, that's for sure. Either players or coaching staff.

 

FWIW, we'd need to get back a 3B and a #2 or leadoff hitter, IMO, along with a LHR reliever or just "general"quality arms for rotation/pen.

 

 

[greg775]

You are correct caufield. No need no more.

[Balta1701]

The players we most need to trade in Pierre, Teahen and Liney are the 3 hardest to trade without just eating most of their contracts financially.

Really, those are the 3 players you think we most need to trade?

 

But who do we have to trade that wouldn't hurt this year's ballclub, arguably?

At this point, I'm not sure why I should care. If they can't pull off a winning streak before June 13th, I definitely won't care about AJ being gone and replaced by flowers, and if they can't get anywhere close to the race by mid July, why should I be angry about trades that hurt this year's ballclub?