Unload...

[iamshack]

In regards to that first paragraph, I really can't stand pseudo insults like that. I believe in rebuilding because I don't believe in your opinion stated in the second paragraph. I do not think that this team is a small piece away from being a real contender.

Ok, I can respect that response. But what I want to see other than "trade away all of our valuable pieces for prospects" is some sort of long-term plan suggested.

 

What is your goal in rebuilding? How would you like the team/franchise to be built? What kind of pieces would you like to acquire? What kind of organizations win in this league? What have they built that we have not?

 

If you look at the recent history of championship teams in MLB, it becomes clear that they are teams built with a balance of a strong starting rotation, a solid bullpen, and a strong top and middle of the order on offense.

 

As far as I'm concerned, the bullpen is pretty much a matter of having a dependable closer and 1-2 decent setup men to start the season, then fortifying that during the season with whomever steps up from within the organization combined with acquiring 1-2 arms at the trade deadline. I don't feel that we need anything other than another LH to solidify our bullpen, and maybe shuffling the closer's role. But the arms are, for the most part, in place.

 

The starting rotation is also in place, as far as I am concerned. Peavy and Danks are probably our most dependable arms at this point, with Mark and Gavin struggling, but with a history behind them. Gavin has been a historically slow starter, while Mark has gone through periods of sustained struggles before. But to be completely honest, you're never going to be able to throw 4 arms out there that are really any more dependable and talented then these guys, unless you want to start pointing to the Braves' rotations of the early-mid 90's. Any rebuilding effort is MOST LIKELY not going to produce a stable of arms with any more potential and talent than what we already have there.

 

The offense is clearly an underwhelming facet at this point in the season, but as we have discussed, there are talented pieces in that lineup that are simply underperforming right now. I think it is simply difficult to make a solid argument that 3-4 of these hitters are going to continue to float around the mendoza line. It just doesn't happen with professional hitters, especially those with the talent these guys have.

 

I guess what I'm saying is I don't see a rebuilding effort yielding much better talent and potential than what we currently have in place. If I truly believed that this offensive core of Beckham, Quentin, Jones, Konerko, Ramirez, Rios, and AJ simply had no hope or no potential of hitting enough to win ballgames, I would concede and say overhaul the entire thing. But we have the arms in the rotation, we have the pen to hold leads, we have the talent there on offense - we just need the production to occur. And the production is ALWAYS the most difficult thing to predict.

 

The way I look at things is, if things go fairly well with this roster, do we have a chance to win the whole thing? In my mind, yes, we do. And that's really all one can ask for. If I didn't truly believe that, I would say blow it up.

[fathom]

In regards to that first paragraph, I really can't stand pseudo insults like that. I believe in rebuilding because I don't believe in your opinion stated in the second paragraph. I do not think that this team is a small piece away from being a real contender.

 

Well said, if Quentin doesn't turn his career around and Beckham can't start showing he's at least an average MLB player, this team is going nowhere the next few seasons.

Edited May 19, 2010 by fathom

[Milkman delivers]

Hell, I agree with shack that Kenny should wait a while before committing to a firesale (I'd say at least another 30 days). But it's silly to chide people who, after a full month and a half of bad baseball, see absolutely zero evidence that this team will play competitively and understand the realities of our farm system, FA status of key players, and future payroll constrictions.

 

Oh yeah, I'd have no problem with them waiting a little bit longer. They just have to make the decision before AJ's 10/5 rights kick in.

[BigSqwert]

Oh yeah, I'd have no problem with them waiting a little bit longer. They just have to make the decision before AJ's 10/5 rights kick in.

I've already made up my mind on AJ. He's a catcher that's getting older and producing less. We can do better than that. No need to pay him a s***load of money to stick around.

[fathom]

I've already made up my mind on AJ. He's a catcher that's getting older and producing less. We can do better than that. No need to pay him a s***load of money to stick around.

 

Agreed, he's been an amazing contributor for the Sox, but the time is right to go with new blood behind the plate and hope Flowers makes it so you don't have to sign another catcher this offseason.

[iamshack]

All one needs to do is look around at the talent on the rosters that are winning games right now. Truly look at the rosters and see if you can tell the difference in talent between who is playing well right now and who isn't. We can all sit here and try and be Colin Cowherd and explain why some teams are winning and some aren't, but the fact is, after 40 games you really can't explain everything. More time is needed.

 

Some teams can be explained...the Yankees and Phillies are just so talented from top to bottom. And their players are actually producing. But teams like the Nationals, Reds, Tigers, Marlins, Blue Jays, Padres, Rangers, A's, Giants....those teams have no more talent on their rosters than we do. And in many cases, they have less talent. And yes, their managers also make boneheaded decisions, so don't tell me the difference is OG either.

 

Sometimes baseball is just a funny game. And it takes a long, long time for the talent to win out as the most recognizable force of a ballclub. Say blow it up all you want, but IMHO, rebuilding will most likely not yield any better chance at competing for a World Championship than the roster we currently have, and many, many years down the road if so.

[iamshack]

Agreed, he's been an amazing contributor for the Sox, but the time is right to go with new blood behind the plate and hope Flowers makes it so you don't have to sign another catcher this offseason.

That's fine. But please, please, please don't tell me the date that AJ's 10/5 rights kick in is the date we decide the fate of this entire roster. That is simply not some point at which we can no longer turn back.

[fathom]

That's fine. But please, please, please don't tell me the date that AJ's 10/5 rights kick in is the date we decide the fate of this entire roster. That is simply not some point at which we can no longer turn back.

 

Fair enough

[scenario]

They just have to make the decision before AJ's 10/5 rights kick in.

 

Why?

 

It's not like we're not going to land a huge bounty by trading a guy in his walk year struggling to get north of Mendoza territory.

 

Much more likely IMO that he'll play out the remainder of his final contract year in Chicago.

Edited May 19, 2010 by scenario

[fathom]

Why?

 

It's not like we're not going to land a huge bounty by trading a guy in his walk year struggling to get north of Mendoza territory.

 

Much more likely IMO that he'll play out the remainder of his final contract year in Chicago.

 

It's more about saving almost 4 million dollars and creating ABs for Flowers. If AJP stays on the roster, he won't take too kindly to losing ABs to a young player.

[iamshack]

Still waiting for someone to address my question about those other rosters that are winning for such obvious reasons right now...

[WCSox]

The Sox have the starting rotation to win, but that's about it. Jenks is no longer dependable, and he'll be gone next year. Thornton will most likely leave as a FA in 2012. Putz isn't dependable and will be gone next year as well. Santos is the only long-term arm that I'm excited about. Going into next year, we'll have mediocre offensive talent at every position besides CF, 2B, SS, and RF. Even Pierre's "meh" bat will be gone in 2012. Signing PK to an extension would help at 1B/DH, but the number of holes needed to fill is daunting. And we currently don't have the disposable income or minor league talent to do it quickly. In other words, the days of "retooling on the fly" are coming to an end.

 

[fathom]

Still waiting for someone to address my question about those other rosters that are winning for such obvious reasons right now...

 

Well, Giants have far superior pitching to that of the Sox. I would also say it's silly to judge our roster in comparison to the NL with the lack of talent in that league. As for a team like the Rangers, they have a much better offense as well as making some good personnel decisions (ie: making Wilson a starter). A lot of the teams you mentioned have good minor league systems that have allowed them to replace struggling/injured players more efficiently than we have.

[Milkman delivers]

Ok, I can respect that response. But what I want to see other than "trade away all of our valuable pieces for prospects" is some sort of long-term plan suggested.

 

What is your goal in rebuilding? How would you like the team/franchise to be built? What kind of pieces would you like to acquire? What kind of organizations win in this league? What have they built that we have not?

 

If you look at the recent history of championship teams in MLB, it becomes clear that they are teams built with a balance of a strong starting rotation, a solid bullpen, and a strong top and middle of the order on offense.

 

As far as I'm concerned, the bullpen is pretty much a matter of having a dependable closer and 1-2 decent setup men to start the season, then fortifying that during the season with whomever steps up from within the organization combined with acquiring 1-2 arms at the trade deadline. I don't feel that we need anything other than another LH to solidify our bullpen, and maybe shuffling the closer's role. But the arms are, for the most part, in place.

 

The starting rotation is also in place, as far as I am concerned. Peavy and Danks are probably our most dependable arms at this point, with Mark and Gavin struggling, but with a history behind them. Gavin has been a historically slow starter, while Mark has gone through periods of sustained struggles before. But to be completely honest, you're never going to be able to throw 4 arms out there that are really any more dependable and talented then these guys, unless you want to start pointing to the Braves' rotations of the early-mid 90's. Any rebuilding effort is MOST LIKELY not going to produce a stable of arms with any more potential and talent than what we already have there.

 

The offense is clearly an underwhelming facet at this point in the season, but as we have discussed, there are talented pieces in that lineup that are simply underperforming right now. I think it is simply difficult to make a solid argument that 3-4 of these hitters are going to continue to float around the mendoza line. It just doesn't happen with professional hitters, especially those with the talent these guys have.

 

I guess what I'm saying is I don't see a rebuilding effort yielding much better talent and potential than what we currently have in place. If I truly believed that this offensive core of Beckham, Quentin, Jones, Konerko, Ramirez, Rios, and AJ simply had no hope or no potential of hitting enough to win ballgames, I would concede and say overhaul the entire thing. But we have the arms in the rotation, we have the pen to hold leads, we have the talent there on offense - we just need the production to occur. And the production is ALWAYS the most difficult thing to predict.

 

The way I look at things is, if things go fairly well with this roster, do we have a chance to win the whole thing? In my mind, yes, we do. And that's really all one can ask for. If I didn't truly believe that, I would say blow it up.

 

I see where you find the positives. The rotation is something special (on paper, I'll note due to their performances so far) and it is unlikely that we'll see another like it on this team for a while. But when it comes to our bullpen and offense, the story is different. I don't find our bullpen to be too good. There's one great reliever (Thornton), one who might be great (Santos) , a couple decent (Putz/Peña), and a few terrible ones (Williams/Linebrink/Jenks). Our offense is filled with guys who are under-performing. It's certainly reasonable to think that they won't continue to play nearly as badly as they have. Konerko and AJ are probably gone at the end of the year (along with guys like Vizquel and Kotsay, who suck). Beckham will likely become a premier regular and contribute to this team for years, but I don't think that's the case with a lot of the other guys. I personally don't think Quentin will ever be the player he was in 2008, but rather one of those "what could have been" guys. I have no way of knowing this for sure, of course, but he's looking more and more like a walking injury. Ramirez will apparently take off the first two months of every year and continue to have ADHD in the field. Teahen...I don't know what to say...I have no idea why KW signed him to an immediate 3-year deal. He's a butcher in the field and a mediocre player with the highest potential of being an adequate defender and a slightly above average hitter. Jones, to me, is a pure one-year signing. If he does well, he'll use that season to get himself a nice, longer deal at a much higher price. If he fails and/or gets hurt (that's what I believe will eventually happen), then it was worth the risk for the Sox. Rios is another guy I believe in, and I think he can be a great player for us. Pierre brings some positives, and he is definitely heating up, but he's certainly not someone you depend on for the future and I would much prefer we didn't have him for another year.

 

With the franchise almost certain to cut payroll next year and our situation likely needing us to replace a good amount of players, I don't think we can really put ourselves in any position to seriously compete. It's a shame to waste such talented starters, but it might be something we have to accept (and we can get some nice pieces by trading a few of the current players). We need to make changes in drafting and signing guys from overseas, developing the talent that we acquire, and definitely the coaching.

[fathom]

The Sox have the starting rotation to win, but that's about it. Jenks is no longer dependable, and he'll be gone next year. Thornton will most likely leave as a FA in 2012. Putz isn't dependable and will be gone next year as well. Santos is the only long-term arm that I'm excited about. Going into next year, we'll have mediocre offensive talent at every position besides CF, 2B, SS, and RF. Even Pierre's "meh" bat will be gone in 2012. Signing PK to an extension would help at 1B/DH, but the number of holes needed to fill is daunting. And we currently don't have the disposable income or minor league talent to do it quickly. In other words, the days of "retooling on the fly" are coming to an end.

 

Why is Thornton likely to leave? Also, count me out with regards to signing Konerko to an extension. Let him go play on the west coast like he wants to.

[Milkman delivers]

I've already made up my mind on AJ. He's a catcher that's getting older and producing less. We can do better than that. No need to pay him a s***load of money to stick around.

 

I agree. I'm just saying that I have no problem with the organization waiting to see if the team "puts it together" before then. When you decide to drop AJ, that's when you should decide to drop all of the excess baggage.

 

Why?

 

It's not like we're not going to land a huge bounty by trading a guy in his walk year struggling to get north of Mendoza territory.

 

Much more likely IMO that he'll play out the remainder of his final contract year in Chicago.

 

To save money, and anything else is gravy.

[hogan873]

Still waiting for someone to address my question about those other rosters that are winning for such obvious reasons right now...

Okay, I'll take a shot at it. You're right that there's no quick answer. There are rosters out there with less talent (on paper) that are playing much better than the Sox right now. We keep saying that the trend of so many hitters playing below their career averages and/or their potential. But with each passing day and each staggeringly ugly loss, we have to start considering the fact that it's just going to be a bad year. I keep hoping that AJ, Quentin, and Alexei will turn it around, and although yesterday's game gave us a glimmer of hope, I'm starting to wonder if they will.

[Milkman delivers]

The Sox have the starting rotation to win, but that's about it. Jenks is no longer dependable, and he'll be gone next year. Thornton will most likely leave as a FA in 2012. Putz isn't dependable and will be gone next year as well. Santos is the only long-term arm that I'm excited about. Going into next year, we'll have mediocre offensive talent at every position besides CF, 2B, SS, and RF. Even Pierre's "meh" bat will be gone in 2012. Signing PK to an extension would help at 1B/DH, but the number of holes needed to fill is daunting. And we currently don't have the disposable income or minor league talent to do it quickly. In other words, the days of "retooling on the fly" are coming to an end.

 

Damn it, you beat me to it. And you were clearer and more concise. You rotten...

[iamshack]

Guess what guys? EVERY team outside of the Yankees/Red Sox and MAYBE the Rays has these kinds of questions to answer. These kind of holes to fill. These kind of problems that lie ahead in the not-so-distant future. EVERY darn one of them!

 

Look at the bullpens around the league. They all have 2-3 good arms and 3-4 what-ifs.

 

Almost every offense has players that will be leaving via FA or guys that may or may not perform to what they have in the past, or to what their pedigree might suggest.

 

The only thing a GM can do is put a roster together that has a reasonable potential at some point in the near future to possibly win a World Series. He can't play the games for them. He can't prevent them from being injured. He can't will them to produce at or above career norms. All he can do is go off what they have done in the past, or what his scouts firmly believe he will do in the near future.

 

I believe Kenny has done that with as much or more skill than just about any other GM in his tenure. Nearly every season, with the exception of 07' I guess, Kenny has put together a team that had the reasonable potential to be a playoff-caliber team.

 

Take a look around at your organizations with the best farm systems, and point out to me those that have experienced sustained success from the pieces coming out of their system. The Rays?

 

I'm certainly not saying a good farm system is a negative thing, absolutely not. But it's not necessarily such an answer that suggests any more competitive certainty than the method we currently have been employing.

[Buehrlesque]

With what is happening in Florida with Fredi Gonzalez and Hanley Ramirez, I wonder if Ozzie is going to be their manager in 2011.

 

Think it would be the best fit for him in terms of his manging style being more suited to the NL obviously.

How about trading Ozzie straight up for Fredi as a swap of managers? Loria doesn't seem to be a huge Fredi fan and, besides, if it turns into a "It's Him or Me" situation, the Marlins are obviously going to choose Hanley. Fredi, meanwhile, is still a darn good manager.

[Milkman delivers]

Guess what guys? EVERY team outside of the Yankees/Red Sox and MAYBE the Rays has these kinds of questions to answer. These kind of holes to fill. These kind of problems that lie ahead in the not-so-distant future. EVERY darn one of them!

 

Look at the bullpens around the league. They all have 2-3 good arms and 3-4 what-ifs. We have 1 good arm and a bunch of what-ifs.

 

Almost every offense has players that will be leaving via FA or guys that may or may not perform to what they have in the past, or to what their pedigree might suggest.

 

The only thing a GM can do is put a roster together that has a reasonable potential at some point in the near future to possibly win a World Series. He can't play the games for them. He can't prevent them from being injured. He can't will them to produce at or above career norms. All he can do is go off what they have done in the past, or what his scouts firmly believe he will do in the near future.

 

I believe Kenny has done that with as much or more skill than just about any other GM in his tenure. Nearly every season, with the exception of 07' I guess, Kenny has put together a team that had the reasonable potential to be a playoff-caliber team. I also believe KW has done a pretty good job, which is why I think the coaching staff should go long before him.

 

Take a look around at your organizations with the best farm systems, and point out to me those that have experienced sustained success from the pieces coming out of their system. The Rays? Off of the top of my head, you can also add the Twins, Red Sox, Angels, and Phillies

 

I'm certainly not saying a good farm system is a negative thing, absolutely not. But it's not necessarily such an answer that suggests any more competitive certainty than the method we currently have been employing.

 

[thedoctor]

i'm not against unloading, particularly because i do think that there are seasons where at least privately you acknowledge that you are not going to contend. i'd imagine that there are many, many gms who go into a season clearly understanding that they do not have a playoff team and don't intend to pursue one.

 

so if you unload with the thought of stepping back so you can step forward, that's ok in my estimation. and has been previously noted, now might be the time since it's clear that a significant roster overhaul is imminent any way. i wouldn't do it today because it is still early, but give it another week or two and then see where you were at.

 

at the same time, i'm not sure the white sox are positioned to go into a major rebuilding mode. the team needs the casual fans and those folks only come out to the park when there is at least the glimmer of a winner. as long as the team budget is tied closely to attendance, it's difficult to imagine a scenario where you embark on an extended rebuilding plan. i'm not sure how smart that would be.

 

 

 

 

 

[iamshack]

We have 1 good bullpen arm? Ok, whatever.

 

As for your teams that have sustained a lot of success because of their farm system, I really fail to see how one could argue that the method preferred by the Twins and Angels has created any more success than the model we have employed.

 

Name for me all the Angels' farmhands that have contributed to their major league success.

 

The Twins apparently cannot build dominant rotations, which is why they never win playoff series'.

 

The Phillies are definitely a team that has achieved success, however, I would argue that we are in the "golden age" of Phillies baseball right now, which has come about due to a combination of luck, skill, a new stadium, etc, rather than anyone being able to point to them and say "that is an example of a team that has been built from within."

 

Let me ask you this, Milkman, who have been the two biggest culprits in our offense underperforming thus far, in your eyes?

[iamshack]

i'm not against unloading, particularly because i do think that there are seasons where at least privately you acknowledge that you are not going to contend. i'd imagine that there are many, many gms who go into a season clearly understanding that they do not have a playoff team and don't intend to pursue one.

 

so if you unload with the thought of stepping back so you can step forward, that's ok in my estimation. and has been previously noted, now might be the time since it's clear that a significant roster overhaul is imminent any way. i wouldn't do it today because it is still early, but give it another week or two and then see where you were at.

 

at the same time, i'm not sure the white sox are positioned to go into a major rebuilding mode. the team needs the casual fans and those folks only come out to the park when there is at least the glimmer of a winner. as long as the team budget is tied closely to attendance, it's difficult to imagine a scenario where you embark on an extended rebuilding plan. i'm not sure how smart that would be.

Ok, so let me ask you this. Does one underwhelming season justify destroying a potentially outstanding core for the sake of rebuilding?

[WCSox]

I'm certainly not saying a good farm system is a negative thing, absolutely not.

 

A good farm system is a necessary thing at this point because (1) the Sox lack young hitting talent and (2) don't have the money to acquire a significant number of veterans this winter via free agency. I'll go a step beyond that and say that all teams need decent farm systems to be competitive over the long run.

 

But it's not necessarily such an answer that suggests any more competitive certainty than the method we currently have been employing.

 

The method that we currently have been employing is completely unsustainable. We can't continue to rely on dealing good-to-mediocre prospects for big-contract veterans. This is especially the case when these veterans don't translate into a winning team. Sox fans are notorious for staying at home when a bad/mediocre product is on the field. Therefore, a $100M roster that wins 70-80 games isn't going to cut it. That may work with the Cubs, but not with this franchise.

 

The bottom line is that it's been a nice run, but that run is coming to an end. They either compete this year, or the dismantling will begin. Beginning this winter, there won't be enough productive veterans to hide these holes, there aren't enough young players ready to step up yet to fill them, and there isn't enough disposable cash on hand to fill them with more veterans. It's likely going to be 1999 again soon.