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QUOTE (bmags @ Dec 7, 2011 -> 12:20 PM)
He's also a very good passer, is only 26, with a good injury history and has gotten better every year.

 

Um, no he hasn't. Last year he put up 14-9 on a better field goal percentage and a much higher PER, which still isn't a max-deal type big man unless you're really desperate. People also still worry about his weight, which was a huge issue when he first came into the league.

 

Expecting Gasol to give you elite production is a good way to win 30 games.

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In a smaller sample size with less minutes. You are just ignoring the point that we have a league where tyson chandler was given 6 for 64 when he was injury prone and has no real offensive game. Centers get paid a lot of money. Add to that teams looking to add size, an increased salary floor, and one of the few centers with an offensive game and knees and a back that haven't broken every season, and you will see a team pay him a lot.

 

Remember ... rudy gay is making the maximum.

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QUOTE (bmags @ Dec 7, 2011 -> 12:39 PM)
In a smaller sample size with less minutes. You are just ignoring the point that we have a league where tyson chandler was given 6 for 64 when he was injury prone and has no real offensive game. Centers get paid a lot of money. Add to that teams looking to add size, an increased salary floor, and one of the few centers with an offensive game and knees and a back that haven't broken every season, and you will see a team pay him a lot.

 

Remember ... rudy gay is making the maximum.

 

You really seem to like the "this guy is overpaid so Gasol should be even more overpaid" argument, and for some reason you seem to like bringing up good perimeter players that can score a lot more in comparisons too.

 

$11 million is a far cry from the $16 million+ average that you're giving Gasol. Tyson is also a much better rebounder and defender than Gasol as he proved this year. That $11 million is probably what Gasol is "worth". Paying a guy like him more than that is why we just had a lockout (not that it seems to have mattered).

 

There are at least a dozen big men that can give you as much or more than Gasol does, probably more. Giving non-elite players a max contract is how you hurt you get stuck in NBA hell (not good enough to contend but too good to significantly improve through the draft).

 

Also, 69 games is still a pretty damn big sample size, and he still played about 32 MPG. PER is also a rate stat, which wouldn't be affected.

Edited by ZoomSlowik
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QUOTE (bmags @ Dec 7, 2011 -> 12:20 PM)
He's also a very good passer, is only 26, with a good injury history and has gotten better every year.

What on Earth are you talking about. He hasn't remotely "gotten better every year", dude. 2010-2011 was a huge regression, and his rates last year were worse than that of his rookie year.

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QUOTE (ZoomSlowik @ Dec 7, 2011 -> 07:59 PM)
You really seem to like the "this guy is overpaid so Gasol should be even more overpaid" argument, and for some reason you seem to like bringing up good perimeter players that can score a lot more in comparisons too.

 

$11 million is a far cry from the $16 million+ average that you're giving Gasol. Tyson is also a much better rebounder and defender than Gasol as he proved this year. That $11 million is probably what Gasol is "worth". Paying a guy like him more than that is why we just had a lockout (not that it seems to have mattered).

 

There are at least a dozen big men that can give you as much or more than Gasol does, probably more. Giving non-elite players a max contract is how you hurt your team.

 

Also, 69 games is still a pretty damn big sample size, and he still played about 32 MPG (roughly normal for big men). PER is also a rate stat, which wouldn't be affected.

 

I'm following the non-fantasy land argument. The market sets the rate, and the market is going to go after these players. And the premise of the article was that there is a center bubble, that centers are getting more money than they already have. If there is a bidding war for centers, what do you think will happen in the NBA, with some owners that want to win now? Do you really think an owner that wants to win now won't pay big money to get the best center available, can you ever think of examples of owners paying more than players are worth? Gasol is by far the best option. No s*** that Tyson Chandler is a great defensive player, but he's also an injury prone defensive-only player. He can get alley-oops. He can get a put back. He cannot do anything else offensively. And he's getting paid a lot of money for one side of the court.

 

Now you have a center with a legitimate all-around offensive game and good D that's 7'1", young and has stayed remarkably healthy for a center. And he's a free agent. And he's a center (x3). If all centers are getting a higher rate because of the rarity of their skills, then the best center in a market run by billionaire fans is going to get paid, and paid well.

 

 

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QUOTE (bmags @ Dec 7, 2011 -> 01:21 PM)
I'm following the non-fantasy land argument. The market sets the rate, and the market is going to go after these players. And the premise of the article was that there is a center bubble, that centers are getting more money than they already have. If there is a bidding war for centers, what do you think will happen in the NBA, with some owners that want to win now? Do you really think an owner that wants to win now won't pay big money to get the best center available, can you ever think of examples of owners paying more than players are worth? Gasol is by far the best option. No s*** that Tyson Chandler is a great defensive player, but he's also an injury prone defensive-only player. He can get alley-oops. He can get a put back. He cannot do anything else offensively. And he's getting paid a lot of money for one side of the court.

 

Now you have a center with a legitimate all-around offensive game and good D that's 7'1", young and has stayed remarkably healthy for a center. And he's a free agent. And he's a center (x3). If all centers are getting a higher rate because of the rarity of their skills, then the best center in a market run by billionaire fans is going to get paid, and paid well.

 

The premise of the article is predicting things that haven't happened yet, so its validity is highly questionable.

 

This center with "a legitimate all-around offensive game" also scored a whopping 1.6 more points than Chandler last year in more minutes. He's only been in the league for three years so that's not much of a history of being "remarkably healthy". And "center" has become a highly flexible term when guys like Amare and Andrea Bargnani are playing there. You could also argue fairly convincingly that Nene is just as good as Gasol, so it's not a "Gasol or nothing" proposition.

 

Let's also keep in mind that a max offer to Gasol is 4-73. Yeah, that's $18.575 million a year on average.

 

I can also point to a handful of big men that are paid significantly less than the max that are superior to Gasol. Guys like Horford, Aldridge and Noah. Admittedly they signed extensions which removes the "market value" factor a bit.

 

You're also missing the point on what I was ranting about. He may or may not get it depending on the whims of inept management. I'm arguing Simmons' "properly paid" comment at the end of the article. If he does get it he'll be highly overpaid, not properly paid.

Edited by ZoomSlowik
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QUOTE (bmags @ Dec 7, 2011 -> 01:54 PM)
I'm not even going to read beyond this ridiculous sentence.

 

What exactly is ridiculous about it? The idea that just because the great Bill Simmons says that Marc Gasol is worth/is going to get a max contract doesn't mean it's absolutely going to happen and not a stupid idea at all?

Edited by ZoomSlowik
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QUOTE (ZoomSlowik @ Dec 7, 2011 -> 07:32 PM)
The premise of the article is predicting things that haven't happened yet, so its validity is highly questionable.

 

This center with "a legitimate all-around offensive game" also scored a whopping 1.6 more points than Chandler last year in more minutes. He's only been in the league for three years so that's not much of a history of being "remarkably healthy". And "center" has become a highly flexible term when guys like Amare and Andrea Bargnani are playing there. You could also argue fairly convincingly that Nene is just as good as Gasol, so it's not a "Gasol or nothing" proposition.

 

Let's also keep in mind that a max offer to Gasol is 4-73. Yeah, that's $18.575 million a year on average.

 

2. Marc Gasol

Prediction: Re-signs with Memphis (five years, $78 million)

Verdict: PROPERLY PAID

 

This is the estimation you are all gaffawing about.

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QUOTE (ZoomSlowik @ Dec 7, 2011 -> 08:00 PM)
What exactly is ridiculous about it? The idea that just because the great Bill Simmons says that Marc Gasol is worth/is going to get a max contract doesn't mean it's absolutely going to happen and not a stupid idea at all?

 

No, because it was a pointless statement. Are all of your estimations of contracts worthless, because they are predictions? Should we stick to consistently speaking about what has happened, as to avoid the highly dubious nature of speaking about the future? I think we should make rules about talking about the bulls upcoming season, lest we start bordering on conjecture.

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QUOTE (bmags @ Dec 7, 2011 -> 02:04 PM)
No, because it was a pointless statement. Are all of your estimations of contracts worthless, because they are predictions? Should we stick to consistently speaking about what has happened, as to avoid the highly dubious nature of speaking about the future? I think we should make rules about talking about the bulls upcoming season, lest we start bordering on conjecture.

 

I didn't say anything like that.

 

Look at the post I was responding to again. You went on a rant about the state of the center position, the current free agent market and Gasol that was very similar to what Simmons wrote in the article. You made it sound like all of these things are indisputable facts when they're not. It's an opinion piece that may or may not end up being any more valid than anything you or I have written.

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QUOTE (ZoomSlowik @ Dec 7, 2011 -> 09:16 PM)
I didn't say anything like that.

 

Look at the post I was responding to again. You went on a rant about the state of the center position, the current free agent market and Gasol that was very similar to what Simmons wrote in the article. You made it sound like all of these things are indisputable facts when they're not. It's an opinion piece that may or may not end up being any more valid than anything you or I have written.

 

Who cares?

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I'm not terribly afraid of Shane Battier in Miami. He's a good but not great shooter with no other offensive skills and is strictly a small forward. They already had Mike Miller as a backup wing player too whenever he gets healthy. I guess that means Wade is the PG, Miller at the 2 and Battier as a backup SF/fill-in for when Lebron plays the 4?

 

They'll have to get a bit more creative with their lineups to use him a lot considering they have few PG options and no legitimate centers. I'd have been a lot more worried if they picked up a solid option at one of those positions.

 

 

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