June Catch All White Sox Thread

[justBLAZE]

Omer Munoz replacing Baines.

[CaliSoxFanViaSWside]

Floyd was going to turn it around anyhow.

 

He does this crap every year, he posts a super inflated ERA due to terrible luck (.369 BABIP),but his peripherals are great (with the exception of 2008, he was exceptionally lucky that year).

 

Before last night's game, his FIP was 4.02, after that start, it's down to 3.8, that of a very good pitcher. He's now second in pitching WAR on the team next to John Danks.

 

Everybody in the rotation with the exception of Freddy Garcia has a FIP below 5, even Peavy and Buehrle.

 

There's been a lot of bad luck for our pitchers, however, we're seeing a reversal of that right now and it will probably continue.

I know you like to throw that scientific billy beane stuff around but that is just nonsense. You make your own luck when you throw hanging curves and fastball right down the middle of the plate . That high BABIP stuff is from throwing bad pitches not having terrible luck.

[Greg Hibbard]

I honestly can't figure out whether being 5 games under .500 with a .244 team batting average, a 1.39 team WHIP and a 4.60 team ERA means the team is way good despite their statistics or way bad despite their record.

[chw42]

I know you like to throw that scientific billy beane stuff around but that is just nonsense. You make your own luck when you throw hanging curves and fastball right down the middle of the plate . That high BABIP stuff is from throwing bad pitches not having terrible luck.

 

And you know this, because?

 

The reason why things like FIP and BABIP have value in player evaluation is because the pitcher doesn't have a great amount of control on balls hit in play. This was concluded by Voros McCracken through a lot of research (I think 92% of balls hit in play are not the direct responsibility of the pitcher). Yes, you can hang a curveball and get hit hard, but you can also dot the corner with a fastball and get hit hard.

 

Does Gavin just start getting better all of a sudden in June because he makes his own luck? Or is it just the luck table turning around from two months of absolute disaster? It's not like he's Alexei and needs to pitch in warm weather to succeed.

 

 

 

 

[CaliSoxFanViaSWside]

And you know this, because?

 

The reason why things like FIP and BABIP have value in player evaluation is because the pitcher doesn't have a great amount of control on balls hit in play. This was concluded by Voros McCracken through a lot of research (I think 92% of balls hit in play are not the direct responsibility of the pitcher). Yes, you can hang a curveball and get hit hard, but you can also dot the corner with a fastball and get hit hard.

 

Does Gavin just start getting better all of a sudden in June because he makes his own luck? Or is it just the luck table turning around from two months of absolute disaster? It's not like he's Alexei and needs to pitch in warm weather to succeed.

I know this because its baseball . Its not rocket science. You throw the ball down the middle of plate it gets ripped resulting in a high BA ,BABIP and all sorts of good things for the hitters. You make good pitches and it results in lousy stats for the hitter and good stats for the pitcher. It's been that way for over 100 yrs. and it will continue that way. And yes Gavin makes his own luck because he just pitches better later weather its his curve biting more or hitting his spots .Hitters hit bad pitches harder and hit good pitches worse. It's not luck its talent or lack thereof. You sound like you never played the game but are a big fan of math .

Edited June 16, 2010 by CaliSoxFanViaSWside

[chw42]

I know this because its baseball . Its not rocket science. You throw the ball down the middle of plate it gets ripped resulting in a high BA ,BABIP and all sorts of good things for the hitters. You make good pitches and it results in lousy stats for the hitter and good stats for the pitcher. It's been that way for over 100 yrs. and it will continue that way. And yes Gavin makes his own luck because he just pitches better later weather its his curve biting more or hitting his spots .Hitters hit bad pitches harder and hit good pitches worse. It's not luck its talent or lack thereof. You sound like you never played the game but are a big fan of math .

 

I hate math, you think I like studying calculus and differential equations?

 

And I have played the game, all the way up my sophomore year of high school. Now I just play once in a while.

 

I know which pitches are good and which aren't. Obviously, the hangers and elevated pitches usually go for home runs (if the hitter is good), which BABIP takes out of the equation and FIP accounts for.

 

So FIP will reflect which pitchers are bad, because they allow walks and give up home runs. Very rarely are home runs by luck, if they are xFIP tends to straighten that luck out.

 

So with a combination of FIP, BABIP, and some further analysis you can evaluate a pitcher's luck.

 

Take Gavin Floyd for example. He has a current FIP of 3.80, nearly two runs below his ERA. He has this FIP because his K rate is actually better than what it was last year and his walks have stayed put. In addition, he's also cut down his amount of home runs given up.

 

Now you look at his BABIP of .355. Very high for the peripherals Floyd has.

 

Looking at his batted ball percentages, he has given up less line drives (by almost 3%, which comes out to 7 line drives so far), more ground balls and slightly less fly balls.

 

So Floyd has allowed less balls in play that go for a .750 average and more balls in play that go for a .200 average.

 

So that should mean his BABIP is low right?

 

No. And this is when luck comes into play.

 

You talking about how Floyd has given up a lot of big hits on hard hit balls doesn't make sense given what I just put up. Hard hit balls go for line drives and hard hit fly balls. They don't turn into grounders.

 

The fact that Floyd has given up more ground balls, which have substituted line drives in this case (a .550 average discrepancy) and has a .355 BABIP simply means that Floyd has been very unlucky.

 

This isn't math, it's just playing a game of logic.

Edited June 16, 2010 by chw42

[greg775]

Your what hurts? Down playing the potential and ability of this team seems like an easy way to take any pressure off of Ozzie.

 

We will not sweep this series. No way. The White Sox do not sweep series.

 

I don't need to take pressure off Ozzie. He's not going anywhere. Besides he's rich and not sharing any of his money with me. I simply am an Ozzie fan. Fans who want him gone are dreaming. He will leave when Jerry says so and that is never. He's a badass and doesn't need anybody trying to take pressure off him. When he leaves someday he will leave kicking and screaming.

Edited June 16, 2010 by greg775

[chw42]

We will not sweep this series. No way. The White Sox do not sweep series.

 

I don't need to take pressure off Ozzie. He's not going anywhere. Besides he's rich and not sharing any of his money with me. I simply am an Ozzie fan. Fans who want him gone are dreaming. He will leave when Jerry says so and that is never. He's a badass and doesn't need anybody trying to take pressure off him. When he leaves someday he will leave kicking and screaming.

 

So he is bad and he is an ass, both of those definitely describe Ozzie.

 

And why can't we sweep the Pirates...?

 

 

[spiderman]

So he is bad and he is an ass, both of those definitely describe Ozzie.

 

And why can't we sweep the Pirates...?

 

I think we'll have a game coming up very soon where we can't score.

[justBLAZE]

Iwamura was DFA'd today.

 

Is there gonna be game thread? Gonzales has the lineup for tonight's game.

[NorthSideSox72]

Iwamura was DFA'd today.

 

Is there gonna be game thread? Gonzales has the lineup for tonight's game.

Whomever started yesterday's thread has privilege, at least until say 6pm.

 

Meantime, you can post the lineup here if you'd like.

 

[Kalapse]

Whomever started yesterday's thread has privilege, at least until say 6pm.

 

Meantime, you can post the lineup here if you'd like.

Game starts at 6 so I'd say they have until 5 to get it up there.

[justBLAZE]

Pierre LF, Ramirez SS, Rios CF, Konerko 1B, Quentin RF, Pierzynski C, Beckham 2B, Nix 3B, Danks P

 

I wouldn't want to break the mojo, I'm sure SSI will make a thread by game time.

[Brian]

Hope Pedro ALvarez doesn't start his major league career with a hot streak.

[NorthSideSox72]

Game starts at 6 so I'd say they have until 5 to get it up there.

Stupid east coast games.

 

[ChiSox_Sonix]

Stupid east coast games.

 

hahaha I love the east coast games

[Kalapse]

Oh goodie:

 

Cowley: Peavy has "some things with his arm" said Oz. 2 minutes ago via UberTwitter

 

Gonzalez: Buehrle might pitch thursday, floyd friday and peavy moved to saturday 2 minutes ago via mobile web

[chw42]

Damn Jake Peavy and his arm issues.

[southsider2k5]

Iwamura was DFA'd today.

 

Is there gonna be game thread? Gonzales has the lineup for tonight's game.

 

What kind of contract does he have left? I always liked the guy, but when he when to the Pirates, the wheels fell off.

[SoxPride56]

What kind of contract does he have left? I always liked the guy, but when he when to the Pirates, the wheels fell off.

 

 

Also, wasn't he a 3B before Longoria came aboard?

[Milkman delivers]

I know this because its baseball . Its not rocket science. You throw the ball down the middle of plate it gets ripped resulting in a high BA ,BABIP and all sorts of good things for the hitters. You make good pitches and it results in lousy stats for the hitter and good stats for the pitcher. It's been that way for over 100 yrs. and it will continue that way. And yes Gavin makes his own luck because he just pitches better later weather its his curve biting more or hitting his spots .Hitters hit bad pitches harder and hit good pitches worse. It's not luck its talent or lack thereof. You sound like you never played the game but are a big fan of math .

 

And you sound like Ozzie.

[fathom]

What kind of contract does he have left? I always liked the guy, but when he when to the Pirates, the wheels fell off.

 

What makes Ichiro amazing is that he avoided the absolute burn out that so many Japanese players have in the majors. Guys like Shingo, Iguchi, that Mariners closer, etc. have all faded so fast, just like Iwamura has.

[ChiliIrishHammock24]

Chris Rose was just interviewing Ryan Theriot vs. Skype on his show "Cheap Seats", and he said AJ was on his way over. I guess Theriot and AJ are pretty good friends and live down the street from eachother. AJ left something at his house and was coming back to grab it. Theriot says "Here is Mr. 10-and-5 right here". He made it seem like AJ had been really stressing all weekend about that is relieved he made it to Monday. I wonder if this means he would veto a trade unless he really went to a team he wanted to.

[justBLAZE]

Chris Rose was just interviewing Ryan Theriot vs. Skype on his show "Cheap Seats", and he said AJ was on his way over. I guess Theriot and AJ are pretty good friends and live down the street from eachother. AJ left something at his house and was coming back to grab it. Theriot says "Here is Mr. 10-and-5 right here". He made it seem like AJ had been really stressing all weekend about that is relieved he made it to Monday. I wonder if this means he would veto a trade unless he really went to a team he wanted to.

 

I would never think those two are friends.

 

And yes that's exactly what it means.

Edited June 17, 2010 by justBLAZE

[T R U]

CQ is on pace for 33 doubles, 22 HRs, and 96 RBI all while hitting .207

 

If Juan Pierre was hitting over .300, I think he would have 40 or so steals right now.. but from what I am looking at, since May 1st Pierre is hitting about .275 with an OBP over .350 which isn't too bad

Edited June 17, 2010 by T R U