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We've traded with the D-Backs for Vazquez and then the Brandon Allen/Pena move, any others?

 

Difficult position for KW...go for broke with Fielder/Dunn or take the safer choice, but one who probably doesn't put you over the top in LaRoche.

 

I think they'll be very hesitant to remove Kotsay and especially Pierre when the team is winning.

 

 

 

 

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QUOTE (caulfield12 @ Jun 27, 2010 -> 03:23 PM)
We've traded with the D-Backs for Vazquez and then the Brandon Allen/Pena move, any others?

 

Difficult position for KW...go for broke with Fielder/Dunn or take the safer choice, but one who probably doesn't put you over the top in LaRoche.

 

I think they'll be very hesitant to remove Kotsay and especially Pierre when the team is winning.

 

You're not going to remove either of those guys. Lillibridge will probably get sent down or Jones will get DFA'd.

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QUOTE (caulfield12 @ Jun 27, 2010 -> 03:23 PM)
We've traded with the D-Backs for Vazquez and then the Brandon Allen/Pena move, any others?

 

Difficult position for KW...go for broke with Fielder/Dunn or take the safer choice, but one who probably doesn't put you over the top in LaRoche.

 

I think they'll be very hesitant to remove Kotsay and especially Pierre when the team is winning.

 

Quentin?

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Yes, CQ for Chris Carter. So that's 3 moves in 5 years, pretty good track record. We also had the common training camp together for many years in Tucson and picked up the scrappy Alex Cintron.

 

The main question, though, is if Hinch and Byrnes keep their jobs all the way through the end of the season.

Edited by caulfield12
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QUOTE (chw42 @ Jun 27, 2010 -> 12:55 PM)
He's the almost the same exact pitcher he was last year. That 4.65 ERA is due to a .342 BABIP.

 

 

maybe he's still the same pitcher as last season, that only means he will falter in the second half just like the previous years, and a switch from NL west to the AL especially pitching in the Cell only makes matters worse. and would we really want to pay top prospects for him when we have hudson on the horizon and we are more in need of a bat?

 

 

What do you guys think we could use the $1 million from the BP cup for? (assuming it's assigned to the team immediately.) perhaps picking somebody up from the waivers? or use it to help pay for half of LaRoche's salary at $2.25 mil?

Edited by thxfrthmmrs
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Kotsay splits

April 37 2 4 0 0 1 2 4 0 2 0 0 .108 .195 .189 .384

May 69 10 18 3 0 4 10 10 0 6 1 1 .261 .354 .478 .832

June 46 4 10 3 0 1 4 9 0 8 0 1 .217 .345 .348 .693

Last 7 Days 15 0 4 3 0 0 0 3 0 3 0 0 .267 .389 .467 .856

Pre All-Star 152 16 32 6 0 6 16 23 0 16 1 2 .211 .314 .368 .682

Home 80 7 16 3 0 4 9 12 0 10 0 0 .200 .304 .388 .692

Away 72 9 16 3 0 2 7 11 0 6 1 2 .222 .325 .347 .672

 

 

LaRoche splits

April 71 16 21 7 0 4 17 11 0 19 0 0 .296 .390 .563 .953

May 95 16 24 7 1 3 16 13 1 30 0 0 .253 .345 .442 .787

June 84 7 19 3 0 4 18 8 1 27 0 0 .226 .301 .405 .706

Last 7 Days 21 3 4 0 0 2 9 2 0 6 0 0 .190 .261 .476 .737

Pre All-Star 250 39 64 17 1 11 51 32 2 76 0 0 .256 .344 .464 .808

Home 131 20 34 9 0 7 34 17 0 39 0 0 .260 .342 .489 .831

Away 119 19 30 8 1 4 17 15 2 37 0 0 .252 .346 .437 .783

 

 

***************

LaRoche is better than Kotsay, but not consistently, and not by a huge margin. Throw out April for both guys, and I bet they are roughly equal.

 

So let's get real. Adam LaRoche is not the difference maker between the Sox winning or losing the AL Central.

 

Don't get me wrong. The Sox need to improve their offense. They will, as Quentin, Ramirez, AJ, Pierre, and Beckham move closer to career norms. And they could also use a power lefty. But drooling over the likes of Adam LaRoche just seems silly to me.

 

Here's a guy who would make a difference, though he and his team are scuffling:

April 80 14 18 5 1 4 9 16 1 25 0 0 .225 .361 .463 .824

May 99 15 31 10 1 6 18 12 2 30 0 0 .313 .395 .616 1.011

June 87 14 25 7 0 7 20 7 0 28 0 0 .287 .337 .609 .946

Last 7 Days 23 3 5 2 0 1 8 1 0 5 0 0 .217 .240 .435 .675

Pre All-Star 266 43 74 22 2 17 47 35 3 83 0 0 .278 .366 .568 .934

 

And here's another who normally does better than this:

April 86 13 21 4 0 2 9 12 7 24 0 0 .244 .381 .360 .741

May 101 18 29 3 0 5 10 21 1 23 1 0 .287 .415 .465 .880

June 86 13 21 6 0 8 12 15 3 21 0 0 .244 .375 .593 .968

Last 7 Days 23 3 6 4 0 2 5 0 2 6 0 0 .261 .320 .696 1.016

Pre All-Star 273 44 71 13 0 15 31 48 11 68 1 0 .260 .392 .473 .865

 

Neither one may be available. But if you are going to make a move to push the Sox offense to another gear, you need someone who can hit in the .900+ OPS range, not someone hitting barely above .800 because he had one good month.

 

Edited by VAfan
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Heh, so if you just throw out Adam LaRoche's best month and Kotsay's worst month they're about equal? Seems fair.

 

ZIPS has Mark Kotsay putting up this line the rest of the way this season: .253/.317/.355/.672 and a .303 wOBA

 

And LaRoche: .280/.360/.509/.869 and a .378 wOBA

 

Does a .378 wOBA qualify as a difference maker? Yeah, probably. Is it a significant upgrade over Kotsay? f*** yeah.

 

One of the big reasons why everyone keeps bringing up his name is his career splits:

 

1st half: .253/.328/.450/.778 AB/HR: 24.8

2nd half: .300/.363/.546/.909 AB/HR: 17.7

 

Year by year 1st/2nd half splits by OPS:

 

'04: .680/.934

'05: .810/.732

'06: .805/1.042

'07: .763/.854

'08: .764/.975

'09: .784/.915

'10: .808/???

 

Dude's got a consistent track record of significantly picking it up in the second half. He's also put up a sub .300 batting average in the 2nd half of a season only once and that was in 5 years ago.

 

Are people drooling over him? No, not really. Would he be an acceptable and reasonable (financially and talent wise) replacement for Kotsay at DH? Most definitely. LaRoche is the most realistic and sensible target, that's why you see his name so often.

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QUOTE (Kalapse @ Jun 28, 2010 -> 12:04 AM)
Heh, so if you just throw out Adam LaRoche's best month and Kotsay's worst month they're about equal? Seems fair.

 

ZIPS has Mark Kotsay putting up this line the rest of the way this season: .253/.317/.355/.672 and a .303 wOBA

 

And LaRoche: .280/.360/.509/.869 and a .378 wOBA

 

Does a .378 wOBA qualify as a difference maker? Yeah, probably. Is it a significant upgrade over Kotsay? f*** yeah.

 

One of the big reasons why everyone keeps bringing up his name is his career splits:

 

1st half: .253/.328/.450/.778 AB/HR: 24.8

2nd half: .300/.363/.546/.909 AB/HR: 17.7

 

Dude's got a consistent track record of significantly picking it up in the second half.

 

Are people drooling over him? No, not really. Would he be an acceptable and reasonable (financially and talent wise) replacement for Kotsay at DH? Most definitely. LaRoche is the most realistic and sensible target, that's why you see his name so often.

 

ESPN the other night said they have the best research department.

 

No, SoxTalk does, and it's name is Kalapse.

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For the exact reasons that Kalapse gave is why I have LaRoche atop my list. It is not that I wouldn't prefer Dunn or Fielder, I just don't think he can get either of them without giving up too much (or even possibly over pay). I think LaRoche's 2nd half prowess could even be more amplified in the way lefties can do really well in our park. Unless Dunn doesn't take much to acquire, which I doubt, LaRoche is the most logical choice in my mind. At this point in the season I would think the D-Backs would just want to save the money that he would cost.

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QUOTE (Quinarvy @ Jun 28, 2010 -> 12:07 AM)
ESPN the other night said they have the best research department.

 

No, SoxTalk does, and it's name is Kalapse.

 

That's such a bad lie.

 

BTW Kal, the .378 wOBA paired with LaRoche's defense at 1B gives him exactly 2 WAR for the rest of the season.

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QUOTE (docsox24 @ Jun 28, 2010 -> 01:16 PM)
How much would you guys be willing to give up for a bat?

 

Would you do Hudson and Flower for Dunn?

Is Dunn enough to put this team over the top?

I would not do that, but I can understand how some people would.

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QUOTE (docsox24 @ Jun 28, 2010 -> 01:16 PM)
How much would you guys be willing to give up for a bat?

 

Would you do Hudson and Flower for Dunn?

Is Dunn enough to put this team over the top?

 

No and maybe.

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LaRoche also has a $7.5M mutual option for next year. Not sure if he'd choose to take it over a multi-year free agency deal, but I doubt that the market pays him that much in 2011. And it also solves our 1B/DH hole next season.

 

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QUOTE (docsox24 @ Jun 28, 2010 -> 01:16 PM)
How much would you guys be willing to give up for a bat?

 

Would you do Hudson and Flowers for Dunn?

Is Dunn enough to put this team over the top?

I'm a huge Dunn fan, but it would be a rent a player and that would be a lot to give up for him

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QUOTE (Kalapse @ Jun 28, 2010 -> 01:04 AM)
Heh, so if you just throw out Adam LaRoche's best month and Kotsay's worst month they're about equal? Seems fair.

 

ZIPS has Mark Kotsay putting up this line the rest of the way this season: .253/.317/.355/.672 and a .303 wOBA

 

And LaRoche: .280/.360/.509/.869 and a .378 wOBA

 

Does a .378 wOBA qualify as a difference maker? Yeah, probably. Is it a significant upgrade over Kotsay? f*** yeah.

 

One of the big reasons why everyone keeps bringing up his name is his career splits:

 

1st half: .253/.328/.450/.778 AB/HR: 24.8

2nd half: .300/.363/.546/.909 AB/HR: 17.7

 

Year by year 1st/2nd half splits by OPS:

 

'04: .680/.934

'05: .810/.732

'06: .805/1.042

'07: .763/.854

'08: .764/.975

'09: .784/.915

'10: .808/???

 

Dude's got a consistent track record of significantly picking it up in the second half. He's also put up a sub .300 batting average in the 2nd half of a season only once and that was in 5 years ago.

 

Are people drooling over him? No, not really. Would he be an acceptable and reasonable (financially and talent wise) replacement for Kotsay at DH? Most definitely. LaRoche is the most realistic and sensible target, that's why you see his name so often.

 

 

Okay, I accept the fact that you did your homework on his second half numbers. If he produced in the .900+ OPS category, as he did 3 of the last 4 years in the second half, I'll grant you that he's a considerable upgrade over any options the Sox currently have. He's also in a good age and cost range to be viable for the Sox beyond this year, if we wanted to keep him. So count me as among those who would be thrilled if the Sox acquired him, as long as the prospect cost is not too high. I think he'd be a fine #5 or #6 hitter, depending on Quentin's second half performance.

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