Adam Dunn Trade rumor thread

[beck72]

I'd probably trust Dayan fielding over Dunn. Plus, Dayan has a mad ceiling for what could be a rental + picks. Flowers, Torres, Short, Morel would probably be my max offer.

We'll see what Kenny does. But if the Nats are OK with Dayan as the centerpiece, I say the sox bite.

[ChiSox_Sonix]

We'll see what Kenny does. But if the Nats are OK with Dayan as the centerpiece, I say the sox bite.

 

I think I'd really like to hang on to Dayan though. He's looked way more impressive than I thought he would for being just 21 and recently removed from his home country.

[Balta1701]

I think I'd really like to hang on to Dayan though. He's looked way more impressive than I thought he would for being just 21 and recently removed from his home country.

That's the problem with our system and all the injuries from our 2009 draft class. There's just no one other teams would want that I'm comfortable giving up on. All of the top 4 guys in our system have roles that they should fill within the next year or so.

[beck72]

I think I'd really like to hang on to Dayan though. He's looked way more impressive than I thought he would for being just 21 and recently removed from his home country.

Dayan's put up better numbers than I thought he would. Yet the fact that the sox would rather put Omar out there almost everyday over Dayan for his defense alone, and have Kotsay play even though he's not hitting his weight and could play Dayan at 1b or DH, gives a bit of a hint as to what his plans are on the Sox. People may say it's a pennant race. and the sox are going with vets. Yet 2011 should also be a pennant race. The sox can't have below avg. defenders out there, this yr. or in the future. Dayan may improve his glove. Yet that will only come with more playing time, going through struggles, making stupid mistakes. The sox aren't in the position to give him that long leash he needs. But on a young club, Dayan might do well and improve his glove. I don't think Dayan's a butcher with the glove. But he kinds of reminds me Carlos Lee with less plate discipline. The sox are getting away from the slugging Carlos Lee types, and getting defense and offense from players such as Rios, Beckham and Alexei.

[Balta1701]

Dayan's put up better numbers than I thought he would. Yet the fact that the sox would rather put Omar out there almost everyday over Dayan for his defense alone, and have Kotsay play even though he's not hitting his weight and could play Dayan at 1b or DH, gives a bit of a hint as to what his plans are on the Sox.

DV could be hitting like Buster Posey and Ozzie would still be making sure Kotsay got his at bats.

[beck72]

DV could be hitting like Buster Posey and Ozzie would still be making sure Kotsay got his at bats.

Kotsay reminds me of the Nix situation. He's outlived his usefulness and he's still being trotted out there. If it's not Dunn added, another LH bat needs to replace Kotsay.

[Balta1701]

Kotsay reminds me of the Nix situation. He's outlived his usefulness and he's still being trotted out there. If it's not Dunn added, another LH bat needs to replace Kotsay.

And yet, Nix has been a better than solid bat in Cleveland's lineup.

[Quin]

DV could be hitting like some sort of Cuban Babe Ruth and Ozzie would still be making sure Kotsay got his at bats.

 

Fixed.

[Chicago White Sox]

I could see both Flowers and Dayan go. The Sox will likely re-sign AJ. He's a perfect match for our pitching staff. I just don't see Dayan as a fit going forward, though. The sox don't want to have a below avg. fielder playing a key position, either 3b or 1b. The sox have options at 3b, with Teahen and Morel for 2011. 1b isn't a spot to hide Dayan either. Seeing how many E's PK has saved this year and made all the plays hit at him, a guy has to be able to be solid at 1b. I like Dayan as a DH. Dayan may be a slugger. Yet he's got serious holes in his swing and approach. Teams will learn how to make him chase balls and he will get himself out.

 

Yet with Dunn, the sox can turn those 2 picks into some nice players. The scouting dept. has turned it around, and I have faith that those picks and Dunn's bat for this year, can be better than what Dayan, Flowers, etc could do.

So the Sox don't want a below average fielder in Dayan playing 3B, but they'll let Teahen play there? I'm sorry but that makes no sense. Also, Dayan started playing 1B on a regular basis this year, so let's give him a little more time there before we call him a future DH.

 

As for the "serious holes in his swing and approach", the kid is 21 years old and already has made the big leagues. You want to write him off already? The kid has massive potential and will only get better with time.

 

This draft pick s*** is nonsense. I don't care how much better our scouting department has been as of late, you can't tell me that they'll turn these two picks into players of equal value to Dayan and Flowers. Nothing is guaranteed in the draft and even the best picks can get side-tracked and quickly lose value. Look at our top three picks from 2009 draft if you need an example.

[southsider2k5]

I took that as "this team has earned the right to finish what they've started." Even though a baboon can see it's flawed.

 

Mistake #1= Taking Kenny Williams at face value.

[Balta1701]

Look at our top three picks from 2009 draft if you need an example.

Bah, that's not fair. There's probably an equal chance that if you trade Dunn for Flowers and Viciedo that Flowers and Viciedo will get hurt as there is that our 2009 draft would get injured.

[beck72]

So the Sox don't want a below average fielder in Dayan playing 3B, but they'll let Teahen play there? I'm sorry but that makes no sense. Also, Dayan started playing 1B on a regular basis this year, so let's give him a little more time there before we call him a future DH.

 

As for the "serious holes in his swing and approach", the kid is 21 years old and already has made the big leagues. You want to write him off already? The kid has massive potential and will only get better with time.

 

This draft pick s*** is nonsense. I don't care how much better our scouting department has been as of late, you can't tell me that they'll turn these two picks into players of equal value to Dayan and Flowers. Nothing is guaranteed in the draft and even the best picks can get side-tracked and quickly lose value. Look at our top three picks from 2009 draft if you need an example.

IMO, Teahen won't be with the sox long. He was being subbed for by Vizquel for defensive purposes.

 

The point is, the sox aren't in the position as a playoff contending team to stick with a very young guy, and give him the consistent playing time in the field and at the plate necessary for him to reach his potential. Dayan will have a lot of ups and downs, in the field and at the plate. He may fill his "potential". He may not. That is the nature of trades and the sox have done well trading away "potential" talent. Few young guys the sox have traded have even had decent careers let alone become stars. Sweeney's been the best of a sorry bunch.

 

We'll see what his value is and what Kenny decides. IMO, Dayan's worth more to a young, non-contending team than he is to the Sox.

 

The draft picks do have tremendous value, though. The sox can't outspend many teams and need the farm system to develop stars. Look how Boston completely rebuilt their team with picks. I'd take picks that could turn out to be Jared Mitchell and Trayce Thompson [injured players, not washouts by any means] and a bat like Adam Dunn that could help win a world series over a potential DH and a few lesser players that may not be regulars.

Edited July 20, 2010 by beck72

[Balta1701]

We'll see what his value is and what Kenny decides. IMO, Dayan's worth more to a young, non-contending team than he is to the Sox

I totally disagree on this. I think a big part of the problem is that the guys the Sox have are probably undervalued on the trade market compared to where they are for the Sox. Right now, the Sox happen to have guys who fill the exact holes they anticipate having on their roster (SP, DH/1b, C) next year, which is a useful thing to have, and because their system isn't viewed well, guys like Viciedo or Hudson who would be brand name players already if they had been hitting in the Red Sox or Rangers organizations are viewed with extra skepticism.

 

I think there's a real good chance than in a few years, DV is a 30+ HR legitimate hitter, and I think most of the Sox brass probably agrees with me. If you're dealing a guy like that, you ought to be able to get back a solid return for him. Instead, he's sort of a complimentary trade piece right now because his first year in the US he struggled with adapting and with the bats.

[beck72]

I totally disagree on this. I think a big part of the problem is that the guys the Sox have are probably undervalued on the trade market compared to where they are for the Sox. Right now, the Sox happen to have guys who fill the exact holes they anticipate having on their roster (SP, DH/1b, C) next year, which is a useful thing to have, and because their system isn't viewed well, guys like Viciedo or Hudson who would be brand name players already if they had been hitting in the Red Sox or Rangers organizations are viewed with extra skepticism.

 

I think there's a real good chance than in a few years, DV is a 30+ HR legitimate hitter, and I think most of the Sox brass probably agrees with me. If you're dealing a guy like that, you ought to be able to get back a solid return for him. Instead, he's sort of a complimentary trade piece right now because his first year in the US he struggled with adapting and with the bats.

I think the sox prospects are viewed with extra skepticism because the sox farm system hasn't produced impact players. Until guys like Beckham, Hudson, Mitchell, Viciedo perform in the bigs, every team, scout, GM, and writer in baseball should view their system with caution.

 

The sox have done very well knowing the "ceiling" and "floors" of their minor league talent. Viciedo might produce 30+ HR's. But it might be with a .220 avg like Chris Young, but without the defense, speed and OBP.

[Balta1701]

The sox have done very well knowing the "ceiling" and "floors" of their minor league talent. Viciedo might produce 30+ HR's. But it might be with a .220 avg like Chris Young, but without the defense, speed and OBP.

I think a .220 average with Viciedo is nearly impossible and I struggle to think how a scout would expect him to do so...because he's putting the ball in play so much even already in the big leagues. If he's hitting 30+ HR, he'd have to sustain a BABIP under .250 to pull off an average that low.

[Chisoxfn]

I would have a hard time giving up Huddy in a package for done. I really like Viciedo because I think he has so much raw ability, but depending on the Sox plans I could live with it a bit more because his upside is that of a Dunn (one dimensional player, whose dimension is offense), quite frankly. Never in a million years did I think I'd be excited to get Dunn, but depending on the package I just might.

 

If it means giving up Hudson, Flowers, and Viciedo, well forget about it. I tend to think Huddy is untouchable because we need to have a good young cheap pitcher in our rotation while we pay guys like Floyd/Buehrle/Peavy/etc.

[beck72]

I think a .220 average with Viciedo is nearly impossible and I struggle to think how a scout would expect him to do so...because he's putting the ball in play so much even already in the big leagues. If he's hitting 30+ HR, he'd have to sustain a BABIP under .250 to pull off an average that low.

If Viciedo's ceiling is 30 Hr's with a .250 avg, I think the sox would part with him in a trade for Dunn.

[Balta1701]

If Viciedo's ceiling is 30 Hr's with a .250 avg, I think the sox would part with him in a trade for Dunn.

I wouldn't call that his "Ceiling", he's got the ability to push well beyond 30 HR. I think that's a likely place for him to come in, but it's not his ceiling. He's got the power in that bat to push well beyond 40 HR, esp. if he is slightly more selective on pitches.

 

But hypothetically, if that were his ceiling...that's the kind of player who should be an ideal centerpiece in a trade for a guy like Dunn...but for the deals we've been talking about, he wouldn't even be the best talent required to do it, Hudson would be.

[beck72]

I would have a hard time giving up Huddy in a package for done. I really like Viciedo because I think he has so much raw ability, but depending on the Sox plans I could live with it a bit more because his upside is that of a Dunn (one dimensional player, whose dimension is offense), quite frankly. Never in a million years did I think I'd be excited to get Dunn, but depending on the package I just might.

 

If it means giving up Hudson, Flowers, and Viciedo, well forget about it. I tend to think Huddy is untouchable because we need to have a good young cheap pitcher in our rotation while we pay guys like Floyd/Buehrle/Peavy/etc.

I completely agree. The sox shouldn't give up a key piece of their future and present for Dunn like Hudson.

 

Viciedo has upside on offense. But it prob. will be hard for him to keep up the numbers he's putting up now. Dayan may put up good power numbers. But his avg.,non-existent OBP and defense leave a lot to be desired.

[Balta1701]

I completely agree. The sox shouldn't give up a key piece of their future and present for Dunn like Hudson.

 

Viciedo has upside on offense. But it prob. will be hard for him to keep up the numbers he's putting up now. Dayan may put up good power numbers. But his avg.,non-existent OBP and defense leave a lot to be desired.

But reality is...the asking price for Dunn has been so far above even Hudson + Viciedo (it's been Beckham), and even if that price drops, no one thinks that it'll drop below Hudson + Viciedo.

[caulfield12]

Viciedo's ceiling might be closer to Miguel Cabrera, for all we know, without as high an OBP.

 

Yes, I just compared him to the second best hitter in MLB, but every scout loves his swing and hitting ability...this wasn't a question where there was doubt (like with Alexei Ramirez coming out of Cuba), at least half the clubs were interested in him.

 

I don't think there's any logic to paying Dunn $60 million over 4 years to stay, and there's even less logic to the White Sox being able to get develop someone to that level before, say, 2014-15.

 

If they would have played Viciedo everyday as the DH for the last ten days, they'd have a much better idea if they have to make a trade or not.

 

The fact of the matter is that Dunn would have to adjust to a new league, a new position or situation, it's very rare that someone changes leagues in the middle of the season and just lights the world on fire, especially moving from the NL to the stronger AL. If we're trying to get away from Dunn (Thome) types, why would we want to bring in Dunn? That would be like admitting we made a mistake not just re-upping Farmer Jim. With the price tag being as high as it is, I don't see any way KW pulls the trigger. He knows the future with Peavy/Mitchell/Sale/Hudson/Viciedo/Flowers could be even brighter than what we're putting out on the field right now.

[beck72]

I wouldn't call that his "Ceiling", he's got the ability to push well beyond 30 HR. I think that's a likely place for him to come in, but it's not his ceiling. He's got the power in that bat to push well beyond 40 HR, esp. if he is slightly more selective on pitches.

 

But hypothetically, if that were his ceiling...that's the kind of player who should be an ideal centerpiece in a trade for a guy like Dunn...but for the deals we've been talking about, he wouldn't even be the best talent required to do it, Hudson would be.

Gregor posted that he heard the asking price has dropped to Viciedo plus other prospects from Hudson, Beckham and Carlos as the centerpiece. It makes sense that the Nats start with the high asking price. What they'll settle for, who knows? It has to be higher than the 2 picks, at least to the Nats. With Strasburg, they may want major league ready players instead of picks.

[beck72]

IIRC, it was Ozzie who didn't want to bring in a guy who could only DH. And Dunn would be able to do more than Thome. I understood the thinking. But no one can argue now that Kotsay should be getting the majority of AB's vs RHP, as DH or at 1b. If the Sox got Dunn, it would be for 2010. Though I could see the sox strike a deal as he'd be a fit at 1b with his LH power bat.

[ChiSox_Sonix]

Gregor posted that he heard the asking price has dropped to Viciedo plus other prospects from Hudson, Beckham and Carlos as the centerpiece. It makes sense that the Nats start with the high asking price. What they'll settle for, who knows? It has to be higher than the 2 picks, at least to the Nats. With Strasburg, they may want major league ready players instead of picks.

 

So the price has dropped to Beckham/Hudson/CQ + Viciedo + more? Wow, they are out of their minds.

[jenksycat]

So the price has dropped to Beckham/Hudson/CQ + Viciedo + more? Wow, they are out of their minds.

 

TO Vic FROM Beck/Q