Adam Dunn Trade rumor thread

[klaus kinski]

Its simple-just figure out what we need to beat Minnesota, and get it.

[beck72]

Of course he used a small sample size since Carlos is seemingly injured half the time.

I agree that the Sox should not count on Carlos to carry the team due to his injury history. After his 2008 breakout year, most people thought that 2009 the sox offense would center on Carlos and an improved Alexei. An injured Carlos showed that the sox offense can't rely on one or two guys to carry it. Kenny started this offseason to build that team that was able to not rely on the HR as much and its still being built. Trading Carlos would set that process back.

 

In the short term, at best it may be a wash. In the long term, it would definitely be a huge setback for the Sox. Carlos has far, far more value than a two month rental like dunn. That's even counting on draft picks [ if the sox offered him arb. which they prob. won't want to pay $13, 14 mill. for a DH] It would hurt the Sox the next few years. They are built to win now around Peavy, Mark, Danks and Gavin and those picks may turn into something decent 3, 4 yrs down the road.

[caulfield12]

Agree with Robertito Walker Clemente,

 

The White Sox have to WIN NOW, meaning in the 2010-12 window, IF it's still open.

 

Trading Quentin would be a huge mistake, despite his injuries and defensive issues, he's shown that he can carry the ballclub and Dunn is simply not the type of player you want to spend $12-15 million for over multiple years, he's the antithesis of everything that Ozzie is trying to accomplish by shedding Thome/Dye, it's like saying not only do we acknowledge that we made a mistake by not signing Thome, we're going to compound it.

 

That's assuming they would be giving up the likes of Beckham, Quentin or Hudson for Dunn. If there's a way to get it done without trading those three players, then it might make sense, but I'm still not 100% sold. I'd rather have Edwin Jackson, in fact, largely because he proved he could pitch successfully in the AL Central last year and Dunn would have only 2 months to adjust to a new league and new pitchers.

 

While Konerko is more easily replaced statistically, there has to be a tremendous amount of discussion back and forth about the future of Tyler Flowers in this organization.

[Wedge]

I guess I don't understand the point of cherry picking a random 2 month stretch from last year to prove a point. Especially since the comparison shows almost equal results from the 2 players.

 

Sorry, I forgot this year was 2010 and not 2009, so it was just mislabeled data on my part. Apologies for the confusion.

 

We're acquiring Dunn for two months, so the actual production "upgrade' we're looking for is just a random sample of two months... Would Carlos or Dunn produce more over the last two months of the season? I don't think there's a high degree of certainty that Dunn will produce that much more than Carlos, as the June/July split shows.

[hitlesswonder]

People are acting like Adam Dunn is Albert Pujols or something. He's not. Dunn would be a nice addition but not at the price of Hudson even. The sox need depth as Freddy is still a question mark considering he has thrown a lot of innings this year. Hudson should be a keeper, even as they look to add another SP.

 

By the same token, I think you are over-rating the Sox talent. Hudson would not be the top pitching prospect for any other organization in baseball. And CQ cannot stay on the field. There's a good chance Dunn will worth more wins over these last 2 moths than CQ and Hudson combined.

 

[RockRaines]

By the same token, I think you are over-rating the Sox talent. Hudson would not be the top pitching prospect for any other organization in baseball. And CQ cannot stay on the field. There's a good chance Dunn will worth more wins over these last 2 moths than CQ and Hudson combined.

Total bulls***. He would be the top pitching prospect for several other teams with zero doubt.

[ChiSox_Sonix]

By the same token, I think you are over-rating the Sox talent. Hudson would not be the top pitching prospect for any other organization in baseball. And CQ cannot stay on the field. There's a good chance Dunn will worth more wins over these last 2 moths than CQ and Hudson combined.

 

I hope you are familiar with the top prospects from every other team in baseball. Otherwise you are just talking out your ass. Or you're actually Keith Law,

[chw42]

Hudson was ranked in the top 70 by Baseball America.

 

Do the math. 70/30 = 2.333

 

On the average team, Hudson would be a top 3 prospect, if not top 2.

[hitlesswonder]

I hope you are familiar with the top prospects from every other team in baseball. Otherwise you are just talking out your ass. Or you're actually Keith Law,

 

I was going by Law's top 100 prospects list, which Hudson didn't make. Granted, some teams don't have a pitching prospect on there, but most do. And before we go with the "Law hates the Sox" stuff, Flowers and Mitchell made the list when they probably shouldn't have given their K rates.

 

I think it's fair to say that Hudson's value as a prospect is certainly open for debate.

[chw42]

I was going by Law's top 100 prospects list, which Hudson didn't make. Granted, some teams don't have a pitching prospect on there, but most do. And before we go with the "Law hates the Sox" stuff, Flowers and Mitchell made the list when they probably shouldn't have given their K rates.

 

I think it's fair to say that Hudson's value as a prospect is certainly open for debate.

 

Of course he doesn't make it. It's Keith Law.

[ChiSox_Sonix]

I was going by Law's top 100 prospects list, which Hudson didn't make. Granted, some teams don't have a pitching prospect on there, but most do. And before we go with the "Law hates the Sox" stuff, Flowers and Mitchell made the list when they probably shouldn't have given their K rates.

 

I think it's fair to say that Hudson's value as a prospect is certainly open for debate.

 

You're one of only two people here I can think of that refuses to acknowledge that Keith Law has some sort of vendetta (or might have one) against anything related to the White Sox.

[Ozzie Ball]

You're one of only two people here I can think of that refuses to acknowledge that Keith Law has some sort of vendetta (or might have one) against anything related to the White Sox.

I too refuse to acknowledge it. Law is full of snark and fans of basically every team feel that he's anti their team.

[hitlesswonder]

You're one of only two people here I can think of that refuses to acknowledge that Keith Law has some sort of vendetta (or might have one) against anything related to the White Sox.

 

I think Law is biased against organizations that he regards as stupid and I think he thinks the Sox are stupid...BUT I don't think it skewed his evaluations on prospects much if at all. He could easily have left off Flowers and Mitchell but he didn't. Law actually has "baseball reasons" for thinking Hudson and Sale aren't good prospects. The reasons might be wrong, but I don't think he's down on them because they play for the Sox. Actually, I think he's down on the Sox because they keep acquiring players like Sale that he doesn't think much of....

Edited July 28, 2010 by hitlesswonder

[Ozzie Ball]

rant/

 

People need to stop using the "small sample size" defense. The last I looked nobody has done a power analysis to determine what the proper sample size needs to be to predict the outcome of a 162 game schedule. Until that's determined you have no idea what the adequate sample size need to be. People continue to use statistical analysis without regard for the reliability or validity of any of the processes. This is one of the problems with all of Bill James stats. He bases them off things he thinks makes sense, but has never done and will never do reliability studies on them. I've e-mailed him and asked him those questions and he replied once about 10 years ago. His respose was "they seem to make sense to me." He doesn't respond to any statistical analysis questions anymore.

 

I know I've stated this before but it bothers me when people use statistical analysis for their discussions when they really don't know how to use the terms.

 

/rant.

Pizza Cutter did a study on how big of a sample size is needed in order for the numbers to hold any predictive value. It worked out that you need a 550 PA sample size for a >.70 correlation with ISO.

 

Two months is not going to tell you a lot.

[beck72]

By the same token, I think you are over-rating the Sox talent. Hudson would not be the top pitching prospect for any other organization in baseball. And CQ cannot stay on the field. There's a good chance Dunn will worth more wins over these last 2 moths than CQ and Hudson combined.

I said that in the short term it may be a wash re: dunn and CQ production wise. But long term, CQ or Hudson would be worth more wins as Dunn is DHing somewhere.

 

Put Hudson in any system and he is a top SP prospect after not only performing but excelling in every level of the minors. After his solid AAA year, Hudson has only increased his value from 2009. You may, and others around here, compare Hudson's ceiling with other system stalwarts like Poreda, Clayton, McCarthy, Rauch, etc. after the sox have had few arms make it in the bigs. He may suck like the rest. Yet Hudson should be looked at by his own merits, strengths and weaknesses. He seems to be above those others, with his control, movement on his pitches, his fit in the ballpark, his aggressiveness, demeanor, durability, etc. He doesn't have overpowering stuff and needs to rely on his control, location and movement. If he gets behind in the count, he'll get hurt.

[chw42]

I said that in the short term it may be a wash re: dunn and CQ production wise. But long term, CQ or Hudson would be worth more wins as Dunn is DHing somewhere.

 

Put Hudson in any system and he is a top SP prospect after not only performing but excelling in every level of the minors. After his solid AAA year, Hudson has only increased his value from 2009. You may, and others around here, compare Hudson's ceiling with other system stalwarts like Poreda, Clayton, McCarthy, Rauch, etc. after the sox have had few arms make it in the bigs. He may suck like the rest. Yet Hudson should be looked at by his own merits, strengths and weaknesses. He seems to be above those others, with his control, movement on his pitches, his fit in the ballpark, his aggressiveness, demeanor, durability, etc. He doesn't have overpowering stuff and needs to rely on his control, location and movement. If he gets behind in the count, he'll get hurt.

 

I honestly think Hudson was more valuable last year than he is this year.

[chw42]

Pizza Cutter did a study on how big of a sample size is needed in order for the numbers to hold any predictive value. It worked out that you need a 550 PA sample size for a >.70 correlation with ISO.

 

Two months is not going to tell you a lot.

 

I knew somebody would have looked at this in some way.

[ptatc]

Pizza Cutter did a study on how big of a sample size is needed in order for the numbers to hold any predictive value. It worked out that you need a 550 PA sample size for a >.70 correlation with ISO.

 

Two months is not going to tell you a lot.

 

Do you know how they calculated it or where the information can be found? It most statistical prediction models you don't 70% of the data to predict the outcome. Granted the more data you have the more accurrate the prediction will be. However, if you need to get 70% of the data prediction models are useless as if you have 70% of the data the season is basically over and there is no value in prediction.

[Balta1701]

I honestly think Hudson was more valuable last year than he is this year.

If that's true then other GM's are quite silly indeed.

[chw42]

If that's true then other GM's are quite silly indeed.

 

Doesn't really mean his talent is declining. He was just really good last year and it would have been easier to sell that to a GM.

[TitoMB345]

I have this sick feeling we won't be getting Dunn, and I'll end up being pretty bummed. I think he would look great in White Sox Black and White! KW, make it happen, for my birthday!

[heirdog]

When was the last time the Braves actually gave up a top (elite) level prospect that actually panned out? I really can't think of one...Andy Marte, Jarrold Saltalamachia, Tyler Flowers. Those guys really seem to know or tout their prospects well and package them in trades. So I think we go ahead and trade Flowers because the Braves gave him to us and it was for Javy "Freakin'" Vasquez so you know he can't be all that good.

[chw42]

When was the last time the Braves actually gave up a top (elite) level prospect that actually panned out? I really can't think of one...Andy Marte, Jarrold Saltalamachia, Tyler Flowers. Those guys really seem to know or tout their prospects well and package them in trades. So I think we go ahead and trade Flowers because the Braves gave him to us and it was for Javy "Freakin'" Vasquez so you know he can't be all that good.

 

Elvis Andrus and Neftali Feliz.

[Balta1701]

Doesn't really mean his talent is declining. He was just really good last year and it would have been easier to sell that to a GM.

He's been really good for the last 2 months in AAA this year as well.

[heirdog]

Elvis Andrus and Neftali Feliz.

 

Ahh yes, thanks.