Adam Dunn Trade rumor thread

[SoxFan562004]

Yet there was many of us calling to bring back Thome in January/February when we knew KW was not gonna go out and get another bat, but stick with the Kotsay/Jones platoon which many here knew was a bad idea. I even warned people about Jones hot start to go down because he did the same thing last year with Texas and wanted him traded when he was still hitting in the .270s (.900+ OPS, etc..) but of course didn't happen. And I'm sure the Twins and their scouts are also glad they didn't listen to you badge regarding Thome.

well, the same thing could happen to him in Minnesota this year, meaning he struggles at the end of the season... granted he's playing less, but I think a valid argument could be made it's the colder weather on his body that makes him struggle,not playing time.

[iamshack]

Ozzie, Sox, does it really matter who was the driving force behind the decision?

 

The end result is that the Sox management agreed with Ozzie's assessment at the end of the day. Jerry and Kenny could have signed Thome and forced Ozzie to play him.

 

Ozzie may have been the most vocal, but if his argument won, it means that the others agreed with him at the end of the day.

 

If anyone thought Thome would put up a consistent .864 he probably would have been back.

 

I just think Ozzie (who watched the guy every day) didnt think he had much left in the tank. You arent sitting a guy 5-6 days a week if hes performing. Its not like Kenny and Reinsdorf were saying "Oh hes going to be a 1.00+ ops player" and Ozzies response was "Well where can I find room for that in my line up."

 

The argument was more likely:

 

Kenny: Hey Thome may have a little juice left, he wants to come back cheap, lets do it.

 

Ozzie: Im not so sure about that. He was pretty brutal at the end of last year and looked like his bat is slow. If you sign him and I have him on my bench I wont have as much flexibility. If Konerko goes down, who will play 1b? Thome cant field, Im not so sure hes even worth a spot if he is free.

 

/end scene

 

In retrospect Thome was much better than ANY of them thought. But that is like saying "The Cubs should have never picked Prior 2nd because he would bust." Its easy to predict the past.

 

I highly doubt that is how it went down. And judging from what you have seen this year and what you know about Ozzie, I'm not sure how you can even argue that is how it went down.

 

Ozzie said "I want to manufacture runs and I want roster flexibility."

 

Kenny said ""But Ozzie, this guy is actually a good baseball player, unlike some of these other bums."

 

Ozzie said "I have tried it your way for a few years now with these base cloggers. Let me try it my way."

 

And Ozzie and Jerry ultimately relented. Jerry then said publicly "How can we hold the guy accountable if we don't give him the kind of roster he wants?"

 

Maybe we will see more in "The Club," or whatever. But that is my guess of how it went down.

 

And you can say this was unforseeable and that he was on a steep decline, but the guy has put up OPS's far in excess of what one would call a productive player in this league his entire career. You're basically saying he was predicted to fail without ever statistically failing over a significant number of healthy at bats.

 

For $2M, you take the risk and go with what the numbers have been saying for the last 15 years. Not Ozzie Guillen's f***ing "hunch."

 

I'm as big a supporter of OG and the FO as you will find around here, but I cannot defend that decision. It was incredibly, incredibly irresponsible for Kenny to allow Ozzie to convince him not to sign Thome.

Edited June 30, 2010 by iamshack

[Soxbadger]

If everyone thought Thome was good, then why is he playing for the Twins at a really low salary, instead of starting for another team?

 

Its not like teams were salivating over Thome and only the White Sox (and I) thought Thome had lost it.

 

It just is really easy after the fact to say how smart every one was about Thome. I just saw nothing last year to expect this, but hey no one is right all the time. Maybe I just got tired of the slow White Sox line up, with the strike out or home run mentality. Maybe I just wanted some change and felt that even if Thome may be the better hitter, he just brought nothing else and if he wasnt hitting hes a waste of space.

 

Well see how it all plays out at the end of the season, but Thome had some good months last year, as well as some horrible ones.

 

[CaliSoxFanViaSWside]

This is aimed at Coolmanjoe. If the Sox do get Dunn you know Viceido will be part of the deal. That's why he's up here, to show he's ML ready . He can then replace Dunn at 1st for the Nats .

[Vance Law]

Well see how it all plays out at the end of the season, but Thome had some good months last year, as well as some horrible ones.

 

I think you are missing the point that horrible for Thome is still better than Kotsay's best. Even if he doesn't keep up his current pace, he will end head and shoulders better than Kotsay and well above league average (just like he always has) and for dirt cheap. There are only 13 teams (other than the Sox) that use a DH, and very few that both a) had that spot open and B) had a reasonable chance at contending such that they would give up even a couple of million to sign someone rather than giving some youngster the at bats.

 

You can go back and look at threads from the time before the Twins signed Thome and you will see a ton of us saying exactly that.

 

[Real]

This is aimed at Coolmanjoe. If the Sox do get Dunn you know Viceido will be part of the deal. That's why he's up here, to show he's ML ready . He can then replace Dunn at 1st for the Nats .

 

You make an excellent point, this could explain the sparse, cherry-picked playing time that Dayan has been seeing. This would lead me to believe that Kenny has been in talks with Washington for probably a couple weeks, if not longer. Though you'd think any GM worth their salt would see the difference between a young up-and-comer being ML Ready, and a young kid being thrown into the best possible scenarios to succeed to increase his trade value

[Soxbadger]

Its great that Thome is doing well, I didnt expect and I dont think it was so obvious that he was going to get back to his old form. You can say the Sox had a space, but so far no one has suggested who would play 1b when Konerko needs rest?

 

Furthermore, if other players were dinged up etc and needed some rest and to play DH, it would have left the White Sox bench woefully thin.

 

In retrospect its easy to say what if, but I just hate looking back and arguing about what should have been done. Its over, decisions were made, all the Sox can do is try and make the best of the future going forward.

[SoxFan562004]

I think you are missing the point that horrible for Thome is still better than Kotsay's best. Even if he doesn't keep up his current pace, he will end head and shoulders better than Kotsay and well above league average (just like he always has) and for dirt cheap. There are only 13 teams (other than the Sox) that use a DH, and very few that both a) had that spot open and B) had a reasonable chance at contending such that they would give up even a couple of million to sign someone rather than giving some youngster the at bats.

 

You can go back and look at threads from the time before the Twins signed Thome and you will see a ton of us saying exactly that.

I would have been fine with Thome back, but also KW might have asked around and heard a lot of names from GMs of more consistent bats that would likely be available around mid-season but not in the off-season and thought he had/has a legit shot at getting one of those guys.

[SoxFan562004]

You make an excellent point, this could explain the sparse, cherry-picked playing time that Dayan has been seeing. This would lead me to believe that Kenny has been in talks with Washington for probably a couple weeks, if not longer. Though you'd think any GM worth their salt would see the difference between a young up-and-comer being ML Ready, and a young kid being thrown into the best possible scenarios to succeed to increase his trade value

OK, I'm going off a ridiculously small sample size, but seeing how much he K'd in the minors I am actually surprised at some of the pitches he's taken in the extremely small sample size I have seen him.

[iamshack]

If everyone thought Thome was good, then why is he playing for the Twins at a really low salary, instead of starting for another team?

 

Its not like teams were salivating over Thome and only the White Sox (and I) thought Thome had lost it.

 

It just is really easy after the fact to say how smart every one was about Thome. I just saw nothing last year to expect this, but hey no one is right all the time. Maybe I just got tired of the slow White Sox line up, with the strike out or home run mentality. Maybe I just wanted some change and felt that even if Thome may be the better hitter, he just brought nothing else and if he wasnt hitting hes a waste of space.

 

Well see how it all plays out at the end of the season, but Thome had some good months last year, as well as some horrible ones.

 

Because the market in baseball is ridiculously undervaluing veteran talent right now. It's an incredible over-correction or over-reaction to the push towards cost-certainty with the young players. Instead, they're incredibly undervaluing performance certainty right now.

 

Here is a guy who reached base at a .372 clip last season. That eye of his ALONE is worth $2M, and that is not even bringing into the equation his ability to slug at a .500 or above clip.

 

Part of the reason also has to do with the fact that he does not bring much flexibility, as he is a DH. That limits him to 14 teams right off the bat (unless an NL team wants him purely in a pinch-hitting role). Out of those 14 teams, probably 10 already had DHs. Which left about 4 teams for Jimmy to play for. Us, Minny, Detroit, and maybe Baltimore or something.

 

Needless to say, the man can still play, was willing to play at a discount, and yet, we ignored the reams and reams of data on this guy and let Ozzie have his way. Not because we thought Ozzie was right from an evaluation standpoint, but because Ozzie wanted his silly roster flexibility.

 

Well, his flexibility has resulted in us getting Mark Kotsay in the DH spot 5 games a week.

 

And this is not some "fluke" that is happening right now. Jimmy has done this for the last 15 years! It's not hindsight, it's not second guessing, it's what the statistics have been saying for basically his entire career. Why is that saying "after the fact" that the guy can still do it when he never gave us any statistically significant reason to doubt him?

[iamshack]

Its great that Thome is doing well, I didnt expect and I dont think it was so obvious that he was going to get back to his old form. You can say the Sox had a space, but so far no one has suggested who would play 1b when Konerko needs rest?

 

Furthermore, if other players were dinged up etc and needed some rest and to play DH, it would have left the White Sox bench woefully thin.

 

In retrospect its easy to say what if, but I just hate looking back and arguing about what should have been done. Its over, decisions were made, all the Sox can do is try and make the best of the future going forward.

 

Mark Teahan and Andruw Jones both can play 1b. That's who Kal mentioned hours ago.

[SoxAce]

Maybe I just got tired of the slow White Sox line up, with the strike out or home run mentality. Maybe I just wanted some change and felt that even if Thome may be the better hitter, he just brought nothing else and if he wasnt hitting hes a waste of space.

 

See that is the thing too badge. I agree with you. But I've long said I don't think anyone would had complained if it was Kubel and Cuddyer platooning at DH for us than Kotsay/Jones. I think fathom and/or Kalapse mentioned Branyan and Gomes. I like the speed/versatility at the DH spot than most.. but I would also like it if my hitter had a good OBP with a good OPS and average you know... a good history prior.

[iamshack]

See that is the thing too badge. I agree with you. But I've long said I don't think anyone would had complained if it was Kubel and Cuddyer platooning at DH for us than Kotsay/Jones. I think fathom and/or Kalapse mentioned Branyan and Gomes. I like the speed/versatility at the DH spot than most.. but I would also like it if my hitter had a good OBP with a good OPS and average you know... a good history prior.

The issue was not the striking out and lack of speed so much as it was we had multiple hitters underperforming last year. The combination of Dye, Q, PK, and Thome struggling at times, sometimes all at once, was why people got frustrated with it. But if these players hit to their capabilities, it is not really an issue. And considering that you knew Dye would be let go, and Thome would be used in less-situations, I still don't see this as an excuse.

 

You have to figure without PK and Q hitting this year, you're not going to win anything anyways. So there is nothing lost but $2M to Thome if you bring him back and things don't work out because the lineup is too old and crotchety.

[Soxbadger]

Its not a fluke?

 

How many other players over the age of 38 have put up numbers better stats when they were 38, than their previous 3 years?

 

That is what we call a fluke.

 

Anyways, its the past, I dont feel like arguing over something that nothing can be done about. Had the Sox signed Thome and he hit for nothing and wasted a roster space, most people would be saying why did we bring back an over age veteran who can only walk or hit a hr.

 

Thome's August obp was .298 last year. His September obp was 235. His April obp last year was .317

 

That is 3 months of obp around .300. So maybe over the entirety of last season he had a obp of 366, but for 3 months he was pretty brutal and there was nothing to suggest this year wouldnt be the same.

 

Hes doing great, good for him, but there was no promise of this. And every statistical trend of last year suggested that he was just a shell of his former self.

 

/shrugs

 

 

[SoxFan562004]

And this is not some "fluke" that is happening right now. Jimmy has done this for the last 15 years! It's not hindsight, it's not second guessing, it's what the statistics have been saying for basically his entire career. Why is that saying "after the fact" that the guy can still do it when he never gave us any statistically significant reason to doubt him?

Now I make this argument just to make it, but I do agree that his OBP alone is worth 2m, but his Aug/Sept last year were bad and that's not really a career trend for him... career:

 

http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/d/dunnad01.shtml

 

Aug OPS 1.008 and Sept .874

 

2009:

 

Aug .798 (2nd most PA he had in a month all season) and Sept in only 17 PAs in a pinch hit role .471

 

And the Sox saw him everyday until he went to the LAD, Herm might have been part of the discussion as well in deciding not to bring him back.

[SoxAce]

You have to figure without PK and Q hitting this year, you're not going to win anything anyways. So there is nothing lost but $2M to Thome if you bring him back and things don't work out because the lineup is too old and crotchety.

 

I would like to point out that I didn't want Thome back either cause I wanted more speed/versatility as well which I agreed with Badge on. The only reason I wanted Thome back (I believe it was around February) was KW still didn't get another bat which most of us thought he would do. When the Damon rumors hit, I don't think anyone here was even talking about Thome cause we actually had a shot (or thought we had a shot) of signing Damon. There were only some posters here that wanted Thome back from the START. Some jumped in around December, some around January, etc..

[iamshack]

Its not a fluke?

 

How many other players over the age of 38 have put up numbers better stats when they were 38, than their previous 3 years?

 

That is what we call a fluke.

 

Anyways, its the past, I dont feel like arguing over something that nothing can be done about. Had the Sox signed Thome and he hit for nothing and wasted a roster space, most people would be saying why did we bring back an over age veteran who can only walk or hit a hr.

 

Thome's August obp was .298 last year. His September obp was 235. His April obp last year was .317

 

That is 3 months of obp around .300. So maybe over the entirety of last season he had a obp of 366, but for 3 months he was pretty brutal and there was nothing to suggest this year wouldnt be the same.

 

Hes doing great, good for him, but there was no promise of this. And every statistical trend of last year suggested that he was just a shell of his former self.

 

/shrugs

 

So now you just start assuming that at the age of 38 a player will completely fall off the table statistically?

 

Thome has the classic "old man" skills, which are hitting for power and a great batters eye. Obviously the latter is dependent on the former, but until you actually see enough data to suggest the guy can no longer do it, it's irresponsible to insist that he won't simply because of age.

 

He certainly is a bit inconsistent. And he is aging, and he does need a lot more preparation to keep himself in shape. And he will be injured more because of tweaks and the like. But you're ignoring the fact that his skills were still incredibly undervalued by every statistical measure and there was no plan to replace him with a better statistical option. Had they chose to pass on him because they were going to bring in a similar player, a younger player with his type of ceiling statistically, I don't think anyone would have a problem with that.

 

 

 

[iamshack]

I would like to point out that I didn't want Thome back either cause I wanted more speed/versatility as well which I agreed with Badge on. The only reason I wanted Thome back (I believe it was around February) was KW still didn't get another bat which most of us thought he would do. When the Damon rumors hit, I don't think anyone here was even talking about Thome cause we actually had a shot (or thought we had a shot) of signing Damon. There were only some posters here that wanted Thome back from the START. Some jumped in around December, some around January, etc..

 

I don't think anyone is arguing that he was the ideal target this offseason. I was willing to let him walk as well. I think it was reasonable to assume he would decline a bit more, and I still think there is a chance that he may. But when it became apparent that there was no other option even in the stratosphere (until Damon), the decision to bring back Thome was so incredibly obvious that the Twins decided to sign him when they had a much lesser need for him than we did.

[iamshack]

Now I make this argument just to make it, but I do agree that his OBP alone is worth 2m, but his Aug/Sept last year were bad and that's not really a career trend for him... career:

 

http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/d/dunnad01.shtml

 

Aug OPS 1.008 and Sept .874

 

2009:

 

Aug .798 (2nd most PA he had in a month all season) and Sept in only 17 PAs in a pinch hit role .471

 

And the Sox saw him everyday until he went to the LAD, Herm might have been part of the discussion as well in deciding not to bring him back.

 

And this is probably a result of his overuse. He probably is not physically able to get 500 PAs anymore and be effective.

 

But I would certainly take 350-400 PAs for $2M!

[SoxFan562004]

I don't think anyone is arguing that he was the ideal target this offseason. I was willing to let him walk as well. I think it was reasonable to assume he would decline a bit more, and I still think there is a chance that he may. But when it became apparent that there was no other option even in the stratosphere (until Damon), the decision to bring back Thome was so incredibly obvious that the Twins decided to sign him when they had a much lesser need for him than we did.

unless KW thought the Sox were close enough as is to stay in contention, which by a miracle streak they are, and he liked his potential options for trade in mid-season better than anything out there at the time

[caulfield12]

And if you add O. Hudson/Thome to our lineup (taking them away from the Twins, of course) and also subtract Pierre/Teahen, it's pretty clear we would be much closer to first if not leading the division.

 

Not to mention a lot more payroll flexibility going forward to boot.

Edited June 30, 2010 by caulfield12

[iamshack]

unless KW thought the Sox were close enough as is to stay in contention, which by a miracle streak they are, and he liked his potential options for trade in mid-season better than anything out there at the time

But he didn't.

 

He even put Ozzie on the spot at Soxfest by bringing Thome back into the fold.

 

I think he knew that he could add someone if needed during the season, which is why he ultimately let Ozzie have his way. But my guess is he had a pretty good idea that this current situation might present itself and we could get burned pretty badly.

[Soxbadger]

Classic old man skills?

 

The only classic old man skills I know of at 38 are managing.

 

Dont just tell me about all these great over 38 players, show some examples of how players of 38 trend upward statistically. Show that as players get older they dont tend to trend downward.

 

Hell even use Frank Thomas, who was injured the 2 previous years and had a solid season for the A's at 38. He was a far better hitter career than Thome and his stats at 38 were well below his career average, but at least back up your argument some what.

[iamshack]

Classic old man skills?

 

The only classic old man skills I know of at 38 are managing.

 

Dont just tell me about all these great over 38 players, show some examples of how players of 38 trend upward statistically. Show that as players get older they dont tend to trend downward.

 

Hell even use Frank Thomas, who was injured the 2 previous years and had a solid season for the A's at 38. He was a far better hitter career than Thome and his stats at 38 were well below his career average, but at least back up your argument some what.

Well, I didn't phrase it formally, because I figured you would get the reference, but it has been pretty well proven that power and ability to judge the strike zone are the traits that hitters usually hold onto the longest.

 

And don't misinterpret my argument. I'm not arguing that Thome would have a better season than he did last season. I'm just saying that even with a reasonable decline, he would have a much better season than any of Ozzie's planned alternatives would have in the best case scenario.

 

Are you planning on addressing that point?

[Soxbadger]

How in the world am I supposed to know what Ozzie's planned alternatives were?

 

I know that hes done better than the White Sox DH's. But I have no idea what Ozzie had planned or Kenny, or whether their plan worked out or not. Thats a lot of assumptions I have no idea about.