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White Sox vs Royals - 7:10 PM


Chisoxfn

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The thing with SBs is that the reward is often too much to risk.

 

When you steal second from first with nobody out, your scoring probability goes up by about .25 runs. When you get caught stealing, in that same base/out state, your run expectancy goes from .95 to .297. So that's a risk of .65 runs. If you don't have a 75% success rate, it really does you no good.

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QUOTE (chw42 @ Jun 29, 2010 -> 06:36 PM)
The thing with SBs is that the reward is often too much to risk.

 

When you steal second from first with nobody out, your scoring probability goes up by about .25 runs. When you get caught stealing, in that same base/out state, your run expectancy goes from .95 to .297. So that's a risk of .65 runs. If you don't have a 75% success rate, it really does you no good.

But what about with 2 outs? What about with 2 outs and an 0-2 count?

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QUOTE (iamshack @ Jun 29, 2010 -> 07:38 PM)
But what about with 2 outs? What about with 2 outs and an 0-2 count?

 

I don't know if they keep the count, but with two outs, the sacrifice is a lot less. If you are on first with two out, your run expectancy is .244. If you get caught stealing, you risk .244 runs obviously. If you get second base, your gain is only .1 runs. So in that situation, it might be worth trying.

 

And you know the old saying about how you shouldn't make the first or last out at third? That makes a whole lot of sense.

 

If you make the first out at third, you lose .8 runs. If you make the last out, you lose .34.

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QUOTE (chw42 @ Jun 29, 2010 -> 06:40 PM)
I don't know if they keep the count, but with two outs, the sacrifice is a lot less. If you are on first with two out, your run expectancy is .244. If you get caught stealing, you risk .244 runs obviously. If you get second base, your gain is only .1 runs. So in that situation, it might be worth trying.

 

And you know the old saying about how you shouldn't make the first or last out at third? That makes a whole lot of sense.

 

If you make the first out at third, you lose .8 runs. If you make the last out, you lose .34.

So don't you need to adjust your percentages by when your guys get thrown out, rather than using some flat number?

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QUOTE (iamshack @ Jun 29, 2010 -> 07:43 PM)
So don't you need to adjust your percentages by when your guys get thrown out, rather than using some flat number?

 

Yeah, but usually, most steals are for second base and it's usually with no outs or one out, so we can basically assume. If you're around 75%, you're not hurting your team. If you're below that, don't really bother.

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