justBLAZE Posted June 30, 2010 Share Posted June 30, 2010 Is that a strike? Looks low. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mr_genius Posted June 30, 2010 Share Posted June 30, 2010 looked a little low Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
T R U Posted June 30, 2010 Share Posted June 30, 2010 QUOTE (JoeCoolMan24 @ Jun 29, 2010 -> 07:32 PM) Good job Hot Fire! When are you gonna let this go, it wont catch on.. ever Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mr_genius Posted June 30, 2010 Share Posted June 30, 2010 good eye. that was a ball. hawk doesn't know what he's talking about Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChiliIrishHammock24 Posted June 30, 2010 Share Posted June 30, 2010 There ya go Becks! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
justBLAZE Posted June 30, 2010 Share Posted June 30, 2010 Boom! Gordon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jphat007 Posted June 30, 2010 Share Posted June 30, 2010 Great job Gordon. I can't believe you have double the RBIs of Juan Pierre. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mr_genius Posted June 30, 2010 Share Posted June 30, 2010 nice. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chw42 Posted June 30, 2010 Share Posted June 30, 2010 (edited) The thing with SBs is that the reward is often too much to risk. When you steal second from first with nobody out, your scoring probability goes up by about .25 runs. When you get caught stealing, in that same base/out state, your run expectancy goes from .95 to .297. So that's a risk of .65 runs. If you don't have a 75% success rate, it really does you no good. Edited June 30, 2010 by chw42 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
iamshack Posted June 30, 2010 Share Posted June 30, 2010 Gordon looked bad during that at bat, and then all of the sudden he does that. I don't know what to think with this kid. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chw42 Posted June 30, 2010 Share Posted June 30, 2010 Keep it moving. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mr_genius Posted June 30, 2010 Share Posted June 30, 2010 a rare Juan Pierre RBI Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
iamshack Posted June 30, 2010 Share Posted June 30, 2010 QUOTE (chw42 @ Jun 29, 2010 -> 06:36 PM) The thing with SBs is that the reward is often too much to risk. When you steal second from first with nobody out, your scoring probability goes up by about .25 runs. When you get caught stealing, in that same base/out state, your run expectancy goes from .95 to .297. So that's a risk of .65 runs. If you don't have a 75% success rate, it really does you no good. But what about with 2 outs? What about with 2 outs and an 0-2 count? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kalapse Posted June 30, 2010 Share Posted June 30, 2010 Billy Butler is pretty awful in the field. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jphat007 Posted June 30, 2010 Share Posted June 30, 2010 Amazing!!!!!! We have seen something rare this baseball season! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
justBLAZE Posted June 30, 2010 Share Posted June 30, 2010 CST_SOX: Nats writers are reporting Sox have scouts at the Washington game tonight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChiliIrishHammock24 Posted June 30, 2010 Share Posted June 30, 2010 Bannister is really missing his spots. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
iamshack Posted June 30, 2010 Share Posted June 30, 2010 QUOTE (justBLAZE @ Jun 29, 2010 -> 06:38 PM) CST_SOX: Nats writers are reporting Sox have scouts at the Washington game tonight. I love this...like we don't know the book on Adam Dunn yet? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chw42 Posted June 30, 2010 Share Posted June 30, 2010 QUOTE (iamshack @ Jun 29, 2010 -> 07:38 PM) But what about with 2 outs? What about with 2 outs and an 0-2 count? I don't know if they keep the count, but with two outs, the sacrifice is a lot less. If you are on first with two out, your run expectancy is .244. If you get caught stealing, you risk .244 runs obviously. If you get second base, your gain is only .1 runs. So in that situation, it might be worth trying. And you know the old saying about how you shouldn't make the first or last out at third? That makes a whole lot of sense. If you make the first out at third, you lose .8 runs. If you make the last out, you lose .34. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
iamshack Posted June 30, 2010 Share Posted June 30, 2010 QUOTE (chw42 @ Jun 29, 2010 -> 06:40 PM) I don't know if they keep the count, but with two outs, the sacrifice is a lot less. If you are on first with two out, your run expectancy is .244. If you get caught stealing, you risk .244 runs obviously. If you get second base, your gain is only .1 runs. So in that situation, it might be worth trying. And you know the old saying about how you shouldn't make the first or last out at third? That makes a whole lot of sense. If you make the first out at third, you lose .8 runs. If you make the last out, you lose .34. So don't you need to adjust your percentages by when your guys get thrown out, rather than using some flat number? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chw42 Posted June 30, 2010 Share Posted June 30, 2010 Gavin is wearing Alexei out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChiliIrishHammock24 Posted June 30, 2010 Share Posted June 30, 2010 QUOTE (iamshack @ Jun 29, 2010 -> 07:40 PM) I love this...like we don't know the book on Adam Dunn yet? Maybe Adun Dunn +. Who knows. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chw42 Posted June 30, 2010 Share Posted June 30, 2010 QUOTE (iamshack @ Jun 29, 2010 -> 07:43 PM) So don't you need to adjust your percentages by when your guys get thrown out, rather than using some flat number? Yeah, but usually, most steals are for second base and it's usually with no outs or one out, so we can basically assume. If you're around 75%, you're not hurting your team. If you're below that, don't really bother. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
justBLAZE Posted June 30, 2010 Share Posted June 30, 2010 Great inning for Gavin. Cowley says that "KW is either pulling out all the stops for the bluff or is trying to get something done quickly for A Dunn." Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChiliIrishHammock24 Posted June 30, 2010 Share Posted June 30, 2010 QUOTE (justBLAZE @ Jun 29, 2010 -> 07:45 PM) Great inning for Gavin. Cowley says that "KW is either pulling out all the stops for the bluff or is trying to get something done quickly for A Dunn." The quicker the better. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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