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first half vs. second half...


Greg Hibbard

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Something that fills me with a lot of apprehension...the White Sox under Ozzie Guillen are are 345-229 (.601) as a first half team, and 214-232 (.480) as a second half team. That seems like a huge disparity.

 

Here's the breakdown:

2004 46-38 37-41

2005 57-29 42-34

2006 57-31 33-41

2007 39-47 33-43

2008 54-41 35-33

2009 45-43 34-40

 

I was surprised to learn that during the final four seasons under Jerry Manuel, the White Sox were an above-.500 team in the second half of every season.

 

2000 55-32 40-35

2001 41-44 42-35

2002 42-46 39-35

2003 45-49 41-27

 

Is there something about Ozzie's managing style, or the organizational approach in general that lends itself to first half success, and not second half success? It seems odd that over six seasons he's never had a better second half than first.

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I blame it all on the LaRocheFactor.

 

Well, in all honesty, that 2005 team, they simply HAD to cool off a bit, it happened the same way with the 2000 team as well when injuries started to take their toll.

 

Another reason would be playing most or all of the interleague games in the first half.

 

2006, same thing, the injuries and wear-and-tear on the pitching staff started to show in the second half of the season.

 

Not to mention the White Sox have had older, more veteran teams that were susceptible to wearing down in the Chicago summers.

 

Finally, Manuel didn't do such a great job in 2003, they still faded down the stretch when it really counted and the Twins blew past them.

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QUOTE (caulfield12 @ Jun 30, 2010 -> 02:56 PM)
I blame it all on the LaRocheFactor.

 

Well, in all honesty, that 2005 team, they simply HAD to cool off a bit, it happened the same way with the 2000 team as well when injuries started to take their toll.

 

Another reason would be playing most or all of the interleague games in the first half.

 

2006, same thing, the injuries and wear-and-tear on the pitching staff started to show in the second half of the season.

 

Not to mention the White Sox have had older, more veteran teams that were susceptible to wearing down in the Chicago summers.

 

Finally, Manuel didn't do such a great job in 2003, they still faded down the stretch when it really counted and the Twins blew past them.

 

Taking out the interleague games, the Sox have a .566 winning pct against the AL in first halves during guillen's tenure, and .480 during 2nd halves. Still seems like a huge difference, and still no 2nd half is better than its corresponding 1st. I agree that they have had some players prone to breakdown.

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QUOTE (Balta1701 @ Jun 30, 2010 -> 03:25 PM)
I don't know of any easy way to compile this, but is it possible to look at first/second half pitching and first/second half run production stats?

 

I'm wondering if there's an "overworked pitcher" effect somewhere buried in there.

 

http://www.baseball-reference.com/teams/sp...W&year=2009

http://www.baseball-reference.com/teams/sp...W&year=2009

 

as I said earlier today, b-r is f***ing amazing

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QUOTE (Balta1701 @ Jun 30, 2010 -> 03:25 PM)
I don't know of any easy way to compile this, but is it possible to look at first/second half pitching and first/second half run production stats?

 

I'm wondering if there's an "overworked pitcher" effect somewhere buried in there.

 

Team ERA

        Pre      Post
2004   4.59     5.26
2005   3.62     3.60
2006   4.44     4.82
2007   4.58     4.98
2008   3.55     4.77
2009   4.16     4.13

 

Runs Scored/Runs Allowed by Half

           Pre        Post
2004   462/403    403/428
2005   413/339    328/306
2006   520/415    348/379
2007   354/420    339/419
2008   465/383    346/346
2009   407/405    317/327

 

 

OPS by Half

        Pre    Post
2004   .812    .765
2005   .743    .752
2006   .829    .778
2007   .697    .750
2008   .779    .781
2009   .755    .723

Edited by Greg Hibbard
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