Putz for Closer

[chw42]

I don't know what they'll pay him, but if he doesn't get hurt, he'll have a job and be making enough money to pad his already bloated bank account.

 

He won't get more than $4 million out on the open market given his performance so far.

 

Go look at what Matt Capps did and then look at the contract he got. That's what Jenks will be getting.

Edited July 22, 2010 by chw42

[LittleHurt05]

I don't know what they'll pay him, but if he doesn't get hurt, he'll have a job and be making enough money to pad his already bloated bank account.

 

I'm not doubting he'll have a job either, just not the $10 million from the post you responded too. s***, even if he does get hurt, I bet you someone pays him too, just to take a chance on him when he gets healthy.

[southsider2k5]

We can have the Jenks arguments based on his performances, stats, and the like. The fat comments are just lazy. People can do better than that, at least I hope they can. It sure doesn't do anything to convince me personally that someone's argument is worth something if it leans on the physical stature of someone. Let all of the fat ass comments go, as it makes all of the intelligent arguments look bad here.

[Knackattack]

you can't be serious

 

stuff only gets you so far as a closer, you have to have the mindset to do it, and Sergio hasn't even pitched for a full year yet

I am serious. Lets see what the dude's got, stick him out there for a couple games and if he can shut the door, you've got a closer for the next few years.

[Balta1701]

I am serious. Lets see what the dude's got, stick him out there for a couple games and if he can shut the door, you've got a closer for the next few years.

We tried to stick him out there in the game at Minny that Jenks blew and he was rattled enough that Alexei came to the mound to try to calm him down and he looked like he almost bit Lexi's head off.

[noodle_53]

Man, I wish as a Royals fan that a closer was our only problem ...

 

Looking at his numbers, I'm surprised a bit by the animosity towards Jenks. The guy is striking out 11.0 guys per nine innings (his best mark since 2005).

 

From being on this board during Royals series, I think most folks here know about FIP and xFIP. If you look, his FIP is 2.78 and his xFIP is 2.82 (Both numbers are better than Joakim Soria's). That means, even though Jenks' ERA is above 5, he's gotten really unlucky (his BABIP is .402, which is ridiculously high).

 

I know he's blown two saves and the tendency is to overreact, but I definitely wouldn't write off a guy that is striking out 11 guys per nine innings.

 

[fathom]

Man, I wish as a Royals fan that a closer was our only problem ...

 

Looking at his numbers, I'm surprised a bit by the animosity towards Jenks. The guy is striking out 11.0 guys per nine innings (his best mark since 2005).

 

From being on this board during Royals series, I think most folks here know about FIP and xFIP. If you look, his FIP is 2.78 and his xFIP is 2.82 (Both numbers are better than Joakim Soria's). That means, even though Jenks' ERA is above 5, he's gotten really unlucky (his BABIP is .402, which is ridiculously high).

 

I know he's blown two saves and the tendency is to overreact, but I definitely wouldn't write off a guy that is striking out 11 guys per nine innings.

 

noodle, it's all about his stuff. It's obvious to anyone watching that he just isn't the same pitcher anymore. Even Ozzie called him out after the game last night. When you combine that with rumblings within the organization about Jenks' stubborness to throw more curves, you get a situation where there is a lot of doubt.

[lostfan]

It's ironic that people don't seem to know what an elite closer looks like since Bobby used to actually be one.

[Milkman delivers]

We can have the Jenks arguments based on his performances, stats, and the like. The fat comments are just lazy. People can do better than that, at least I hope they can. It sure doesn't do anything to convince me personally that someone's argument is worth something if it leans on the physical stature of someone. Let all of the fat ass comments go, as it makes all of the intelligent arguments look bad here.

 

Bobby Jenks isn't just fat or chubby. He's obese, and nobody will ever convince me that it isn't detrimental to his pitching performances.

[RockRaines]

noodle, it's all about his stuff. It's obvious to anyone watching that he just isn't the same pitcher anymore. Even Ozzie called him out after the game last night. When you combine that with rumblings within the organization about Jenks' stubborness to throw more curves, you get a situation where there is a lot of doubt.

Meh, its not like he made terrible pitches last night. Figgins somehow got inside of a up and in fastball and the walk off hit was off the end of the bat. I dont think his stuff is bad, but his pitch selection has been.

[chw42]

Man, I wish as a Royals fan that a closer was our only problem ...

 

Looking at his numbers, I'm surprised a bit by the animosity towards Jenks. The guy is striking out 11.0 guys per nine innings (his best mark since 2005).

 

From being on this board during Royals series, I think most folks here know about FIP and xFIP. If you look, his FIP is 2.78 and his xFIP is 2.82 (Both numbers are better than Joakim Soria's). That means, even though Jenks' ERA is above 5, he's gotten really unlucky (his BABIP is .402, which is ridiculously high).

 

I know he's blown two saves and the tendency is to overreact, but I definitely wouldn't write off a guy that is striking out 11 guys per nine innings.

 

There's a lot of saber-people on this board, myself included. We're well aware of Jenks' good peripherals.

 

The issue here is that he's getting hit very hard. The reason as to why his FIP and xFIP are so low is that he's not giving up home runs. This is due to a unsustainable and abnormal 20% FB rate. His LD rate and GB rate consist of nearly 70% of his batted balls in play, 22% of them being line drives, the highest mark of his career.

 

That's the reason for the .402 BABIP. The high LD and GB rates result in a tERA of 3.66.

 

Could it be bad luck? Maybe. But if you're just laying a flat 94 MPH fastball in there, you'd be lucky for it to be an out.

 

Randy Wells has had a similar case of this year. His LD rate was insanely high, but he maintained good peripherals.

Edited July 22, 2010 by chw42

[noodle_53]

There's a lot of saber-people on this board, myself included. We're well aware of Jenks' good peripherals.

 

The issue here is that he's getting hit very hard. The reason as to why his FIP and xFIP are so low is that he's not giving up home runs. This is due to a unsustainable and abnormal 20% FB rate. His LD rate and GB rate consist of nearly 70% of his batted balls in play, 22% of them being line drives, the highest mark of his career.

 

That's the reason for the .402 BABIP. The high LD and GB rates result in a tERA of 3.66.

 

Could it be bad luck? Maybe. But if you're just laying a flat 94 MPH fastball in there, you'd be lucky for it to be an out.

 

Randy Wells has had a similar case of this year. His LD rate was insanely high, but he maintained good peripherals.

 

Good response, chw42.

 

You guys see Jenks everyday and I don't, but it's still tough for me to think a guy that is striking out 11 per 9 has totally lost his stuff. If he had, folks wouldn't be swinging and missing so often.

[bschmaranz]

The poll on CTL was who would you like to see as closer.

 

50% Putz

28% Jenks

20% Thornton

2% Sergio

[fathom]

Meh, its not like he made terrible pitches last night. Figgins somehow got inside of a up and in fastball and the walk off hit was off the end of the bat. I dont think his stuff is bad, but his pitch selection has been.

 

That final pitch was a massive hanger. He also got away with a bad fastball that Gutierrez fouled straight back. As Ozzie said, the Mariners hit the ball good against him the night before also.

[chw42]

Good response, chw42.

 

You guys see Jenks everyday and I don't, but it's still tough for me to think a guy that is striking out 11 per 9 has totally lost his stuff. If he had, folks wouldn't be swinging and missing so often.

 

He's still got good velocity most of the time. His failures are a result of bad location and bad pitch selection this year.

Edited July 22, 2010 by chw42

[greg775]

Looking at his numbers, I'm surprised a bit by the animosity towards Jenks. The guy is striking out 11.0 guys per nine innings (his best mark since 2005).

 

From being on this board during Royals series, I think most folks here know about FIP and xFIP. If you look, his FIP is 2.78 and his xFIP is 2.82 (Both numbers are better than Joakim Soria's). That means, even though Jenks' ERA is above 5, he's gotten really unlucky (his BABIP is .402, which is ridiculously high).

 

I know he's blown two saves and the tendency is to overreact, but I definitely wouldn't write off a guy that is striking out 11 guys per nine innings.

 

Noodle is da man.

Great great post. Animosity is a good word, a nice word compared to some of the bombs being tossed Bobby's way.

If you check the posts during Bobby's hot save streak, I repeatedly pointed out there would be an amazing meltdown when he finally blew one. He's blown two and the eruption has been of the monumental variety. I've said all along I wouldn't mind if Ozzie let one of our other two capable relievers (Matt, Putz) close once in a while and now he's going to do that. Hopefully when Bobby gets used again he'll do well. Yes he got hit hard in Seattle. He actually hasn't pitched too well since the family emergency.

 

I'd be willing to abide by starting a thread called Jenks hate and ordering everybody to put anti Jenks comments or pro Jenks comments in ONE FILE.

But that would have to include the game threads or it wouldn't work. Many hate Jenks. A couple of us support what he's done. I think ALL Jenks comments should go in one thread.

Edited July 23, 2010 by greg775

[caulfield12]

Greg, I really don't "get" why you enjoy defending him so much...?

 

Just to be against the crowd or counter-intuitive?

 

You were here (I'm guessing) when Takatsu was around, Koch, Foulke, Howry, etc. Some of them, like Keith, basically removed themselves from the closer's role...others lost it because their stuff either fell off, the league figured them out or they weren't fooling anyone anymore (Koch and Shingo).

 

Nobody HATES Bobby Jenks. I don't think I've honestly felt that towards any member of the White Sox. We can dislike them as players, feel they're being utilized incorrectly by Ozzie or overexposed, but the fact of the matter is that Jenks is making millions of dollars, he should be held accountable for his physical conditioning if it starts to affect his ability to pitch well. I'll give you an example, Jenks can't field his position (see numerous bunt attempts) or hold runners on. When he was very good, that didn't matter, he had the stuff to pitch around it, but he no longer has that dominating arsenal, and/or he refuses to use it due to pain or injury concerns. You don't think that getting in much better shape would allow him to "help himself" out on the mound, especially in terms of fielding? Isn't he being disrespectful to his teammates by caring more about his goatee than he does about holding runners on?

 

We just have to face facts. He's been very lucky so far this season, for the most part. Now in no way, shape or form are Thornton, Putz or Santos going to be lock-down closers either, but they at least deserve the opportunity to try, if for no other reason than if the team and every Sox fan expects a blown save or 2-3 runners to reach every time Jenks goes out there, it's going to have a snowball effect on the rest of the season.....even if we had Prince Fielder, a bullpen with Jenks as closer only holding 60-75% of the the leads (and most of them have been 2 or 3 runs, I think) is simply not going to work. This team will be destroyed psychologically if we continue to blow at least TWO games that are already won per week. It can't go on.

 

Yes, everyday and every game in baseball is a new chance, a new opportunity to prove yourself, but if you had to bet your house and life savings right now, would you bet that Jenks would have a sub 3.00 ERA going forward or would you bet with the house money that he would be at 5+ going forward?

 

The last time he recovered, but at that point, he wasn't pitching for a first place team with every loss magnified.

Edited July 23, 2010 by caulfield12

[greg775]

he should be held accountable for his physical conditioning if it starts to affect his ability to pitch well. I'll give you an example, Jenks can't field his position (see numerous bunt attempts) or hold runners on.

 

Caufield I like your post. You make some great points. I never have a problem with posts like yours.

[caulfield12]

And I think everyone on this board would agree we would simply LOVE to see Bobby Jenks pitch like he's CAPABLE of pitching.

 

Because without him, that creates yet another issue on this team that already has to deal with the loss of Peavy, Carlos Quentin's nagging injuries, the lack of production from Kotsay/Jones at DH, etc.

 

I would guess that MOST Sox fans don't believe he will be effective in any other role than closer...some think he might pout or pull a Swisher, who knows...the only thing we can say with certainty is that it would be better if we could leave Putz and Thornton in their current roles. Otherwise, you have to make someone do something they're not comfortable with, and we saw how that failed before when Dotel in particular was pushed back into more critical situations when Linebrink went down in 2008.

 

I don't know how we are in first place, to tell the truth. Just that great run of starting pitching, 32 quality starts in 38 tries. Ozzie has done quite a commendable job keeping this team together, and I was one of quite a few (I won't say many) who wanted him gone and who felt he had lost this team late in 2009 and then early in 2010.

 

Ozzie has always proven to be resilient, and never a quitter, at his best when everyone is betting against him and waiting for his downfall. Just like in late 2008 when we had lost Crede, Linebrink, Quentin and Contreras, we've had to improvise and the odds still favor the Twins and perhaps even the Tigers unless KW makes a season-changing move that will affect this franchise for the next half decade. Personally, I wouldn't want to make that decision, because our starting pitching, bullpen and defense are good enough to compete with the Rays, Rangers and Yankees in the playoffs. Still, I'd rather go with what we have and let the chips falls where they may than knock ourselves out of contention for 2011-12-13 by trading away Hudson, Viciedo and Flowers. We still have no idea how/when Peavy will recover, it's too risky to trade Hudson, despite the glowing medical reports, we're dealing with a unique injury for a pitcher, we should be careful not to thin out our pitching depth.

Edited July 23, 2010 by caulfield12

[Quin]

Caulfield laying down great arguments. Also, the return of the Jose avatar!

 

Greg, in the other thread where I said I give Bobby a C, I change that to a C- for a few reasons.

 

1) We're in a tight pennant race.

2) His three setup men, Putz, Thornton, and Sergio have an A+, A, and A- respectively.

3) He is capable to be a far better pitcher, it just seems like he refuses to as caulfield pointed out.

[greg775]

The last two posts by cauf and quin are excellent.

I respect both posts. Caufield makes excellent points and I agree we should at the least have a closer by committee, even give Putz the chance right now because he has earned it to close.

What I don't agree with and argue vehemently (sp) is when people make quick rash bold statements blasting Bobby. Those I stand up against.

I can't argue with anything cauf. said and you didn't have to list all these stats.

 

My point is I've said for weeks I am in favor of Oz riding the hot hand so to speak. I have not been against closer by committee. But what gets me going is when people either just freak out at the blown save (s*** in game threads they were freaking out when Bobby would go 2-0 on a hitter or give up a baserunner and this was when he was automatic a few short weeks ago).

I can't stand the simplistic bashing of a guy who fails on a given night and that's when I speak up.

I like the last two posts a lot and they are of the anti Jenks variety.

Anybody that simply roars and puffs their chest out and say they want Bobby to have his arm fall off or harm himself ... yes I will speak up against.

 

I also really do feel people personally want him to fail. I mean when he was on that hot streak I was just waiting for his first blown save ... people even baited me in game threads saying, 'Greg you better hope Bobby saves this game.' People I truly believe want him to fail enough just so they can get rid of him from the closer's role and they dont have to think about Bobby anymore.

 

That said, nice post, caufield.

 

I also agree he may be fatter than usual, but when I pointed that out, I was ordered to quit calling him FAT BOBBY!!!!

Yes there were several exclamation points. From what I can tell you are the first to point out how his fatness seems to be hurting the club (in terms of bunts, which especially showed up vs. Seattle. I said Wilbur Wood got bunted out of baseball in the thread where i was lambasted for calling him Fat Bobby).

 

GO SOX!

Edited July 23, 2010 by greg775

[BearSox]

If I ever again hear someone say that Bobby Jenks has been unlucky because of some BS saber stats, my head might explode. Outside of a stretch in June, Jenks has been awful and consistently getting hit HARD.

[ScottyDo]

So stoked for closer-by-committee! I'm pretty convinced that the only (or, main) reason CBC has failed in the past is because teams only try it when they have exclusively horrible bullpen options. Our bullpen options are great, and I think this is destined to succeed with flying colors.

[chw42]

If I ever again hear someone say that Bobby Jenks has been unlucky because of some BS saber stats, my head might explode. Outside of a stretch in June, Jenks has been awful and consistently getting hit HARD.

 

Now you're jumping to the opposite side of the spectrum. Nobody's really saying he's unlucky because of some BS sabr stat, in fact, if you actually take everything into consideration, Jenks has pretty much deserved to be hit hard.

[LittleHurt05]

So stoked for closer-by-committee! I'm pretty convinced that the only (or, main) reason CBC has failed in the past is because teams only try it when they have exclusively horrible bullpen options. Our bullpen options are great, and I think this is destined to succeed with flying colors.

 

I agree, I see no problem with using Putz & Thornton or even Jenks depending on the situation. The most recent CBC this year was the Orioles, and that failed cause their best reliever was Will f***ing Ohman. It can work with good relievers.