Magglio Ordonez Seriously Injured

[bigruss]

In other words, he's bad.

 

He's the Jim Hendry of the American League.

He knows how to build a farm system.

[SoxAce]

In other words, he's bad.

 

He's the Jim Hendry of the American League.

 

No. He is either a rich man's Jim Hendry or Jim Hendry is a poor man's Dave Dombrowski. Dave is a much better GM. Hendry would never have the balls to sell high on his prospects to get a Miguel Cabrera type superstar.

Edited July 25, 2010 by J.Reedfan8

[qwerty]

Yes, probably, although they probably won't save as much as many will think at first. He's actually had a nice year this year, and while he certainly is not worth $15 million, an .875 OPS player to replace him probably won't come cheaply...My guess is it probably saves them somewhere in the realm of $4-5 million next year, if that.

 

However, should they need to trade for someone to replace him this year, and pay for that guy too, they probably end of negating all of that money anyways.

 

No team is handing ordonez 10 million plus dollars. The only way he will sniff that amount is in a two year deal. Ordonez will be 37 by the time spring comes along... and coming off of a pretty terrible injury. Ordonez, in general, at this point in his career is considered to be a pretty bad fielder. Though far from atrocious. The ankle injury will almost assuredly hamper him in the field. Thus, an already bad fielder, will likely be even worse (please no one bring up a half of a seasons worth of uzr, +/-, etc). That's not even accounting for his bat, and if it will be the same again... at an already advanced stage in his career. If he was 28, i would say sure, not as much of a worry, but nearly ten years worth of wear is a ton in comparison.

 

I would be shocked if ordonez is given anymore than 7 a season. A one year deal with an team option seems most likely to myself. A strict one year deal can't be written off either. Incentives would be included either way... with a player in his situation.

 

I'm fully putting into account the nice season ordonez has had himself.

Edited July 25, 2010 by qwerty

[iamshack]

No team is handing ordonez 10 million plus dollars. The only way he will sniff that amount is in a two year deal. Ordonez will be 37 by the time spring comes along... and coming off of a pretty terrible injury. Ordonez, in general, at this point in his career is considered to be a pretty bad fielder. Though far from atrocious. The ankle injury will almost assuredly hamper him in the field. Thus, an already bad fielder, will likely be even worse (please no one bring up a half of a seasons worth of uzr, +/-, etc). That's not even accounting for his bat, and if it will be the same again... at an already advanced stage in his career. If he was 28, i would say sure, not as much of a worry, but nearly ten years worth of wear is a ton in comparison.

 

I would be shocked if ordonez is given anymore than 7 a season. A one year deal with an team option seems most likely to myself. A strict one year deal can't be written off either. Incentives would be included either way... with a player in his situation.

 

I'm fully putting into account the nice season ordonez has had himself.

I'm not arguing so much what Ordonez will make next year as much as what it might take to sign a player who has put up similar production to what he has done this year for them thus far.

 

Assuming they replace him via trade or FA in the offseason, my guess is the cost for a player putting up similar offensive production as he might have been expected to next year (without having been injured) will most likely cost them upwards of $8-10 million. Maybe they luck out and find a bargain for $5 million or so, but I wouldn't count on it. Factor that in with losing his production this season and possibly having to go out and acquire another bat for the remainder of this season, and what it will cost them in prospects and increased payroll, and my guess is they won't save a whole lot of money by avoiding the contract from vesting in this manner.

 

Now if they had a replacement in house, yes, it would have been a blessing. But I'm not sure they do.

Edited July 25, 2010 by iamshack

[caulfield12]

Raburn and Clete Thomas put up some very decent numbers last year in their outfield.

 

Same thing with Boesch, although he's been almost amazing, this year.

 

Maybe they can't go to the well one more time and expect an 875 OPS, but I think a range of at least 775-825 OPS from their farm system would be expected. And yes, I know Raburn and Avila have been huge disappointments this year coming off 2009.

[Dick Allen]

Detroit sucks.

[Benchwarmerjim]

For whatever reason, they've gotten through to Pavano. From one of biggest jokes and worst contracts in baseball to probably their co-#1 starter along with Liriano. As much as their fanbase has been on SLOW-BAKE-BURN this season (along with Rick Anderson and GM Smith for their contracts), Pavano and Liriano have certainly been somewhat unexpected success stories which have somewhat mitigated the drop off from Kubel, Cuddyer, Morneau and Mauer. Of course, having Nathan go down early didn't help matters either, they still have some shakiness in their middle relief corps.

 

that is pretty good analysis of the Twins. The only thing you left out is the Delmon Young (!) is pretty much carried the team since Morneau went down

[Kyyle23]

I watched the replay of Magglios slide, I couldnt tell where he did it or how he did it. He didnt even really look like he was in pain when the camera zoomed in on him

[southsider2k5]

I know he shouldn't have the final say...but KW did give him the final say on this.

 

Which makes it Kennys fault even more.

[southsider2k5]

Detroit sucks.

 

I agree. I have zero fear of them, especially with this run of injuries (Ordonez, Inge, Zumaya).

 

I don't know how big Dombrowskis' cajones are, but they could make a big bounce back next year if they turned into sellers for some of their guys to restock the system. Plus with the salary they are clearing anyway, they could hit the free agency market hard still.

[Kyyle23]

I agree. I have zero fear of them, especially with this run of injuries (Ordonez, Inge, Zumaya, Guillen).

 

I don't know how big Dombrowskis' cajones are, but they could make a big bounce back next year if they turned into sellers for some of their guys to restock the system. Plus with the salary they are clearing anyway, they could hit the free agency market hard still.

 

also went on the DL today with a calf injury(big surprise)

[caulfield12]

that is pretty good analysis of the Twins. The only thing you left out is the Delmon Young (!) is pretty much carried the team since Morneau went down

 

The irony is that Garza is the type of pitcher they need for success in the playoffs...but they wouldn't be able to reach the playoffs without Delmon.

 

Still, for all of Young's offensive prowess, the Twins' defense has fallen off greatly with Kubel and Young playing in the OF together and Cuddyer playing either 3B or 1B. Are you in the Valencia camp or not? Seems like Gardenhire won't play him regularly, just like Guillen consistently playing Kotsay over Viciedo. So I guess Mark Kostay=Lil Nick Punto for White Sox fans this season.

 

FWIW, the Tribune baseball writer gave the Twins the highest probability (2-1 odds) of getting back to their division lead, compared to the Red Sox, Phillies and Angels, three other disappointing teams.

Edited July 25, 2010 by caulfield12

[scenario]

Maggs' injury is the type of event that could functionally end his career.

 

Think about it. He's the same age as Dye. And about just as mobile... before the injury.

 

Pretty good chance he'll be relegated to DH duties from now on.

 

So, what's the market going to be in 2011 for a 37 year old right-handed DH coming off a serious injury?

 

If he's not willing to take a serious pay cut he could find himself in the same position as Dye next year.

Edited July 25, 2010 by scenario

[Kyyle23]

Maggs' injury is the type of event that could functionally end his career.

 

Think about it. He's the same age as Dye. And about just as mobile... before the injury.

 

Pretty good chance he'll be relegated to DH duties from now on.

 

So, what's the market going to be in 2011 for a 37 year old right-handed DH coming off a serious injury?

 

If he's not willing to take a serious pay cut he could find himself in the same position as Dye next year.

 

 

The one good thing Maggs still has going for him is that he is an amazing hitter. Dye fell off offensively so hard last year that he couldnt find the job he wanted

[chw42]

Well, with Minnesota seemingly jumping up as the favorite to challenge the Sox with Ordonez and Inge down, it seemingly will come down to pitching (as always):

 

Garcia/Hudson versus whatever they can get from Duensing, Slowey, Blackburn and Baker. For the moment, you don't see them trading for Oswalt (although I wouldn't be shocked, either) or Haren, I think they're pretty confident about Duensing after 2009 down the stretch.

 

For whatever reason, they've gotten through to Pavano. From one of biggest jokes and worst contracts in baseball to probably their co-#1 starter along with Liriano. As much as their fanbase has been on SLOW-BAKE-BURN this season (along with Rick Anderson and GM Smith for their contracts), Pavano and Liriano have certainly been somewhat unexpected success stories which have somewhat mitigated the drop off from Kubel, Cuddyer, Morneau and Mauer. Of course, having Nathan go down early didn't help matters either, they still have some shakiness in their middle relief corps.

 

One of those guys don't belong in that sentence.

 

If he didn't get hurt, he'd easily be the MVP favorite right now.

[Kyyle23]

One of those guys don't belong in that sentence.

 

If he didn't get hurt, he'd easily be the MVP favorite right now.

 

 

I think this time he is spending on the DL could be explained as a dropoff in Minnesota's production, not necessarily Morneau specifically

[scenario]

The one good thing Maggs still has going for him is that he is an amazing hitter. Dye fell off offensively so hard last year that he couldnt find the job he wanted

 

Actually Dye had only two really bad months last year... August and September. He was playing great before that. Should have made the all-star team.

 

And over the last 5 years, Dye has been a very similar and probably more productive hitter than Maggs.

 

Anyway... I'm not trying to make a Dye vs. Maggs argument... just suggesting that the market for Maggs could turn out to be very limited (and similar to Dye) next year.

 

 

[caulfield12]

One of those guys don't belong in that sentence.

 

If he didn't get hurt, he'd easily be the MVP favorite right now.

 

Yes, I guess I was already anticipating a longer DL stay than initially expected, based on the Twins' response and these similar types of situations in the recent past with baseball players.

 

Morneau was clearly one of the Top 5 MVP candidates had a vote been taken a month ago.

 

Unfortunately (or fortunately for the Sox, I guess), he's getting a reputation, along with Mauer, for being somewhat injury-prone and "ouchy." Not quite like Carlos Quentin, however, in that regard.

Edited July 25, 2010 by caulfield12

[caulfield12]

also went on the DL today with a calf injury(big surprise)

 

Quietly, Will Ryan, Jeff Larish, Sizemore, Kelly, Raburn (interestingly hitting 3rd today), Austin Jackson, Brennan Boesch, Scherzer, Ryan Perry and Porcello make this one of the younger teams in the majors.

 

Quite an influx of young talent. Just a year or so ago, they were running Josh Anderson and Clete Thomas out there in the OF as well.

 

Still, all the atrocious contracts and the 2009 fadeout have diminished the success enjoyed since the 06 World Series appearance. But after building the Marlins and playing important roles with the White Sox and Expos, I would never agree with comparing Dombrowski with Dayton Moore or even Mark Shapiro.

 

He gave up Jairr Jurgens, but that package for Cabrera (based mostly on Maybin and Miller) turned out to be quite a steal...and the flipping of Matt Joyce for Edwin Jackson for Scherzer, even flipping Granderson for Austin Jackson has turned out to be a steal and created payroll flexibility.

[Benchwarmerjim]

Are you in the Valencia camp or not? Seems like Gardenhire won't play him regularly, just like Guillen consistently playing Kotsay over Viciedo. So I guess Mark Kostay=Lil Nick Punto for White Sox fans this season.

 

While I dont think he is going to be a power threat, he take good at bats and is a better offensive threat than Punto. He looks competent in the field, so I say play him as much as possible.

 

 

Back to the Tigers, with Maggs and Guillen both hurt now, its just not looking good for them. Do they even have enough depth to trade for some help this year?