Jump to content

Numbers please


BamaDoc

Recommended Posts

Those of you who can translate AAA stats to probable major league stats .....would a platoon of Gartrell and either De Azza/Reed really give much different numbers than what Kotsay and Jones provide. The AAA guys hit well against the opposite pitcher. I realize we won't cut vets but I would like to see the analasis.

 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

De Aza vs RHP in AAA - .308/.401/.451/.852

Gartrell vs LHP in AAA - .302/.380/.552/.932

 

and their major league equivalent (according to minor league splits)

 

De Aza vs RHP - .255/.338/.380/.718

Gartrell vs LHP - .255/.324/.429/.753

 

I could see them outproducing those numbers, but it's not an upgrade by any stretch of the imagination.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

QUOTE (witesoxfan @ Jul 26, 2010 -> 02:19 PM)
De Aza vs RHP in AAA - .308/.401/.451/.852

Gartrell vs LHP in AAA - .302/.380/.552/.932

 

and their major league equivalent (according to minor league splits)

 

De Aza vs RHP - .255/.338/.380/.718

Gartrell vs LHP - .255/.324/.429/.753

 

I could see them outproducing those numbers, but it's not an upgrade by any stretch of the imagination.

 

Would you mind to share a website or forumula you used to do this?

Link to comment
Share on other sites

http://www.minorleaguesplits.com/

 

Type in any player's name, or look through teams' rosters using the team names below.

 

On any player page, click "mle," and it will adjust everything from that players current production to the majors.

 

It's obviously not an exact science (which is best seen in Buck Coats' line, where he has an equivalent overall line of .274/.333/.374/.707 with 2 HR on the year, yet his splits suggest he would have 1 HR against LHP and 2 HR against RHP with a .728 OPS against both), but it gives a pretty good idea of what a player would do. Hudson's MLE FIP is 4.51, for example, so it should be reasonably expected that he will pitch fairly well for the remainder of the season.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

QUOTE (witesoxfan @ Jul 26, 2010 -> 02:46 PM)
http://www.minorleaguesplits.com/

 

Type in any player's name, or look through teams' rosters using the team names below.

 

On any player page, click "mle," and it will adjust everything from that players current production to the majors.

 

It's obviously not an exact science (which is best seen in Buck Coats' line, where he has an equivalent overall line of .274/.333/.374/.707 with 2 HR on the year, yet his splits suggest he would have 1 HR against LHP and 2 HR against RHP with a .728 OPS against both), but it gives a pretty good idea of what a player would do. Hudson's MLE FIP is 4.51, for example, so it should be reasonably expected that he will pitch fairly well for the remainder of the season.

 

Wasn't Hudson's expected Major League FIP about 3.60 last season?

Edited by chw42
Link to comment
Share on other sites

QUOTE (chw42 @ Jul 26, 2010 -> 03:11 PM)
That's cause he's been terrible this year. Go look at his projections last year.

 

Well if he can't make the transition to AAA how is he suppose to hit ML pitching? I wish him well, I'm just saddened by the likes of him and JorDanks, both were suppose to be stars.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

QUOTE (justBLAZE @ Jul 26, 2010 -> 03:13 PM)
Well if he can't make the transition to AAA how is he suppose to hit ML pitching? I wish him well, I'm just saddened by the likes of him and JorDanks, both were suppose to be stars.

That is not how it worked. Flowers was promoted to AAA mid-last-season, and put up a .286/.364/.438/.803, which is decent for just being promoted. And his power is actually up this year. But in this past offseason, he apparently went on his own to an old coach for help, changed his approach, and it f***ed him up good. Now he's trying to transition back to what he was doing previously, and its not going well.

 

Basically, his head got f***ed with. I think he's likely to improve before the season is out.

 

 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

QUOTE (justBLAZE @ Jul 26, 2010 -> 09:13 PM)
Well if he can't make the transition to AAA how is he suppose to hit ML pitching? I wish him well, I'm just saddened by the likes of him and JorDanks, both were suppose to be stars.

 

Jordan Danks was never supposed to be a star.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

QUOTE (NorthSideSox72 @ Jul 26, 2010 -> 03:20 PM)
That is not how it worked. Flowers was promoted to AAA mid-last-season, and put up a .286/.364/.438/.803, which is decent for just being promoted. And his power is actually up this year. But in this past offseason, he apparently went on his own to an old coach for help, changed his approach, and it f***ed him up good. Now he's trying to transition back to what he was doing previously, and its not going well.

 

Basically, his head got f***ed with. I think he's likely to improve before the season is out.

 

I don't know why he saw the need to change his approach. His approach was perfectly fine before. He could probably put up Mike Napoli-like numbers minus the huge power. He still has good power, just not .500 SLG type of pop.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

QUOTE (chw42 @ Jul 26, 2010 -> 03:22 PM)
I don't know why he saw the need to change his approach. His approach was perfectly fine before. He could probably put up Mike Napoli-like numbers minus the huge power. He still has good power, just not .500 SLG type of pop.

His year this year has been really erratic, which makes me tend to think the numbers themselves are pretty meaningless (looking at just this year I mean). I'd bet goes on a run before the season is out, maybe plays some fall ball and rakes.

 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

QUOTE (chw42 @ Jul 26, 2010 -> 04:22 PM)
I don't know why he saw the need to change his approach. His approach was perfectly fine before. He could probably put up Mike Napoli-like numbers minus the huge power. He still has good power, just not .500 SLG type of pop.

If he could put together a 25% decrease in his strikeouts, without sacrificing much power, that'd be an enormous improvement in his overall numbers. There was plenty of reason to change his approach

Link to comment
Share on other sites

QUOTE (chw42 @ Jul 26, 2010 -> 02:47 PM)
Wasn't Hudson's expected Major League FIP about 3.60 last season?

 

Yes, but he also had a phenomenal year last year, and also pitched at 4 different levels. I think his projection this year is much more valid simply because he has faced more advanced hitters this year on a consistent basis. He will be a good pitcher. Floyd put up a 3.56 FIP in 2007, with a MLE to 4.28, and in 3 seasons he's pretty much fulfilled that potential and more. If Hudson can maintain some type of growth similar to that, I think he can probably be a 4.50 FIP pitcher next year, and into the 4.00-4.25 FIP in 2012. He's going to go through growing pains though, as most young pitchers do.

 

QUOTE (justBLAZE @ Jul 26, 2010 -> 03:10 PM)
0.186/0.280/0.349/0.629

 

Your starting catcher of the future :o

 

QUOTE (chw42 @ Jul 26, 2010 -> 03:11 PM)
That's cause he's been terrible this year. Go look at his projections last year.

 

As OzzieBall pointed out a couple weeks ago too, he's been terribly unlucky this year, especially in Charlotte (and he's been a bit lucky on the road, though not to near the extent). If you adjust his statistics for luck this year, he's at .254/.362/.512/.874 on the year, which is probably good for a .725-.750 OPS in the majors. I'm not too worried about Flowers. He seems as though he's going to be a TTO player in the majors (walk, strikeout or homer)...if given the starting job out of Spring next year, I would imagine he'd probably put up something like .220/.300/.425 with close to 20 homers.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

QUOTE (justBLAZE @ Jul 26, 2010 -> 03:39 PM)
Hell that's AJ like (this year) with more power.

 

That's pretty much why Flowers is hard to deal at this point...he's a cheap alternative to AJ and he could produce much better offensively. It depends on how the club feels about him handling the pitching staff.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

QUOTE (witesoxfan @ Jul 26, 2010 -> 07:19 PM)
De Aza vs RHP in AAA - .308/.401/.451/.852

Gartrell vs LHP in AAA - .302/.380/.552/.932

 

and their major league equivalent (according to minor league splits)

 

De Aza vs RHP - .255/.338/.380/.718

Gartrell vs LHP - .255/.324/.429/.753

 

I could see them outproducing those numbers, but it's not an upgrade by any stretch of the imagination.

 

 

Thanks for the numbers. They would outperform Kotsay and Jones as they have been used if the Rookies platooned.

Kotsay . 220/.306/.353/.659

Jones .203/.307/.430/.737

Link to comment
Share on other sites

QUOTE (BigSqwert @ Jul 26, 2010 -> 04:46 PM)
He'd still put up better numbers than Kotsay while on the DL.

 

Mark Kotsay's been worth -0.8 WAR so far. Quite frankly, everybody that hasn't played for the White Sox this year has been better than him.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

QUOTE (chw42 @ Jul 26, 2010 -> 04:48 PM)
Mark Kotsay's been worth -0.8 WAR so far. Quite frankly, everybody that hasn't played for the White Sox this year has been better than him.

 

I can now say I'm worth more than Mark Kotsay! Where's my million bucks?

Link to comment
Share on other sites

QUOTE (Balta1701 @ Jul 26, 2010 -> 04:45 PM)
Worth noting that De Aza is on the DL?

 

No he's been back and playing since 7/19. He's 12 for 28 over that span with two doubles and two triples.

 

The splits mentioned earlier (OPS .852), do not include his last 9 at bats. He's 6 for 9 in those, and his OPS against righties is now .909

 

He's clearly better than Kotsay and Pierre. There is no one for whom this information could matter less than our manager.

Edited by Vance Law
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Join the conversation

You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.

Guest
Reply to this topic...

×   Pasted as rich text.   Paste as plain text instead

  Only 75 emoji are allowed.

×   Your link has been automatically embedded.   Display as a link instead

×   Your previous content has been restored.   Clear editor

×   You cannot paste images directly. Upload or insert images from URL.

  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    • No registered users viewing this page.
×
×
  • Create New...