Athletics (Braden 5-7, 3.77) @ White Sox (Danks 11-7, 3.23)

[hi8is]

I hate losing - let's go for another 12 straight at home starting tomorrow. =)

 

And when Tehan comes back - I really hope Kotsay gets DFA - Viciedo needs to be on this team so long as he continues to spank the ball.

[fathom]

Can't link it right now, but KW had some absolutely glowing reviews about Viciedo in Phil Rogers' article on chicagosports.com

[iamshack]

Can't link it right now, but KW had some absolutely glowing reviews about Viciedo in Phil Rogers' article on chicagosports.com

Basically, we need to pray that Kenny can convince Ozzie to keep Viciedo instead of another player...

[chw42]

It sickens me that I can't get excited. Soon as Teahen comes back it's a wrap for Dayan.

 

I was bored and decided to run our current lineup through a lineup optimizer. Using Dayan's current wOBA (.363), our lineup averages 4.87 runs per game.

 

I don't really think Dayan is going to hit that well all season, but I don't think it's unreasonable that he can at least have a .340 wOBA given his power.

 

By just replacing Viciedo with Kotsay, our runs per game goes down to 4.57 (which is incredibly close to our season average of 4.61 runs per game, you wonder how these things work so well sometimes). That's a .3 run difference. That .3 run difference over the next 59 games is a total of 18 runs.

 

Even if I put Dayan at a .340 wOBA and a .460 slugging, we would average 4.78 runs per game, that's a .21 difference, resulting in a difference of 12.4 runs.

 

To make this even more realistic, I decided to put in the projected stats by ZiPS for the rest of the season.

 

Fortunately, the expected regressions by Konerko and Rios get canceled out by better hitting from just about everyone except those two. With those projections, we're at 4.59 runs per game.

 

If I plug in Dayan's rough .340 wOBA and .460 SLG projections, we get 4.77 runs per game. The difference is slightly less this time, as expected. Still, that difference is 10.6 runs.

 

What about Mark Teahen? With him in there in place of Kotsay, we would get 4.7 runs per game. So this time, the difference is only 6.5 runs.

 

So Viciedo is a 10.6 run advantage (1.1 WAR) over Kotsay the rest of the way. Teahen is 6.5 runs (.7 WAR).

 

Having those two platoon might be the best idea of all.

 

And the best thing I took out of this is that the projection systems don't seem to think that we have overachieved thus far. In fact, we have underachieved. So maybe we're not looking at a disastrous rest of the way without that big bat.

Edited August 1, 2010 by chw42

[fathom]

Basically, we need to pray that Kenny can convince Ozzie to keep Viciedo instead of another player...

 

I don't know what else Viciedo needs to do in order to stay on this roster when Teahen comes back.

[iamshack]

I don't know what else Viciedo needs to do in order to stay on this roster when Teahen comes back.

Run faster and play better defense would be the only way...

[fathom]

Run faster and play better defense would be the only way...

 

He's not overly slow. Definitely faster than Kotsay is.

[chw42]

He's not overly slow. Definitely faster than Kotsay is.

 

Viciedo is surprisingly fast.

[Jordan4life_2007]

I was bored and decided to run our current lineup through a lineup optimizer. Using Dayan's current wOBA (.363), our lineup averages 4.87 runs per game.

 

I don't really think Dayan is going to hit that well all season, but I don't think it's unreasonable that he can at least have a .340 wOBA given his power.

 

By just replacing Viciedo with Kotsay, our runs per game goes down to 4.57 (which is incredibly close to our season average of 4.61 runs per game, you wonder how these things work so well sometimes). That's a .3 run difference. That .3 run difference over the next 59 games is a total of 18 runs.

 

Even if I put Dayan at a .340 wOBA and a .460 slugging, we would average 4.78 runs per game, that's a .21 difference, resulting in a difference of 12.4 runs.

 

To make this even more realistic, I decided to put in the projected stats by ZiPS for the rest of the season.

 

Fortunately, the expected regressions by Konerko and Rios get canceled out by better hitting from just about everyone except those two. With those projections, we're at 4.59 runs per game.

 

If I plug in Dayan's rough .340 wOBA and .460 SLG projections, we get 4.77 runs per game. The difference is slightly less this time, as expected. Still, that difference is 10.6 runs.

 

What about Mark Teahen? With him in there in place of Kotsay, we would get 4.7 runs per game. So this time, the difference is only 6.5 runs.

 

So Viciedo is a 10.6 run advantage (1.1 WAR) over Kotsay the rest of the way. Teahen is 6.5 runs (.7 WAR).

 

Having those two platoon might be the best idea of all.

 

And the best thing I took out of this is that the projection systems don't seem to think that we have overachieved thus far. In fact, we have underachieved. So maybe we're not looking at a disastrous rest of the way without that big bat.

 

Excellent breakdown.

[scenario]

Can't link it right now, but KW had some absolutely glowing reviews about Viciedo in Phil Rogers' article on chicagosports.com

 

Link

 

"I was not trading Gordon Beckham,'' Williams said.

 

It's an even better sign that teams did not even ask about Viciedo, who the Sox project as a game-changing power hitter at either third base or (post-Konerko) first base. He's in the second year of a four-year, $10-million contract and is valued higher than it might have seemed heading into the weekend of the trade deadline.

 

"People know how we feel,'' Williams said, explaining why no teams asked for him. "He's 21 years old. A talent like that will be a major force in the league. I'd like you to find one or two (prospects) at his level who can do the things he can do, are as explosive. The ball comes off his bat. People understood we weren't going to (consider trading him)."

[Jordan4life_2007]

Link

 

"I was not trading Gordon Beckham,'' Williams said.

 

It's an even better sign that teams did not even ask about Viciedo, who the Sox project as a game-changing power hitter at either third base or (post-Konerko) first base. He's in the second year of a four-year, $10-million contract and is valued higher than it might have seemed heading into the weekend of the trade deadline.

 

"People know how we feel,'' Williams said, explaining why no teams asked for him. "He's 21 years old. A talent like that will be a major force in the league. I'd like you to find one or two (prospects) at his level who can do the things he can do, are as explosive. The ball comes off his bat. People understood we weren't going to (consider trading him)."

 

I'll definitely give KW credit here. Takes a special player for Kenny not to consider trading him.

[iamshack]

He's not overly slow. Definitely faster than Kotsay is.

I'm just telling you what the Ozzeroo thinks...

[greg775]

It sickens me that I can't get excited. Soon as Teahen comes back it's a wrap for Dayan.

 

Why can't the Sox send Lillibridge down? It's not like the guy is needed to be a defensive replacement. I don't see why the Sox just don't send him down.

Seriously, why do we need him on the roster if you are deciding between he and Viciedo?

[Jordan4life_2007]

Why can't the Sox send Lillibridge down? It's not like the guy is needed to be a defensive replacement. I don't see why the Sox just don't send him down.

Seriously, why do we need him on the roster if you are deciding between he and Viciedo?

 

Don't look at me. Ask your boy.

[greg775]

Is it only Ozzie's call?

If so that is kind of dumb. I love Oz but he is not the commissioner of baseball. He's our manager. Does KW and even baseball fan/owner Jerry have any say in this??

It's pretty apparent to me there is possible use for Viciedo; despite Lillibridge's nice at bats, he's not needed upon Teahen's return.

Too bad the beat writers didn't ask KW today about whether Viciedo will stick with the team the rest of the year. Maybe it's assumed he will?

Edited August 1, 2010 by greg775

[Jordan4life_2007]

Is it only Ozzie's call?

If so that is kind of dumb. I love Oz but he is not the commissioner of baseball. He's our manager. Does KW and even baseball fan/owner Jerry have any say in this??

It's pretty apparent to me there is possible use for Viciedo; despite Lillibridge's nice at bats, he's not needed upon Teahen's return.

Too bad the beat writers didn't ask KW today about whether Viciedo will stick with the team the rest of the year. Maybe it's assumed he will?

 

Ozzie has just as much, if not more, influence over the roster than KW. JR is not even relevant here.

[scenario]

FWIW, Teahen went 3 for 4 tonight, had 2 RBIs, and scored the winning run for Charlotte in the bottom of the 9th.

[greg775]

Ozzie has just as much, if not more, influence over the roster than KW. JR is not even relevant here.

 

So are you telling me you predict Lillibridge will be on the roster soon over Viciedo?

That means our organization has rocks for brains.

 

And if I was JR I'd be relevant here. He's the owner and anybody with a brain can see Viciedo is contributing and has the ability to contribute big time where as Lillibridge has no role except pinch hit/pinch run. If ever an owner had a right to give input or at least sit in on the meeting between the clashing Oz/KW duo, it is Reinsdorf. If he stays completely out of all baseball decisions, that's pretty dumb IMO especially with GM/manager who don't get along.

Edited August 1, 2010 by greg775

[Jordan4life_2007]

So are you telling me you predict Lillibridge will be on the roster soon over Viciedo?

That means our organization has rocks for brains.

 

I can't say for certain. But Vicedo can be on the roster. That's not the issue. Will he be used? They didn't sign Teahen to a ridiculous extension not to have him be the primary 3B (then you've got Omar who obviously warrants playing time). And you know Kotsay is going to get his ABs no matter what. So there won't be much run for Dayan regardless.

[Balta1701]

I can't say for certain. But Vicedo can be on the roster. That's not the issue. Will he be used? They didn't sign Teahen to a ridiculous extension not to have him be the primary 3B (then you've got Omar who obviously warrants playing time). And you know Kotsay is going to get his ABs no matter what. So there won't be much run for Dayan regardless.

The sad thing is, you've noted 1 guy who hasn't earned at bats through performance.

[greg775]

That's not the issue. Will he be used? They didn't sign Teahen to a ridiculous extension not to have him be the primary 3B (then you've got Omar who obviously warrants playing time). And you know Kotsay is going to get his ABs no matter what. So there won't be much run for Dayan regardless.

 

If we make Teahen the primary third baseman, I firmly believe this team will lose all mojo it had and will finish six to eight games behind the Twinks who are going to be very very difficult to beat no matter what. It's not like this guy is a good enough player to just have the Sox say, "Welcome back to third base. It's yours. We realize Omar was a vacuum there, but we want to put you and your hole-infested glove and mediocre to slightly above average bat in the lineup on a daily basis."

 

[Jordan4life_2007]

If we make Teahen the primary third baseman, I firmly believe this team will lose all mojo it had and will finish six to eight games behind the Twinks who are going to be very very difficult to beat no matter what. It's not like this guy is a good enough player to just have the Sox say, "Welcome back to third base. It's yours. We realize Omar was a vacuum there, but we want to put you and your hole-infested glove and mediocre to slightly above average bat in the lineup on a daily basis."

 

I think you've had Bobby on the brain too much. Are you really surprised by this? If you think Dayan is going to get regular playing time you're going to be really disappointed.

[pktmotion]

Just came back from the game. Tough loss, but our offense was either having bad luck or Braden was that dominant. Maybe a bit of both. Fireworks @ the end of the game were something special.

 

 

I do want to say, when did half of our fan base become like Cubs fans?; half the people at the game today weren't even paying attention to the game, crowding the concourse drinking and talking, or on their phones f**king tweeting or whatever. This was before Danks gave up 4 in the 2nd. It seemed like me and my girlfriend had to get up to let someone through every 2 minutes. I really hate to gripe about this on a fan site, because I trust no one here is like that. But goddamn has anyone else experienced this? Maybe its ok since they're money is green too, but it felt like a huge beer garden. It felt like Wrigley. I propose a section devoted to the A.D.D, faux-hawk sportin', Nick Swisher jersey wearin', PBR swillin', constantly on their IPhones; so as to not disturb the people who are trying to watch a ball game.

Edited August 1, 2010 by pktmotion