Greg Hibbard Posted August 2, 2010 Share Posted August 2, 2010 Does anyone have an idea as to what a likely salary will end up being? I have no idea how to even gauge this. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
justBLAZE Posted August 2, 2010 Share Posted August 2, 2010 http://baseball.suite101.com/article.cfm/h...bitration_works Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Balta1701 Posted August 2, 2010 Share Posted August 2, 2010 The highest amount ever for a first year arbitration player was $10 million for Ryan Howard. Unless D1 finishes the season by breaking Herschiser's scoreless innings record, he's not likely to beat that. The Sox are very likely to sign a contract of some sort with D1 before the actual arbitration hearing, because that's how they always do it, and there were only 3 arbitration hearings in all of MLB last year. Here's a list of last year's Arbitration numbers, what each side submitted, and the final signed contract. For a first year guy, I think a plausible comparison might be Papelbon, who got upwards of $6 million in his first arbitration year. Joe Saunders was a first year arbitration starting LHP last year, and he wound up at $3.7 million, and he's no where near D1's caliber right now. I could see anywhere in the range from $5-$8 million being plausible and I think they'll wind up somewhere around $7. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Greg Hibbard Posted August 2, 2010 Author Share Posted August 2, 2010 QUOTE (justBLAZE @ Aug 2, 2010 -> 10:33 AM) http://baseball.suite101.com/article.cfm/h...bitration_works Am I missing something? I'm seeing that the club may not offer less than 80%/70% but I can't figure out if there's a benchmark for what the player asks for. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Greg Hibbard Posted August 2, 2010 Author Share Posted August 2, 2010 QUOTE (Balta1701 @ Aug 2, 2010 -> 10:35 AM) The highest amount ever for a first year arbitration player was $10 million for Ryan Howard. Unless D1 finishes the season by breaking Herschiser's scoreless innings record, he's not likely to beat that. The Sox are very likely to sign a contract of some sort with D1 before the actual arbitration hearing, because that's how they always do it, and there were only 3 arbitration hearings in all of MLB last year. Here's a list of last year's Arbitration numbers, what each side submitted, and the final signed contract. For a first year guy, I think a plausible comparison might be Papelbon, who got upwards of $6 million in his first arbitration year. Joe Saunders was a first year arbitration starting LHP last year, and he wound up at $3.7 million, and he's no where near D1's caliber right now. I could see anywhere in the range from $5-$8 million being plausible and I think they'll wind up somewhere around $7. Thanks. That makes sense. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WCSox Posted August 2, 2010 Share Posted August 2, 2010 The Sox go out of their way to avoid going through the arbitration process these days. I imagine that they'll agree to a one-year deal in the $7-8M range this winter. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
southsider2k5 Posted August 2, 2010 Share Posted August 2, 2010 QUOTE (Greg Hibbard @ Aug 2, 2010 -> 10:36 AM) Am I missing something? I'm seeing that the club may not offer less than 80%/70% but I can't figure out if there's a benchmark for what the player asks for. There isn't. They could ask for a gazillion dollars if they wanted to. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
caulfield12 Posted August 2, 2010 Share Posted August 2, 2010 What are Jon Lester's contract numbers again? I think that's probably the closest to an accurate comparison...although the very SLIGHT edge probably goes to Lester, but not by much. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ILMOU Posted August 2, 2010 Share Posted August 2, 2010 QUOTE (caulfield12 @ Aug 2, 2010 -> 09:55 AM) What are Jon Lester's contract numbers again? I think that's probably the closest to an accurate comparison...although the very SLIGHT edge probably goes to Lester, but not by much. Anyone else notice how BIG Lester has become this season? I mean, guys fill out in their 20's, and maybe the cancer kept him thinner than he would've been, but he looks quite "different" from before. Maybe the "PEDs in the water cooler" theory that I hold regarding the BoSox has some legs after all... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Pumpkin Escobar Posted August 2, 2010 Share Posted August 2, 2010 My buddy and I talk about this often. We need to pay the kid. Lock him up. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
caulfield12 Posted August 2, 2010 Share Posted August 2, 2010 11:$5.75M, 12:$7.625M, 13:$11.625M, 14:$13M club option ($0.25M buyout) LESTER's deal I wouldn't be surprised at all if the White Sox offered him something similar to get to year 7 and 8. Although I think they're going to have to pay him $7.5 million next year, $11.5 million in 2012 and then the $13 million club option to buy out one year of free agency. Will he go for it, is the question? And if he turns down this offer (as he did before, the one Gavin Floyd accepted)...how long would KW wait to deal him? Probably this offseason or in July 2011. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Pumpkin Escobar Posted August 2, 2010 Share Posted August 2, 2010 QUOTE (caulfield12 @ Aug 2, 2010 -> 11:26 AM) 11:$5.75M, 12:$7.625M, 13:$11.625M, 14:$13M club option ($0.25M buyout) LESTER's deal I wouldn't be surprised at all if the White Sox offered him something similar to get to year 7 and 8. Although I think they're going to have to pay him $7.5 million next year, $11.5 million in 2012 and then the $13 million club option to buy out one year of free agency. Will he go for it, is the question? And if he turns down this offer (as he did before, the one Gavin Floyd accepted)...how long would KW wait to deal him? Probably this offseason or in July 2011. How much do you think the Marlins regret not dealing Miggy for Danks? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
elrockinMT Posted August 2, 2010 Share Posted August 2, 2010 Hope they sign him to along term deal. Pitching is the name of the game and we have traded away most of our pitching prispects so hopefully we keep those we have on the roster and keep our staff intact Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Frankensteiner Posted August 2, 2010 Share Posted August 2, 2010 QUOTE (caulfield12 @ Aug 2, 2010 -> 11:26 AM) Will he go for it, is the question? And if he turns down this offer (as he did before, the one Gavin Floyd accepted)...how long would KW wait to deal him? Probably this offseason or in July 2011. Huh? We're going to deal him despite controlling him for 3 more years? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Balta1701 Posted August 2, 2010 Share Posted August 2, 2010 QUOTE (Frankensteiner @ Aug 2, 2010 -> 01:13 PM) Huh? We're going to deal him despite controlling him for 3 more years? We only control him through the end of the 2012 season. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
elrockinMT Posted August 2, 2010 Share Posted August 2, 2010 QUOTE (Balta1701 @ Aug 2, 2010 -> 06:59 PM) We only control him through the end of the 2012 season. They need to be working on that there deal then right there and right now Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Balta1701 Posted August 2, 2010 Share Posted August 2, 2010 QUOTE (elrockinMT @ Aug 2, 2010 -> 02:01 PM) They need to be working on that there deal then right there and right now If D1 was interested in a long-term deal at a reasonable value for the team, I have a ton of confidence that it'd be done already. I think he's pitching his arbitration years and wants to hit FA. If nothing goes wrong with his arm, he could easily be looking at a deal well over $100 million. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
southsider2k5 Posted August 2, 2010 Share Posted August 2, 2010 QUOTE (Balta1701 @ Aug 2, 2010 -> 01:02 PM) If D1 was interested in a long-term deal at a reasonable value for the team, I have a ton of confidence that it'd be done already. I think he's pitching his arbitration years and wants to hit FA. If nothing goes wrong with his arm, he could easily be looking at a deal well over $100 million. As healthy as he has been, and the numbers he has put up as a lefty, that would be the starting point for a deal. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Balta1701 Posted August 2, 2010 Share Posted August 2, 2010 QUOTE (southsider2k5 @ Aug 2, 2010 -> 02:16 PM) As healthy as he has been, and the numbers he has put up as a lefty, that would be the starting point for a deal. As I said, "Well over". I don't think he'll touch Captain Cheeseburger dollars...but he could always snap a sub-3 ERA season out in the next 2 years and put himself at that level. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Greg Hibbard Posted August 2, 2010 Author Share Posted August 2, 2010 Is he really in that elite category? with a 1.29 career WHIP? I love me some Danks, but I don't think he's quite top-tier yet... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
southsider2k5 Posted August 2, 2010 Share Posted August 2, 2010 QUOTE (Balta1701 @ Aug 2, 2010 -> 01:20 PM) As I said, "Well over". I don't think he'll touch Captain Cheeseburger dollars...but he could always snap a sub-3 ERA season out in the next 2 years and put himself at that level. He is looking at a seven or eight year deal if he hits the open market. The guy doesn't miss starts and is left handed. In this day and age, that is worth about 10 million a season all by itself. Throw in the sub 4 eras, the way less than a hit per inning, and not many walks either, and you are in the 17/18 million a year range. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Balta1701 Posted August 2, 2010 Share Posted August 2, 2010 QUOTE (Greg Hibbard @ Aug 2, 2010 -> 02:26 PM) Is he really in that elite category? with a 1.29 career WHIP? I love me some Danks, but I don't think he's quite top-tier yet... Captain Cheeseburger's career ERA+ when the Yankees signed him at age 27 was 120, his career WHIP was 1.24. D1: the Pitching Danks's career ERA+ is 117. His Career WHIP is 1.29. And most importantly...his best years should still be ahead of him. His WHIP this season, for example, is 1.14. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Socal Cid Posted August 2, 2010 Share Posted August 2, 2010 QUOTE (Balta1701 @ Aug 2, 2010 -> 01:34 PM) Captain Cheeseburger's career ERA+ when the Yankees signed him at age 27 was 120, his career WHIP was 1.24. D1: the Pitching Danks's career ERA+ is 117. His Career WHIP is 1.29. And most importantly...his best years should still be ahead of him. His WHIP this season, for example, is 1.14. He would still do well to be awarded 7 million this year in arbitration and 11 million next year from the Sox...so let's just concentrate on 2 years at $18M. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Frankensteiner Posted August 2, 2010 Share Posted August 2, 2010 Pitching numbers are improved across the board for the entire league. So although his numbers this year are his best yet, you have to look at in the context of pitching in 2010. I don't think he quite qualifies as an #1/ace but he's pretty close. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WCSox Posted August 2, 2010 Share Posted August 2, 2010 Something tells me that D1 gets moved before he hits FA. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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