Danks and Arbitration

[Balta1701]

Something tells me that D1 gets moved before he hits FA.

I'm trying to think about what Kenny's M.O. is in this, but I feel like he's done basically all options. Garland and Garcia got moved before they could reach F.A. Buehrle and Vazquez were resigned. I can't think of a starting pitcher he's allowed to leave as an FA and offered arb, but he hasn't had a long list (contreras).

 

Altogether, yeah, it seems like he tends to not let guys walk as FA for draft picks.

[iamshack]

He is looking at a seven or eight year deal if he hits the open market. The guy doesn't miss starts and is left handed. In this day and age, that is worth about 10 million a season all by itself. Throw in the sub 4 eras, the way less than a hit per inning, and not many walks either, and you are in the 17/18 million a year range.

If that is what his camp truly expects, then he must be dealt this offseason. There is simply no way we can afford, nor should we pay any SP that kind of money.

 

My limit on contracts for pitchers would be the one Lackey got this past offseason. I would offer Danks $5/80 million, and if he's not cool with that, than sayonara.

 

These long-term deals for SPs never seem to work out for the club....do you ever hear about the club wishing there were more years on these contracts? Like, "darn, if we had only locked up so and so for that 8th year..." Never...

 

Take a look at Johan Santana's contract, which was just signed 2 years ago, and it already looks absolutely horrible for the Mets...

[southsider2k5]

Something tells me that D1 gets moved before he hits FA.

 

That is my guess. Hopefully I am wrong.

[Balta1701]

My limit on contracts for pitchers would be the one Lackey got this past offseason. I would offer Danks $5/80 million, and if he's not cool with that, than sayonara.

John Lackey was 31 when he signed that deal. D1 will be 27 when he hits FA. That should tell you all you need to know about contract lengths.

[Frankensteiner]

Why wouldn't they just re-sign him, especially with Peavy and Buehrle no longer under contract after 2012? They're going to have to pay someone.

[Balta1701]

Why wouldn't they just re-sign him, especially with Peavy and Buehrle no longer under contract after 2012? They're going to have to pay someone.

Are you prepared to go to 8/$180 million on him?

[iamshack]

John Lackey was 31 when he signed that deal. D1 will be 27 when he hits FA. That should tell you all you need to know about contract lengths.

Well unless you pay Danksy $20 million a year for 8 years or something, he's not going to want too long a deal either. He's going to want another shot at signing a long-term contract once he hits 32 I would think.

 

I think you either sign him to an extension this offseason...something that pays him above what he would get in arb, and slightly less than you project in his first 2 FA years, throw an option on there for a 5th, and call it a day. If he refuses to work with you on that, you deal him.

 

4/$48 extension with a club option of $18 million for 2015.

[Frankensteiner]

Are you prepared to go to 8/$180 million on him?

 

No way on earth is he going to get that much money.

[chw42]

Danks is a 4.5-5 WAR pitcher. So on the open market, he's well worth $18-$20 million.

 

He won't have the reputation or the wins to back that money up, but his true worth is definitely around there.

Edited August 2, 2010 by chw42

[Frankensteiner]

So he's going to get more money than Sabathia and Santana even though those guys were the best pitchers in baseball when they signed their contracts while Danks isn't even in their league? You guys need to slow down.

[Balta1701]

So he's going to get more money than Sabathia and Santana even though those guys were the best pitchers in baseball when they signed their contracts while Danks isn't even in their league? You guys need to slow down.

It'll be 4 years after Sabathia's deal.

[iamshack]

So he's going to get more money than Sabathia and Santana even though those guys were the best pitchers in baseball when they signed their contracts while Danks isn't even in their league? You guys need to slow down.

Santana signed a 6/$137.5 before the 2008 season, and CC signed a 7/$161 before the 2009 season.

 

 

[Frankensteiner]

CCs and Santana's WAR was in the 7s leading up to their FA. Danks is 3.6 now, 2.9 last year, and 5.2 two years ago. I will say there is no way on earth he gets the ridiculous contract numbers thrown around here.

 

Beckett money (4/68) is more realistic and even then I think Beckett is pretty much a better pitcher. So was Lackey.

[southsider2k5]

Well unless you pay Danksy $20 million a year for 8 years or something, he's not going to want too long a deal either. He's going to want another shot at signing a long-term contract once he hits 32 I would think.

 

I think you either sign him to an extension this offseason...something that pays him above what he would get in arb, and slightly less than you project in his first 2 FA years, throw an option on there for a 5th, and call it a day. If he refuses to work with you on that, you deal him.

 

4/$48 extension with a club option of $18 million for 2015.

 

If someone is willing to offer that security up front with that sort of huge money, he is signing it.

[southsider2k5]

CCs and Santana's WAR was in the 7s leading up to their FA. Danks is 3.6 now, 2.9 last year, and 5.2 two years ago. I will say there is no way on earth he gets the ridiculous contract numbers thrown around here.

 

Beckett money (4/68) is more realistic and even then I think Beckett is pretty much a better pitcher. So was Lackey.

 

All of them were much older than Danks when they hit the open market. As was said earlier, Danks will be 27.

[Balta1701]

CCs and Santana's WAR was in the 7s leading up to their FA. Danks is 3.6 now, 2.9 last year, and 5.2 two years ago. I will say there is no way on earth he gets the ridiculous contract numbers thrown around here.

 

Beckett money (4/68) is more realistic and even then I think Beckett is pretty much a better pitcher. So was Lackey.

CC's first time with a WAR over 5 was when he put up a 5.5 in 2006 at age 25. D1 is well on his way to his 2nd season with a WAR of 5 by the time he's 25.

[iamshack]

If someone is willing to offer that security up front with that sort of huge money, he is signing it.

What, the 4/48 or the 8/160?

[Greg Hibbard]

Contracts also seemed to peak around the time Santana signed his deal. Doesn't anyone else believe that contract values will actually slightly (not much, but slightly) regress?

[Balta1701]

Contracts also seemed to peak around the time Santana signed his deal. Doesn't anyone else believe that contract values will actually slightly (not much, but slightly) regress?

The average player salary has not declined year over year since 2004. The rate of increase slowed this year, probably recession related.

 

The only thing that is going to cut the amount spent on contracts is the Yankees deciding to pull back...but...the luxury tax level goes up every seaosn, so the Yankees are penalized less every year.

[iamshack]

CC's first time with a WAR over 5 was when he put up a 5.5 in 2006 at age 25. D1 is well on his way to his 2nd season with a WAR of 5 by the time he's 25.

Danks does not have the accomplishments that either CC or Johan had. He has been very good in 2008 and again this year, but he is not the kind of dominant pitcher that those two have been.

 

What he does have, is youth.

 

But keep this in mind...they mentioned it last night on Sunday Night Baseball, and I don't know if a more accurate and concise way of putting it exists....in baseball, you pay for past performance. And Danksy will get paid on his past performance moreso than his projected performance, and that simply does not match up to CC or Johan.

[Greg Hibbard]

The average player salary has not declined year over year since 2004. The rate of increase slowed this year, probably recession related.

 

The only thing that is going to cut the amount spent on contracts is the Yankees deciding to pull back...but...the luxury tax level goes up every seaosn, so the Yankees are penalized less every year.

 

I wonder about the variance/standard deviation, though? I would think that a few bad apples (huge contracts) would spoil the bunch, and teams like Yanks/Mets/Flubs/Sawks would be mostly to blame.

[iamshack]

The average player salary has not declined year over year since 2004. The rate of increase slowed this year, probably recession related.

 

The only thing that is going to cut the amount spent on contracts is the Yankees deciding to pull back...but...the luxury tax level goes up every seaosn, so the Yankees are penalized less every year.

The money has dried up for the veteran players...they are no longer getting the 4 and 5 year deals worth $35-50 million for guys like Mark DeRosa and the like. Now, they are lucky to get 2/$12 or 2/$14.

 

But the premier free agents are getting just as much or more as they always have. If Johnny hits the market, he will be a premier free agent.

Edited August 2, 2010 by iamshack

[Balta1701]

I wonder about the variance/standard deviation, though? I would think that a few bad apples (huge contracts) would spoil the bunch, and teams like Yanks/Mets/Flubs/Sawks would be mostly to blame.

Take a look at the actual numbers. There was a big boost in average salary (total salary paid out divided by number of players) going into 2008. The Yankees did their most recent Tex/Cheeseburger spending binge going into 2009, and there was a much smaller increase between 2008 and 2009.

 

It's possible we could see a decline this year...but I'm not sure it's likely. The Yankees aren't going to cut salary hugely (they have the captain to extend), the Twins are suddenly flush from a new packed ballpark, the Red Sox are out of luxury tax territory, the Dodgers have already cut back on salary, and teams like the Padres and Rangers are now discovering pennant race revenue streams. The Dodgers are probably the only team to make a decent cut this year since they have Manram's contract ending, but they have guys like Ethier and Kemp to pay.

[Balta1701]

But keep this in mind...they mentioned it last night on Sunday Night Baseball, and I don't know if a more accurate and concise way of putting it exists....in baseball, you pay for past performance. And Danksy will get paid on his past performance moreso than his projected performance, and that simply does not match up to CC or Johan.

So basically, you're saying that if D1 wants to get paid, he needs to kick some major arse in his 25-27 year old seasons, just like the other guys did.

 

You know, I could totally go for that.

 

One other note...CC probably added $25 million to his final contract with how he carried the Brewers to the playoffs in 2008. If he can get the team around him...there's nothing stopping D1 from ripping people apart down the stretch or in the playoffs.

 

I can think of one fairly entertaining game with playoff implications where he stepped up just a little bit.

[iamshack]

So basically, you're saying that if D1 wants to get paid, he needs to kick some major arse in his 25-27 year old seasons, just like the other guys did.

 

You know, I could totally go for that.

Well, he will get paid, because he is young, durable, and has been a very good AL pitcher in a hitter's ballpark. That will probably get him in to $12-15 million range. But to get into the $15 million to $23 million range, you've got to be absolutely dominant for big chunks of time. Johan was famous for his second half dominance. CC put teams on his back at times, especially the Brewers in the second half of 08'.

 

In his three seasons leading up to FA, CC put up ERAs of 3.22, 3.21, and 2.70.

 

The other thing is, as much as we all want to laugh at the W and L statistic for pitchers, it does come into play in negotiations, whether we want to admit it or not. CC was 45 games over .500 when he hit FA. As of today, Danksy is 42-41.

 

So Danksy needs to do quite a bit if he wants to get into the $20 million territory. He also has to be willing to go to Boston, NY, the Cubs, or LA.