How can an actual MLB manager continue to justify playing time for Mar

[witesoxfan]

To the sabermetricians ... how many games will Kotsay cost us the rest of the year by playing in 80 percent of the games.

Flat out, how many losses pinned on him?

 

His WAR is -1 right now, which suggests that, with a replacement level bat at DH instead of Kotsay (say, a .725 OPS, or something along those lines), the White Sox would have won 1 more game. So, just isolating for Kotsay, if he were to maintain this level of putrid play, he might cost the Sox another game, but that's probably stretching it, and he literally will not add or subtract any wins from the team.

 

If you are to assume that he was replaced at this point or at some point last week by Adam LaRoche, the difference is probably two games between LaRoche and Kotsay from that point to the end of the season. With Dunn, it's probably a difference of three games in the same time frame.

 

Had the White Sox added Jim Thome in January and DFA'ed Kotsay, and everything else had remained constant, the Sox would have 2-3 more wins right now than they did with Kotsay. To add on to that, the Twins would probably be looking at being 1 game worse, because they probably would have found an adequate DH but not one who could be worth 1.5 WAR in 225 plate appearances, but probably one who would have been worth 0.5-1 WAR in the same time frame. Thus, in this scenario, the Sox are still in first place - as they are now - but instead of being 60-46 and 1.5 games up on Minnesota could instead be 63-43 and 5.5 games up on Minnesota with the Tigers 10 games back.

Edited August 4, 2010 by witesoxfan

[BigSqwert]

His WAR is -1 right now, which suggests that, with a replacement level bat at DH instead of Kotsay (say, a .725 OPS, or something along those lines), the White Sox would have won 1 more game. So, just isolating for Kotsay, if he were to maintain this level of putrid play, he might cost the Sox another game, but that's probably stretching it, and he literally will not add or subtract any wins from the team.

 

If you are to assume that he was replaced by even Adam LaRoche, the difference is probably two games between LaRoche and Kotsay. With Dunn, it's probably a difference of three to four games. Had the White Sox added Jim Thome in January and DFA'ed Kotsay, and everything else had remained constant, the Sox would have 2-3 more wins right now than they did with Kotsay. To add on to that, the Twins would probably be looking at being 1 game worse, because they probably would have found an adequate DH but not one who could be worth 1.5 WAR in 225 plate appearances, but probably one who would have been worth 0.5-1 WAR in the same time frame. Thus, in this scenario, the Sox are still in first place - as they are now - but instead of being 60-46 and 1.5 games up on Minnesota could instead be 63-43 and 5.5 games up on Minnesota with the Tigers 10 games back.

Shoot that over to the Ranger.

[DukeNukeEm]

Kotsay is 0-20 against LHP and down to .214 overall, with Andruw Jones down to .201. Looks like the experiment, while the White Sox are in first place, has been a failure. Either put Viciedo in there to DH or get a legit hitter. I don't mind Jones and Kotsay on the bench. Jones can still play a little defense and could hit a homer from time to time, but Kotsay is Darin Erstad revisited. Hopefully when they decide Teahen must come back, the make the correct decision and give Kotsay a little more time with his wife.

 

Difference is Jones has some decent power and a pretty good glove in the OF. I really dont mind him on this team, especially his current role.

[Balta1701]

Difference is Jones has some decent power and a pretty good glove in the OF. I really dont mind him on this team, especially his current role.

Jones has been everything you could ask him to be. Average overall with the bat, above average against LHP, and solid defensively at multiple OF positions. He's actually been basically a perfect guy to fit into a rotating DH position scheme.

[BigSqwert]

Difference is Jones has some decent power and a pretty good glove in the OF. I really dont mind him on this team, especially his current role.

Although he should NEVER face a RHP the rest of the way.

[chw42]

Shoot that over to the Ranger.

 

He doesn't care for things like WAR, UZR, etc.

 

He'll just tell you about how "subjective" UZR is while telling you of his opinions.

[witesoxfan]

Shoot that over to the Ranger.

 

It's hard to figure out exactly, because adding Thome means the Sox would have had to have found room for him on the roster. The obvious answer would have been to trade or release Kotsay before the season (and I believe I even suggested doing so), but the Sox obviously saw some sort of value in Kotsay, and for a reason - because Kotsay, similarly to DeWayne Wise, Darin Erstad, and Rob Mackowiak, has value if he is used properly. And, as was the case with the 3 players before him, the Sox completely misused him and it has predictably resulted in failure.

 

So, considering the Sox were going to keep Kotsay, and already traded for Teahen, and needed 2 backup infielders, 2 backup outfielders (one of whom was Kotsay) and Ozzie's innate desire to carry 12 pitchers at all times (even though Randy Williams never deserved to be in Chicago), there was "no room" for Thome on the roster. As such, it's impossible to predict exactly how Thome would have affected the White Sox season because it's hard to know how the roster would have shaken out had the Sox done so.

[Balta1701]

because Kotsay, similarly to DeWayne Wise, Darin Erstad, and Rob Mackowiak, has value if he is used properly. And, as was the case with the 3 players before him, the Sox completely misused him and it has predictably resulted in failure.

Really, I think I disagree with this. Mack had value as a corner OF or middle infield backup, I can grant you that.

 

I'm not sure how exactly Kotsay has value. Kotsay has exactly 1 role on this team since we don't use him in the OF, and that's as a backup 1b. He hasn't performed with the bat well enough to justify putting him at DH, and he's clearly unable to play the OF since we refuse to play him there and put Q at DH.

 

On top of that, Mark Kotsay has been worse than your average backup 1b would be. Ross Gload signed with the Phils for the same amount this year that Kotsay is getting and has put up an OPS 170 points higher. Mark Teahen might have done an adequate job there, etc.

 

The sole thing he's capable of doing is being Konerko's backup, but even when he plays, we don't put Konerko at DH that often, and he's not very good with the glove when we do put him in there.

[DBAHO]

Kotsay was actually quite decent in May and barely passable in June.

 

April and July however, ugh. And he doesn't have 1 hit against LHP all season long (albeit in 20 AB's).

[Kalapse]

http://bbref.com/pi/shareit/qWvkE

[BigSqwert]

http://bbref.com/pi/shareit/qWvkE

Hey at least he's no George Bell!

[Balta1701]

Hey at least he's no George Bell!

I seriously never remembered him being that bad. Blasted memory.

[Jordan4life_2007]

http://bbref.com/pi/shareit/qWvkE

 

lmao@this. This is awesome. I am now convinced Kalapse is a robot.

[chw42]

With my newly programmed xBABIP calculator, I found out that Mark Kotsay's expected batting average on balls in play is .266.

 

His current batting average on balls in play is .217. That's a nice difference of 49 points.

 

Kotsay has hit 217 balls in play that have not been home runs. So he has 44 hits that are not home runs based on his current BABIP.

 

If we take the .266 figure up to those 217 balls in play, he would have 58 hits + 6 home runs, or 64 hits.

 

64 divided by his 234 at bats is a .274 batting average. His new OBP would be .356. Looking at how Kotsay gets his hits, we can derive a possible slugging percentage. 66% of Kotsay's hits are singles. 22% are doubles. 12% are home runs. So if we take that up to the new figure of 64 hits, we would have 42 singles, 14 doubles, 8 home runs. This results in a SLG of .436. That results in an OPS of .792. This would be a wOBA of .346 and would be 2.86 runs above replacement. Take that factor to his WAR and he would worth +0.2 wins instead of the -1 win figure.

 

I know, I know, this is all quite shocking, but keep in mind Kotsay is not your average Major League Baseball player, so the he may not be hitting line drives all that hard or fly balls all that far.

 

He has been unlucky, but he should not be perceived as a valuable player. Even if this was a perfect world, Mark Kotsay would be a replacement level DH.

Edited August 4, 2010 by chw42

[Jordan4life_2007]

He doesn't care for things like WAR, UZR, etc.

 

He'll just tell you about how "subjective" UZR is while telling you of his opinions.

 

When in doubt, "Ozzie has forgotten more about baseball than we could ever hope to know." Or "This won't make or break the season."

 

/ranger

[BigSqwert]

I seriously never remembered him being that bad. Blasted memory.

Didn't they eventually cut him that season? My memory is drawing a blank.

[witesoxfan]

Didn't they eventually cut him that season? My memory is drawing a blank.

 

After the season, October 13th, 1993.

[chw42]

I almost regret posting what I just did about Kotsay's xBABIP and his new projected numbers.

 

You know somebody's just going to put that to use in a bad way...

[balfanman]

One minor point that may just be semantics, but Rongey, I believe said that Kotsay is a good "clubhouse" guy. That to me signifies that he is good at encouraging others and maybe giving advice to younger players, things of that sort. I don't know that Thome was like that. Jim was always considered a gentleman, and was well liked because he was such a nice guy. Jim might not of been the best "player coach" so to speak. For all we know Mark Kotsay could be sort of a jerk at times, but knows how to help others. Again, could just be a matter of semantics and I personally have never met either of them, it's a "maybe that's why".

[Balta1701]

One minor point that may just be semantics, but Rongey, I believe said that Kotsay is a good "clubhouse" guy. That to me signifies that he is good at encouraging others and maybe giving advice to younger players, things of that sort. I don't know that Thome was like that. Jim was always considered a gentleman, and was well liked because he was such a nice guy. Jim might not of been the best "player coach" so to speak. For all we know Mark Kotsay could be sort of a jerk at times, but knows how to help others. Again, could just be a matter of semantics and I personally have never met either of them, it's a "maybe that's why".

Then pay him to be a coach.

[fathom]

One minor point that may just be semantics, but Rongey, I believe said that Kotsay is a good "clubhouse" guy. That to me signifies that he is good at encouraging others and maybe giving advice to younger players, things of that sort. I don't know that Thome was like that. Jim was always considered a gentleman, and was well liked because he was such a nice guy. Jim might not of been the best "player coach" so to speak. For all we know Mark Kotsay could be sort of a jerk at times, but knows how to help others. Again, could just be a matter of semantics and I personally have never met either of them, it's a "maybe that's why".

 

I'm so sick of hearing these excuses about Sox players who are underachievers. No one is ever held resonsible for anything in this organization. Whe a hitter struggles, it's either mental issues or they're too valuable to get released.

[Lemon_44]

Then pay him to be a coach.

they're obviously not paying him to hit.

[balfanman]

Then pay him to be a coach.

 

I would totally agree with this Balta if this is the reason why, but I don't know. I'm just speculating, trying to figure out a reason for this insanity.

[Thad Bosley]

It doesn't seem like the media has taken Ozzie to task on his (over)use of Kotsay whatsoever. Why is that?

[greg775]

It doesn't seem like the media has taken Ozzie to task on his (over)use of Kotsay whatsoever. Why is that?

 

You read my mind. I was just thinking the same thing. I think it's basically the decline of newspapers. Because of budget cuts, nobody has a "controversial" columnist anymore, one who would just attack the situation and harp on it every single day. The TV guys don't have a forum, really, their sportscasts are too short. That would leave Stoney to tell the truth on it or Darrin Jackson and they can't do that for obvious reasons

Somebody should at least write a feature story on Kotsay, however, and get different takes on his suckiness. I dont read the papers online every day; has anybody written a Kotsay piece lately? Or one on what the Sox are going to do when Teahen comes back at least?

Unless this is just a soxtalk phenonemon, it would be worth the media discussing it.

Edited August 4, 2010 by greg775