Double Header Sweeps

[knightni]

expectationally,

 

50% of the time a split should occur

50% of the time a sweep should occur

 

it doesn't matter who is doing the sweeping - 26.2% of the time it is occuring. Seems like an anomaly.

 

It can be argued that the anomaly is explained by the decisions regarding the second event being influenced by the outcome of the first event.

True, but you're not factoring in that technically the odds are 25% sweep/50% split per team.

 

Not both together.

 

 

 

 

[iamshack]

No, they aren't canceled. They are just duplicated. The other result would be Tigers winning game 1 and Sox winning game 2.

 

But both results are a same result, a split by two teams.

No they aren't.

 

These are your possible results:

 

1) Sox win game 1, Sox lose game 2

2) Sox lose game 1, Sox win game 2

3) Sox win game 1, Sox win game 2

4) Sox lose game 1, Sox lose game 2

 

For the purposes of this argument, result 1 and 2 are equal. They result in a split.

 

For purposes of this argument, result 3 and 4 are equal. They result in a sweep.

 

For purposes of this argument, it does not matter which team wins or loses, only whether a split or a sweep occurs. Of the possible outcomes, all things being equal, a split will occur 2 of 4 times. A sweep will occur 2 of 4 times.

Edited August 4, 2010 by iamshack

[knightni]

Tigers sweep

Tigers win game 1, lose game two

Tigers lose game 1, win game two

 

 

Sox sweep

Sox win game 1, lose game two

Sox win game 2, lose game one

 

That's three different outcomes per team, two being a split (interchangeable).

 

 

 

[iamshack]

Tigers sweep (1)

Tigers win game 1, lose game two (3)

Tigers lose game 1, win game two (4)

 

 

Sox sweep (2)

Sox win game 1, lose game two (4)

Sox win game 2, lose game one (3)

 

That's three different outcomes per team, two being a split (interchangeable).

But the Tigers losing game 1, and the Sox winning game 1 are the same things. Just as the Tigers winning game 1 and the Sox losing game 1 are the same things.

Edited August 4, 2010 by iamshack

[knightni]

But the Tigers losing game 1, and the Sox winning game 1 are the same things. Just as the Tigers winning game 1 and the Sox losing game 1 are the same things.

Yes they are.

 

As are Sox losing game 2 and Tigers winning game 2, Sox win 2, Det lose 2.

 

Both #3 and #4 happening equal a split series between the same two teams. Two different types of splits remain a split, nonetheless. So, only one result - a split - can occur, no matter who wins what game.

 

Whereas, #1 or #2 happening, while both being sweeps, they produce separate results. Tigers win 2, White Sox win 2.

 

Of course, their balance is Sox lose 2, Det lose 2, however we are discussing odds, not math principles.

[Greg Hibbard]

I'm beginning to think this may be similar to the Birthday paradox.

[iamshack]

Yes they are.

 

As are Sox losing game 2 and Tigers winning game 2, Sox win 2, Det lose 2.

 

Both #3 and #4 happening equal a split series between the same two teams. Two different types of splits remain a split, nonetheless. So, only one result - a split - can occur, no matter who wins what game.

 

Whereas, #1 or #2 happening, while both being sweeps, they produce separate results. Tigers win 2, White Sox win 2.

 

Of course, their balance is Sox lose 2, Det lose 2, however we are discussing odds, not math principles.

But for the purposes of the argument, it does not matter which team sweeps.

 

I agree with and understand what you're saying if you want to bet on a specific result here. I made the same initial mistake.

 

We are only concerned with splits or sweeps here though, irregardless of which teams do the sweeping. A Tigers sweep or a White Sox sweep is the same result!

Edited August 4, 2010 by iamshack

[greg775]

I'd like to see a list of the Sox's last 20 doubleheaders.

As a fan it seems to me we haven't swept many; we have been swept in many and split several as well.

My guess would be swept at least 10 times; 2 sweeps and 8 splits is my guess.

[knightni]

But for the purposes of the argument, it does not matter which team sweeps.

 

I agree with and understand what you're saying if you want to bet on a specific result here. I made the same initial mistake.

 

We are only concerned with splits or sweeps here though, irregardless of which teams do the sweeping. A Tigers sweep or a White Sox sweep is the same result!

 

Math-wise I agree, sports betting/odds/percentages, I do not.

 

Teams only sweep 25% of the time, because a split is easier to get. The starting pitchers are a larger contributing factor than an equation.

[Milkman delivers]

Tigers sweep

Tigers win game 1, lose game two

Tigers lose game 1, win game two

 

 

Sox sweep

Sox win game 1, lose game two

Sox win game 2, lose game one

 

That's three different outcomes per team, two being a split (interchangeable).

 

I don't know what is so hard to understand. It's sort of bothering me that you don't see it, ha.

[iamshack]

Math-wise I agree, sports betting/odds/percentages, I do not.

 

Teams only sweep 25% of the time, because a split is easier to get. The starting pitchers are a larger contributing factor than an equation.

We're not talking about betting.

 

We're talking about a sweep, or a split. No other outcomes.

 

And if two teams play two games, there are only 4 different possible outcomes. And for our purposes, two of those outcomes equal the same thing, and two of them equal the other thing.

 

2/4 =1/2=50%

 

Edit: I think where we are not seeing eye to eye is that you are considering the two splits to be the same outcome, but not the two sweeps to be the same outcome. Why do you not consider the two sweeps to be the same, when we are simply looking at a percentage of doubleheaders that are split versus swept?

Edited August 4, 2010 by iamshack

[Greg Hibbard]

If either team wins game 1,

 

there is a 50% chance the same team wins game 2

there is a 50% chance the other team wins game 2

 

therefore, after game 1 is concluded, there should be close to a 50/50 chance either team wins game 2, if their skill level is relatively similar.

 

 

 

[qwerty]

This is far too simple of a concept for it to be discussed for a page and a half.

[bighurt574]

If either team wins game 1,

 

there is a 50% chance the same team wins game 2

there is a 50% chance the other team wins game 2

 

therefore, after game 1 is concluded, there should be close to a 50/50 chance either team wins game 2, if their skill level is relatively similar.

 

That's exactly right. This isn't that complicated. Whichever team wins game 1, that team should have a 50% chance of winning game 2, assuming the teams are roughly equal (it's just like flipping a coin, you flip one time, it's 50/50 heads or tails, if you flip a second time, it's 50/50 heads or tails). Yet, that team only wins game 2 26% of the time, about half as often as you'd expect. There's clearly some external factor(s) at work skewing the odds.

Edited August 4, 2010 by bighurt574

[SoxAce]

This is far too simple of a concept for it to be discussed for a page and a half.

 

Hey... it wouldn't be soxtalk if it wasn't broken down to the last 0.000001 number.

[ScottyDo]

Hahah sorry everybody.

 

My point was not to get into a stats debate, my point was to indicate that we our non-sweep of the double-header wasn't all that unusual, no matter HOW much better we are than the Tigers. No reason to doubt what we've got just because we fall in line with 75% of everybody ever.