Who's the odd man out of the rotation next year?

[Jerksticks]

Garcia has the worst stuff but can we take the gamble that Peavy is going to be healthy and ready? If he is we obviously have 6 quality starters who all deserve to be pitching. So do we sign Garcia to a 1 year again, as Peavy insurance? Or is Garcia going to get some multi-year offers?

 

If Peavy doesn't return I'll be mad if Garcia is also gone and Torres/Sale/Harrel are playing 2003 out there.

 

What do you do?

[WCSox]

Freddy won't be back next year. He's going to get a (well-deserved) handsome contract somewhere else.

[Jerksticks]

That makes sense. So we just roll the Dice on Peav. I guess with a front 4 of Jackson, Danks, Floyd, Buehrle, you can let Peavy work it out in the 5 spot. I just worry that his arm blows up again. Cross that bridge when we get there eh?

[whitesoxfan101]

I wonder if they'd consider giving Sale a shot in the rotation if Garcia leaves and Peavy has a setback.

[Soxbadger]

Its hard to tell at this point.

 

My guess is that if Jackson is willing to sign an extension similar to the one Floyd got, that he may be back for a few years.

 

If he wont my guess is that they flip Jackson and keep Garcia.

[WCSox]

That makes sense. So we just roll the Dice on Peav. I guess with a front 4 of Jackson, Danks, Floyd, Buehrle, you can let Peavy work it out in the 5 spot. I just worry that his arm blows up again. Cross that bridge when we get there eh?

 

We're stuck with Peavy and already have almost $70M already committed to payroll next year, with something like 6 or 7 positions to fill. So giving an aging junkballer like Freddy a 2/6 deal is pretty much out of the question. If Peavy isn't ready to go next year, somebody from the minor league system will probably take the #5 spot.

 

[Balta1701]

I wonder if they'd consider giving Sale a shot in the rotation if Garcia leaves and Peavy has a setback.

Sale isn't going to jump to starting in the big leagues without at least some time starting in the minors.

[danman31]

Sale isn't going to jump to starting in the big leagues without at least some time starting in the minors.

That's not how it was originally phrased when his signing went down.

 

"After spending this summer as a reliever, he'll work in the Arizona Fall League as a starter and get the opportunity to make Chicago's rotation in spring training next year."

 

He'll have MLB experience. You can't say definitively that he won't make it. The Sox have the rest of this season as a reliever and the AFL and spring training as a starter to evaluate him. I'd be surprised if he was on the opening day rotation, but we have so little to evaluate him on currently.

[Balta1701]

That's not how it was originally phrased when his signing went down.

 

"After spending this summer as a reliever, he'll work in the Arizona Fall League as a starter and get the opportunity to make Chicago's rotation in spring training next year."

 

He'll have MLB experience. You can't say definitively that he won't make it. The Sox have the rest of this season as a reliever and the AFL and spring training as a starter to evaluate him. I'd be surprised if he was on the opening day rotation, but we have so little to evaluate him on currently.

Honestly...I'll really be surprised if he does a lot of AFL work this year...he's already thrown a lot of innings, I'm not quite sure how that's a good idea.

[danman31]

Honestly...I'll really be surprised if he does a lot of AFL work this year...he's already thrown a lot of innings, I'm not quite sure how that's a good idea.

He's at 113.1 IP between college and the minors right now. Let's say he throws 15 innings the rest of the year. That puts him just short of 130 innings. That's a little on the low end for a full season of minor league starts. The college season starts in February so his innings are over a longer period of time too. By using him as a reliever this year, the inning workload pretty much gets offset. If the Sox want him to compete for a job in the spring, they'll have to get him used to starting again before then. I think the AFL is a good place for him.

[Balta1701]

He's at 113.1 IP between college and the minors right now. Let's say he throws 15 innings the rest of the year. That puts him just short of 130 innings. That's a little on the low end for a full season of minor league starts. The college season starts in February so his innings are over a longer period of time too. By using him as a reliever this year, the inning workload pretty much gets offset. If the Sox want him to compete for a job in the spring, they'll have to get him used to starting again before then. I think the AFL is a good place for him.

The thing that makes me the most uncomfortable about his innings is that prior to this season, his innings high (last year) was 89 innings.

 

If he throws 15 innings the rest of the year, that's 130ish innings...which is an increase of 40 innings over his innings total from 2009. In general, the "safe innings increase Verducci rule" is 25 innings/season, so 40 is pushing it. 3 starts in the AFL and now we're talking about 55+ innings increase over 2009.

[whitesoxfan101]

Yeah, I think the issue here is even if you send him to the AFL to get starting experience, you're going to have to put an innings cap on him in 2011, and that can be a pain in the ass to deal with during a pennant race.

[danman31]

The thing that makes me the most uncomfortable about his innings is that prior to this season, his innings high (last year) was 89 innings.

 

If he throws 15 innings the rest of the year, that's 130ish innings...which is an increase of 40 innings over his innings total from 2009. In general, the "safe innings increase Verducci rule" is 25 innings/season, so 40 is pushing it. 3 starts in the AFL and now we're talking about 55+ innings increase over 2009.

If the AFL counts as innings towards that total, the Cape Cod league should too. After his sophomore year he threw 55 innings at the Cape. That drastically changes your math.

[Balta1701]

If the AFL counts as innings towards that total, the Cape Cod league should too. After his sophomore year he threw 55 innings at the Cape. That drastically changes your math.

Good point, I totally missed those, thanks.

[Real]

I would love to see a six man rotation but unfortunately with the way 25-man rosters are set up, it would give the manager a lack of flexibility on either the bench or in the bullpen. But with the stats indicating our starters having a full run better ERA with extra days rest, it would be a really REALLY strong rotation

[whitesoxfan101]

I would love to see a six man rotation but unfortunately with the way 25-man rosters are set up, it would give the manager a lack of flexibility on either the bench or in the bullpen. But with the stats indicating our starters having a full run better ERA with extra days rest, it would be a really REALLY strong rotation

 

You'll see a six man rotation in the AL sometime in the very near future IMO. Really hard to do that in the NL with the pitcher batting, but I think the day of it in the AL is closer than some realize.

[Jerksticks]

You'll see a six man rotation in the AL sometime in the very near future IMO. Really hard to do that in the NL with the pitcher batting, but I think the day of it in the AL is closer than some realize.

 

Well that makes it harder to reach individual pitching milestones. But I could care less if our guys aren't winning Cy Youngs if they're winning many, many World Series.

[Quin]

I'd love to see our guys have a 6 day rotation for the extra rest.

 

Won't happen though.

[chw42]

Freddy won't be back next year. He's going to get a (well-deserved) handsome contract somewhere else.

 

Only a team like the Royals or Astros would offer Freddy a lot of money for his wins. Everybody else will give him what he truly deserves...5th starter's money.

[Balta1701]

Only a team like the Royals or Astros would offer Freddy a lot of money for his wins. Everybody else will give him what he truly deserves...5th starter's money.

5th starter money for a guy who can throw a good number of innings is still $5-$10 million.

[WCSox]

Only a team like the Royals or Astros would offer Freddy a lot of money for his wins. Everybody else will give him what he truly deserves...5th starter's money.

 

I wouldn't be surprised if a team like the Angels signed him. Everybody needs decent back-of-the-rotation pitching, and history has shown that they'll over-pay (within reason) for it.

 

[Balta1701]

I wouldn't be surprised if a team like the Angels signed him. Everybody needs decent back-of-the-rotation pitching, and history has shown that they'll over-pay (within reason) for it.

I don't know how much money each team will have to spend, but half the NL teams out there wind up looking for middle of the rotation starters every year, and Freddy is def. one of those.

 

The Mets, Cardinals, Phillies (probably not), Dodgers, Brewers, maybe the Padres, Rockies, etc., all might pony up the money on a starter like freddy.

[Chisoxfn]

Its hard to tell at this point.

 

My guess is that if Jackson is willing to sign an extension similar to the one Floyd got, that he may be back for a few years.

 

If he wont my guess is that they flip Jackson and keep Garcia.

I don't think Garcia will be sticking around. The Sox, I believe, will try to extend Jackson (giving him maybe an extra 2 to 3 years). If not, they might keep him they might trade him. And of course there is Chris Sale waiting in the wings as well.

 

Just my 2 cents.

[Chisoxfn]

Yeah, I think the issue here is even if you send him to the AFL to get starting experience, you're going to have to put an innings cap on him in 2011, and that can be a pain in the ass to deal with during a pennant race.

Anyone in there 1st full professional season is going to see a slight innings cap anyway.

[BigSqwert]

I don't think Garcia will be sticking around. The Sox, I believe, will try to extend Jackson (giving him maybe an extra 2 to 3 years). If not, they might keep him they might trade him. And of course there is Chris Sale waiting in the wings as well.

 

Just my 2 cents.

 

So you're saying we may extend, keep, or trade Jackson? I dunno. You're really going out on a limb there.

Edited August 6, 2010 by BigSqwert