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Wild Card chances?


Princess Dye

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QUOTE (Princess Dye @ Aug 5, 2010 -> 10:40 PM)
I think we're five behind TB?

Yeah, I've been watching this myself. I would like to get into the WC race a bit just to have a backup plan in case Minny goes off the charts and wins 40 of 56 or something.

 

If we keep playing well, I figure we can get into this WC race by the end of the month...

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QUOTE (iamshack @ Aug 5, 2010 -> 10:57 PM)
We are coming, my friend...

 

Hey, if the catwalk in their stadium continues to screw over Tampa, then I'm all for it.

 

QUOTE (Jerksticks @ Aug 5, 2010 -> 10:58 PM)
Well how many more times do they play each other?

 

7 more times. And that won't be till mid September.

 

On the flip side, we play Minnesota 9 more times.

Edited by J.Reedfan8
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QUOTE (J.Reedfan8 @ Aug 5, 2010 -> 11:00 PM)
Hey, if the catwalk in their stadium continues to screw over Tampa, then I'm all for it.

 

 

 

7 more times. And that won't be till mid September.

That's the A ring to you, buddy.

 

We will likely be struggling a bit too in mid September...but if we can go 33-21, we may be able to sneak in there...

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QUOTE (Greg Hibbard @ Aug 6, 2010 -> 11:21 AM)
The real hidden juice is BOSTON, guys.

 

 

This just doesn't look like the Bosox's year. Especially now with Youk lost for the season, I don't see it happening.

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QUOTE (PlaySumFnJurny @ Aug 6, 2010 -> 11:32 AM)
This just doesn't look like the Bosox's year. Especially now with Youk lost for the season, I don't see it happening.

Pretty sure you misunderstood his post, he meant for boston to beat the Yankme's and Rays to add losses to their record

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QUOTE (Real @ Aug 6, 2010 -> 11:50 AM)
Pretty sure you misunderstood his post, he meant for boston to beat the Yankme's and Rays to add losses to their record

 

 

Yes. Let me clarify - Boston is good enough to be a serious spoiler, and all division rivals are always a threat even if they have no shot to win the division. If Boston gets hot against its two rivals, the central could come into the WC picture, especially if the Sox and Twins stay hot.

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QUOTE (Greg Hibbard @ Aug 6, 2010 -> 12:19 PM)
Yes. Let me clarify - Boston is good enough to be a serious spoiler, and all division rivals are always a threat even if they have no shot to win the division. If Boston gets hot against its two rivals, the central could come into the WC picture, especially if the Sox and Twins stay hot.

It's possible but the Indians and Royals are just as likely to cool us off at times as well as the Twins. Just look at our division record.

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QUOTE (BigSqwert @ Aug 6, 2010 -> 12:22 PM)
It's possible but the Indians and Royals are just as likely to cool us off at times as well as the Twins. Just look at our division record.

 

I have more faith we'll beat the Indians and Royals for a couple reasons:

 

1) even without Youk, the Red Sox are a wayyyy better team than either the Royals or Indians, and should have a greater degree of expected success against the yanks and rays

2) Our Sox are playing like a way different team now than they were when they were scuffling against the Indians earlier this season

 

Also, the weak spot in the Yanks is the starting rotation...I could see them getting lit up a few times.

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QUOTE (iamshack @ Aug 8, 2010 -> 04:08 AM)
4 games back of the wild card leader, Tampa

I would be amazed (delightfully) if the wild card came out of the central! Screw the AL East! Seems like a distinct possibility, too, with how hot both our division leaders have been.

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Funny thing about the Rays, on May 20th they were 30-11. Since that time they are only 5 over .500 and seem to be falling.

I really don't know if the Rays are better than the Sox and Twins right now.

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Ok guys, some (hugely crude, probably mathematically wonky) analysis:

 

Tampa Bay went 30-11 to start the season (.732), against teams with a weighted winning percentage of .476 (as of August 9th)

The Rays then went 37-33 (.529) over their next 70 games against teams with a weighted winning percentage of .521

 

The final 51 games the Rays play are against teams with a weighted winning percentage of .490. This is largely due to 9 of those games vs. Baltimore.

 

.476...... .490 ....... .521

.732...... (x) .......... .529

 

x would be equivalent to an "expected" winning percentage of .663 in their final 51 games (.490 is 31% of the way between .476 and .521, discounting 31% of the distance between 732 and .529 from .732 would be .663)

 

Therefore, we can expect the Rays to go 34-17 the rest of the way, and win 101 total games.

Edited by Greg Hibbard
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