A Six Man Rotation

[Quin]

So, with the Sox having Peavy-Buehrle-Floyd-Danks-Jackson-Sale all under contract next year, this made me wonder.

 

1. The Sox really love some pitching depth.

2. Sale is the 3rd prospect put on the fast track to the bigs; Gordon, Mitchell looked like he was going to, and now Sale.

3. Kenny probably wants Sale as a starter, not a lefty set up.

4. Kenny floated the idea of the sixth starter around before, I believe in 2006 with McCarthy.

5. Lastly, Ozzie hates back to back righties or lefties.

 

Now, for some number crunches.

 

Buehrle Career Splits (ERA more than a full run lower on 5+ days rest)

I	Split	W	L	W-L%	ERA	G	GS	GF	CG	SHO	SV	IP	H	R	ER	HR	BB	IBB	SO	HBP	BK	WP	BF	WHIP	SO/9	SO/BB
2 Days,GS	1	0	1.000	2.57	1	1	0	0	0	0	7.0	6	2	2	0	1	0	5	1	0	0	30	1.000	6.4	5.00
3 Days,GS	4	1	.800	2.70	6	6	0	0	0	0	40.0	45	13	12	6	9	0	24	1	0	0	163	1.350	5.4	2.67
4 Days,GS	72	58	.554	4.34	175	175	0	12	3	0	1152.1	1286	608	556	139	282	21	649	20	4	13	4878	1.361	5.1	2.30
5 Days,GS	49	36	.576	3.22	106	106	0	10	3	0	739.0	723	302	264	76	151	10	422	21	8	4	3018	1.183	5.1	2.79
6+ Days,GS	16	9	.640	3.41	35	35	0	4	2	0	227.0	210	98	86	24	46	3	124	7	0	3	913	1.128	4.9	2.70

 

Peavy Career Splits (Same here)

I	Split	W	L	W-L%	ERA	G	GS	GF	CG	SHO	SV	IP	H	R	ER	HR	BB	IBB	SO	HBP	BK	WP	BF	WHIP	SO/9	SO/BB
3 Days,GS	1	1	.500	8.10	2	2	0	0	0	0	10.0	10	9	9	2	5	0	11	1	0	0	46	1.500	9.9	2.20
4 Days,GS	49	38	.563	3.82	119	119	0	4	2	0	746.0	693	332	317	84	258	23	737	24	3	16	3151	1.275	8.9	2.86
5 Days,GS	35	27	.565	2.78	81	81	0	3	1	0	531.1	419	176	164	47	146	9	544	18	1	8	2132	1.063	9.2	3.73
6+ Days,GS	17	8	.680	2.91	30	30	0	1	1	0	182.1	145	63	59	16	65	1	167	7	2	4	746	1.152	8.2	2.57

 

Gavin 2010 Splits (His career numbers were all over the place due to his Phillies days)

I	Split	W	L	W-L%	ERA	G	GS	GF	CG	SHO	SV	IP	H	R	ER	HR	BB	IBB	SO	HBP	BK	WP	BF	WHIP	SO/9	SO/BB
4 Days,GS	3	5	.375	4.19	12	12	0	1	0	0	77.1	73	37	36	5	23	0	56	3	0	4	321	1.241	6.5	2.43
5 Days,GS	5	2	.714	2.13	9	9	0	0	0	0	55.0	50	18	13	3	15	1	50	0	0	2	225	1.182	8.2	3.33
6+ Days,GS	0	1	.000	5.25	2	2	0	0	0	0	12.0	15	7	7	0	4	0	11	0	0	1	52	1.583	8.3	2.75

 

Edwin Jackson 2009 Splits (Better indicator than 2010, since it was in our division)

I	Split	W	L	W-L%	ERA	G	GS	GF	CG	SHO	SV	IP	H	R	ER	HR	BB	IBB	SO	HBP	BK	WP	BF	WHIP	SO/9	SO/BB
4 Days,GS	6	6	.500	4.05	17	17	0	0	0	0	106.2	104	53	48	14	34	1	72	4	0	3	447	1.294	6.1	2.12
5 Days,GS	7	2	.778	3.39	14	14	0	1	0	0	93.0	89	36	35	10	30	2	81	0	0	3	387	1.280	7.8	2.70
6+ Days,GS	0	1	.000	1.88	2	2	0	0	0	0	14.1	7	4	3	3	6	0	8	1	0	0	56	0.907	5.0	1.33

 

John Danks 2010 Splits

I	Split	W	L	W-L%	ERA	G	GS	GF	CG	SHO	SV	IP	H	R	ER	HR	BB	IBB	SO	HBP	BK	WP	BF	WHIP	SO/9	SO/BB
4 Days,GS	5	4	.556	3.94	9	9	0	1	1	0	59.1	49	26	26	4	18	0	53	1	0	1	244	1.129	8.0	2.94
5 Days,GS	5	3	.625	2.50	10	10	0	0	0	0	68.1	51	19	19	3	23	0	42	1	0	0	266	1.083	5.5	1.83
6+ Days,GS	1	1	.500	4.12	3	3	0	0	0	0	19.2	20	11	9	1	5	1	19	0	0	0	83	1.271	8.7	3.80

 

Each starter gets 27 starts as opposed to 32.4 starts, and assuming they go 7 innings each time out due to their new found rest, they could still get around 190 innings that Danks and Buehrle covet.

 

Benefits:

1. Keeping pitchers healthy

- Peavy's shoulder issue

- Danks' hand blister last year

- Floyd's hip

- Buehrle having a lot of innings on his arm

2. Allowing the starters to go deeper each time means more rest for Thornton/Pena/Sergio/Jenks/Putz (assuming he could return)/Threets. In this case, Linebrink is either DFA'd with only one year on his contract or traded for nothing. With more rest, Putz/Jenks/Thornton/Sergio could all switch off who comes out, making the games all the tougher when it gets to the pen.

3. Better performance. We've seen what good pitching does this year, but what if it could get even better.

4. Pitchers fresher than other teams for playoffs.

5. Ease Sale into starter role.

 

Draw Backs:

1. One less man in the pen. Essentially the Linebrink role, if the Sox would cut him.

2. The better performances could drive up prices for guys like Danks and EJax.

 

Also, for what it's worth the only two teams I could see pulling this off would be the Sox and Rays, and I would really like to see the Sox think about this next year.

[knightni]

If I had to guess, Sale will be starting 2011 in AAA or AA, while they try to work on his wildness.

 

He hasn't even gotten a major league batter out yet; why rush the kid?

[SoxAce]

If I had to guess, Sale will be starting 2011 in AAA or AA, while they try to work on his wildness.

 

Kid walked 14(!!!) people in 103 innings in college (1.2 BB per 9) just this year. He pitched only 10.1 innings in the minors with a ridiculous 19:6 SO/BB rate pitching as a reliever which he is not used to, not to mention going straight from A+ to AAA (which is understandable of a bit of 'wildness'). He might have some flaws, but wild isn't one of them. I agree however there is no chance he sniffs the rotation before the 2011 season, if at all (unless there is alot of injuries in the rotation or if he is just dominating people that forces the sox hand) I think he starts in A+ or AA in the rotation next season. If he starts in AA, that'll further help my prediction to JPN about the Barons being good again in 2011.

Edited August 9, 2010 by J.Reedfan8

[knightni]

Well, he was and has been wild. He's not mlb ready for at least another season and a half.

[Quin]

If I had to guess, Sale will be starting 2011 in AAA or AA, while they try to work on his wildness.

 

He hasn't even gotten a major league batter out yet; why rush the kid?

 

I should put a footnote here;

 

This would all depend on Jackson not being traded, Peavy being healthy, and Sale showing he can be a MLB pitcher this year and a starter in the AFL.

[Kyyle23]

Well, he was and has been wild. He's not mlb ready for at least another season and a half.

 

he has thrown to 2 batters in his entire MLB career Knight, labeling him as wild is a little presumptive.

[southsider2k5]

If Peavy is healthy, or projected to ready by the time spring starts, I really think we see a trade of one of our starters. Regardless remember that contracts start coming up after 2011.

[Balta1701]

If Peavy is healthy, or projected to ready by the time spring starts, I really think we see a trade of one of our starters. Regardless remember that contracts start coming up after 2011.

Nothing would surprise me with Kenny...but without an obvious takeover candidate...and no, Sale doesn't count, I seriously don't expect him to make a move that makes the pitching staff worse.

 

He might go 2007 style and do a deal that brings in significantly more young pitching, but the ideal guy to do that with is Jackson, and I still doubt that any team is going to line up to be the 4th team to trade for him in 2 years.

[Paint it Black]

No. Why would you want to take away starts from Danks/Floyd (or whoever your two best starters are)?

[elrockinMT]

If Peavy is healthy, or projected to ready by the time spring starts, I really think we see a trade of one of our starters. Regardless remember that contracts start coming up after 2011.

 

 

Pitching wins games (coupled with a good defense IMO) and once you have set up a dominanting starting staff you shouldn't mess with it. Trading one of those guys would be a mistake

[BigSqwert]

Pitching wins games (coupled with a good defense IMO) and once you have set up a dominanting starting staff you shouldn't mess with it. Trading one of those guys would be a mistake

Doesn't seem like Kenny to want to trade away great starting pitching. It was just this past off season where he was trying to assemble the greatest pitching staff ever.

[Rowand44]

As always, a 6 man rotation is just a terrible idea.

 

 

[Milkman delivers]

Draw Backs:

1. One less man in the pen. Essentially the Linebrink role, if the Sox would cut him.

2. The better performances could drive up prices for guys like Danks and EJax.

 

You could argue that it would hurt their trade value, too. A team may not want them during a pennant run because you wouldn't be able to expect them to pitch on a normal routine for anyone but that of a 6-man rotation.

[Balta1701]

As always, a 6 man rotation is just a terrible idea.

On a 26 man roster, it could be a spectacular idea.

[LittleHurt05]

Draw Backs:

1. One less man in the pen. Essentially the Linebrink role, if the Sox would cut him.

2. The better performances could drive up prices for guys like Danks and EJax.

 

You are throwing a rookie into the rotation who will probably have several short outings, so that extra person in the bullpen would be even more necessary.

[Balta1701]

You are throwing a rookie into the rotation who will probably have several short outings, so that extra person in the bullpen would be even more necessary.

On the other hand...if the other 5 guys in your rotation are significantly better on extra rest, then they might last longer and actually cut the innings the bullpen needs to take over on their starts.

[Quin]

On the other hand...if the other 5 guys in your rotation are significantly better on extra rest, then they might last longer and actually cut the innings the bullpen needs to take over on their starts.

 

Going back and looking at Danks:

 

He pitches 6.81 IP per start on 5 days rest, and 6.56 on 4 days rest. With only 2 innings needed from the bullpen, Pena and Santos could pickup Sale if he faltered and get it to the back of the pen.

 

Also, someone said taking starts from Floyd and Danks. Wouldn't it be better for them to have 5 less starts if the quality of the other 27 starts is longer outings and with ERA's in the 2's instead of the 3's and 4's?