The Official Run Into Outs Thread

[chw42]

I hate this argument. There are WS winning teams that arent "optimized".

 

Of course there are, but haven't you heard that baseball is 60% skill and 40% luck?

[RockRaines]

Of course there are, but haven't you heard that baseball is 60% skill and 40% luck?

And 0% lineup calculators.

[whitesoxfan101]

I hate this argument. There are WS winning teams that arent "optimized". Lineup calculators have next to zero value to me, and probably pretty much all of professional baseball.

 

I actually don't have as much of an issue with our everyday lineup as most people here do. We don't have many great choices because we basically have a bad offense which is numerically boosted into a mediocre one by our home ballpark. If Mark Teahen takes the at bats of Mark Kotsay when he returns (which I doubt he will since Kotsay is already getting way more at bats than he should be, but I will try not to make that complaint again until it actually happens), the only major beef I'd have left with Ozzie's everyday lineups is that Ramon Castro should be playing every game we face a left handed pitcher, like last night. My issue isn't as much with the lineups as it is how the offense is managed in games, such as the bunting thing last night.

Edited August 10, 2010 by whitesoxfan101

[chw42]

And 0% lineup calculators.

 

These lineup calculators are pretty accurate. The usual Ozzie lineup averages 4.57 runs in that calculator. This team averages 4.57 runs...

 

You don't say...

[RockRaines]

I actually don't have as much of an issue with our everyday lineup as most people here do. We don't have many great choices because we basically have a bad offense which is numerically boosted into a mediocre one by our home ballpark. If Mark Teahen takes the at bats of Mark Kotsay when he returns (which I doubt he will since Kotsay is already getting way more at bats than he should be, but I will try not to make that complaint again until it actually happens), the only major beef I'd have left with Ozzie's everyday lineups is that Ramon Castro should be playing every game we face a left handed pitcher, like last night. My issue isn't as much with the lineups as it is how the offense is managed in games, such as the bunting thing last night.

I was wondering why Castro didnt play, maybe it had something to do with Jackson wanting AJ behind the plate? That was confusing to me as well. If Teahen doesnt take Kotsay's at bats, I will go nuts. He's a MUCH better hitter than Kotsay, especially at this point.

[BigSqwert]

If Teahen doesnt take Kotsay's at bats, I will go nuts. He's a MUCH better hitter than Kotsay, especially at this point.

 

And why are they waiting so long to bring him back? He's a noticeable upgrade over Kotsay. He should be here already.

[whitesoxfan101]

I was wondering why Castro didnt play, maybe it had something to do with Jackson wanting AJ behind the plate? That was confusing to me as well. If Teahen doesnt take Kotsay's at bats, I will go nuts. He's a MUCH better hitter than Kotsay, especially at this point.

 

With Dayan's inability to walk, I won't get too upset if he's sent to triple A for Teahen as long as Teahen gets the at bats of Kotsay at this point. We have some hitting LHP issues right now though between the DH spot if Dayan continues to look like he did last night and LHP expose his free swinging ways (or is sent to AAA soon, which is likely), RF, CF to a lesser degree (Rios has actually been better against RHP. although not terrible against LHP), and obviously C if AJ plays.

 

As for the AJ point, there could be something to that. Plus, if you include last nights games, 3 of the next 4 going in were against left handed pitchers (Perkins and Liriano pitch Wednesday and Thursday), so maybe we wanted to get him in there against one of them? But I just think Castro should be playing against every left handed pitcher we see. I'm guessing Ramon only plays against one of the two lefties in the Minnesota series, but I hope I'm wrong.

Edited August 10, 2010 by whitesoxfan101

[RockRaines]

With Dayan's inability to walk, I won't get too upset if he's sent to triple A for Teahen as long as Teahen gets the at bats of Kotsay at this point. We have some hitting LHP issues right now though between the DH spot if Dayan continues to look like he did last night and LHP expose his free swinging ways (or is sent to AAA soon, which is likely), RF, CF to a lesser degree (Rios has actually been better against RHP. although not terrible against LHP), and obviously C if AJ plays.

 

As for the AJ point, there could be something to that. Plus, if you include last nights games, 3 of the next 4 going in were against left handed pitchers (Perkins and Liriano pitch Wednesday and Thursday), so maybe we wanted to get him in there against one of them? But I just think Castro should be playing against every left handed pitcher we see. I'm guessing Ramon only plays against one of the two lefties in the Minnesota series, but I hope I'm wrong.

The book is out on Dayan. Up and in, he swings. Doesnt lay off any high heat, and cant hit it.

[Balta1701]

The book is out on Dayan. Up and in, he swings. Doesnt lay off any high heat, and cant hit it.

And now he either needs to adapt or head back down.

[whitesoxfan101]

And now he either needs to adapt or head back down.

 

Considering he and I are still tied in the walks category, I'm thinking option #2.

Edited August 10, 2010 by whitesoxfan101

[Chisoxfn]

I don't think the difference is that drastic that a lot of things are getting thrown out the window.

 

I don't have all the numbers, but the average MLB team scored 4.73 runs in 2003. In 2009, it's 4.61. That's around a 18 run difference.

That is a decent difference. Baseball is won or lost by 1 run and that 2.5% difference could impact many calculations. I also want to point out that in 2010, the average runs scored (as of this point in time) is 4.42 runs.

 

The change between 2003 and the current year production is ~50 runs. That is a huge difference. Or a 6.55% percentage change.

[chw42]

That is a decent difference. Baseball is won or lost by 1 run and that 2.5% difference could impact many calculations. I also want to point out that in 2010, the average runs scored (as of this point in time) is 4.42 runs.

 

The change between 2003 and the current year production is ~50 runs. That is a huge difference. Or a 6.55% percentage change.

 

It wouldn't surprise me if that figure went up. Maybe this year is just one of those down years for hitting.

 

I think it might be accurate to say that in the current post steroid era, the average runs per game should be around 4.55 to 4.6.

 

http://www.baseballprospectus.com/statisti....php?cid=139594

 

Looking at the RE figures of this season, it is lower than what it had been and this is a progressive thing. However, there is one thing in common with almost all of those matrices. The RE of a runner on first with nobody out and the RE of a runner on second with one out is always around a .2 run difference.

 

The numbers may look different, but some of the conventional methods of sabermetrics still do apply.

[MattZakrowski]

The decrease in scoring could also be attributed to the relatively recent sabermetric trend of valuing defense highly. Guys like Jermaine Dye don't get to play in the outfield as often (selection bias).

[fathom]

The last two years, Rios stole 56 bases and was caught 13 times. This year, he'd matched that total of caught stealing and only has 24 steals.

[Balta1701]

The last two years, Rios stole 56 bases and was caught 13 times. This year, he'd matched that total of caught stealing and only has 24 steals.

Did anyone expect that, once he got on base with 2 outs in the first inning, there would be any other result other than a CS by him?

[BigSqwert]

ML leading 56 CS for the Sox including Rios' tonight. Next highest is 39. That's a heck of a lot of outs to give away.

[fathom]

ML leading 56 CS for the Sox including Rios' tonight. Next highest is 39. That's a heck of a lot of outs to give away.

 

That doesn't even take into account the numerous outs we've given up with bunts.

[Quin]

Did anyone expect that, once he got on base with 2 outs in the first inning, there would be any other result other than a CS by him?

 

It's grindy bay-by! He's a P-T-Per with that grind bay-by!

[BigSqwert]

That doesn't even take into account the numerous outs we've given up with bunts.

Or runners picked off. I thought CS would include those but looking at our box score Pierre's pick off wasn't included as a CS.

[chw42]

http://www.fangraphs.com/community/index.p...er-think-again/

 

Nice article about run scoring, or lackthereof this year.

[Eminor3rd]

Thank you for making this thread. Fire Ozzie, he is losing games for us.

[fathom]

Thank you for making this thread. Fire Ozzie, he is losing games for us.

 

No reason to say Fire Ozzie right now. Hopefully we win this division, and then that's not even a thought. However, if we do not make the postseason, there needs to be some changes to the way the team is constructed. Lots of time to think about this, so I'm going to do the best I can to enjoy the pennant race. The one bright spot no matter what is the run we had vs NL helped our attendance for rest of the season.

[Quin]

I wouldn't fire Ozzie.

 

But he'd never get input at all again into building the roster.

[ThunderBolt]

Ozzie Ball is shaping up to be one of the most disastrous offensive experiments in recent memory. At least the basecloggers are gone . It's like half of our roster is being used to kill the other half of the rosters rallies.

[fathom]

Ozzie Ball is shaping up to be one of the most disastrous offensive experiments in recent memory. At least the basecloggers are gone . It's like half of our roster is being used to kill the other half of the rosters rallies.

 

Hard to say it's one of the biggest disasters based on what our final record is likely to be. Based on our record vs AL teams though, it does seems like Ozzieball is not the way to go.

Edited August 11, 2010 by fathom