The Official Run Into Outs Thread

[whitesoxfan101]

I'm not a "fire Ozzie" guy but I literally get angry when the Sox get a fast guy on to lead off the inning (Pierre, Rios, etc.) and a good contact hitter with power comes up (Ramirez, Beckham) and Ozzie calls for a bunt. There's no reason to do that at all. Sure you have no guarantees with a steal attempt but at least try a hit and run... something.

 

He's just not a very good manager. I know the 2005 forever people will never come to my side on this one, but Ozzie not only loves running into outs and makes poor lineups, but he also chooses to not run so often on the rare occasion he actually should (with a fast guy like Pierre on base in close and late situations).

 

The idea of offensive baseball is to not make outs, because you only get 27 of them a game. Yeah, having people that can run is nice, but at the end of the day, the more people you have on base and the less outs you give away, the more likely you are to score. It's a simple concept, but also one that Ozzie Guillen cannot grasp.

Edited August 10, 2010 by whitesoxfan101

[Balta1701]

If that was the 7th game in the WS and you NEEDED a runner in scoring position no matter what, you definitely bunt the guy over there, and thats why the Sox did it that night. It was the correct move.

Should Bill Mueller have bunted?

[RockRaines]

Should Bill Mueller have bunted?

Really? I'm not going to go and research all of the great bunts in WS history, because its a waste of time. You know its the correct move to get a player into scoring position at any cost in that situation.

 

And the Red Sox are gay anyway.

[chw42]

Because if Pierre gets caught stealing you would come on here and say how stupid he is for running into outs. Getting your fastest player into scoring position at 2nd base in a tie game with the middle of the order coming up with TWO chances to get a hit and score the guy is frankly an ideal situation. Of course since we didnt win the game, its becomes alot easier to try and find something to criticize.

 

Where are all of the posts about how Putz should be DFA'd?

 

Pierre will only fail 25% of the time. That's like saying the guy hitting .750 is a bad hitter and shouldn't be allowed to hit in big situations.

 

Sure, it's contextual and you don't always do one thing or the other, but it seems like Ozzie is always bunting Pierre over.

 

And can we please stop trying to defend Jenks? Putz has been a hell of a lot better than Bobby this year. People have more patience with him.

[RockRaines]

He's just not a very good manager. I know the 2005 forever people will never come to my side on this one, but Ozzie not only loves running into outs and makes poor lineups, but he also chooses to not run so often on the rare occasion he actually should (with a fast guy like Pierre on base in close and late situations).

 

The idea of offensive baseball is to not make outs, because you only get 27 of them a game. Yeah, having people that can run is nice, but at the end of the day, the more people you have on base and the less outs you give away, the more likely you are to score. It's a simple concept, but also one that Ozzie Guillen cannot grasp.

You should start your own thread called WSF101's managerial debut and put in all the starting lineups and actual moves during the game that you would use. Then let us all critique said moves and rosters as you go along.

[whitesoxfan101]

Really? I'm not going to go and research all of the great bunts in WS history, because its a waste of time. You know its the correct move to get a player into scoring position at any cost in that situation.

 

And the Red Sox are gay anyway.

 

There's really not much of a point of having Juan Pierre on your team if he can't steal a base late in a close game. Plus, by bunting in that spot, you put all of your eggs in the basket of two struggling hitters in Rios and Quentin, since you'd have to be an idiot to pitch to Konerko with men on base right now.

[whitesoxfan101]

You should start your own thread called WSF101's managerial debut and put in all the starting lineups and actual moves during the game that you would use. Then let us all critique said moves and rosters as you go along.

 

Oooh, you're extra pissy today. Do you work for the Sox btw, or is it just some close friends that do who you feel you must stand up for?

[shakes]

The probabilities show bunting is an awful decision unless you have a pitcher at-bat or a terrible match-up with a hitter. Granted, when you have a runner on second base, no outs and the likes of Andruw Jones pulling the ball, I'd still rather attempt the bunt.

 

The probabilities don't account for the situation. Putting your fastest baserunner in scoring position, as the go ahead run, with your 3,4, and 5 hitters up next is an ideal situation. I can't really understand how people have a problem with this.

Edited August 10, 2010 by shakes

[chw42]

Really? I'm not going to go and research all of the great bunts in WS history, because its a waste of time. You know its the correct move to get a player into scoring position at any cost in that situation.

 

And the Red Sox are gay anyway.

 

The correct move is to move him into scoring position. But the best one is to get him there without giving up any outs.

[mmmmmbeeer]

Simon wasnt shaken enough that he couldnt throw 3 fastballs up to Viciedo which would have him screwing himself down into the dirt. IN that situation you want a hitter up that give you the best chance to win the game regardless of the other team's pitching decision. Vicedo wasnt that guy, especially last night. I could have struck Dayan out last night.

 

 

This is the guy who would have gone 3-0 to AJ when AJ was doing nothing more than trying his best to give the O's a free out. Even the O's announcer was all over Simon's inability to throw a strike. So, in other words, I do think Simon was plenty shaken and was prone to make a mistake.

 

I don't know man, I'm not trying to get into it with you or anything ..we have our opinions and I can see your point of view and certainly respect it. I'm probably a bit quicker to jump the gun than most on Ozzie because I think he's just an absolutely miserable manager which, of course, causes me to put every move under a microscope.

[RockRaines]

Pierre will only fail 25% of the time. That's like saying the guy hitting .750 is a bad hitter and shouldn't be allowed to hit in big situations.

 

Sure, it's contextual and you don't always do one thing or the other, but it seems like Ozzie is always bunting Pierre over.

 

And can we please stop trying to defend Jenks? Putz has been a hell of a lot better than Bobby this year. People have more patience with him.

Who's defending Bobby in that post? The collective Soxtalk attitude after a tough loss is either DFA someone, fire Ozzie, or talk about how much KW sucks for not putting a good team on the field. Its par for the course.

 

 

And I usually hate bunting for that reason above, but with the ridiculous mud pit that took shape at first base and the confidence that I have that Rios and Konerko could get a hit with a man in scoring position, I wasnt very upset with bunting with Alexei there. Honestly I would have rather put on the hit and run if I had Omar up at bat.

[LittleHurt05]

Should Bill Mueller have bunted?

 

Would Bill Mueller have gotten the bunt down? He had 0 sacrifices in 460 AB's that season.

[RockRaines]

Oooh, you're extra pissy today. Do you work for the Sox btw, or is it just some close friends that do who you feel you must stand up for?

I was being serious, its a pretty good experiment. You seem to think his rosters and in game moves are crappy, I think its worth putting your opinions out there. Sorry for suggesting it.

[chw42]

Who's defending Bobby in that post? The collective Soxtalk attitude after a tough loss is either DFA someone, fire Ozzie, or talk about how much KW sucks for not putting a good team on the field. Its par for the course.

 

 

And I usually hate bunting for that reason above, but with the ridiculous mud pit that took shape at first base and the confidence that I have that Rios and Konerko could get a hit with a man in scoring position, I wasnt very upset with bunting with Alexei there. Honestly I would have rather put on the hit and run if I had Omar up at bat.

 

You were defending Jenks or trying to make a point of all the "negativity" or something like that.

 

And you wouldn't be depending on Konerko and Rios, you'd be depending on Quentin and Rios. Nobody in their right mind would pitch to Konerko with a base open.

[RockRaines]

You were defending Jenks or trying to make a point of all the "negativity" or something like that.

 

And you wouldn't be depending on Konerko and Rios, you'd be depending on Quentin and Rios. Nobody in their right mind would pitch to Konerko with a base open.

Still two of our best hitters, especially with runners in scoring position. It couldnt be a more ideal situation.

[chw42]

Still two of our best hitters, especially with runners in scoring position. It couldnt be a more ideal situation.

 

It'd be more ideal if Pierre was on second with nobody out.

[whitesoxfan101]

I was being serious, its a pretty good experiment. You seem to think his rosters and in game moves are crappy, I think its worth putting your opinions out there. Sorry for suggesting it.

 

I'm not smart enough to manage a baseball team, not even remotely close, and I am guessing the same can be said for most posters here. Which is why it concerns me that Ozzie makes mistakes so elementary that even most of us can obviously recognize them.

Edited August 10, 2010 by whitesoxfan101

[RockRaines]

I'm not smart enough to manage a baseball team, not even remotely close, and I am guessing the same can be said for most posters here. Which is why it concerns me that Ozzie makes mistakes so elementary that even most of us here can obviously recognize them.

So why dont you just put yours out there. It's one thing to continue to keep saying something is wrong, its another to try and put something out there that you think is right. Based on your critique of Ozzie, it most likely would be better than what he puts out there and the moves he makes in the game.

 

i'll edit this so you dont once again think im being "pissy" and attacking you.

 

One of your main points was that Ozzie makes terrible lineups. How about you start with that? Just post the lineup you think you would want that day, and everyone else can put theirs as well. It's pretty low risk for criticism since you cant really prove what would have been better.

Edited August 10, 2010 by RockRaines

[BigSqwert]

Damn I hope we win tonight. Tempers are starting to flare around here.

[chw42]

So why dont you just put yours out there. It's one thing to continue to keep saying something is wrong, its another to try and put something out there that you think is right. Based on your critique of Ozzie, it most likely would be better than what he puts out there and the moves he makes in the game.

 

i'll edit this so you dont once again think im being "pissy" and attacking you.

 

One of your main points was that Ozzie makes terrible lineups. How about you start with that? Just post the lineup you think you would want that day, and everyone else can put theirs as well. It's pretty low risk for criticism since you cant really prove what would have been better.

 

It's not that hard to run the lineup experiment.

 

You put the current lineup into a lineup optimizer, see how many runs it averages.

 

You put the lineup you want into a lineup optimizer, see how many runs it averages.

 

I've done this before, the lineup I put in there scored around .2 runs more than Ozzie's lineups. That's mostly because he likes hitting Kotsay 6th. Over a whole season, that lineup that averages .2 runs more scores 32 more runs.

 

That's a big difference.

Edited August 10, 2010 by chw42

[whitesoxfan101]

So why dont you just put yours out there. It's one thing to continue to keep saying something is wrong, its another to try and put something out there that you think is right. Based on your critique of Ozzie, it most likely would be better than what he puts out there and the moves he makes in the game.

 

You don't bunt when your best basestealer is on base. You especially don't do it late in the game. And you double especially don't do it when the man you are having give himself up is hitting .323 since the all star break (Alexei), the man behind him has an OPS of .656 since said break (Rios), and if you get that man out, you can walk the best player on the team (Konerko, who has a 1 OPS since the break) to put the inning in the hands of a man hitting .174 since the all star break (Quentin).

 

These are concepts that any idiot could understand. You don't bunt your best basestealer to 2nd, and you don't take the bat out of the hands of two red hot hitters to put the inning in the hands of two ice cold ones.

[Chisoxfn]

Just to point something out, a lot of sabermetric studies are relatively obsolete due to the steroid era coming to an end. A lot of the factors/components that came into play regarding the impacts of getting thrown out, etc, change when in general scoring and offensive output are down.

 

It is why teams are starting to realize how undervalued strong defensive players can be as well as the importance of running. Quite frankly, stats are important, but I have little problems with teams that are aggressive on the basepaths because I firmly believe you can create opportunities, etc. There is a time and a place for everything though but fundamentally I've been very happy with this White Sox team.

[RockRaines]

You don't bunt when your best basestealer is on base. You especially don't do it late in the game. And you double especially don't do it when the man you are having give himself up is hitting .323 since the all star break (Alexei), the man behind him has an OPS of .656 since said break (Rios), and if you get that man out, you can walk the best player on the team (Konerko, who has a 1 OPS since the break) to put the inning in the hands of a man hitting .174 since the all star break (Quentin).

 

These are concepts that any idiot could understand. You don't bunt your best basestealer to 2nd, and you don't take the bat out of the hands of two red hot hitters to put the inning in the hands of two ice cold ones.

Thats a good start, alot better than just "he sucks" or "he's stupid."

[RockRaines]

It's not that hard to run the lineup experiment.

 

You put the current lineup into a lineup optimizer, see how many runs it averages.

 

You put the lineup you want into a lineup optimizer, see how many runs it averages.

 

I've done this before, the lineup I put in there scored around .2 runs more than Ozzie's lineups. That's mostly because he likes hitting Kotsay 6th. Over a whole season, that lineup that averages .2 runs more scores 32 more runs.

 

That's a big difference.

I hate this argument. There are WS winning teams that arent "optimized". Lineup calculators have next to zero value to me, and probably pretty much all of professional baseball.

Edited August 10, 2010 by RockRaines

[chw42]

Just to point something out, a lot of sabermetric studies are relatively obsolete due to the steroid era coming to an end. A lot of the factors/components that came into play regarding the impacts of getting thrown out, etc, change when in general scoring and offensive output are down.

 

It is why teams are starting to realize how undervalued strong defensive players can be as well as the importance of running. Quite frankly, stats are important, but I have little problems with teams that are aggressive on the basepaths because I firmly believe you can create opportunities, etc. There is a time and a place for everything though but fundamentally I've been very happy with this White Sox team.

 

I don't think the difference is that drastic that a lot of things are getting thrown out the window.

 

I don't have all the numbers, but the average MLB team scored 4.73 runs in 2003. In 2009, it's 4.61. That's around a 18 run difference.