Hey! What's all this lying around?

[greg775]

Great post Quinarvy!

 

There's been far too much Twins Envy and Twins Love on this website. The Twins aren't invincible, nor are they light years ahead of the Sox. In fact, the two teams are about as evenly matched as they could possibly be, with the Twins holding a big edge in head-to-head W-L due more to good luck than anything else.

 

Here is my proof that the Twins and Sox are just about dead even this year.

 

The Twins 4 game edge in the standings sounds big, but it is merely 2 head-to-head wins. The Twins have beaten the Sox 10 times, but 7 of those wins are by one run. Pick your most agonizing two Sox losses to the Twins, and change one thing in those two games to make the Sox win, and the teams are tied in the standings. What if Bobby Jenks nailed down the save in the game when the Sox lead by 3 in the ninth? What if Thornton threw a letters-high fastball to Thome (who can't catch up to high heat) instead of a belt-high one, and he whiffs instead of hitting a walk-off home run? When you lose 7 one-run games, it's easy to find one thing in a couple of games that, had it gone differently, would have flipped the outcome. That is how far back the Sox are behind the Twins: two bad pitches, or two missing clutch hits, or two Twins seeing-eye singles that just eluded a Sox fielder's glove.

 

The Twins are +4 games ahead of the Sox in the standings, but +5 games ahead during head-to-head play. That means the Sox have played the rest of MLB one game better than the Twins so far this season. If the Twins are so great, why do the Sox have a better record vs. the rest of MLB?

 

The Sox and Twins have played 15 times so far this season. With tonight's 11-0 shellacking, the runs scored by both teams over those 15 games now stands at 71 runs for the Sox, and 72 runs for the Twins. If those 71 and 72 runs had scored at different points in time, the games won/lost would be something other than 5 games won by the Sox and 10 games won by the Twins. In fact, if the runs were basically evenly distributed, the Sox would have won 7 times and the Twins 8 times. And the teams would be tied for first.

 

Yes, I realize that at the end of the day all that counts is wins and losses, but when you look at the evidence, the Twins and Sox are a lot more evenly matched than most people probably think. The difference right now is very small, and the Sox still have 3 more games versus the Twins at home to close the gap.

 

 

So as Bluto would say: LET'S GO-O-O-O-O-O-O-O-O-O-O!!!!!!

 

You lost me on the second graph when you said the Twins are holding a big lead in the series advantage due to luck more than anything else.

Not quite. They have owned us head to head.

Sox have a lot of work to do being four back. This upcoming weekend should tell a lot. Royals split with the Yankees in a four-game set recently ahd have been playing well.

Edited August 20, 2010 by greg775

[stretchstretch]

That is how far back the Sox are behind the Twins: two bad pitches, or two missing clutch hits, or two Twins seeing-eye singles that just eluded a Sox fielder's glove.

 

 

I hear you man, it literally is just that close. But you have to wonder why those season determining single pitches, or seeing eye singles ALWAYS seem to go their way. It's not like year after year they kick us out of the race over a few days by blowouts, it's those agonizing "if one thing happened" scenarios.

 

I think those one thing in a team's favor comes from confidence, and WRT to the Sox they have that edge just knowing. Same way you see Boston fans on their feet when their team is down 7 in the 9th, the team and fans simply know a charge is going to be made. I cannot recall the last time I EVER saw a Boston home game where they went down quietly on a few ground balls and a strikeout. No matter the situation, they find a way to threaten..... MN I swear between them and Boston there cannot be any other teams in baseball even close to scoring more runs at home after the 6th inning, it's uncanny....

[elgonzo4sox]

I hear you man, it literally is just that close. But you have to wonder why those season determining single pitches, or seeing eye singles ALWAYS seem to go their way. It's not like year after year they kick us out of the race over a few days by blowouts, it's those agonizing "if one thing happened" scenarios.

 

I think those one thing in a team's favor comes from confidence, and WRT to the Sox they have that edge just knowing. Same way you see Boston fans on their feet when their team is down 7 in the 9th, the team and fans simply know a charge is going to be made. I cannot recall the last time I EVER saw a Boston home game where they went down quietly on a few ground balls and a strikeout. No matter the situation, they find a way to threaten..... MN I swear between them and Boston there cannot be any other teams in baseball even close to scoring more runs at home after the 6th inning, it's uncanny....

 

I think you make a good point about confidence. Sox hitters are failing in the clutch now - 1 for 10 in Sunday's game is bad. That's why Ozzie is so frustrated: he takes a lot of grief for his smallball approach and giving up outs, but he did manage to create 10 RISP opportunities in Sunday's game, and the team came through with just one hit (Konerko's single after Rios's leadoff triple). We don't need an HR when there's a RISP - a good single will do, or even a productive out if the runner's on third. And we couldn't even get that.

 

I don't see enough Red Sox games to know anything about their ability to come from behind. I do know that they have major league baseball's most infamous blown save, when they lost Game 6 of the 1986 World Series to the Mets when they were up by 2 runs with 2 outs and nobody on, and two strikes on the batter, thereby prolonging their World Series drought for what turned out to be another 18 years.

 

I did happen to check our head-to-head record versus the Red Sox this morning, to get ready for the upcoming series with them, and discovered that over the past 10 years, we have won or tied the season series with the Red Sox 9 times. So we match up well against them. Versus the Twins, however, we're pretty pathetic over the years, although we beat them solidly in 2005.

 

[elgonzo4sox]

 

Twins on the verge of being shut out for the second time in five games...Rangers lead 4-0 and will take a combined no-hitter into the 9th.

 

Twins line so far: 0 runs, 0 hits, 1 error

 

If the Twins lose, they will be 2-3 in their last 5 games, with 3 more to come in Arlington...

 

 

[elgonzo4sox]

 

Twins eked out a hit (Mauer ground ball up the middle that got past a diving SS Elvis Andrus), but no runs, and were indeed shut out for the second time in five games, meaning they are 2-3 in their past 5 games.

 

Phil Rogers and others have already crowned the Twins AL Central champs, but I say there is plenty of time left, and the Twins are far from invincible. Twuck the Fins!!!

 

[The Ginger Kid]

it's nice to still have a chance in August. Think of all the teams and their fans who can't say that.