Part Time Thome Kills Sox Again

[kitekrazy]

http://www.chicagotribune.com/sports/baseb...0,3994057.story

 

BTW, there's an error in this article. Thomas is now a DH for the Twins.

 

A change of scenery can impact a player. A lot of it has to do with who is hitting before or after you, who's on base, are they the type of guy on base who knows how to distract a pitcher.

Kotasy can't or never can replace a hitter like Thome but it gives you options to rest guys on the field and still give them bats. Nothing wrong with a full time DH but they should be able to field a position other than one held by an equal or better hitter.

 

I still believe the Sox had hopes Dye would have changed his mind. Money always seems to change a player's mind. Not so with Dye so I have to give him a thumbs up for walking away from the game and being content with his accomplishments. Not Brett Favre there.

 

Not signing Thome probably has more to do with Carlos Quentin than giving the legendary Mark Kotsay more at bats.

Edited September 13, 2010 by kitekrazy

[fathom]

Not signing Thome probably has more to do with Carlos Quentin than giving the legendary Mark Kotsay more at bats.

 

No, it really doesn't. Considering Kotsay was never even given an opportunity to show whether or not he could play RF adequately, it sure seems like Ozzie had a choice between Thome and Kotsay, and he went with Kotsay. Also, don't forget that his son ripped on Thome prior to the season and seemed to blame his "softness" on why the Sox didn't achieve too much during his time here.

[LVSoxFan]

Key to the whole season? No. Biggest single reason, probably, yes.

 

The biggest single reason we didn't run away with the division is not having Thome?

<_>

 

[NorthSideSox72]

The biggest single reason we didn't run away with the division is not having Thome?

<_>

I said nothing of running away with the division. I said the single biggest reason, but not the only one, for us not being closer to MIN (or past them) is Thome.

 

[Balta1701]

I still believe the Sox had hopes Dye would have changed his mind. Money always seems to change a player's mind. Not so with Dye so I have to give him a thumbs up for walking away from the game and being content with his accomplishments. Not Brett Favre there.

You do realize that JD has not submitted his retirement papers to the league and has said that he may attempt a comeback next year, right?

[CWSOX45]

Number wise:

 

Thome has been worth 3.3 WAR this year.

 

Subtract 3 wins from Twins and they're 82-61.

 

Add 3 to us and we're 82-61.

 

Round up to 4 wins and they're 81-62 and we're 83-60.

 

Jesus christ, enough with the Wins Above Replacement jargon. We can sit here and beat this to death all day. I'm not saying that WAR isn't a good metric to measure overall talent of a player, but it has its flaws, and simply saying that adding Jim Thome to our roster would equate in 3 plus wins and taking away 3 wins from the Twins is a ridiculous hypothetical assumption. Especially when all the Twins do is produce what Fangraphs would define as "Replacement Level Players." I swear to god we've been beat by career AAA, and AAAA+ Twins players for the last 10+ years.

 

The Twins have been the same team they have been for the past decade, regardless of who is on that roster they play the game the right way. They execute in critical situations, they do the little things like driving a man in on 3rd with less than 2 outs. (Something we have really struggled with in the past and present.) They get bunts down, they don't run themselves out of innings, and most importantly each and every hitter has a plan when they step up to the plate. They also play sound defense, they don't beat themselves. You have to beat them.

 

You want to know why the Sox aren't in first this year and the Twins are? Look at the god d**mn records against Central Division foes. The Twins beat Central Division teams, they beat them early, they beat them late, and they beat them often. We didn't, and we still don't as recently as last week.

 

Pinning this all on not bringing back Thome is ridiculous. There are so many variables that come into effect with this. We didn't start playing baseball until June, the bullpen was atrocious in the month of August, and most importantly the major difference between us and the Twins is simple baseball execution.

 

The bottom line is statistics have their spot in the game, but it's insane to simply just suggest that adding one player immediately adds 3 plus wins to our team. If we had kept Thome, would we have been better on paper? Yes absolutely, but does Jim put up the exact pace of production that he has with the Twins? Who knows....my gut feeling tells me no, but at the same time he would easily would have surpassed Kotsay's production, there's no doubt about that.

 

Again let me just reiterate that I like WAR, wOBA, and other statistics to measure performance, but using WAR in an instance like this just doesn't work for me. It's the same thing with Fangraphs pitch values. People read those values and automatically think their highest rated pitch value is their best pitch, when in actuality its the furthest thing from the truth.

 

Tim Lincecum is a good example, last I checked his highest rated pitch was his change-up...why? Because he records outs with that pitch, strikeouts, ground outs, whatever.

 

However what fangraphs doesn't take into consideration is that they don't reward his fastball enough that helps set up that change-up. Without that fastball the change-up is not nearly as effective, and it's value is not nearly as high. It just goes back to the age old rule of thumb, the best pitch is a well located fastball, regardless of what these "ratings" suggest.

 

The bottom line is that sabermetrics don't always translate and carry over to reality, and specifically in this instance they're just hypothetical explanations on what could have been. All of them have their flaws, UZR, WAR, etc. and shouldn't always be "the final answer."

 

After speaking with old time scouts and "stat heads" both sides seem to think their way is the concrete way to evaluate talent, when the fact of the matter is the best way to do this is to have a good balance of both.

 

Sorry I got carried away...back to Thome.

 

Not having Jim Thome didn't cost us the division, but it had a hand in it. To me we are six back because we did not execute and we did not beat the teams in our own division.

 

 

 

[Balta1701]

The Twins have been the same team they have been for the past decade, regardless of who is on that roster they play the game the right way. They execute in critical situations, they do the little things like driving a man in on 3rd with less than 2 outs. (Something we have really struggled with in the past and present.) They get bunts down, they don't run themselves out of innings, and most importantly each and every hitter has a plan when they step up to the plate. They also play sound defense, they don't beat themselves. You have to beat them.

Rather than go after the full post...I'm taking the easiest bit of data to check.

 

Batting average and OPS with RISP and 2 outs in 2010:

 

Texas: .295/.818.

Chicago Sox: .279/.808.

Minnesota Twins: .273/.799.

 

The White Sox did a fine job with 2 outs and RISP this year. Better than the Twins so far. Certainly not substantially worse.

 

The White Sox, however, have fewer chances with 2 outs and RISP than the Twins. That could, of course, relate to the fact that the twins have a .344 team OBP, while the White Sox have a .332 team OBP. The Twins also have a higher OBP with 2 outs and RISP. Therefore...a much more relevant stat is overall the fact that the Twins simply put more guys on base than the White Sox.

 

Worth noting as well is that the White Sox are #2 in the AL in Sacrifice bunts (behind Texas) while the Twins are #8 and well into the back part of the league. Getting the bunt down has less to do with this than any of your other points.

 

Your point on them not running themselves out of innings though...H. Christ I just looked at this. The White Sox have 71 caught stealings on the year. The Twins have 26. Something tells me that's a big part of the reason why the Twins have more runs with 2 outs than us.

[CWSOX45]

Rather than go after the full post...I'm taking the easiest bit of data to check.

 

Batting average and OPS with RISP and 2 outs in 2010:

 

Texas: .295/.818.

Chicago Sox: .279/.808.

Minnesota Twins: .273/.799.

 

The White Sox did a fine job with 2 outs and RISP this year. Better than the Twins so far. Certainly not substantially worse.

 

The White Sox, however, have fewer chances with 2 outs and RISP than the Twins. That could, of course, relate to the fact that the twins have a .344 team OBP, while the White Sox have a .332 team OBP. The Twins also have a higher OBP with 2 outs and RISP. Therefore...a much more relevant stat is overall the fact that the Twins simply put more guys on base than the White Sox.

 

Worth noting as well is that the White Sox are #2 in the AL in Sacrifice bunts (behind Texas) while the Twins are #8 and well into the back part of the league. Getting the bunt down has less to do with this than any of your other points.

 

Your point on them not running themselves out of innings though...H. Christ I just looked at this. The White Sox have 71 caught stealings on the year. The Twins have 26. Something tells me that's a big part of the reason why the Twins have more runs with 2 outs than us.

 

Thanks for looking those numbers up. The CS is very alarming.

 

Then there is this:

 

Sox vs AL Central: 30-33

Twins vs AL Central: 40-20.

Edited September 13, 2010 by CWSOX45

[fathom]

So a reason the Sox didn't win the AL Central is because we struggled against our own division? Well, I looked at Thome's numbers vs AL Central this season, and they were:

 

Batting average: .314

On-base percentage: .454

Slugging: .727

 

So would that 1.181 OPS have had anything to do with the Twins success vs AL Central?

[chw42]

Jesus christ, enough with the Wins Above Replacement jargon. We can sit here and beat this to death all day. I'm not saying that WAR isn't a good metric to measure overall talent of a player, but it has its flaws, and simply saying that adding Jim Thome to our roster would equate in 3 plus wins and taking away 3 wins from the Twins is a ridiculous hypothetical assumption. Especially when all the Twins do is produce what Fangraphs would define as "Replacement Level Players." I swear to god we've been beat by career AAA, and AAAA+ Twins players for the last 10+ years.

 

The Twins have been the same team they have been for the past decade, regardless of who is on that roster they play the game the right way. They execute in critical situations, they do the little things like driving a man in on 3rd with less than 2 outs. (Something we have really struggled with in the past and present.) They get bunts down, they don't run themselves out of innings, and most importantly each and every hitter has a plan when they step up to the plate. They also play sound defense, they don't beat themselves. You have to beat them.

 

You want to know why the Sox aren't in first this year and the Twins are? Look at the god d**mn records against Central Division foes. The Twins beat Central Division teams, they beat them early, they beat them late, and they beat them often. We didn't, and we still don't as recently as last week.

 

Pinning this all on not bringing back Thome is ridiculous. There are so many variables that come into effect with this. We didn't start playing baseball until June, the bullpen was atrocious in the month of August, and most importantly the major difference between us and the Twins is simple baseball execution.

 

The bottom line is statistics have their spot in the game, but it's insane to simply just suggest that adding one player immediately adds 3 plus wins to our team. If we had kept Thome, would we have been better on paper? Yes absolutely, but does Jim put up the exact pace of production that he has with the Twins? Who knows....my gut feeling tells me no, but at the same time he would easily would have surpassed Kotsay's production, there's no doubt about that.

 

Again let me just reiterate that I like WAR, wOBA, and other statistics to measure performance, but using WAR in an instance like this just doesn't work for me. It's the same thing with Fangraphs pitch values. People read those values and automatically think their highest rated pitch value is their best pitch, when in actuality its the furthest thing from the truth.

 

Tim Lincecum is a good example, last I checked his highest rated pitch was his change-up...why? Because he records outs with that pitch, strikeouts, ground outs, whatever.

 

However what fangraphs doesn't take into consideration is that they don't reward his fastball enough that helps set up that change-up. Without that fastball the change-up is not nearly as effective, and it's value is not nearly as high. It just goes back to the age old rule of thumb, the best pitch is a well located fastball, regardless of what these "ratings" suggest.

 

The bottom line is that sabermetrics don't always translate and carry over to reality, and specifically in this instance they're just hypothetical explanations on what could have been. All of them have their flaws, UZR, WAR, etc. and shouldn't always be "the final answer."

 

After speaking with old time scouts and "stat heads" both sides seem to think their way is the concrete way to evaluate talent, when the fact of the matter is the best way to do this is to have a good balance of both.

 

Sorry I got carried away...back to Thome.

 

Not having Jim Thome didn't cost us the division, but it had a hand in it. To me we are six back because we did not execute and we did not beat the teams in our own division.

 

That isn't true at all...

 

Twins team WAR since 2002

2002: 26.9 (4th in AL, Sox were 6th)

2003: 24.7 (3rd in AL, Sox were 4th)

2004: 18.4 (10th in AL, Sox were 4th)

2005: 15.2 (12th in AL, Sox were 10th)

2006: 23.8 (3rd in AL, Sox were 7th)

2007: 14.2 (11th in AL, Sox were last)

2008: 18.5 (9th in AL, Sox were 8th)

2009: 22.4 (5th in AL, Sox were 13th)

2010: 28.6 (2nd in AL, Sox are 9th)

 

Outside of 2004 and 2005, the Twins had more productive players in every single season. WAR doesn't hate the Twins and their so said "replacement level players". They might have produced only one good year and fell out of oblivion (Jason Tyner and Lew Ford?), but when they did play, they hurt everybody, not just the White Sox.

Edited September 13, 2010 by chw42

[greg775]

The Sox obviously thought they were going to win with pitching (not too big an assumption despite the fact the bullpen sucked in 2009) but not defense (Teahen at third, nobody knew Lexi would be this improved at short, Juan was known for a weak arm, CQ somewhat statuesque in right, AJ not getting any younger throwing people out) and speed was supposed to be a strength like the pitching.

 

I still think you can win with pitching and defense, even in the AL, but our pitching wasn't good enough again and our defense sucked early on, thought it turned out to be very solid up the middle with Rios, Becks and Lexi and AJ having a better year throwing wise.

 

For us to win with this formula, the starting staff is going to have to DOMINATE and not be graded about a Bminus or B at the best, which is what they were this year. And the bullpen was a C at best. Not good enough without huge pop in the lineup.

 

As far as Thome, I still consider the argument moot had we acquired a lefty bat like Dunn at the break which I guess he was impossible to get.

 

I'd prefer to go back to the station to station thing next year but it is still going to all boil down to our pitching and defense.

Edited September 13, 2010 by greg775

[gatnom]

The bottom line is that sabermetrics don't always translate and carry over to reality, and specifically in this instance they're just hypothetical explanations on what could have been. All of them have their flaws, UZR, WAR, etc. and shouldn't always be "the final answer."

 

All you're arguing here is that WAR wouldn't exactly represent Thome's value to the Sox, which could mean that Thome himself could be worth EITHER more or less than what the numbers suggest. You don't have to trust the numbers, but if you factor in the addition by subtraction from the Twins, I can see this division being close enough that not signing him would actually be the difference between winning and not winning the division. Then you would see the inevitable responses about how the team sucked to start out and how X/Y/Z let us down, and all of them are valid reasons for why the Sox didn't end up winning the division. However, you can't control who is going to have a down year or who will get injured like you can control adequately filling positions on your roster. Thome was willing to play for less than Mark Kotsay, and they took a large risk (potentially having the worst every day player at a position) for a small reward (looking smart for not wasting a whole $1 million on a player who finally declined too far).

[lostfan]

And that's not even adding the fact that Kotsay has been -.7 WAR. Thome instead of Kotsay is roughly equal to 4 wins to us.

The last time I checked it Thome's WAR was actually more than Kotsay, Jones, Pierre, and Teahen COMBINED.

[CWSOX45]

That isn't true at all...

 

Twins team WAR since 2002

2002: 26.9 (4th in AL, Sox were 6th)

2003: 24.7 (3rd in AL, Sox were 4th)

2004: 18.4 (10th in AL, Sox were 4th)

2005: 15.2 (12th in AL, Sox were 10th)

2006: 23.8 (3rd in AL, Sox were 7th)

2007: 14.2 (11th in AL, Sox were last)

2008: 18.5 (9th in AL, Sox were 8th)

2009: 22.4 (5th in AL, Sox were 13th)

2010: 28.6 (2nd in AL, Sox are 9th)

 

Outside of 2004 and 2005, the Twins had more productive players in every single season. WAR doesn't hate the Twins and their so said "replacement level players". They might have produced only one good year and fell out of oblivion (Jason Tyner and Lew Ford?), but when they did play, they hurt everybody, not just the White Sox.

 

I never said WAR hated the Twins. I said they have "replacement players" AAA or 4A players that are called up and take the place of recent departures, and contribute immediately at the big league level, and most of them aren't considered replacement players because they contribute far beyond what they are expected to. Isn't that the definition Fangraphs uses as a "replacement player" a career AAA or 4A player?

 

Just take a look at some of these names:

 

2002: Bobby Kielty: 2.5, Dustan Mohr: 2.0,

 

2003: Matthew LeCroy: 1.3, Mike Ryan 1.0,

 

2004: Lew Ford 3.7

 

2005: Nick Punto: 3.1, Jason Tyner 1.3

 

2008: Brendan Harris 1.2

 

 

I don't really understand where you disagree with, because I never stated that Fangraphs hated the Twins. I commend the Twins as they do a good job of getting production from "replacement players." They do it all the time, and that's what's so frustrating because we can't. What's even more depressing, is that we will most likely continue to see this continue as well.

 

[CaliSoxFanViaSWside]

I'll never get tired of this Thome argument. Plenty of you make excellent points . I also reread a lot of the spring training thread about bringing him back and so many wanted him back. I know why everyone is frustrated because bringing him back was the easiest ,most cost effective move the Sox could have made. The guy is all class and a future HOF and used properly ,still a force to be reckoned with.

 

It was Ozzie's call no doubt and KW has to regret giving in to him. So many things could have gone differently with Thome. Maybe with him the Sox don't get off to that terrible start. Maybe the pitchers felt like they had to carry the team and pitched poorly because of that. Maybe a lot of the hitters felt the pressure to make up for the loss of Thome. Maybe with him they hit better early in the season when they all sucked.

 

Maybe with him the Sox don't trade Hudson for Jackson or sign Manny providing relief to a burgeoning payroll that will affect a lot of what goes down in the off season .

 

Maybe without him the Twins are worse. Maybe Delmon Young doesn't have a career year or Danny Valencia doesn't play out of his mind. One thing affects so many other things . We won't ever know how it would have turned out. Would Ozzie's pride at having Thome back made him a better or worse manager ? Pure DH's apparently piss him off. Makes him feel like he's not managing or in control of the game. Apparently all the outs on the bases and all that bunting is his way of saying I'll do things my way and screw all of you who think we can't play small ball and succeed in a ballpark built for the exact opposite.

 

What's really transparent is Ozzie is happiest having guy's who play the game the way he did. Scrappers ,grinders small-ballers . He really belongs in the NL .It's a shame he can't or isn't happy with a team who can out slug the other team. The best managers will do what they have to do to make the best use of the players they have.

 

The Go Go Sox teams are long gone and so is the cavernous Old Comiskey. Not the Old Comiskey most of you remember but the one before there was a bullpen in CF . The one that was like 440 to dead center. That dinosaur is dead and it about time Ozzie the dinosaur (with apologies to Carl Everett) joins the rest of his kind in the La Brea tar pits.

[gatnom]

I never said Jim Thome's season had NO EFFECT on the Minnesota Twins' success this season. You people make it sound like Jim Thome is the only person that plays for the Minnesota Twins. You're right, Thome is the Twins pulse when it comes to power, but he's not the ONLY reason for their success against Central Division foes.

 

In terms of offense, there are 5 other starting players that had a batting average above .300 against the AL Central, an OBP above .350, and three of those players had OPS above .800.

 

Again let me clarify, Jim Thome is a huge reason for their success, but it's not like the rest of the Twins have not been hitting.

 

Delmon Young: .300/.340/.450

Joe Mauer: .380/.430/.530

Orlando Hudson: .310/.320/.490

Danny Valencia: .340/.380/.470

Michael Cuddyer: .310/.360/.430

 

Believe me, if it were up to me I would have brought Jim Thome back. All I'm trying to say is that he's NOT the sole reason we are down 6 games in the division.

 

The bottom line is Thome or no Thome, the Twins are a better team than us. Even if WE had Jim Thome, I still think the Twins are the better team. It's just that simple.

 

I don't think anybody really thinks Thome is the only player on the Twins. Subtracting Thome from them and adding him to the Sox at worst puts us back in the race for this division instead of holding onto a thread of hope because we haven't been mathematically eliminated yet. As far as I can tell, that's all anybody is trying to say. Whether or not you agree with WAR exactly on the number of wins he would add/subtract is pretty much irrelevant because even a minor number (1-2 games for each team) puts us right back in the race, and if we're in the race, I don't see how you can say the Twins are definitely the better team. You can't just cherry-pick hitting stats against the division and say they are the better team. It's a lot more complicated than that.

 

With that being said, this is going to be my last post on Big Jim. I wouldn't be surprised if half my posts on this site were about him, and this horse is obviously well past beaten to death.

 

 

[chw42]

I never said WAR hated the Twins. I said they have "replacement players" AAA or 4A players that are called up and take the place of recent departures, and contribute immediately at the big league level, and most of them aren't considered replacement players because they contribute far beyond what they are expected to. Isn't that the definition Fangraphs uses as a "replacement player" a career AAA or 4A player?

 

Just take a look at some of these names:

 

2002: Bobby Kielty: 2.5, Dustan Mohr: 2.0,

 

2003: Matthew LeCroy: 1.3, Mike Ryan 1.0,

 

2004: Lew Ford 3.7

 

2005: Nick Punto: 3.1, Jason Tyner 1.3

 

2008: Brendan Harris 1.2

 

 

I don't really understand where you disagree with, because I never stated that Fangraphs hated the Twins. I commend the Twins as they do a good job of getting production from "replacement players." They do it all the time, and that's what's so frustrating because we can't. What's even more depressing, is that we will most likely continue to see this continue as well.

 

Nick Punto's actually a pretty valuable little player, mostly due to his defense.

 

I know what you're saying and I even agreed with it to a degree, but in the grand scheme of things, I don't know what this has to do with Jim Thome and using WAR to add and subtract wins to a team.

 

Each WAR is 10 runs and that 10 runs has a meaning. If you were to subtract 10 runs from a team, their Pythagorean W-L goes down by 1 win. So it's not totally incorrect to say that Thome would add 3 wins to the Sox while subtracting 3 from the Twins.

 

Hell, he already killed us on a walk-off home run once and added in here and there in some other games. That doesn't mean he won those games by himself, but he sure had a huge impact in the Twins winning them.

 

[Mr. Wedmesday]

Ask not what Jim Thome has done for the Twins, but rather what the Twins have done for Jim Thome.

 

The reason Thome has been the "pulse' of the Twins' offense is that the the Twins offense affords Thome the kind of protection that allows him to maximize every at bat. He sees much less off speed and breaking stuff than he saw with our relatively weak, streaky hitters.

 

Thome is seeing far more fastballs this year because he's in the middle of a lineup that hits for power and average.

 

He drove half this board crazy last year because of SO and GIDB. He would have been no better than and probably worse than he was last year with us.

 

Our rotation and bullpen are better than the Twins, but we've lost a ton of 1-run games. Thome alone would not have solved that.

 

The big mistake was letting him sign within the division. Should simply have signed him and then traded out him out of the division.

 

The Twins were the perfect fit for him.

 

And I still don't get why Thome wanted to come back and play for a manager who, during the 2009 season, said with a straight face, "Mark Kotsay is my MVP"?

Edited September 14, 2010 by 11and1

[greg775]

If you guys ultimately forgive the Sox for the sin of not bringing Thome back, you should go to Soxfest this winter and just hammer Ozzie with Thome questions.

It might be cathartic.

[justBLAZE]

I didn't want Thome back at the beginning of the offseason and many of us here didn't. I remember heck of lot posts calling for Kenny to get us a DH as no one wanted to go into the season with Mark Kotsay being the team's DH, after Matsui and Vlad signed with Angels and Rangers respectively and there was no other real options left Jim Thome was still available I was praying we get him back.

 

Jim Thome did not cost us the division, however the rotating DH fiasco with Kotsay being a regular player might have, if we had Vlad hitting for us like he is carrying the Rangers for the last month, no one would be crying for Jimmy right now. Kenny and Ozzie are at fault for not bringing providing this team with a real DH until September which hopefully wasn't too little too late.

[caulfield12]

Look at everything that went "wrong" with the Twins and their solutions....

 

Morneau out=Thome in

 

Punto/Harris injured or ineffective=Danny Valencia and Alexi Casilla are there to save the day

 

Blackburn/Baker/Slowey go into a funk=Brian Duensing pitches like an All-Star, AAA castoffs/DFA's throw admirably and Blackburn/Slowey/Baker all return to normal

 

Span, Cuddyer and Kubel all disappoint (you could also include Mauer and Morneau)=Delmon Young, Thome and Valencia help pick up the slack

 

Let's not forget the veteran, stabilizing influence of Hudson and Hardy up the middle. Nobody talks about either of those guys, but I'm pretty sure they still have under 20 errors combined up the middle

 

Nathan hurt=Rauch, Crain and Capps step up and hang in there and save MOST games, at one point a couple of weeks ago (and it has to still be true), the Twins had only lost 2 games all season they were leading after 7 innings

 

Both Liriano and Pavano pitch like All-Stars and certainly frontline starters...

Edited September 14, 2010 by caulfield12

[Balta1701]

Thome is seeing far more fastballs this year because he's in the middle of a lineup that hits for power and average.

Unfortunately for you...thanks to the availability of Pitch F/X data, this unsupported contention can now actually be checked, because PFX categorizes pitch types.

 

Last year, in 2009, Jim Thome Saw the 4 seam fastball 52% of the time.

 

This year, in 2010, Jim Thome has seen the 4 seam fastball 39.5% of the time.

 

In both cases we're talking about well over a thousand pitches, so this is a very statistically significant difference.

 

Jim Thome is seeing vastly fewer fastballs this year. Therefore, your contention that Thome is performing better because of the lineup around him causing him to see more fastballs is simply wrong.

[LittleHurt05]

I know what you're saying and I even agreed with it to a degree, but in the grand scheme of things, I don't know what this has to do with Jim Thome and using WAR to add and subtract wins to a team.

 

Each WAR is 10 runs and that 10 runs has a meaning. If you were to subtract 10 runs from a team, their Pythagorean W-L goes down by 1 win. So it's not totally incorrect to say that Thome would add 3 wins to the Sox while subtracting 3 from the Twins.

 

True, but you can't just assume that everyone else's stats on the team would stay the same. With Thome in the lineup, Konerko doesn't put up the exact same numbers, because the variables of the lineup change. Maybe he does better because he has more protection. Or maybe he is pitched around more often late in games, because the opposing manager knows they can bring in a lefty to face Thome. Maybe he has to play 1st base more and therefore wears out as the season goes on and doesn't hit as much. How do you know that Thome would hit as well with the Sox as he did with the Twins?

 

You also have to consider who would replace Thome in the Twins lineup. Of course that player wouldn't put up the same numbers as Jim, but he still could be worth at least 1 win, if not more, you just don't know that.

 

I'm not disagreeing that not bringing back Thome is a top factor in the Sox finishing in 2nd place. I just disagree that its as simple to say that -3 wins for the Twins, +3 wins for the Sox = 6 games, therefore if Thome switched teams they would be tied.

[Balta1701]

You also have to consider who would replace Thome in the Twins lineup. Of course that player wouldn't put up the same numbers as Jim, but he still could be worth at least 1 win, if not more, you just don't know that.

Hence the concept of "Wins above replacement" where a replacement player = the average production at that position for the league. It's therefore a 50/50 chance whether the Twins would get better or worse production if they just plugged anyone in at that position.

 

Hell, look how some of the AL contenders have struggled with their DH slot by just throwing anything and everything at it. The Rays and the White Sox are the examples there.

[Dick Allen]

I didn't want Thome back at the beginning of the offseason and many of us here didn't. I remember heck of lot posts calling for Kenny to get us a DH as no one wanted to go into the season with Mark Kotsay being the team's DH, after Matsui and Vlad signed with Angels and Rangers respectively and there was no other real options left Jim Thome was still available I was praying we get him back.

 

Jim Thome did not cost us the division, however the rotating DH fiasco with Kotsay being a regular player might have, if we had Vlad hitting for us like he is carrying the Rangers for the last month, no one would be crying for Jimmy right now. Kenny and Ozzie are at fault for not bringing providing this team with a real DH until September which hopefully wasn't too little too late.

 

Maybe Thome isn't going to cost the White Sox the playoffs, but its hard to see how he being a White Sox right now and not a Twin wouldn't enhance the White Sox chances.

 

 

Look at Vlad and Matsui's stats last year and this. Thome's were better. Vlad has an .851 OPS this year. Jim Thome had an .864 OPS with the Sox last year playing with a bad heel. Thome is playing for a fraction of what they are playing for this year

 

Thome was truly underrated and under appreciated during his time with the Sox. Its a shame a pretty significant part of the White Sox fanbase for some reason never embraced him and enjoyed what he was able to accomplish from the batter's box. For all the defending I see of guys like Manny Ramirez, giving him credit for others getting big hits, its almost sickening.

 

KW's quote about Manny the other day really struck me. He was asked about his hair and he said that guys with over 500 homers we will bend the team rules for a bit. I know a guy with over 500 homers that wouldn't think about doing anything outside the team rules.