Time To Change The Business Model

[jenksycat]

I liked this post. Unfortunately for so many teams, payroll's half of ours is just the way it is. That limits those teams in a huge way. Those type of teams have to continue to build through the farm in order for one day to be a competetive team. The Rays are a perfect example of one of these teams. Struggled for their first 15 years and eventually, the draft choices started to pan out. They built a good offense and pitching team. It is difficult for alot of these teams to build both. Let's look at the Orioles. They have been bad for the last 10 years. They haven't drafted well. The talent coming up through the farm, while highly hyped by guys like Steve Stone, just aren't good enough. That falls on the head of the GM, scouting department, etc.

 

The Sox are fortunate that they can afford a $100 million payroll. That can help cover up a deficient farm. Unfortunately, our GM has been bad the past few years overall. Bringing in Peavy, Rios, Teahen and then giving him an extension, Linebrink, Pierre just keeps adding to the payroll, but when most of these guys don't work out. Rios is the only one who really has been good and Pierre and Peavy average at best, it straps the organization. The only way to overcome bad high money deals is by eating the money and going with talented, cheap, young talent.

 

I really think JR needs to clean house and start fresh with a smart mind at GM and clean house on the field with management, Ozzie, Walker, Cora can all go. Hold on to Coop, he has some special talents. He can't fix them all, but he has proven to be very helpful. I would love to have a GM and Manager who see eye to eye in philosophy. KW and Oz never really have. Things hit the fan when KW let Oz determine if Thome could come back this year. Who is running the organization exactly? Shouldn't all personnel decisions be up to the GM?

 

I would love to get a young, smart, Harvard type guy in the mold of Epstein, Hoyer, Daniels. These guys are smart and make sound decisions. They take sabremetrics seriously and field a team to the best way one can. High OBP. High UZR ratings. Solid pitching. Farm systems that can plug guys in and still have a solid team.

 

Epstein's Red Sox are a great example of a GM who does things right. Look at all the injuries they had this season. Can you imagine that happening to us? They have been competetive all season even though they were without Pedroia,Youk, Ellsbury, Cameron, VMart and Beckett for parts of the season. They just gave their kids a chance and they knew they could perform. We would have been screwed. Can you imagine Danks2, De Aza, Retherford, Flowers all being able to step in and fill positions and still win at the MLB level this season? Never would have happened.

 

I appreciate what KW did for us in 2005. I actually like the guy and some of his ideas. He has always tried to build a solid SP staff and has been pretty successful with that. I just think we need a fresh person in the organization. Someone to fix and reshape this team in the minors as well as the majors. I know Reinsdorf will probably never do it, he is just too loyal, to a fault.

 

You realize the Red Sox have a limitless budget and were almost 30 million more than us this year, yes? And that the "genius" GM they have signed Lackey and Cameron this past offseason.

And the "genius" over at Tampa Bay had roughly 64 #1-3 draft picks.

 

I'm not calling them bad GM's, but all this bulls*** about how there is apparently a treasure trove of genius GM's out there better than KW is getting ridiculous. You have to take other factors into account, the Rays wouldn't be anywhere without sucking ass for a decade and hitting the jackpot on a couple of the dozen #1 picks they had.

 

KW has built some solid teams which underperformed, won more playoff games this year than most, and has a ring. Lets please not turn this into a Bears backup QB scenario.

 

[jenksycat]

Bah...these 8+ year contracts may be ridiculous...but like it or not, that's the going rate for a top, regular-MVP level player these days. That number isn't going down.

 

It will go down when all these guys hit 35+ and production falls off the map. It won't be overnight, but eventually owners aren't going to invest the GDP of a small country into a 28 year old eventual-dh.

Edited September 15, 2010 by Jenksy Cat

[Balta1701]

You realize the Red Sox have a limitless budget and were almost 30 million more than us this year, yes? And that the "genius" GM they have signed Lackey and Cameron this past offseason.

And the "genius" over at Tampa Bay had roughly 64 #1-3 draft picks.

I had to check on this post because $30 million sounded small. At least based on the numbers I can find...it's way, way too small. The Bosox are somewhere up over $160 million. We're down around $100 million (and it's worth remembering that we have good chunks of money coming from places like LAD to cover that). You've underestimated the strength of your own point.

[chetkincaid]

You realize the Red Sox have a limitless budget and were almost 30 million more than us this year, yes? And that the "genius" GM they have signed Lackey and Cameron this past offseason.

And the "genius" over at Tampa Bay had roughly 64 #1-3 draft picks.

 

I'm not calling them bad GM's, but all this bulls*** about how there is apparently a treasure trove of genius GM's out there better than KW is getting ridiculous. You have to take other factors into account, the Rays wouldn't be anywhere without sucking ass for a decade and hitting the jackpot on a couple of the dozen #1 picks they had.

 

KW has built some solid teams which underperformed, won more playoff games this year than most, and has a ring. Lets please not turn this into a Bears backup QB scenario.

 

Post of the freaking week right here...

[Cali]

You can't rebuild the roster without rebuilding the front office first, because can you imagine a season of the "kids can play" with Ozzie as manager? He's set all the kids back 5-10 years of development...

 

But the owner is too loyal and stubborn to change anything. Maybe, maybe KW will get the can this off-season (most likely not) but Ozzie is his boy, even though he should be the FIRST one to go.

 

As far as emulating the Twins is concerned, I wouldn't want to. I would be equally as frustrated to finish in second every season as I would be to make the playoffs every season and get bumped in the ALDS in 3-4 games.

[Balta1701]

As far as emulating the Twins is concerned, I wouldn't want to. I would be equally as frustrated to finish in second every season as I would be to make the playoffs every season and get bumped in the ALDS in 3-4 games.

So basically we want to be a mid-market payroll team with reasonable ticket prices that makes the playoffs every year and is nearly unstoppable once they get there every time, and we're going to call for management reorganizations until that happens?

[nitetrain8601]

Oh please. The sky is falling. I agree the Sox need to draft better and put better resources in Latin America. At the same time, we have, but haven't given them time to pan out yet other than Alexei. I think Viciedo very easily could turn into a Kendry Morales type hitter.

 

Honestly, it would be a super duper dark day if the Sox rolled out a starting lineup of:

 

C Flowers

1B Viciedo

2B Beckham

3B Morel

SS Ramirez

RF Rios?

CF Mitchell

LF - Danks

 

That's a pretty awful lineup. Seats would be completely empty, even for series against the Yankees. The team wouldn't recover and we would be strapped with a KC type payroll in a large market. That would be doom.

[caulfield12]

So basically we want to be a mid-market payroll team with reasonable ticket prices that makes the playoffs every year and is nearly unstoppable once they get there every time, and we're going to call for management reorganizations until that happens?

 

 

The closest models we have to follow, if you throw out the Twins...probably the Cardinals and Angels, in terms of the upper tier franchises.

 

The problem is that the Cardinals own the entire St. Louis market, and their fanbase might be the best (overall) in baseball.

 

So perhaps the Angels, because they were the "second tier" team in that market and have really battled the Dodgers (especially since the McCourt divorce fiasco) to a draw, almost.

 

Other teams that come to mind include the Braves, Mariners in the early 00's and Giants, although we're never going to consistently spend the money SF has under Magowan (examples like Zito and Rowand come to mind right away).

 

I think the St. Louis comparison is appropriate because they're now quite payroll conscious, especially since Jocketty left, but even before...they were in the process of operating more and more like a mid-market team economically while simultaneously being the home of the game's biggest superstar. I can't wait to see how things shake out with Rasmus, LaRussa and a new deal for Pujols.

 

 

[caulfield12]

Oh please. The sky is falling. I agree the Sox need to draft better and put better resources in Latin America. At the same time, we have, but haven't given them time to pan out yet other than Alexei. I think Viciedo very easily could turn into a Kendry Morales type hitter.

 

Honestly, it would be a super duper dark day if the Sox rolled out a starting lineup of:

 

C Flowers

1B Viciedo

2B Beckham

3B Morel

SS Ramirez

RF Rios?

CF Mitchell

LF - Danks

 

That's a pretty awful lineup. Seats would be completely empty, even for series against the Yankees. The team wouldn't recover and we would be strapped with a KC type payroll in a large market. That would be doom.

 

Now if you threw in a Carl Crawford here (unfortunately he will be out of our price range), Beltre at 3B (assuming he could repeat his two strong, and perhaps anomalous offensive years, one with LA and now with BOS), a productive Carlos Pena at 1B, that line-up becomes at least league-average if Mitchell becomes a star.

 

Of course, that's a big if. I feel pretty confident about Viciedo going forward, with Flowers as a huge question mark and Danks, I wouldn't even connect his name with a starting position. Morel might be a tweener, you'd really have to surround him with a lot of offensive pop at USCF, because he's not the kind of hitter who you could consistently expect to put up anything over a 750 or 775 OPS. That would be fine, if he fielded as well as many think he's capable of...

Edited September 15, 2010 by caulfield12

[BigSqwert]

KW has built some solid teams which underperformed, won more playoff games this year than most, and has a ring. Lets please not turn this into a Bears backup QB scenario.

 

Not sure what that means.

[caulfield12]

Not sure what that means.

 

 

It's basically saying we're better than the Twins despite their 6/9 ALCD run (very easily could have been 7/9 and 1/10 for the Sox) because our 12 wins from 2005 and 2008 more than cancel out their few playoff wins this decade.

 

In fact, the only team that the Twins beat was the A's in 2002...and the only team the A's beat was the Twins, likewise.

 

They were swept last year and have been blown out of every playoff appearance by the big-market teams.

[kitekrazy]

I vote for using the Yankees model. Just outspend everyone and guarantee a playoff berth every season.

 

Reinsdorf show flashes of doing that in the past but it never worked out for him.

 

[Balta1701]

A few points to make in reply. First, the Giants average payroll from 2006-2008 was $93 million. It was $103 million for the White Sox. The Braves..$92 million. The Angels...$114 million. We consistently spend more money than the Mariners, Braves, or Giants.

 

The only team that you mention that is close to the Sox in total payroll is St. Louis...and they've gotten by with some of the biggest bargains in the game for the last 5+ years. But...if they manage to resign Pujols...they're talking about a $10+ million boost in yearly salary, combined with potentially having guys like Wainright and Carpenter having their salaries go up as well (Carpenter has a $12 million 2012 option, Wainright's contract is backloaded and starts shooting up next year). St Louis though...has had plenty of stinkers when it comes to contracts (Mark Mulder is the first name that comes to mind).

 

When we start getting down to the numbers...in terms of cost per win, the Sox have been in the middle of the pack for the last decade...but the only team that has spent less per win than us and still won a world series is the Marlins (The epic outlier team). This is a good read in terms of placing the Sox management in terms of overall effectiveness.

[kitekrazy]

I'm with you, Chet.

 

Anyone who wants to watch a major-market MLB team that is going through a major rebuilding phase by focusing on youngsters (because they can't/won't spend money on free agents because the owner broke the bank acquiring the team) can see one right here in Chicago, eight miles north of The Cell. There are plenty of tickets available...

 

They did spend money and unfortunately they are stuck with bad contracts. Yet they need the balls to fire the GM who dug that hole.

Edited September 15, 2010 by kitekrazy

[Balta1701]

They did spend money and unfortunately they are stuck with bad contracts. Yet they need to balls to fire the GM who dug that hole.

You've got to remember there though...the GM did exactly what he was supposed to do at the time...his assignment was to make that team competitive for the playoffs so that it could be sold as a playoff-competitive team by the Tribune Company. He did his job for his employer.

[hogan873]

You realize the Red Sox have a limitless budget and were almost 30 million more than us this year, yes? And that the "genius" GM they have signed Lackey and Cameron this past offseason.

And the "genius" over at Tampa Bay had roughly 64 #1-3 draft picks.

 

I'm not calling them bad GM's, but all this bulls*** about how there is apparently a treasure trove of genius GM's out there better than KW is getting ridiculous. You have to take other factors into account, the Rays wouldn't be anywhere without sucking ass for a decade and hitting the jackpot on a couple of the dozen #1 picks they had.

 

KW has built some solid teams which underperformed, won more playoff games this year than most, and has a ring. Lets please not turn this into a Bears backup QB scenario.

I agree. Great post. KW has made some bad decisions, but he's also made some great moves. Your points regarding Boston and Tampa are solid. Up until maybe five years ago (correct me if I'm wrong there), you could hear a cricket chirp in that dome in St. Petersburg because of the lack of fans. That team was miserable for quite a while before they started playing good baseball...in part due to their great drafts.

[JPN366]

I think the gist of this thread is that the game has changed. Look all around baseball at the moment. At all the playoff teams or near playoff teams. Other than the Yankees, you see elite, homegrown, and more importantly, cheap and controlled talent up and down their rosters. The Rays, Rangers, Reds, Rockies head the list. And the Twins have obviously flourished at this for years. Yes, I know most of these teams sucked for years before they got to this point. But they're hear now. And it doesn't look like they're going anywhere anytime soon (especially the Rays, they're deeper than Oprah's asshole pitching wise, majors and minors). This is why guys like me, fathom, russ, I think Ace, ect, were so against the Jackson trade. It's not because we think Jackson is the second coming of Todd Ritchie. It's because it was a horrible business move. There was just no real logic behind it. Other than Cooper's insistence that he could "fix" him. But when you're already up against your financial threshold, and you already have glaring holes all over the place that need to be filled, you don't have that option. Somebody used the word "piecemeal" to describe the way the Sox run things. And that's a PERFECT way to describe it. I think that's what I mean when I say the '05 title was a fluke. Yes, we were the best team that year. But the way that team was put together was no formula for a sustained run, obviously. We added a lot of guys coming off down years or that nobody wanted and it magically came together for a year. And we've been doing that ever since with one division title to show for it the last 5 years. Unacceptable.

 

I guess I'm one of the few fans that would welcome a "rebuilding" period (i.e. a down year or two) if that ultimately meant we were building for a sustained run of success. Finishing 2nd/3rd every year is like making out with a relative. Your ass is sitting at home watching the playoffs just like the teams that lost 95-100 games. Except they at least get a top 5 pick to work with.

 

I wasn't thrilled with trading Hudson, but there was no point in expressing it, because everybody thought Dunn would be on his way to Chicago. Of course, I don't like seeing any prospect traded, especially someone like Hudson.

Edited September 15, 2010 by JPN366

[Balta1701]

I wasn't thrilled with trading Hudson, but there was no point in expressing it, because everybody thought Dunn would be on his way to Chicago.

Really? I sure didn't think that Dunn was on his way to Chicago.

[hogan873]

Really? I sure didn't think that Dunn was on his way to Chicago.

I thought for about 10 minutes he was. But once the trade was made official I began to understand that was it.

[kitekrazy]

You've got to remember there though...the GM did exactly what he was supposed to do at the time...his assignment was to make that team competitive for the playoffs so that it could be sold as a playoff-competitive team by the Tribune Company. He did his job for his employer.

 

and he was still bad at it....

[LittleHurt05]

and he was still bad at it....

 

How so? They made the playoffs in 07 and 08, and the whole sale process went down in 09. Thats exactly what they wanted him to do. They weren't concerned about the future contracts, so Hendry didn't worry about them either.

[nitetrain8601]

A few points to make in reply. First, the Giants average payroll from 2006-2008 was $93 million. It was $103 million for the White Sox. The Braves..$92 million. The Angels...$114 million. We consistently spend more money than the Mariners, Braves, or Giants.

 

The only team that you mention that is close to the Sox in total payroll is St. Louis...and they've gotten by with some of the biggest bargains in the game for the last 5+ years. But...if they manage to resign Pujols...they're talking about a $10+ million boost in yearly salary, combined with potentially having guys like Wainright and Carpenter having their salaries go up as well (Carpenter has a $12 million 2012 option, Wainright's contract is backloaded and starts shooting up next year). St Louis though...has had plenty of stinkers when it comes to contracts (Mark Mulder is the first name that comes to mind).

 

When we start getting down to the numbers...in terms of cost per win, the Sox have been in the middle of the pack for the last decade...but the only team that has spent less per win than us and still won a world series is the Marlins (The epic outlier team). This is a good read in terms of placing the Sox management in terms of overall effectiveness.

 

Keep in mind though, the Cardinals play in a hell of a lot easier division than the White Sox almost every year. I'm a Cincy Reds fan(My favorite NL team, and yes, because of Griffey), but I know they don't have it to make it to the World Series. In a good division, they're a 3rd place team. When you get to face the Brewers and Pirates 35 times a year, it's not hard to win the division. The NL as a whole is alot easier. Sure, there are great teams there, but only about 2. From there, it goes downhill really fast.

 

The Sox have a much harder road. They're not the Orioles, but overall, their schedule is a ton harder. Take away my DH and put the Sox in the NL, I guarantee they win any division but the NL East in which they'd have a great shot.

[kwolf68]

I agree. Great post. KW has made some bad decisions, but he's also made some great moves.

 

Ken Williams hasn't made a 'great move' in 5+ years (save possibly Thornton). Before that he made some amazing moves and it's why the Sox won it all in 2005.

 

 

 

 

 

 

[BigSqwert]

Ken Williams hasn't made a 'great move' in 5+ years (save possibly Thornton). Before that he made some amazing moves and it's why the Sox won it all in 2005.

What about acquiring Danks and Floyd?

[nitetrain8601]

What about acquiring Danks and Floyd?

 

No wayyyyyy. We gave up the incomparable Brandon McCarthy and hard as heck to duplicate Freddy Garcia!

 

Honestly, all these people keep saying we can't keep draining our minor leagues of talent to plug up holes, but when has it bit us in the butt?! Even the greatest pieces like Gio Gonzalez aren't near all-star level. And trust me, I was one of the biggest Gio fans ever.

 

Chris Young will drive you into tantrums if Pierre upsets you.