Time To Change The Business Model

[hitlesswonder]

The Sox have done better on that front lately, although the 2010 haul was a bit of a disappointment. If you look at a team like Boston, they rarely have high draft position, but they manage to build a solid farm because they are always willing to pay for the right player. The Sox MO for the last decade has been mid-to-low draft placement but no money for anyone. You can't build a solid farm without spending the cash, and that has always been a weakness of the current regime.

 

That's compounded by not having any significant presence in Latin America. The Sox attempt at increasing their signings in that region ended with the Wilder fiasco.

[kjshoe04]

Pretty sure the Tigers won't be spending.

[Jordan4life_2007]

He can't play the field. So he's a DH and his OBP is going to be bad. Is Jeff Francouer an average major league player at DH? Not in my opinion.

 

Average major league players are actually valuable players, so I'm not saying Viciedo is never going to be more than replacement level, or won't play in the bigs for a few years. I am saying that I expect him to be about as valuable as a Francouer that can't field.

 

I'd be happy to be proven wrong, and maybe someone that has access to better minor league/scouting info can post and correct me if I'm wrong. But I don't think Dayan is in anyone's top 100 prospect list.

 

I don't think he can stick at third. 1B is an option. Yeah, DH would definitely be disappointing. And he'll have to learn to take a walk every now and then. But the offensive potential is legitimate.

[daggins]

Pretty sure the Tigers won't be spending.

 

So you don't think the team with one of the richest owners, who has spent loads of cash in the last half of the decade, will spend money on his team that has a top 5 payroll, loads of newly available space and lots of holes to fill?

[daggins]

I don't think he can stick at third. 1B is an option. Yeah, DH would definitely be disappointing. And he'll have to learn to take a walk every now and then. But the offensive potential is legitimate.

 

Right now Viciedo has contact and power but no patience or defensive position. He has a long way to go before he is a productive, every day MLB player.

[daggins]

The Tigers are going to get at least one of Lee, Werth, Crawford, and Dunn.

[SoxAce]

Right now Viciedo has contact and power but no patience or defensive position. He has a long way to go before he is a productive, every day MLB player.

 

Never thought a 21 year old kid would get this much hate.

[daggins]

He has time on his side. I think he certainly CAN be a very good hitter, although I doubt he is ever much of a fielder. Counting on him in 2011 is probably a bit hasty though.

[Jordan4life_2007]

I think the gist of this thread is that the game has changed. Look all around baseball at the moment. At all the playoff teams or near playoff teams. Other than the Yankees, you see elite, homegrown, and more importantly, cheap and controlled talent up and down their rosters. The Rays, Rangers, Reds, Rockies head the list. And the Twins have obviously flourished at this for years. Yes, I know most of these teams sucked for years before they got to this point. But they're hear now. And it doesn't look like they're going anywhere anytime soon (especially the Rays, they're deeper than Oprah's asshole pitching wise, majors and minors). This is why guys like me, fathom, russ, I think Ace, ect, were so against the Jackson trade. It's not because we think Jackson is the second coming of Todd Ritchie. It's because it was a horrible business move. There was just no real logic behind it. Other than Cooper's insistence that he could "fix" him. But when you're already up against your financial threshold, and you already have glaring holes all over the place that need to be filled, you don't have that option. Somebody used the word "piecemeal" to describe the way the Sox run things. And that's a PERFECT way to describe it. I think that's what I mean when I say the '05 title was a fluke. Yes, we were the best team that year. But the way that team was put together was no formula for a sustained run, obviously. We added a lot of guys coming off down years or that nobody wanted and it magically came together for a year. And we've been doing that ever since with one division title to show for it the last 5 years. Unacceptable.

 

I guess I'm one of the few fans that would welcome a "rebuilding" period (i.e. a down year or two) if that ultimately meant we were building for a sustained run of success. Finishing 2nd/3rd every year is like making out with a relative. Your ass is sitting at home watching the playoffs just like the teams that lost 95-100 games. Except they at least get a top 5 pick to work with.

[greg775]

I guess I'm one of the few fans that would welcome a "rebuilding" period (i.e. a down year or two) if that ultimately meant we were building for a sustained run of success

 

Yeah but there are no guarantees.

Royals, Pirates, O's, Indians, haven't they all been trying to rebuild that way?

 

As painful as this season has been, we have what most baseball people think is potentially a great staff.

We have to keep that staff intact and tinker some more and make some big time changes with the everyday lineup.

 

[Jordan4life_2007]

Yeah but there are no guarantees.

Royals, Pirates, O's, Indians, haven't they all been trying to rebuild that way?

 

As painful as this season has been, we have what most baseball people think is potentially a great staff.

We have to keep that staff intact and tinker some more and make some big time changes with the everyday lineup.

 

You're on a roll tonight, greg. And you're right. There is no guarantee. But 8 missed Octobers in 10 years proves the way we've been doing things doesn't work, either. You named those teams. But I counter with the Reds, Rockies, Giants, Rays and Rangers. And it's not like we have to start right at the bottom. We've got some legitimate pieces. And we can spend more money than any of those other teams you named.

[chisoxt]

I think the gist of this thread is that the game has changed. Look all around baseball at the moment. At all the playoff teams or near playoff teams. Other than the Yankees, you see elite, homegrown, and more importantly, cheap and controlled talent up and down their rosters. The Rays, Rangers, Reds, Rockies head the list. And the Twins have obviously flourished at this for years. Yes, I know most of these teams sucked for years before they got to this point. But they're hear now. And it doesn't look like they're going anywhere anytime soon (especially the Rays, they're deeper than Oprah's asshole pitching wise, majors and minors). This is why guys like me, fathom, russ, I think Ace, ect, were so against the Jackson trade. It's not because we think Jackson is the second coming of Todd Ritchie. It's because it was a horrible business move. There was just no real logic behind it. Other than Cooper's insistence that he could "fix" him. But when you're already up against your financial threshold, and you already have glaring holes all over the place that need to be filled, you don't have that option. Somebody used the word "piecemeal" to describe the way the Sox run things. And that's a PERFECT way to describe it. I think that's what I mean when I say the '05 title was a fluke. Yes, we were the best team that year. But the way that team was put together was no formula for a sustained run, obviously. We added a lot of guys coming off down years or that nobody wanted and it magically came together for a year. And we've been doing that ever since with one division title to show for it the last 5 years. Unacceptable.

 

I guess I'm one of the few fans that would welcome a "rebuilding" period (i.e. a down year or two) if that ultimately meant we were building for a sustained run of success. Finishing 2nd/3rd every year is like making out with a relative. Your ass is sitting at home watching the playoffs just like the teams that lost 95-100 games. Except they at least get a top 5 pick to work with.

This is an absolutely awesome post and quite frankly, the one that makes the most sense.

 

The meatheads (fans and media alike) love Kenny when he makes these outrageously bold moves by morgaging our future for quick-fix verterans. Truth be told, the 2005 team was put together with many low risk high reward smaller deals.

 

Fans hate teams that are rebuildibng, but Kenny has screwed this organization up so badly that at this point, we may have no other choice. It will be a miracle if we don't lose 90 games either next year or in 2012, based on the players we will lose to free agency and the very poor shape oiur farm system is in. So if you lose 90 games with a rebuilding team or 90 games with one of KW's half assed roster hybrids (with a $90-100 million payroll), what's the diffference? Do you think that fans will want to see either team?

 

 

[chisoxt]

As painful as this season has been, we have what most baseball people think is potentially a great staff.

We have to keep that staff intact and tinker some more and make some big time changes with the everyday lineup.

The problem is, the money we are pissing away to Peavy, Linebrink and Teahen preclude the team from making 'the big time moves' of which you speak. Just resigning Paulie would IMO be a bigtime move and only one that gets you back to some of what you had this year.

[soxrwhite]

This is a tough time to do a fair analysis. This team will win 90 or more games. It would probably win about have the mlb divisions. It is eay at this point to just want to throw the whole thing away and start over, but there many good players here to stay with. Piching,pitching and more pitching. Floyd,Danks, Beurhle,Jackson? Not as great as most people seem to think.

[Balta1701]

You're on a roll tonight, greg. And you're right. There is no guarantee. But 8 missed Octobers in 10 years proves the way we've been doing things doesn't work, either. You named those teams. But I counter with the Reds, Rockies, Giants, Rays and Rangers. And it's not like we have to start right at the bottom. We've got some legitimate pieces. And we can spend more money than any of those other teams you named.

By my count...there are 30 baseball teams right now, am I right? 8 teams make the playoffs each year. Therefore, every year, you have approximately a 1/4 shot at making the playoffs and a 1/30 shot in winning the world series...if everything was equal (it's not, but for the sake of argument let's assume that it is). Therefore...simply by probability alone...every 10 years, an average team should make the playoffs 3 times and win the world series 1/3 of a time.

 

Now...take a moment and realize that the Sox are in the same league as the Yankees...who it is safe to say will make the playoffs almost every year...and that distorts the probability somewhat. The sox would then have a 3/13 shot of making the playoffs in a given year. Therefore...over a 13 year period assuming the Yankees exist...an average team should make the playoffs 3 times, and win the W.S. maybe 1/4 of the time.

[Balta1701]

The problem is, the money we are pissing away to Peavy, Linebrink and Teahen preclude the team from making 'the big time moves' of which you speak. Just resigning Paulie would IMO be a bigtime move and only one that gets you back to some of what you had this year.

I'd say a bigger part of the problem is that sometimes you make a big time move for a guy who won the Cy Young award 2 years before you traded for him, but a few freak injuries happen and he winds up on your list.

[The Critic]

I think the gist of this thread is that the game has changed. Look all around baseball at the moment. At all the playoff teams or near playoff teams. Other than the Yankees, you see elite, homegrown, and more importantly, cheap and controlled talent up and down their rosters. The Rays, Rangers, Reds, Rockies head the list. And the Twins have obviously flourished at this for years. Yes, I know most of these teams sucked for years before they got to this point. But they're hear now. And it doesn't look like they're going anywhere anytime soon (especially the Rays, they're deeper than Oprah's asshole pitching wise, majors and minors). This is why guys like me, fathom, russ, I think Ace, ect, were so against the Jackson trade. It's not because we think Jackson is the second coming of Todd Ritchie. It's because it was a horrible business move. There was just no real logic behind it. Other than Cooper's insistence that he could "fix" him. But when you're already up against your financial threshold, and you already have glaring holes all over the place that need to be filled, you don't have that option. Somebody used the word "piecemeal" to describe the way the Sox run things. And that's a PERFECT way to describe it. I think that's what I mean when I say the '05 title was a fluke. Yes, we were the best team that year. But the way that team was put together was no formula for a sustained run, obviously. We added a lot of guys coming off down years or that nobody wanted and it magically came together for a year. And we've been doing that ever since with one division title to show for it the last 5 years. Unacceptable.

 

I guess I'm one of the few fans that would welcome a "rebuilding" period (i.e. a down year or two) if that ultimately meant we were building for a sustained run of success. Finishing 2nd/3rd every year is like making out with a relative. Your ass is sitting at home watching the playoffs just like the teams that lost 95-100 games. Except they at least get a top 5 pick to work with.

 

If you're making out with your relatives, you're in last place.

 

[chetkincaid]

I don't know about anyone else, but I really don't wanna go through years of being really bad with no guarantee that we'll be good afterwards. I HATE seasons when the White Sox suck. I hardly even remember the 2007 season when the Sox were bad because it was that hard to pay attention. And I can't be the only one who feels this way. Remember those games in Cleveland last week? You know... when there seemed to be about 3000 fans there? That is what you'll have on the Southside if you trot out a young team in rebuilding mode that projects to win only 60 games.

 

In Kenny I trust, and I trust that he will not let it happen. Sure, this season sucks at the end, but at least it provided SOME excitement. Do you guys really want to be the Indians?

[elgonzo4sox]

You're on a roll tonight, greg. And you're right. There is no guarantee. But 8 missed Octobers in 10 years proves the way we've been doing things doesn't work, either. You named those teams. But I counter with the Reds, Rockies, Giants, Rays and Rangers. And it's not like we have to start right at the bottom. We've got some legitimate pieces. And we can spend more money than any of those other teams you named.

 

 

The Cincinnati Reds last went to the playoffs in 1995.

 

The Tampa Bay Rays finished dead last in the AL East for 9 of their first 10 years before starting their run of what will be three consecutive years in the playoffs.

 

The San Francisco Giants have never won a World Series since they became the San Francisco Giants in 1958.

 

The Texas Rangers last won the AL West (which only has 3 other teams, making it the easiest division to win) in 1999.

 

I wouldn't hold these franchises up as models of success for the Sox to emulate.

 

 

[elgonzo4sox]

The Cincinnati Reds last went to the playoffs in 1995.

 

The Tampa Bay Rays finished dead last in the AL East for 9 of their first 10 years before starting their run of what will be three consecutive years in the playoffs.

 

The San Francisco Giants have never won a World Series since they became the San Francisco Giants in 1958.

 

The Texas Rangers last won the AL West (which only has 3 other teams, making it the easiest division to win) in 1999.

 

I wouldn't hold these franchises up as models of success for the Sox to emulate.

 

I realized I made a mistake - the Rays didn't make the playoffs in 2009, so it will only be 2 of the last 3 (actually, the last 13) years in the playoffs for them.

[elgonzo4sox]

I don't know about anyone else, but I really don't wanna go through years of being really bad with no guarantee that we'll be good afterwards. I HATE seasons when the White Sox suck. I hardly even remember the 2007 season when the Sox were bad because it was that hard to pay attention. And I can't be the only one who feels this way. Remember those games in Cleveland last week? You know... when there seemed to be about 3000 fans there? That is what you'll have on the Southside if you trot out a young team in rebuilding mode that projects to win only 60 games.

 

In Kenny I trust, and I trust that he will not let it happen. Sure, this season sucks at the end, but at least it provided SOME excitement. Do you guys really want to be the Indians?

 

I'm with you, Chet.

 

Anyone who wants to watch a major-market MLB team that is going through a major rebuilding phase by focusing on youngsters (because they can't/won't spend money on free agents because the owner broke the bank acquiring the team) can see one right here in Chicago, eight miles north of The Cell. There are plenty of tickets available...

Edited September 15, 2010 by elgonzo4sox

[dmbjeff]

By my count...there are 30 baseball teams right now, am I right? 8 teams make the playoffs each year. Therefore, every year, you have approximately a 1/4 shot at making the playoffs and a 1/30 shot in winning the world series...if everything was equal (it's not, but for the sake of argument let's assume that it is). Therefore...simply by probability alone...every 10 years, an average team should make the playoffs 3 times and win the world series 1/3 of a time.

 

Now...take a moment and realize that the Sox are in the same league as the Yankees...who it is safe to say will make the playoffs almost every year...and that distorts the probability somewhat. The sox would then have a 3/13 shot of making the playoffs in a given year. Therefore...over a 13 year period assuming the Yankees exist...an average team should make the playoffs 3 times, and win the W.S. maybe 1/4 of the time.

 

I liked this post. Unfortunately for so many teams, payroll's half of ours is just the way it is. That limits those teams in a huge way. Those type of teams have to continue to build through the farm in order for one day to be a competetive team. The Rays are a perfect example of one of these teams. Struggled for their first 15 years and eventually, the draft choices started to pan out. They built a good offense and pitching team. It is difficult for alot of these teams to build both. Let's look at the Orioles. They have been bad for the last 10 years. They haven't drafted well. The talent coming up through the farm, while highly hyped by guys like Steve Stone, just aren't good enough. That falls on the head of the GM, scouting department, etc.

 

The Sox are fortunate that they can afford a $100 million payroll. That can help cover up a deficient farm. Unfortunately, our GM has been bad the past few years overall. Bringing in Peavy, Rios, Teahen and then giving him an extension, Linebrink, Pierre just keeps adding to the payroll, but when most of these guys don't work out. Rios is the only one who really has been good and Pierre and Peavy average at best, it straps the organization. The only way to overcome bad high money deals is by eating the money and going with talented, cheap, young talent.

 

I really think JR needs to clean house and start fresh with a smart mind at GM and clean house on the field with management, Ozzie, Walker, Cora can all go. Hold on to Coop, he has some special talents. He can't fix them all, but he has proven to be very helpful. I would love to have a GM and Manager who see eye to eye in philosophy. KW and Oz never really have. Things hit the fan when KW let Oz determine if Thome could come back this year. Who is running the organization exactly? Shouldn't all personnel decisions be up to the GM?

 

I would love to get a young, smart, Harvard type guy in the mold of Epstein, Hoyer, Daniels. These guys are smart and make sound decisions. They take sabremetrics seriously and field a team to the best way one can. High OBP. High UZR ratings. Solid pitching. Farm systems that can plug guys in and still have a solid team.

 

Epstein's Red Sox are a great example of a GM who does things right. Look at all the injuries they had this season. Can you imagine that happening to us? They have been competetive all season even though they were without Pedroia,Youk, Ellsbury, Cameron, VMart and Beckett for parts of the season. They just gave their kids a chance and they knew they could perform. We would have been screwed. Can you imagine Danks2, De Aza, Retherford, Flowers all being able to step in and fill positions and still win at the MLB level this season? Never would have happened.

 

I appreciate what KW did for us in 2005. I actually like the guy and some of his ideas. He has always tried to build a solid SP staff and has been pretty successful with that. I just think we need a fresh person in the organization. Someone to fix and reshape this team in the minors as well as the majors. I know Reinsdorf will probably never do it, he is just too loyal, to a fault.

 

[jenksycat]

The problem is, the money we are pissing away to Peavy, Linebrink and Teahen preclude the team from making 'the big time moves' of which you speak. Just resigning Paulie would IMO be a bigtime move and only one that gets you back to some of what you had this year.

 

Peavy, when heathy, isn't pissing away money. Line and Teahen aren't exactly on A-rod contracts.

 

I don't want big-time moves. I don't want to sign Mark Texeria for 45 years at 180 million dollars. I don't want to sign prince fielder for 10 years and 200 million. These massive long-term "big time" deals are going to be absolute disasters at the tail end when we realized 37 year old players who are not on steroids simply can't do it anymore. Once ALL teams realize that, then maybe we can get back to realistic contracts where a team can actually expect solid performance for 4-5 years; these 8+ year contracts are ridiculous.

[Balta1701]

Peavy, when heathy, isn't pissing away money. Line and Teahen aren't exactly on A-rod contracts.

 

I don't want big-time moves. I don't want to sign Mark Texeria for 45 years at 180 million dollars. I don't want to sign prince fielder for 10 years and 200 million. These massive long-term "big time" deals are going to be absolute disasters at the tail end when we realized 37 year old players who are not on steroids simply can't do it anymore. Once ALL teams realize that, then maybe we can get back to realistic contracts where a team can actually expect solid performance for 4-5 years; these 8+ year contracts are ridiculous.

Bah...these 8+ year contracts may be ridiculous...but like it or not, that's the going rate for a top, regular-MVP level player these days. That number isn't going down.

[BigSqwert]

Time To Change The Business Model

 

I vote for using the Yankees model. Just outspend everyone and guarantee a playoff berth every season.

Edited September 15, 2010 by BigSqwert