Another ridiculously long SI.com article on KW & the Sox

[LittleHurt05]

link

 

Williams has built winners with unique approach on South Side

 

The Second City's second team plays, physically, at the fringe of respectable Chicago, that renowned center of molecular gastronomy, Mies van der Rohe structures and futures trading. Home plate at U.S. Cellular Field is a brief walk from the old Union Stock Yard Gate, two L stops from the second most crime-ridden corner in the United States and an hour's bicycle ride from depressed reaches of northwest Indiana which manage to be gray and brown even on perfect June days. The Cubs play in the town of departing mayor Richard Daley's idylls, full of wrought iron fencing and green markets. The White Sox don't.

 

"We may as well be in two different cities," says Kenny Williams, the team's general manager. "It's that different. So draw a line down through Madison Street or whatever the dividing line is, just like North Dakota, South Dakota -- north Chicago, south Chicago, just call it different states."

 

To understand why Williams is so good at what he does, this is where you start, with an awareness that he operates not in a large market, but on the South Side, which is usually called "working class" but could more accurately be called "broke". Consider that by one measure, which multiplies local population by average income, the size of the Chicago market is closest to the major league average, and that the Cubs draw the moneyed class, and you'll see the difficulties of the situation.

 

Despite playing in the third largest city in the country, the Sox rank 17th in average attendance per game among the 30 major league teams this year. According to a recent Harris poll, they rank 15th in popularity. Running the club is an exercise in suffering such big city annoyances as a large, obnoxious press corps without such compensatory benefits as having quite enough cash to buy division titles outright. (The Sox run decent payrolls, but are closer in spending to the Houston Astros than the Detroit Tigers this year, and ranked 12th in baseball last year.)

 

Judged as the record of a team situated in an alpha world city, the Sox's run since Williams' ascension to his present job in November 2000 -- the 10th-best record in the major leagues, no truly bad seasons, two playoff appearances and a World Series championship -- isn't at all bad. Taken as the record of a team in a relatively modest market, it's very good.

 

There are two key reasons why the Sox do well. The first is that they understand probability. While Williams would protest that the team's goal every year is to win the World Series and that anything else is a failure, in truth they're annually built to win 85 to 90 games, with the understanding that with some good fortune they might win 95 and a pennant, and that with a few injuries or off years they might slip below .500. A dodgy plan in a given year, building a decent team every year is a sure way to eventually come up with a great one.

 

The second is that they want to win, which is not always a given. When things are breaking their way, they become ruthless -- turning over the closer role to untested waiver claim Bobby Jenks in 2005, handing a top setup role to June draftee Chris Sale this year. Asked why he was willing to take on millions of dollars in salary obligations to add Manny Ramirez this August, owner Jerry Reinsdorf said, "When you have a year where you think you have a chance to win, you have to try. It's as simple as that."

 

All of which explains why taking on Ramirez was the perfect expression of a sound team philosophy, and why scoffing at the Sox for the way a close race with the Minnesota Twins has turned into a joke the past few days as Manny has flailed misses the point. Without the willingness to take a well-timed risk, the Sox would never have been in the race at all.

 

The White Sox have a slightly unusual culture. From Williams to manager Ozzie Guillen to team chef Roy Rivas, the team is run and staffed largely by people who have worked for Reinsdorf for decades. As often happens in such cases, the ministers have adopted some of the czar's tics, in this case a knack for saying things that aren't quite as banal as they sound. Take Williams' explanation of what he looks for in a player.

 

"We have to have players that are Chicago tough," he says. "This is a little different than other places, because you very rarely get a player that's going to come here and everyone is jubilant and all for it. That player generally -- particularly with most of my acquisitions -- comes with a certain amount of negativity attached, of skepticism attached. So if that particular player hasn't already dealt with a certain adversity in his career or in his life and bounced back from it and remained strong from it, he isn't going to survive."

 

Baseball types talk a lot about adversity. In theory, no one wants players who yield to it, and everyone wants players who triumph over it. In practice, nearly all of them want players who have never had to deal with failure at all. There is a reason why Derek Jeter is considered the ideal player.

 

Williams is different; his claim that he wants players who have dealt with a certain adversity is demonstrably true. This year's key Sox include formerly busted prospects John Danks, Gavin Floyd and Carlos Quentin; Alex Rios, a player so lost the Toronto Blue Jays were willing to literally give him away last year just to be rid of his salary, and Alexei Ramirez, a Cuban native.

 

Even in his more minor dealings over the past year, Williams has tended toward failures. Short reliever J.J. Putz was signed coming off an arm injury; left fielder Juan Pierre was another player his team was willing to pay to be rid of; infielder Omar Vizquel is 79 years old. All have contributed. Putz set a team record for most consecutive scoreless appearances, Pierre has brought enough speed and defense to be passable despite a .313 slugging average, and Vizquel has orchestrated a surprisingly tight infield defense and run up the second best on-base average on the team.

 

If, instead of talking about adversity and toughness, Williams were to start speaking in business jargon, the broad baseball-loving public might credit him more for his ability to identify undervalued assets. Of course he's had his failures; young pitchers Gio Gonzalez, Daniel Hudson and Clayton Richard and outfielder Nick Swisher are wearing the uniforms of other teams and demonstrating quite convincingly that Williams' eye for the undervalued asset doesn't always extend to his own roster. And his refusal to sign designated hitter Jim Thome for a fairly nominal sum this past winter is probably the single biggest reason the Sox's pennant hopes were ended this week -- the team spent most of the year getting utterly intolerable hitting from such Thome replacements as Mark Kotsay while the big man was slugging above .600 for Minnesota.

 

Anyone with a decade as a general manager will have made his mistakes, though, and Williams' aren't nearly as consequential as his successes. What's perhaps most impressive about his ability to extract value from failed prospects and young veterans who have seemingly lost their way is that the way he does so is unique to the Sox.

 

Take the pitchers. The Sox are famously durable: During coach Don Cooper's tenure, the team has had half again as many 200-inning seasons from their starters as the next best team, and they've averaged just 17 starts per year from pitchers outside. Better is that they're flat good. This year, for example, they're tied for the lowest home run rate in the American League, even though U.S. Cellular is perhaps the best home run park in the circuit.

 

None of this is accidental. The Sox focus on motion and efficiency, throwing a lot more cut fastballs than the average, and many fewer arm-torquing curveballs. Pitchers such as Danks and Floyd consistently start walking fewer batters on their arrival in the majors, and surrender fewer fly balls. Even when they do, the motion on their pitches helps them -- by one calculation, the Sox have picked up several wins' worth of runs just by giving up fewer home runs than would be predicted by their fly ball rate.

 

Edwin Jackson, acquired in the Hudson trade in July, provides a perfect example: A trade to the Sox turned him into a new pitcher. He dropped his curve, started throwing his cutting slider more often, cut his walk rate in half, and picked up an extra two-thirds of an inning per start. His ERA fell by more than two runs.

 

This is a program, you'll note, almost perfectly suited to pitchers who have struggled with the above-mentioned adversity. Give Cooper a big man with a moving fastball and a decent motion and he can get good pitching out of him by tweaking his mechanics, teaching him a new pitch, coaxing him to throw strikes. Williams' ability to identify such pitchers and pick them up at (usually) cheap rates offers him an immense advantage over other teams. He has an alchemist working for him.

 

Should Williams get the credit for that, or for a medical crew that's helped keep the team unusually healthy even when fielding the injury-prone and/or aging likes of Quentin, Thome and Paul Konerko? It's hard to see why not. Building and retaining a good staff is the better part of being a general manager. If Williams has set up a system that allows him to get more out of certain kinds of players than anyone else can -- if the otherwise infirm can take the field for him, while wild pitchers harness their fastballs and the mildly eccentric feel free to do their thing under the tolerant Guillen -- and if he can reliably obtain those kinds of players, he's up on all but the very elite among his peers.

 

Williams has real weaknesses. His unwillingness to pay up for real power hitting, his habit of dispersing money among a lot of so-so role players rather than focusing it on one really good one, his (until recently puzzling) drafts, and his constant mad pursuit of such great catches as Ramirez and Jake Peavy have all cost the team. These are, though, all correctable. And if he continues to grow and evolve, the Sox should be in for a decade even better than their last.

 

Most of the core players here -- Danks, Floyd, Rios, Quentin, Ramirez, second baseman Gordon Beckham -- are still in their primes. The Sox have tens of millions of dollars in salary obligations coming off the books this winter, and will have even more to spend if Peavy, realistically the No. 5 starter despite being the best paid member of the team, proves unable to come back from unprecedented surgery to repair a side muscle that rolled up like a windowshade this summer.

 

This year, the dice didn't come up for Williams and the Sox. They built their 85-to-90 win team, picked up the best available player to fill their greatest need when it looked like they were close, and their numbers just didn't come up. Next year they'll likely be just as good, and if Williams is shrewd with his spending they could easily enter the year as a pennant favorite. You can see failure, if you care to, in Flushing, Queens, or on the North Side of Chicago. This isn't it.

 

Ranking Williams' Moves In 2010

1. Claimed Manny Ramirez on waivers

 

Ramirez may not have an extra-base hit as a Sox, but adding one of the game's best hitters for nothing but money when they were still in the race was absolutely the right move.

 

2. Signed J.J. Putz

 

Putz, coming off an injury, has been a key part of a very effective bullpen.

 

3. Signed Andruw Jones

 

Jones has been quite useful as a role player, slugging nearly .500 and batting .467 in September for his best campaign in four years.

 

4. Signed Omar Vizquel

 

Centuries after his birth, Vizquel remains a capable reserve. His getting into a game as a designated hitter was a highlight of the year in baseball.

 

5. Traded Jon Ely and Jon Link to Dodgers for Juan Pierre and money

 

Roundly mocked, the decision to fill a hole in left field with Pierre, who can't hit, has turned out decently well. He's cheap and does things that aren't hitting well enough to deserve his playing time.

 

6. Traded Josh Fields and Chris Getz to Royals for Mark Teahen

 

Moving two bad players for a slightly below average one at a position of need was no masterstroke, but wasn't much worth criticizing. Signing him to an inexplicable three-year extension was.

 

7. Traded Daniel Hudson and David Holmberg to Diamondbacks for Edwin Jackson

 

With Hudson (1.67 ERA) looking every bit the stud starter his minor league numbers suggested, this deal looks pretty bad right now despite Jackson's superb performance with the Sox.

 

 

[Paint it Black]

http://www.soxtalk.com/forums/index.php?showtopic=79459

 

the other thread with nearly the same title.

[LittleHurt05]

http://www.soxtalk.com/forums/index.php?showtopic=79459

 

the other thread with nearly the same title.

 

I know, I did that on purpose, different article....

[Gregory Pratt]

The first was called "ridiculously long" because that's the author's tag line; it's how you know it's a Posnanski. This one being called "ridiculously long" just ain't right.

[LittleHurt05]

The first was called "ridiculously long" because that's the author's tag line; it's how you know it's a Posnanski. This one being called "ridiculously long" just ain't right.

 

f***! I totally missed that. Big fan of Posnanski's writing too, would change it if I knew how.

[jasonxctf]

here's what i don't like.

 

While Williams would protest that the team's goal every year is to win the World Series and that anything else is a failure, in truth they're annually built to win 85 to 90 games, with the understanding that with some good fortune they might win 95 and a pennant, and that with a few injuries or off years they might slip below .500.

 

2010- Twins on pace for 97 wins

2009- Twins 87 wins

2008- Sox 89 wins

2007- Indians 96 wins

2006- Twins 96 wins

2005- Sox 99 wins

2004- Twins 92 wins

2003- Twins 90 wins

2002- Twins 94 wins

2001- Indians 91 wins

2000- Sox 95 wins

 

So if that truly is the goal, we are undershooting what it takes to win a division. 85-90 win seasons won the division 3 out of the past 11 seasons. The average win total it took to take the Central was 93.27 wins.

 

If you take 85-90 and cut it down the middle, to say 88 wins.. that would have won the division only 1 time!!!

[southsider2k5]

here's what i don't like.

 

While Williams would protest that the team's goal every year is to win the World Series and that anything else is a failure, in truth they're annually built to win 85 to 90 games, with the understanding that with some good fortune they might win 95 and a pennant, and that with a few injuries or off years they might slip below .500.

 

2010- Twins on pace for 97 wins

2009- Twins 87 wins

2008- Sox 89 wins

2007- Indians 96 wins

2006- Twins 96 wins

2005- Sox 99 wins

2004- Twins 92 wins

2003- Twins 90 wins

2002- Twins 94 wins

2001- Indians 91 wins

2000- Sox 95 wins

 

So if that truly is the goal, we are undershooting what it takes to win a division. 85-90 win seasons won the division 3 out of the past 11 seasons. The average win total it took to take the Central was 93.27 wins.

 

If you take 85-90 and cut it down the middle, to say 88 wins.. that would have won the division only 1 time!!!

 

One hole in that... What it takes to win a division is based on who finished second. If the second place team won 85 games, it only took 86 games to actually win the division.

[bighurt574]

here's what i don't like.

 

While Williams would protest that the team's goal every year is to win the World Series and that anything else is a failure, in truth they're annually built to win 85 to 90 games, with the understanding that with some good fortune they might win 95 and a pennant, and that with a few injuries or off years they might slip below .500.

 

2010- Twins on pace for 97 wins

2009- Twins 87 wins

2008- Sox 89 wins

2007- Indians 96 wins

2006- Twins 96 wins

2005- Sox 99 wins

2004- Twins 92 wins

2003- Twins 90 wins

2002- Twins 94 wins

2001- Indians 91 wins

2000- Sox 95 wins

 

So if that truly is the goal, we are undershooting what it takes to win a division. 85-90 win seasons won the division 3 out of the past 11 seasons. The average win total it took to take the Central was 93.27 wins.

 

If you take 85-90 and cut it down the middle, to say 88 wins.. that would have won the division only 1 time!!!

 

I think that's sort of the point, they're built for 85-90 wins in an average year, which usually isn't going to win the division by itself. There aren't too many teams in baseball that can have an average year and still expect to make the playoffs (the Yankees are probably about it). I'm not sure how you change that, other than being willing to throw another $20 million or more on the payroll each year.

Edited September 17, 2010 by bighurt574

[jasonxctf]

One hole in that... What it takes to win a division is based on who finished second. If the second place team won 85 games, it only took 86 games to actually win the division.

 

good point. the only other thing is the wild card. you increase your chances dramatically of playoff baseball if you don't take the 2nd place team + 1 win goal.

 

to me, that's like a college kid saying.. "I just need a 68% on the final to pass the course so im not going to try real hard."

[NorthSideSox72]

here's what i don't like.

 

While Williams would protest that the team's goal every year is to win the World Series and that anything else is a failure, in truth they're annually built to win 85 to 90 games, with the understanding that with some good fortune they might win 95 and a pennant, and that with a few injuries or off years they might slip below .500.

 

2010- Twins on pace for 97 wins

2009- Twins 87 wins

2008- Sox 89 wins

2007- Indians 96 wins

2006- Twins 96 wins

2005- Sox 99 wins

2004- Twins 92 wins

2003- Twins 90 wins

2002- Twins 94 wins

2001- Indians 91 wins

2000- Sox 95 wins

 

So if that truly is the goal, we are undershooting what it takes to win a division. 85-90 win seasons won the division 3 out of the past 11 seasons. The average win total it took to take the Central was 93.27 wins.

 

If you take 85-90 and cut it down the middle, to say 88 wins.. that would have won the division only 1 time!!!

That's a trick of writing. Read the graf again. KW did not say that was the goal, and I don't believe that anyway. That is the author's opinion being tacked onto KW's words.

 

[jasonxctf]

I think that's sort of the point, they're built for 85-90 wins in an average year, which usually isn't going to win the division by itself. There aren't too many teams in baseball that can have an average year and still expect to make the playoffs (the Yankees are probably about it). I'm not sure how you change that, other than being willing to throw another $20 million or more on the payroll each year.

 

the same way the Twins do it.

[bighurt574]

the same way the Twins do it.

 

Easier said than done. I don't think the Twins target a higher level of success than the Sox, they're just better at achieving it. That's an entirely different issue.

[southsider2k5]

the same way the Twins do it.

 

So you'll still buy tickets if we go 11 seasons between playoff appearances while we build ourselves like the Twins did?

[jasonxctf]

So you'll still buy tickets if we go 11 seasons between playoff appearances while we build ourselves like the Twins did?

 

kind of like between 1983-1993... sure.

 

Or 1993-2000.

[knightni]

1984-1992 was brutal. You don't want that.

[caulfield12]

1984-1992 was brutal. You don't want that.

 

Not really.

 

That 1990 White Sox team was my favorite of all-time.

 

We were putting the pieces in place like Thomas, Ventura, McDowell, Alvarez, Sosa (that went bust), Alex Fernandez, Lance Johnson, Jason Bere, etc., for an extended string of winning baseball and also opening up the new stadium, which turned out initially to be a great disappointment but it was still exciting to be leaving Old Comiskey.

 

In 1991 and 92, you could see the potential that would be fulfilled in 1993 and the strike-shortened 94 season.

 

Unfortunately, the Indians' monster wasn't far behind.

 

Now 1984-1987, I'll agree with you there. There was Ozzie to entertain the fans and that was about it. Thigpen, I guess. And Fisk, of course.

[knightni]

Not really.

 

That 1990 White Sox team was my favorite of all-time.

 

We were putting the pieces in place like Thomas, Ventura, McDowell, Alvarez, Sosa (that went bust), Alex Fernandez, Lance Johnson, Jason Bere, etc., for an extended string of winning baseball and also opening up the new stadium, which turned out initially to be a great disappointment but it was still exciting to be leaving Old Comiskey.

 

In 1991 and 92, you could see the potential that would be fulfilled in 1993 and the strike-shortened 94 season.

 

Unfortunately, the Indians' monster wasn't far behind.

 

Now 1984-1987, I'll agree with you there. There was Ozzie to entertain the fans and that was about it. Thigpen, I guess. And Fisk, of course.

'85 wasn't bad, but '86-'89 was the meat in the s*** sandwich.

 

I almost had "Denying Christ" moments in the late 80s with the teams that they put on the field.

 

Me: "Yeah...I'm a White Sox fan..."

 

Them: "Really? Those exist?"

[caulfield12]

But it was a fun in the sense you could hang out in the picnic area and talk to Carlos Martinez, Sosa or Scott Radinsky and that was a time before access to the players was more tightly-controlled...of course, the attendance back then could range in the 6-12,000 vicinity most nights.

 

Ivan Bubbling Calderon was actually my favorite Sox player during those years, along with Gary Redus a Bedtime Story.

 

Sad how Calderon died. Joe DeSa, too.

 

 

[thxfrthmmrs]

One hole in that... What it takes to win a division is based on who finished second. If the second place team won 85 games, it only took 86 games to actually win the division.

 

 

one hole in your argument. You have to top the first place team to win the division, not by topping the so called "second place team". theoretically, the first place team will finish with that amount of win no matter what the other teams do. So the 2007 Indians will finish with 96 wins regardless of what the second place team do. In order to top them and win the division, you need 97 wins. So the OP was correct when saying you need 93.66 wins to win the division.

[thxfrthmmrs]

after reading the article, i think a good reclamation project would be Joba Chamberlain. This guy has the so called "Chicago tough" Kenny is looking for, and is going the adversity of failing in a big city media right now.

 

Peripheral wise, he gave up 21 homerun and 76 walks in 155 innings last season, If Coop can get him to throw a cutter and reduce his HR rate and walk rate like his work with Ejax, Joba can be scary good, can be sort of like the Josh Johnson of AL.

[chw42]

after reading the article, i think a good reclamation project would be Joba Chamberlain. This guy has the so called "Chicago tough" Kenny is looking for, and is going the adversity of failing in a big city media right now.

 

Peripheral wise, he gave up 21 homerun and 76 walks in 155 innings last season, If Coop can get him to throw a cutter and reduce his HR rate and walk rate like his work with Ejax, Joba can be scary good, can be sort of like the Josh Johnson of AL.

 

Only Coop can fix him.

[chetkincaid]

after reading the article, i think a good reclamation project would be Joba Chamberlain. This guy has the so called "Chicago tough" Kenny is looking for, and is going the adversity of failing in a big city media right now.

 

Peripheral wise, he gave up 21 homerun and 76 walks in 155 innings last season, If Coop can get him to throw a cutter and reduce his HR rate and walk rate like his work with Ejax, Joba can be scary good, can be sort of like the Josh Johnson of AL.

 

I thought about Joba Chamberlain a lot this season. I think if he were to get away from the ultra bright limelight in NY, he'll have a good chance to figure things out. I'd love to have him if we wouldn't have to give up much to get him. Coop might be able to work wonders with him.

 

I believe that a starter (Floyd or Danks or Jackson) is going to be traded in the offseason to fill one of the many holes we have right now (PLEASE get Chin Soo Choo), so if coop can fix Joba, that would be an immense improvement.

Edited September 20, 2010 by Chet Kincaid

[Steve9347]

The first was called "ridiculously long" because that's the author's tag line; it's how you know it's a Posnanski. This one being called "ridiculously long" just ain't right.

Actually, the author's tagline is "Curiously long".