Kenny Set Ozzie Up?

[Marty34]

Per Cowley:

 

Guillen and Williams met right before SoxFest to talk about player personnel and agreed Guillen's wish for a designated hitter-by-committee was the way they would go. That lasted until a town-hall meeting with Sox fans, during which Williams was asked about free-agent slugger Jim Thome and inexplicably threw the decision onto Guillen. Guillen stuck to the plan and passed on Thome.

 

A conspiracy theorist might interpret that as Williams putting himself in a win-win situation, knowing he could brag about how everyone has a say in the organization if it worked and could invoke an ''it wasn't me'' alibi if it didn't.

[maggsmaggs]

Per Cowley:

 

If Cowley was right -- which I doubt -- I am pretty Guillen would have let slip that KW agreed with him or something like that.

[Dick Allen]

Cowley's source is Oney and Ozzie Jr. There's a better chance Greg will put Ozzie at fault for anything before him.

[soxrwhite]

It worked out that way but it wasn't planned.

[Cali]

It's a conspiracy theory I could totally buy... I've kind of thought about that this season at times....

[NorthSideSox72]

Cowley's source is Oney and Ozzie Jr. There's a better chance Greg will put Ozzie at fault for anything before him.

If those are indeed his sources, then yeah, this theory is a joke.

 

Furthermore, as I recall, Ozzie HIMSELF said multiple times that he made the call on not bringing back Thome. It was his decision, he chose to own it. It failed.

 

[The Ginger Kid]

yes, if we had thome the sox wouldn't be 11 games out. Maybe 9.

[elrockinMT]

Conspiracy Theory in the baseball world. It's a James Bond kind of thing I guess.

[southsider2k5]

Nice to see Cowley is still reading Soxtalk. This theory got advanced here like 8 months ago. The internet must be really slow in his moms basement.

[witesoxfan]

yes, if we had thome the sox wouldn't be 11 games out. Maybe 9.

 

See, it doesn't work like that. The Sox may only be 2 games better, but the Twins would also be (atleast) 2 games worse. In the most conservative of scenarios, that leaves the Sox at 7 games back. Still dead to rights, but it's not 11 games.

 

Looking at a better case scenario, Thome may have been worth 3 wins to the White Sox, may be worth 4 wins to the Twins, and Mark Kotsay, who could be worth -2 losses, leaves the Sox 2 games back right now. And, perhaps had they had Thome instead of Kotsay, they may have been up 5-8 games on the Twins at some point, and it may have either forced the Twins hand into trying something out of line for what they do (getting too aggressive and dealing Slowey or Baker along with Hicks and another minor leaguer for Cliff Lee) or perhaps feeling that it wouldn't be worth it to try and get back into the race and maybe sell off a piece or two. Beyond that, the Sox may have felt that their division lead was big enough that they didn't need to trade for Edwin Jackson, and because they already had a good DH, they wouldn't have had to acquire Manny Ramirez, and those moves right there save the Sox about $5 mill this year and about $8 million next year.

 

I could go on and on about the ramifications from not signing Thome, and even still it's all hypotheticals and could-of's, but not signing Thome was an absolutely monstrosity of a failure, and anybody who tries to justify it because the "Sox would have lost the division anyways" is looking at this in a completely short-sighted manner and trying to make it seem like it wasn't a big deal when quite clearly it was a huge deal.

[Harry Chappas]

Am I revising history but wasn't it common knowledge that Guillen wanted the roving DH and KW wanted Thome because the price was right but he allowed Guillen to stick to his guns.

 

I never saw KW talk about the roving DH and liking it.

 

Guillen wanted Kotsay he made that known, to fill that roll, thus taking Kotsay over Thome.

 

Cowley is just trying to get himself through the season.

Edited September 24, 2010 by Jenks Heat

[Middle Buffalo]

Ozzie's plan to be more flexible at DH isn't a bad one. Thome was too one dimensionsal. Konerko-Thome-Dye in the middle of the order was like having three statues on the bases. The real problem is that Kotsay and Jones were terrible replacements for Thome, and Thome had a great year (which amplified the problem).

 

I'd like to see the Sox re-sign Konerko and have Quentin and him share DH time and play part time in the field. Lose Kotsay, lose Jones, and get a little more athletic and flexible.

[The Ginger Kid]

See, it doesn't work like that. The Sox may only be 2 games better, but the Twins would also be (atleast) 2 games worse. In the most conservative of scenarios, that leaves the Sox at 7 games back. Still dead to rights, but it's not 11 games.

 

Looking at a better case scenario, Thome may have been worth 3 wins to the White Sox, may be worth 4 wins to the Twins, and Mark Kotsay, who could be worth -2 losses, leaves the Sox 2 games back right now. And, perhaps had they had Thome instead of Kotsay, they may have been up 5-8 games on the Twins at some point, and it may have either forced the Twins hand into trying something out of line for what they do (getting too aggressive and dealing Slowey or Baker along with Hicks and another minor leaguer for Cliff Lee) or perhaps feeling that it wouldn't be worth it to try and get back into the race and maybe sell off a piece or two. Beyond that, the Sox may have felt that their division lead was big enough that they didn't need to trade for Edwin Jackson, and because they already had a good DH, they wouldn't have had to acquire Manny Ramirez, and those moves right there save the Sox about $5 mill this year and about $8 million next year.

 

I could go on and on about the ramifications from not signing Thome, and even still it's all hypotheticals and could-of's, but not signing Thome was an absolutely monstrosity of a failure, and anybody who tries to justify it because the "Sox would have lost the division anyways" is looking at this in a completely short-sighted manner and trying to make it seem like it wasn't a big deal when quite clearly it was a huge deal.

Eh, no. It may have been a failure but in no way to I see it as a game changer making us division champs. If they can win at this clip w/o Morneau, they can do it w/o the aging Thome.

 

And another important distinction: Thome would've hit 3rd for the Sox and been in the lineup every day he was available. The Twins put him down in the order and got him plenty of days off throughout the season, knowing that he would break down otherwise. What I'm saying is that the Sox would most likely have been w/o his services for long stretches this season and he would've been more worn down and likely less productive overall. Why? Because they are smarter.

[LittleHurt05]

See, it doesn't work like that. The Sox may only be 2 games better, but the Twins would also be (atleast) 2 games worse. In the most conservative of scenarios, that leaves the Sox at 7 games back. Still dead to rights, but it's not 11 games.

 

Looking at a better case scenario, Thome may have been worth 3 wins to the White Sox, may be worth 4 wins to the Twins, and Mark Kotsay, who could be worth -2 losses, leaves the Sox 2 games back right now. And, perhaps had they had Thome instead of Kotsay, they may have been up 5-8 games on the Twins at some point, and it may have either forced the Twins hand into trying something out of line for what they do (getting too aggressive and dealing Slowey or Baker along with Hicks and another minor leaguer for Cliff Lee) or perhaps feeling that it wouldn't be worth it to try and get back into the race and maybe sell off a piece or two. Beyond that, the Sox may have felt that their division lead was big enough that they didn't need to trade for Edwin Jackson, and because they already had a good DH, they wouldn't have had to acquire Manny Ramirez, and those moves right there save the Sox about $5 mill this year and about $8 million next year.

 

I could go on and on about the ramifications from not signing Thome, and even still it's all hypotheticals and could-of's, but not signing Thome was an absolutely monstrosity of a failure, and anybody who tries to justify it because the "Sox would have lost the division anyways" is looking at this in a completely short-sighted manner and trying to make it seem like it wasn't a big deal when quite clearly it was a huge deal.

 

How do you know the Sox are two games better with Thome? I doubt he comes here and hits the way he did in Minnesota. Maybe having him in the lineup forces Paulie to play more 1st base, and he doesnt have the career year he is having.

 

How do you know the Twins would be 2 games worse? You have no idea who they would have brought in to fill the roster spot Thome used. And maybe without Thome on the roster, lineups work out differently, and maybe Morneau doesn't get concussed in Toronto, thus having him in the lineup would cancel out a lot of what Thome contributed.

 

I agree that not signing Thome was a big mistake, but it was one of many reason why the Twins are division champs. However, you can't just throw these numbers around assuming everything else about each team would stay the same if Thome switched. He was worth 3 or 4 wins to the Twins in the position he was put in, but that does not mean he would be worth the same to the Sox, nor does it mean the Twins would automatically be 3 or 4 games worse without him.

Edited September 24, 2010 by LittleHurt05

[NorthSideSox72]

There's nothing wrong with rotating guys at DH. If you have, say, 4 OF's who are all good bats, or maybe 2 1B's, its a great way to rest them and have lineup flexibility.

 

There is EVERYTHING wrong with thinking that Kotsay/Jones was a viable replacement for Thome's production. That was Ozzie's call, and it failed.

 

[Mr. Wedmesday]

I don't know who set who up....

 

But it seems obvious that the only way a rotating DH scheme has any chance of working is if the players who are part of that rotation are, at the very least, good enough hitters to DH on their own. One righty and lefty and hey why not make the third guy a switch hitter.

 

And the operative word is hitter.

 

But who among our DH rotation was anything but overaged, overmatched, or a utility guy. KW surely knew that three bad hitters won't somehow be better because they are part of a totally lame "rotation". Each guy did what he was capable of on his day--very little.

 

That Ozzie did not recognize how faulty his plan was boggles the mind.

 

[klaus kinski]

Ozzie's plan to be more flexible at DH isn't a bad one. Thome was too one dimensionsal. Konerko-Thome-Dye in the middle of the order was like having three statues on the bases. The real problem is that Kotsay and Jones were terrible replacements for Thome, and Thome had a great year (which amplified the problem).

 

I'd like to see the Sox re-sign Konerko and have Quentin and him share DH time and play part time in the field. Lose Kotsay, lose Jones, and get a little more athletic and flexible.

 

Key here is at least they were "On the bases"

 

[CanOfCorn]

Kenny's way didn't work.

Ozzie's way didn't work.

 

Let's see what we get next year.

[witesoxfan]

Eh, no. It may have been a failure but in no way to I see it as a game changer making us division champs. If they can win at this clip w/o Morneau, they can do it w/o the aging Thome.

 

I don't see how you can really suggest that. They'd still be winning, because they have a good overall team and they probably would have found some type of competent replacement, but with their current team, there's no one on their roster that is going to replace Jim Thome. I think you are seriously undervaluing Jim Thome (which *never* happened when he was with the Sox). Jim Thome has come on and been like the best hitter in the entire league during the second half of the season. You are going to tell me that the Twins are going to go to the minors and find some ho-hum bum who is going to be the best hitter in the league?

 

(of course, people are going to wisecrack and say "DANNY VALENCIA" and "LEW FORD" and whoever else...none of them are anywhere near Thome)

 

And another important distinction: Thome would've hit 3rd for the Sox and been in the lineup every day he was available. The Twins put him down in the order and got him plenty of days off throughout the season, knowing that he would break down otherwise. What I'm saying is that the Sox would most likely have been w/o his services for long stretches this season and he would've been more worn down and likely less productive overall. Why? Because they are smarter.

 

That's due to the incompetence of the manager. Ozzie Guillen didn't think he had enough at-bats for Jim Thome, but that's BS. The Twins, even with Justin Morneau for most of the first half as well as Delmon Young having a breakout season, still managed to get Thome 175 plate appearances in the first half of the season, which is about a 325 PA pace.

 

I also don't buy that Thome would have broken down and missed a ton of time. I agree that Ozzie would have miscast him as the everyday DH in Chicago (when Thome was quite clearly content with playing part time, considering he signed with Minnesota when their roster was packed), but he had one DL stint during the 4 years he was with the Sox, and he still would have been a productive player...an .850 OPS from the left side in the middle of the lineup would have helped a hell of a lot more than a .684 OPS, I can tell you that much for sure.

 

How do you know the Sox are two games better with Thome? I doubt he comes here and hits the way he did in Minnesota. Maybe having him in the lineup forces Paulie to play more 1st base, and he doesnt have the career year he is having.

 

As I said above, I agree that Thome would not be a 1.000+ OPS monster in Chicago. I figure he probably would have put up an .850 OPS because he would have been misused by Ozzie.

 

But to suggest Konerko is having a career year because he's DH'ed more? I would strongly disagree and would suggest that you are grasping at straws to justify a huge misstep by the Sox. Konerko DH'ed 17 times last year and has DH'ed 21 times this year. He played 134 games in the field last year and has played 121 this season. I would say it's likely that Konerko will probably DH one more time, may (or may not) get a day off, and the differences between the two will be minimal. The main reason Konerko has had the year he's had are because he's been healthy all season (you can argue the contract year stuff too, but I won't).

 

How do you know the Twins would be 2 games worse? You have no idea who they would have brought in to fill the roster spot Thome used. And maybe without Thome on the roster, lineups work out differently, and maybe Morneau doesn't get concussed in Toronto, thus having him in the lineup would cancel out a lot of what Thome contributed.

 

And maybe the Sox sign Jim Thome and his addition does win the division. Maybe Ozzie would have used him correctly and not played him against LHP and gave him scheduled days off and taken care of him with baby gloves, and maybe the Twins don't have a legitimate replacement in the minors, and the players they rotate through the DH spot in the following months put up a Mark Kotsay-ian -0.7 WAR. Using calculated numbers, that could mean

 

White Sox +4.4 wins

Twins -4.4 wins

 

That's 9 games, and had 7 of those been in July, when the Sox were up by 3.5 games, it may have been 10.5 and the Twins may have traded Hardy, Hudson, and Pavano and conceded the division to the Sox.

 

I can play that game too.

 

What I like to do instead is look at it ceteris paribus (for the most part, as I discussed above). If Thome has been worth 3-4 wins for the Twins, he certainly would have been worth atleast 2 for the White Sox (unless, of course, he got hurt for an extended period of time, which has only happened to him like once in his entire career). His production would have also saved the Sox from losing games with Mark Kotsay as the DH, so in that regard, it can be viewed at as 3-4 wins added to the Sox. I'm also sure that the Twins would have picked up someone, but I strongly doubt that anyone they picked up would have the resume Thome does, nor would whoever they picked up put up an OPS over 1.000.

 

I agree that not signing Thome was a big mistake, but it was one of many reason why the Twins are division champs. However, you can't just throw these numbers around assuming everything else about each team would stay the same if Thome switched. He was worth 3 or 4 wins to the Twins in the position he was put in, but that does not mean he would be worth the same to the Sox, nor does it mean the Twins would automatically be 3 or 4 games worse without him.

 

Of course you can assume that, because there is a mountain of evidence that suggested that Jim Thome was going to be a good hitter this year, and there was another mountain of evidence that suggested Mark Kotsay was not going to be a good hitter. If something happens during the season and circumstances change, then it happens. But the Sox not signing Thome cost them 250% more financially and they'll end up getting 75% less playing time out of it. Is that a sound investment?

 

The oft-overused phrase (sic) "Sometimes the moves you don't make are the best moves of all." I think we can agree that the Sox not signing Thome was one of the worst moves of all, and it's worse when you consider the bigger picture, because the Sox have not made many great moves in the past 18-24 months.

[LittleHurt05]

Of course you can assume that, because there is a mountain of evidence that suggested that Jim Thome was going to be a good hitter this year, and there was another mountain of evidence that suggested Mark Kotsay was not going to be a good hitter. If something happens during the season and circumstances change, then it happens. But the Sox not signing Thome cost them 250% more financially and they'll end up getting 75% less playing time out of it. Is that a sound investment?

 

The oft-overused phrase (sic) "Sometimes the moves you don't make are the best moves of all." I think we can agree that the Sox not signing Thome was one of the worst moves of all, and it's worse when you consider the bigger picture, because the Sox have not made many great moves in the past 18-24 months.

 

Yeah, i can agree with that. you cannot count exactly how many more wins Thome would have brought, but I do know that Kotsay in the lineup will lose more games.