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Arizona Fall League


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QUOTE (Jerksticks @ Nov 2, 2010 -> 09:48 PM)
What do you think Alexei's arbitration numbers are going to look like?

 

Depends on the season he has next year, but if it's similar, I would guess around $4-5 mill. The next year he will be due about $6-7 mill, and then beyond that he's a free agent.

 

That's what makes Escobar all the more likely to be traded. Ramirez is the closest infielder the Sox have to being a free agent, and he's 3 years away. That is a time where dealing from a position of strength absolutely makes sense. Assuming Williams finds someone who values Escobar, I don't think there is any chance he is in the White Sox organization next year.

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QUOTE (witesoxfan @ Nov 3, 2010 -> 12:03 AM)
Depends on the season he has next year, but if it's similar, I would guess around $4-5 mill. The next year he will be due about $6-7 mill, and then beyond that he's a free agent.

 

That's what makes Escobar all the more likely to be traded. Ramirez is the closest infielder the Sox have to being a free agent, and he's 3 years away. That is a time where dealing from a position of strength absolutely makes sense. Assuming Williams finds someone who values Escobar, I don't think there is any chance he is in the White Sox organization next year.

 

Now is absolutely the time to trade Escobar if only because Saladino probably passes him sometime next season.

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QUOTE (Jerksticks @ Nov 3, 2010 -> 12:33 PM)
Now is absolutely the time to trade Escobar if only because Saladino probably passes him sometime next season.

 

No it's really not. He doesn't hold a whole lot of value at the moment and a nice run in the AFL won't do much to change that. Now, he continues improving with the bat at AA next year and earns a promo to AAA then maybe he will have enough trade value to ship him off for something we need. But as it stands now, his potential value to the Sox is greater than what we could realistically expect in return for him.

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QUOTE (ChiSox_Sonix @ Nov 3, 2010 -> 12:46 PM)
No it's really not. He doesn't hold a whole lot of value at the moment and a nice run in the AFL won't do much to change that. Now, he continues improving with the bat at AA next year and earns a promo to AAA then maybe he will have enough trade value to ship him off for something we need. But as it stands now, his potential value to the Sox is greater than what we could realistically expect in return for him.

Strongly agree.

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QUOTE (Wanne @ Nov 3, 2010 -> 02:02 PM)
Unless you're Kenny Williams...

And why does he do that? Because KW keeps finding legitimate value by stealing guys who perform well in the AFL. It has actually been a successful strategy.

 

If he didn't have him already...Escobar is the kind of guy KW might try to steal as a throw-in in some deal because he had a good year in the AFL.

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QUOTE (Balta1701 @ Nov 3, 2010 -> 01:05 PM)
And why does he do that? Because KW keeps finding legitimate value by stealing guys who perform well in the AFL. It has actually been a successful strategy.

 

If he didn't have him already...Escobar is the kind of guy KW might try to steal as a throw-in in some deal because he had a good year in the AFL.

Tyler Flowers? Whoops. I'm not saying it's a bad strategy, but it hasn't been overwhelmingly positive.

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I would totally trade Escobar if some GM asked about him. It's like a reverse Flowers. If Escobar's bad bat gets exposed even more next season his value becomes toast. I see your point that he could develop even further with the bat and increase his value, but I wouldn't gamble that way, especially if another GM now covets him.

 

There's absolutely no right or wrong opinion on that. It's a gamble either way.

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QUOTE (Jerksticks @ Nov 3, 2010 -> 04:46 PM)
I would totally trade Escobar if some GM asked about him. It's like a reverse Flowers. If Escobar's bad bat gets exposed even more next season his value becomes toast. I see your point that he could develop even further with the bat and increase his value, but I wouldn't gamble that way, especially if another GM now covets him.

 

There's absolutely no right or wrong opinion on that. It's a gamble either way.

If any GM comes and offers you a major league caliber player for Escobar, of course you move him. That's not the issue here.

 

The issue is more with trading guys from lower levels the second they show promise, if you're not getting a substantial return. For example, if you're trading for a big name guy, and they ask for Escobar as a throw-in/deal sweetener...what do you do then? Do you make the deal rapidly and think you've fleeced them, or do you respond by offering up a pitcher that you think you're never going to need?

 

Lots of deal structures with A-ball guys can work out, but lots can bite you big time. Carlos Santana for Casey Blake was the Dodgers not wanting to give up one of their higher level prospects, so they traded a guy having a good season in high-A ball at age 22 after 2 bad seasons in A ball, got to the playoffs, and then a few years later realized they'd given up one of the top prospects in baseball for him. Then again, the Sox gave up several A-ball guys in the Peavy deal and the Swisher deal, and they're not really missing those guys.

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Ultimately I think you are right in that teams probably have little interest in Escobar at the moment. Any GM can look at the same stats we can. All I'm saying is that if some GM has Flowers-like interest in Escobar, there should be no hesitation. We could be looking at his peak value.

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QUOTE (southsider2k5 @ Nov 3, 2010 -> 02:30 PM)
Weren't Danks and Masset guys he found in AFL? Not that Nick worked out for us, but he has some big value.

 

Danks was a first round draft pick that had nothing to disprove that from his minor league career at that point, he was part of the Rangers DVD(Diamond, Volquez, Danks) that they thought would be the rotation of the future.

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