2010-2011 NBA Thread

[iamshack]

Normally it wouldn't be, but when it comes with more shots than points, including another 8 3PA night, and eight turnovers, I'm not going to be convinced that it was a good game.

 

Also, directed at FOP, I think it was already pointed out how flawed a stat +/- is, so citing that as a reason he was good is kind of absurd.

 

This really isn't worth arguing about though, so I'll shut up.

I understand you think we are all simpletons and can't understand advanced statistics, and I readily admit I am still trying to comprehend many of the new baseball statistics, so I sure as hell haven't gotten around to the basketball variety. But I feel like I've watched enough baseketball in the course of the past 27 years or so to recognize a horrible game, a really, really bad game, and whatever other outrageously negative adjective you'd like to assign to his performance, and that performance doesn't strike me as that.

 

It seems like if Derrick wanted to satisfy your idea of a good game, he could just refuse to accept the scoring load and just look to distribute and take the ball the the hoop all night. That way he'd stockpile assists, free throw attemtps, and probably shoot for a higher percentage since so many of his missed shots would not count because he would be fouled. Nevermind the Bulls would probably score 70 points and lose by 10-12, at least he would compare more favorably to Chris Paul that way.

[chw42]

I understand you think we are all simpletons and can't understand advanced statistics, and I readily admit I am still trying to comprehend many of the new baseball statistics, so I sure as hell haven't gotten around to the basketball variety. But I feel like I've watched enough baseketball in the course of the past 27 years or so to recognize a horrible game, a really, really bad game, and whatever other outrageously negative adjective you'd like to assign to his performance, and that performance doesn't strike me as that.

 

It seems like if Derrick wanted to satisfy your idea of a good game, he could just refuse to accept the scoring load and just look to distribute and take the ball the the hoop all night. That way he'd stockpile assists, free throw attemtps, and probably shoot for a higher percentage since so many of his missed shots would not count because he would be fouled. Nevermind the Bulls would probably score 70 points and lose by 10-12, at least he would compare more favorably to Chris Paul that way.

 

Or he could stop shooting so many threes, his lowest percentage shot.

 

I want Rose to score as much as possible and to take good shots. At this point, a three pointer is not a good shot for him. In fact, it's pretty much giving up the offensive possession for nothing and giving the Hawks a nice head start on their offensive possession. It ruins the flow of our offensive game and puts us in a hole defensively every time he clunks one. The worst part is that these are usually open shots. His three point shooting is a legitimate issue that needs to be limited, if not stopped. Teams are sagging off of him daring him to shoot it right now and it's working wonderfully for the opposition.

 

I know Derrick's trying to exploit that and maybe trying to prove them wrong, but when your shot's not on, it's not on. Pick another day when it's on to shoot 8 threes. Even some of the best three point shooters in the league know when to stop. Rose doesn't seem to know when.

Edited May 5, 2011 by chw42

[chw42]

Lakers on the verge of going down 2-0.

[iamshack]

Or he could stop shooting so many threes, his lowest percentage shot.

 

I want Rose to score as much as possible and to take good shots. At this point, a three pointer is not a good shot for him. In fact, it's pretty much giving up the offensive possession for nothing and giving the Hawks a nice head start on their offensive possession. It ruins the flow of our offensive game and puts us in a hole defensively every time he clunks one. The worst part is that these are usually open shots. His three point shooting is a legitimate issue that needs to be limited, if not stopped. Teams are sagging off of him daring him to shoot it right now and it's working wonderfully for the opposition.

 

I know Derrick's trying to exploit that and maybe trying to prove them wrong, but when your shot's not on, it's not on. Pick another day when it's on to shoot 8 threes.

Yeah, I think we're all admitting that. Not one person challenging your characterization of his evening is saying Rose should have hoisted that many three point shots. What we are arguing is that those poor shots don't negate a 25/10/6 performance to "horrible."

 

I'm not sure how these efficiency statistics work, but it seems as though they are measuring performance much the same way that they do in baseball, where your offensive chances are roughly equal to the rest of the players on the team and your defensive opportunities are for the most part random. It seems to me that since your opportunities in basketball are as much defined by your other teammates as the defense, that the accuracy of these statistics would be called into question. Are these efficiency statistics weighted to reflect the skill level of the other players on your team? Is there any way they can possibly measure the contributions your inefficient attempts contribute to the rest of your performance or the performance of your teammates? Is there any correlation between Rose's attempts and the efficiency of the rest of the Bulls players?

[chw42]

Yeah, I think we're all admitting that. Not one person challenging your characterization of his evening is saying Rose should have hoisted that many three point shots. What we are arguing is that those poor shots don't negate a 25/10/6 performance to "horrible."

 

I'm not sure how these efficiency statistics work, but it seems as though they are measuring performance much the same way that they do in baseball, where your offensive chances are roughly equal to the rest of the players on the team and your defensive opportunities are for the most part random. It seems to me that since your opportunities in basketball are as much defined by your other teammates as the defense, that the accuracy of these statistics would be called into question. Are these efficiency statistics weighted to reflect the skill level of the other players on your team? Is there any way they can possibly measure the contributions your inefficient attempts contribute to the rest of your performance or the performance of your teammates? Is there any correlation between Rose's attempts and the efficiency of the rest of the Bulls players?

 

I don't know a whole lot about advanced basketball metrics myself, but I think the concept is pretty simple.

 

Limit low percentage shots, just like how outs are the prize in baseball.

 

By taking low percentage shots, you are technically giving away an offensive possession. Just like how you bunt to give an out away in baseball. Yeah, there's a chance of the shot going in, but it's nowhere near as high as a high percentage shot. Just like in baseball, where the bunt can make scoring a bit easier, but in reality, the gain in scoring probability is very small and the risk associated with failing to bunt the guy over is far larger than the reward.

 

Defensive stats in basketball kind of suck and are incredibly team-oriented and there's not many resources out there to improve that.

 

So if we interpret Rose's offensive night based on the amount of shots he missed and the amount of times he turned the ball over, he was pretty damn bad tonight.

 

I like TS% and I think Felix alludes to it a lot without directly saying it, but it's basically points scored/2(FGA + (FTA * .44)). Rose has been in the 44% range these last two games, which is absolutely terrible and that doesn't even include the 8 turnovers he threw in.

Edited May 5, 2011 by chw42

[dasox24]

hope bulls fans turn out strong in atlanta.

I'll be there for Game 3! The Hawks are doing a "white-out" so I'll definitely be wearing my red.

[iamshack]

I'll be there for Game 3! The Hawks are doing a "white-out" so I'll definitely be wearing my red.

You should be easy to spot then! Have fun and bring us home a winner!

[SoxFan1]

Rose certainly didn't have a horrible game, but it obviously wasn't a very good game either. He didn't have his 3 point shot, and it's obvious the ankle is bothering him enough that he is hesitant to take it to the rim and get shots off or draw fouls.

 

I have no complaints about his game tonight other than the turnovers. Sure, he was 1 of 8 for three, but one of those was a half-court heave and another was with the shot clock running down early. IIRC. I wouldn't count those 2. And there was also one pull-up 3 he tried when the Bulls were going on a bit of a run which I'm not upset he took at all. If he hit that 3, Bulls would have gone up big, the UC would have exploded, and ATL would have definitely taken a timeout.

 

He was forcing things up from behind the arc, but he actually shot well from inside the arc and his mid-range jumper was dropping. I'd like to see him take it to the hoop more, sure, but like I said, the ankle is definitely affecting his decision making.

[Quin]

 

[SoxFan1]

Also, if there's 1 piece missing on this Bulls roster (other than a competent starting SG), it's a 2nd scorer who can drive or create his own shot. Right now, Rose is the creator and the only one. I love the Bench Mob, but there is a reason CJ Watson is a backup. He settles for a lot of outside shots and he ins't necessarily a sniper from out there.

 

A guy like Jamal Crawford, Ben Gordon or Jason Terry would do wonders for the Bulls.

 

And obviously I'm looking forward quite a bit, but those 2 late 1st round picks could be extremely valuable either with picking players or as trade chips. I'd love to be able to get a Nolan Smith, but I don't think he'll last that long. Then again, it could be possible to trade up.

[ThunderBolt]

Also, if there's 1 piece missing on this Bulls roster (other than a competent starting SG), it's a 2nd scorer who can drive or create his own shot.

I agree 100%. The Bulls just need someone else who can handle the ball. There's not a single guy on the team other then Rose who i feel comfortable dribbling the ball for more then five seconds (And that number drops to about two for Deng). Teams like the Thunder (Maynor) and the Grizzlies (Vazquez) have benefited tremdously from just having a second facilitator and the Bulls need this as well.

[Quin]

Also, if there's 1 piece missing on this Bulls roster (other than a competent starting SG), it's a 2nd scorer who can drive or create his own shot. Right now, Rose is the creator and the only one. I love the Bench Mob, but there is a reason CJ Watson is a backup. He settles for a lot of outside shots and he ins't necessarily a sniper from out there.

 

A guy like Jamal Crawford, Ben Gordon or Jason Terry would do wonders for the Bulls.

 

And obviously I'm looking forward quite a bit, but those 2 late 1st round picks could be extremely valuable either with picking players or as trade chips. I'd love to be able to get a Nolan Smith, but I don't think he'll last that long. Then again, it could be possible to trade up.

 

I'd try and package CJ, Bogans/Pargo/Lucas, and a pick for Kirk.

 

Bring him back, start him at the 2 and have him be backup point. Under Thibs, he'd be good defensively as always, takes pressure off Rose for ball handling, and can still shoot the 3 (.371 next to Rose starting last year, .399 this year next to Wall and Joe Johnson).

 

Rotation becomes this:

 

Rose(38)/Hinrich(10)

Hinrich(15)/Brewer(20)/Korver(13)

Deng(38)/Korver(10)

Boozer(30)/Gibson(18)

Noah(36)/Asik(12)

 

Use the 30th/28th pick on a sharpshooter and call it a day.

 

 

[SleepyWhiteSox]

[JorgeFabregas]

I'd try and package CJ, Bogans/Pargo/Lucas, and a pick for Kirk.

 

Bring him back, start him at the 2 and have him be backup point. Under Thibs, he'd be good defensively as always, takes pressure off Rose for ball handling, and can still shoot the 3 (.371 next to Rose starting last year, .399 this year next to Wall and Joe Johnson).

 

Rotation becomes this:

 

Rose(38)/Hinrich(10)

Hinrich(15)/Brewer(20)/Korver(13)

Deng(38)/Korver(10)

Boozer(30)/Gibson(18)

Noah(36)/Asik(12)

 

Use the 30th/28th pick on a sharpshooter and call it a day.

As effective as Hinrich is at dribbling the ball endlessly, you're still talking about a defensively-oriented player. He's probably not more valuable than the pair of Bogans and Watson, costs more (I'm guessing), and the pick would just kind of seal the deal on the bad trade. Hinrich is certainly a good role player, but that's not a role that the Bulls need to fill.

Edited May 5, 2011 by JorgeFabregas

[iamshack]

Good article by Wilbon on Mr Rose's game 2 performance.

 

Click me!

[DBAHO]

Suprised Wilbon didn't fit in a little shot at SVG in that article.

 

Atlanta simply needs to get better production from Horford, Smith and Crawford.

 

I'd have the least confidence in Smith out of those 3 actually, and he's probably got the best matchup to exploit defensively in Boozer.

 

I think Atlanta would be pretty content where they are, and Noah hands down beat Horford today, I think Atlanta would back in Horford to come out strong and rebound in game 3.

 

I had a friend who's a Lakers fan down here who put $150 on OKC to win yesterday, and then decided to match that bet on the Lakers today. I think it's time Dirk started getting some national love, some of the jumpers he was hitting today were fantastic to watch. And that team on paper you wouldn't bet on against the Lakers, but Rick Carlisle is doing a very good job there.

[Jordan4life_2007]

Suprised Wilbon didn't fit in a little shot at SVG in that article.

 

Atlanta simply needs to get better production from Horford, Smith and Crawford.

 

I'd have the least confidence in Smith out of those 3 actually, and he's probably got the best matchup to exploit defensively in Boozer.

 

I think Atlanta would be pretty content where they are, and Noah hands down beat Horford today, I think Atlanta would back in Horford to come out strong and rebound in game 3.

 

I had a friend who's a Lakers fan down here who put $150 on OKC to win yesterday, and then decided to match that bet on the Lakers today. I think it's time Dirk started getting some national love, some of the jumpers he was hitting today were fantastic to watch. And that team on paper you wouldn't bet on against the Lakers, but Rick Carlisle is doing a very good job there.

 

Dirk is one of the most truly unique players to ever play the game. I don't think there's ever been anybody like him.

[southsider2k5]

He's been doing it a lot more in the playoffs than I saw him doing it in the regular season. Then, he was making them at a decent clip, now he's just bricking. I want to taser his ass when he does that.

 

I think he just expects so much of himself that he feels like he has to be dazzling and score 40 every game to win, when he doesn't. He ends up trying to do way too much because he wants to be a hero so he doesn't get the other guys involved in the offense, and starts making sloppy passes and chucking up threes and long jumpers he doesn't need to take. There are other guys who can take those threes and are better at it than Rose, Bogans and Deng, but Rose thinks he has to score a flurry of points all by himself. He didn't get the MVP playing this way, it was natural instinct and aggressiveness. Right now he just needs to relax and feel the game.

 

He's 22 but because of what we've seen we assume that he handles everything like a veteran, but all of this is new to him.

 

With his ankle hurt he doesn't have his usual lift and explosion. He is shooting much more with his back and arms, which makes it much more erratic.

[southsider2k5]

He's mentally wrecked at this point. I blame this on Kwame Brown.

 

Boozer's toe is really slowing him down and having the effect on his game as Rose's ankle is on his. I'd like to see some people here just get out of bed, let alone do what these guys are doing with these injuries.

[southsider2k5]

Also, if there's 1 piece missing on this Bulls roster (other than a competent starting SG), it's a 2nd scorer who can drive or create his own shot. Right now, Rose is the creator and the only one. I love the Bench Mob, but there is a reason CJ Watson is a backup. He settles for a lot of outside shots and he ins't necessarily a sniper from out there.

 

A guy like Jamal Crawford, Ben Gordon or Jason Terry would do wonders for the Bulls.

 

And obviously I'm looking forward quite a bit, but those 2 late 1st round picks could be extremely valuable either with picking players or as trade chips. I'd love to be able to get a Nolan Smith, but I don't think he'll last that long. Then again, it could be possible to trade up.

 

With the strip down the Bulls had to do to get into the free agent chance, it is understandable. Right now we have to wait and see what the cap does before we worry too much about the next piece.

[DukeNukeEm]

Agreed ss2k5, they're trying to battle through these injuries the best they can. I dont even think Boozer is playing all that poorly considering, I'll gladly take 11 boards and he had a nice scoring burst in the 2nd quarter that cushioned the teams halftime lead.

 

It doesn't help when airhead fans compulsively mention how much a player is paid in the 2nd round of the NBA playoffs, as if that has any bearing on what the team is trying to do right now.

[DBAHO]

Dirk is one of the most truly unique players to ever play the game. I don't think there's ever been anybody like him.

Yep definitely. And I think he's certainly much more of a leader on that team now, definitely more so than when they lost to GS in the 1st round about 4-5 years back.

[Balta1701]

Agreed ss2k5, they're trying to battle through these injuries the best they can. I dont even think Boozer is playing all that poorly considering, I'll gladly take 11 boards and he had a nice scoring burst in the 2nd quarter that cushioned the teams halftime lead.

 

It doesn't help when airhead fans compulsively mention how much a player is paid in the 2nd round of the NBA playoffs, as if that has any bearing on what the team is trying to do right now.

The problem DNE, is that this is exactly what the story was on Boozer coming out of Utah. Always injured, only 100% for about 40 games in the regular season, disappears in the playoffs no matter what.

[Balta1701]

As effective as Hinrich is at dribbling the ball endlessly, you're still talking about a defensively-oriented player. He's probably not more valuable than the pair of Bogans and Watson, costs more (I'm guessing), and the pick would just kind of seal the deal on the bad trade. Hinrich is certainly a good role player, but that's not a role that the Bulls need to fill.

Hinrich would be a solid fit for the Bulls right now. Really solid.

[DukeNukeEm]

The problem DNE, is that this is exactly what the story was on Boozer coming out of Utah. Always injured, only 100% for about 40 games in the regular season, disappears in the playoffs no matter what.

But he hasnt disappeared in the playoffs. Maybe if you factor in expectations at the beginning of the season he's letting down in these games, but its not like hes a total non-factor out there.