Votto may be available...Seriously.

[southsider2k5]

I'd probably do Votto for Beckham. If Alonso is any good that's a deal that actually makes sense for the Reds by filling their SS hole.

 

If that was it, I'd do it twice.

[nitetrain8601]

Danks and CQ do not equal anything you want. It's only a start for top tier players like Votto. Heck, you're better off trying to pick up Alonso.

[chw42]

It doesn't matter. People want Dunn's horrible defense and high strikeout totals at one of the more important positions. Manny played left field forever. I'm not arguing that Carlos is HOF worthy but a guy who can hit 40 HRs and drive in 100 can find a place to play. Carlos has the potential to do that every year, you can't argue that. Whether he can do that or not is the gamble that GMs might want to take, defense aside. There are plenty of butchers at plenty of positions on every team. It's part of the game.

 

We harp on AJs horrible defense but yet he's had a job here for 6 years because of "intangibles". Carlos has tangibles.

 

We trotted Carlos Lee out there for years. Isn't Ryan Braun a butcher? Ethier...butcher.

 

Dunn is a much better hitter than Quentin though. And I mean MUCH better. Potential is one thing, ability to perform is another.

 

And first base might be important, but it's not all that valuable. It's one of the easier positions to fill because you can stick just about anyone there and they'll live.

[Dick Allen]

Dunn is a much better hitter than Quentin though. And I mean MUCH better. Potential is one thing, ability to perform is another.

 

And first base might be important, but it's not all that valuable. It's one of the easier positions to fill because you can stick just about anyone there and they'll live.

Much better? Have you looked at the numbers? Quentin actually has a higher lifetime average and is trailing in OBP by .034. He also strikes out about 100 times less a season. Dunn is a better hitter, but not by much and it wouldn't be surprising if Quentin is the better hitter in the next couple of seasons.

 

Its amazing the fascination this board has with players who perform about the same or worse for other teams. Jim Thome was hated around here. Dunn gets on base less, hits about the same amount of homers, strikes out even more, and actually will play a position horribly which is actually worse than being a DH where the lack of defensive prowess, regardless of what Ozzie thinks, won't hurt you.

[LittleHurt05]

Much better? Have you looked at the numbers? Quentin actually has a higher lifetime average and is trailing in OBP by .034. He also strikes out about 100 times less a season. Dunn is a better hitter, but not by much and it wouldn't be surprising if Quentin is the better hitter in the next couple of seasons.

 

You are missing one key fact there. In the past three seasons, Quentin has hit 35 homers, .250 AVG, .350 OBP only once, and that all came in 2008.

 

Dunn has hit at least 38 homers & had a OBP > .350 each of the last 8 seasons. In 4 of those years he even hit .250 batting average.

 

Who are you gonna trust? Quentin has done it once and has a history of injury problems. Dunn has done nothing but rake and get on base (and butcher in the field) for 8 straight years.

[chw42]

Much better? Have you looked at the numbers? Quentin actually has a higher lifetime average and is trailing in OBP by .034. He also strikes out about 100 times less a season. Dunn is a better hitter, but not by much and it wouldn't be surprising if Quentin is the better hitter in the next couple of seasons.

 

Its amazing the fascination this board has with players who perform about the same or worse for other teams. Jim Thome was hated around here. Dunn gets on base less, hits about the same amount of homers, strikes out even more, and actually will play a position horribly which is actually worse than being a DH where the lack of defensive prowess, regardless of what Ozzie thinks, won't hurt you.

 

A .034 OBP is the difference between a bad hitter and a mediocre hitter and a mediocre hitter and a good hitter. I can go on and on. Point being, that is a pretty big difference.

 

Plus, you totally forgot to mention slugging percentage, which is at .521 for Dunn in comparison to Quentin's .488.

 

Point being, Quentin may have the potential to be better than Dunn, but he's only shown it once and in spurts. He also has a injury issue and is incredibly inconsistent. Compare that to Dunn, who has been producing at a very good and stable rate for most of the past decade and you really don't have much of a comparison.

[DirtySox]

The "seriously" should not be in this thread title. Votto is going nowhere.

[SoxAce]

The "seriously" should not be in this thread title. Votto is going nowhere.

 

FYI. They "tested the waters" with him last year in the off-season. That of course was before he went completely nuts this year.

[Jordan4life_2007]

A .034 OBP is the difference between a bad hitter and a mediocre hitter and a mediocre hitter and a good hitter. I can go on and on. Point being, that is a pretty big difference.

 

Plus, you totally forgot to mention slugging percentage, which is at .521 for Dunn in comparison to Quentin's .488.

 

Point being, Quentin may have the potential to be better than Dunn, but he's only shown it once and in spurts. He also has a injury issue and is incredibly inconsistent. Compare that to Dunn, who has been producing at a very good and stable rate for most of the past decade and you really don't have much of a comparison.

 

Adam Dunn has averaged 40 HRs and 101 RBIs the last 7 years. A slash line of .253/.381/.533/.914 during those same 7 years. He's one of the surest things in baseball. CQ has one great year on his resume. There's no comparison.

[Dick Allen]

A .034 OBP is the difference between a bad hitter and a mediocre hitter and a mediocre hitter and a good hitter. I can go on and on. Point being, that is a pretty big difference.

 

Plus, you totally forgot to mention slugging percentage, which is at .521 for Dunn in comparison to Quentin's .488.

 

Point being, Quentin may have the potential to be better than Dunn, but he's only shown it once and in spurts. He also has a injury issue and is incredibly inconsistent. Compare that to Dunn, who has been producing at a very good and stable rate for most of the past decade and you really don't have much of a comparison.

Adam Dunn consistent? Maybe at the end of the day, but 2010 was the tale of 2 halfs.

 

 

Split G GS PA AB R H 2B 3B HR RBI SB CS BB SO BA OBP SLG OPS TB GDP HBP SH SF IBB ROE BAbip tOPS+ sOPS+

1st Half 88 86 366 320 51 92 26 2 22 59 0 0 40 108 .288 .372 .588 .959 188 2 4 0 2 6 2 .365 114 158

2nd Half 70 67 282 238 34 53 10 0 16 44 0 1 37 91 .223 .337 .466 .803 111 8 5 0 2 4 2 .278 82 122

 

 

Nothing too consistent there other than he was consistently great the first half and consistenty awful the second.

 

He gets on base 17 more times per 500 AB, so 3 times more a month. Its really not huge. If Quentin rebounds back to 2008, he's better. If he doesn't he's worse, but really not $10 million a year worse. Plus he hit 30. I don't know how many 285 pounders continue to produce at the same level as they did in their 20's. Some have remained productive, Frank Thomas, but I don't know of many more. Dunn was about as awful the second half of 2010 as any White Sox hitter, although he popped a few homers. There's a lot of red flags with this guy. If the Sox signed him and he was a bust, however, I'm sure it would be a certain coach's fault.

Edited October 14, 2010 by Dick Allen

[chw42]

He gets on base 17 more times per 500 AB, so 3 times more a month. Its really not huge. If Quentin rebounds back to 2008, he's better. If he doesn't he's worse, but really not $10 million a year worse. Plus he hit 30. I don't know how many 285 pounders continue to produce at the same level as they did in their 20's. Some have remained productive, Frank Thomas, but I don't know of many more. Dunn was about as awful the second half of 2010 as any White Sox hitter, although he popped a few homers. There's a lot of red flags with this guy. If the Sox signed him and he was a bust, however, I'm sure it would be a certain coach's fault.

 

If you think about it that way, then a .300 hitter isn't much better than a .250 hitter since the difference between them is only 25 hits per 500 ABs. And he'd only get maybe one more hit per week.

 

But obviously, that .300 hitter is a hell of a lot better than the .250 hitter (assuming they do everything else similarly).

 

And as bad as Dunn was in the second half, he still managed a .803 OPS in the second half. His .337 OBP and .466 SLG aren't Adam Dunn good, but they were still pretty good.

 

Plus, with the way Dunn's season went (he had a really high BABIP for a majority of the first half), you really expected his luck to falter sooner or later. His second half swoon had more to do with the law of averages than his inability to hit. And as you said, he did hit his fair share of homers, even with a poor OPS for him.

Edited October 14, 2010 by chw42

[Dick Allen]

If you think about it that way, then a .300 hitter isn't much better than a .250 hitter since the difference between them is only 25 hits per 500 ABs. And he'd only get maybe one more hit per week.

 

But obviously, that .300 hitter is a hell of a lot better than the .250 hitter (assuming they do everything else similarly).

 

And as bad as Dunn was in the second half, he still managed a .803 OPS in the second half. His .337 OBP and .466 SLG aren't Adam Dunn good, but they were still pretty good.

 

Plus, with the way Dunn's season went (he had a really high BABIP for a majority of the first half), you really expected his luck to falter sooner or later. His second half swoon had more to do with the law of averages than his inability to hit. And as you said, he did hit his fair share of homers, even with a poor OPS for him.

Yes but hits, regardless of what some sab guys will tell you are different from walks. What Dunn gives you is the same amount of hits as Quentin. He just walks 3 times a month more, so really no RBI chance without the bases being loaded. Plus, Dunn doesn't run very well anymore, so those 3 walks a month really doesn't add all that much considering you're talking an extra 100 strikeouts per season.You made it seem like they are nowhere near close. I disagree, and think the difference in salaries would make me think Quentin plus $10 million in other players is a significantly better option.

Edited October 14, 2010 by Dick Allen

[Jordan4life_2007]

Yes but hits, regardless of what some sab guys will tell you are different from walks. What Dunn gives you is the same amount of hits as Quentin. He just walks 3 times a month more, so really no RBI chance without the bases being loaded. Plus, Dunn doesn't run very well anymore, so those 3 walks a month really doesn't add all that much considering you're talking an extra 100 strikeouts per season.You made it seem like they are nowhere near close. I disagree, and think the difference in salaries would make me think Quentin plus $10 million in other players is a significantly better option.

 

I don't get where you're coming from. You're seriously comparing Dunn's resume with Quentin's? You can pretty much pencil in Dunn at .250/40/100/.380/.520/.900 and not think twice about it. CQ has one great year to his credit. It's not close.

[Dick Allen]

I don't get where you're coming from. You're seriously comparing Dunn's resume with Quentin's? You can pretty much pencil in Dunn at .250/40/100/.380/.520/.900 and not think twice about it. CQ has one great year to his credit. It's not close.

Pencil it in all you want. We'll see what happens. As I said before Dunn is the better hitter, but its really not by as much as you think. Maybe he will continue to put up the splits you suggest, maybe not. Thome did and was hated, not worth bringing back for $1.5 million. People will be doing cartwheels if the Sox signed Dunn for $15 million a year. IMO, its a collossal waste of money. Their production is pretty similar per 162, even with Quentin only having one big year.

Edited October 14, 2010 by Dick Allen

[Jordan4life_2007]

Pencil it in all you want. We'll see what happens. As I said before Dunn is the better hitter, but its really not by as much as you think. Maybe he will continue to put up the splits you suggest, maybe not. Thome did and was hated, not worth bringing back for $1.5 million. People will be doing cartwheels if the Sox signed Dunn for $15 million a year. IMO, its a collossal waste of money. Their production is pretty similar per 162, even with Quentin only having one big year.

 

I wouldn't. Not at 15 million a year. Not with all the other financial obligations we have. I agree with you there. But Dunn is and has been one of the premier sluggers in baseball for the last 7 years.

[Dick Allen]

I wouldn't. Not at 15 million a year. Not with all the other financial obligations we have. I agree with you there. But Dunn is and has been one of the premier sluggers in baseball for the last 7 years.

Money is a big part of it, especially if its the White Sox and not the Yankees or Boston. Quentin made $3.2 million this year, and a lot of this board hated him. They want him gone. Dunn gives you a little bit more than Quentin did this year. About 10 more homers, about .050 in OBP, he hit about .020 better and about 100 more strikeouts. As much as several here say they would love him, he would be quickly turned on, especially considering the kind of money he's going to make. Thome hit a lot of homers with the Sox, yet people were doing cartwheels when he left. Dunn offensively isn't too much different from what Thome gave you with the Sox his last 3 seasons. Edwin Jackson, pro-rated, had the best numbers of any Sox pitcher, yet people around here are crying about his $8.5 million price tag.

[witesoxfan]

I can't speak for anybody else, but I don't want Quentin gone. I just want them to remove him from the outfield, because he hurts the team out there.

[sircaffey]

I don't get where you're coming from. You're seriously comparing Dunn's resume with Quentin's? You can pretty much pencil in Dunn at .250/40/100/.380/.520/.900 and not think twice about it. CQ has one great year to his credit. It's not close.

And basically all of that is vs RHP. Dunn performs at a level vs RHP that very few hitters do. That's why you get him.

[Balta1701]

I can't speak for anybody else, but I don't want Quentin gone. I just want them to remove him from the outfield, because he hurts the team out there.

I really don't want the 2008 Quentin to be gone. Such an incredible performance.

 

I seriously worry he's already gone though. I have zero interest to see the 2010 Quentin again.

[chw42]

Yes but hits, regardless of what some sab guys will tell you are different from walks. What Dunn gives you is the same amount of hits as Quentin. He just walks 3 times a month more, so really no RBI chance without the bases being loaded. Plus, Dunn doesn't run very well anymore, so those 3 walks a month really doesn't add all that much considering you're talking an extra 100 strikeouts per season.You made it seem like they are nowhere near close. I disagree, and think the difference in salaries would make me think Quentin plus $10 million in other players is a significantly better option.

Who said walks are better than hits?

 

Quentin will also get a raise in arbitration. Especially with his home run and RBI numbers.

Edited October 15, 2010 by chw42

[chw42]

Money is a big part of it, especially if its the White Sox and not the Yankees or Boston. Quentin made $3.2 million this year, and a lot of this board hated him. They want him gone. Dunn gives you a little bit more than Quentin did this year. About 10 more homers, about .050 in OBP, he hit about .020 better and about 100 more strikeouts. As much as several here say they would love him, he would be quickly turned on, especially considering the kind of money he's going to make. Thome hit a lot of homers with the Sox, yet people were doing cartwheels when he left. Dunn offensively isn't too much different from what Thome gave you with the Sox his last 3 seasons. Edwin Jackson, pro-rated, had the best numbers of any Sox pitcher, yet people around here are crying about his $8.5 million price tag.

 

Dunn created 45 batting runs last year in a pretty neutral park.

Quentin created 12.4.

 

The difference in their offensive production is about 3 win shares. That's quite the difference.

[Dick Allen]

Dunn created 45 batting runs last year in a pretty neutral park.

Quentin created 12.4.

 

The difference in their offensive production is about 3 win shares. That's quite the difference.

Dunn had about 110 more plate appearances than Quentin in 2010. If Quentin continued the pace he was on and had 110 more plate appearances, he would have hit another 5 doubles and 5 homers, so he would have wound up with about 5 less doubles and 7 less homers than Dunn while scoring more runs and driving in the same amount, and that was horrible, must get rid of Carlos Quentin. It still would have been 30+ homers and 100+RBI. Using the park factor doesn't really qualify with Dunn. He's also played in bandboxes and put up the same numbers.

 

Don't get me wrong, I'm not saying Dunn sucks or anything. He's just not worth what he's going to be paid at least to the White Sox. I would much rather pay Quentin $5 million than Dunn the probably $15 million a year he will command.

Edited October 15, 2010 by Dick Allen

[Jerksticks]

Is it safe to say Quentin will be the cheapest 30 HR 100 RBI guy in the league next year? No longer Votto, he's gonna make a ton of cash.

[Balta1701]

Is it safe to say Quentin will be the cheapest 30 HR 100 RBI guy in the league next year? No longer Votto, he's gonna make a ton of cash.

Couple problems with that. First of all, Quentin hasn't gotten to 30/100 since 2008, and he's never gotten more than exactly 100 RBI in a season, so there's certainly no guarantee that he'll get there next year.

 

Second...There are a lot of guys who have come up who might well argue with that number while still being pre-arb. Mike Stanton. Carlos Santana. Buster Posey. Jason Heyward. Then you can start adding names who if they have a really good year could get there. Jay Bruce (Super 2). Chris Carter. Pedro Alvarez. Justin Smoak. Hell, Gordon Beckham could go crazy and do it.

[Jerksticks]

Couple problems with that. First of all, Quentin hasn't gotten to 30/100 since 2008, and he's never gotten more than exactly 100 RBI in a season, so there's certainly no guarantee that he'll get there next year.

 

Second...There are a lot of guys who have come up who might well argue with that number while still being pre-arb. Mike Stanton. Carlos Santana. Buster Posey. Jason Heyward. Then you can start adding names who if they have a really good year could get there. Jay Bruce (Super 2). Chris Carter. Pedro Alvarez. Justin Smoak. Hell, Gordon Beckham could go crazy and do it.

 

I like your list except for Smoak but I get your point. So how can we make a list of all the guys likely to hit around 30 HRs and their projected salaries for 2011? Maybe there's 1-2 guys on each team. Would it be generous to say 60 guys in the league have that potential next year? I feel it may be far less thus increasing Quentin's value (especially for the price).

 

I just fail to see how Quentin is just a replacement-level player when so many defensive butchers have high salaries. I think it might have something to do with power and RBI potential outweighing defense.

 

Edit: I'm not saying I like Quentin's defense; I hate it.

Edited October 15, 2010 by Jerksticks