Edwin Jackson Megathread...

[southsideirish71]

Best case right now would be that we extend Jackson another year over the winter, for a reasonable price, and he dominates for 2 years with us.

 

Boras doesn't do one year deals, unless they have no play what so ever and thats only to ramp up their value. Boras will do whatever he can to get Edwin to FA.

 

 

[Jordan4life_2007]

The Dodgers rushed him and then gave up on him. The Rays had confidence and Jackson improved tremendously under them, but it made no sense to pay Jackson through the arb system when they had so much top-level pitching coming up the pipeline (an extremely uncommon situation in MLB BTW). The Tigers got him and Jackson continued to get better there as well, but the Tigers were up to their necks in bad contracts and had to cut salary somewhere, so they traded him and Granderson since they couldn't just dump Magglio, Robertson, Bonderman, etc. on anyone. Jackson got better and better until his first half in AZ, and then they went into salary destructo mode and were still able to trade him for a big return after giving up a lot to get him in the first place

 

I don't think confidence is really the issue here. It's very rare to see the type of young pitching depth the Rays have and had at the time, and then the other two deals were made when ownership mandated a cut in payroll. Saying Jackson was moved because of a lack of confidence is just an assumption, however we know KW was shot down on several Hudson deals because a lot of other evaluators didn't think the ceiling was there. Ceiling was never a question with Jackson.

 

The Dodgers drafted him in '01 and he didn't make his ML debut until 2003. So I don't know how you can say they "rushed" him. Now they probably gave up on him too quickly, as he only pitched 75.1 innings for them (a 5.50 ERA during that time), but they certainly didn't rush him. Your reasoning for the Tigers trading him makes no sense because the same off-season that the Tigers were supposedly shedding payroll they added $15 million in Damon/Valverde. The Rays? I can buy the surplus explanation. Although it's not like he did much while he was there. And then he obviously sucked with Arizona. So there's really no way to spin the fact that this supposed great talent with all this potential has been traded 4 times in the last 4 years into a positive.

 

And what deals do we "know" involved Hudson were shot down by other teams? You've said this more than once yet haven't provided anything to support this.

 

 

The guys Coop can't help more often than not seem helpless in the first place. David Aarrrrrrrrrrrrrrdsma still sucks for example.

 

 

So let's ignore the fact that Aardsma has a 2.90 ERA, 9.6 K/9 and 144 era+ the last two years? He's certainly not elite. But considering he's made just over 3 million the last two years, I'd say the Mariners have gotten pretty good value. How about Nick Masset? All he's done the last two years is post a 2.89 ERA, 9.1 K/9 and an ERA+ of 142. And I'm shocked you of all people haven't mentioned the complete bust that has been Tony Pena. Don Cooper is getting pretty overrated. He's good but the hype is ridiculous. We basically got a year and a half of dominant pitching from Contreras. A failed reliever that's turned elite (give him big props there). And Gavin Floyd. Not saying that's nothing. But he's not the messiah of pitching coaches, either.

Edited October 14, 2010 by Jordan4life

[balfanman]

What does it matter what Jackson did in Arizona? So he doesn't play well for teams that are awful and under no pressure.

 

Jackson pitched well here, in pressure, in the AL. Hudson, in a small sample size, did not.

 

But please do not presume to tell all of us that pitching in the NL, under ZERO pressure, is like pitching on a winning team in the AL that is going for the playoffs. It is not. Lots of players do well in September when nothing is on the line.

 

Let me first state that overall I'm still all for the Jackson trade; at least we went for it. That being said, my point has to do with the bolded part above.

 

I know that for the most over the last many years the A. L. has been much more dominant than the N. L. However, over the last year or so hasn't the N. L. caught up with the A L. as far as overall talent? There seems to be some pretty good pitching and hitting going on in the N L. lately. Other than the D.H., which most A. L. teams have (other than the Sox), is it really that much tougher to pitch in the A. L. anymore?

[Jordan4life_2007]

Let me first state that overall I'm still all for the Jackson trade; at least we went for it. That being said, my point has to do with the bolded part above.

 

I know that for the most over the last many years the A. L. has been much more dominant than the N. L. However, over the last year or so hasn't the N. L. caught up with the A L. as far as overall talent? There seems to be some pretty good pitching and hitting going on in the N L. lately. Other than the D.H., which most A. L. teams have (other than the Sox), is it really that much tougher to pitch in the A. L. anymore?

 

The pitching is every bit as good, if not better, than in the AL. Lineups are typically better 7-9 in the AL compared to the NL. That's the main difference. But some act like the difference between the AL and NL is the difference between AA and the majors. It's gotten really annoying and has pretty much become a crutch for fans of AL teams to use to pigeon hole NL players.

[witesoxfan]

The pitching is every bit as good, if not better, than in the AL. Lineups are typically better 7-9 in the AL compared to the NL. That's the main difference. But some act like the difference between the AL and NL is the difference between AA and the majors. It's gotten really annoying and has pretty much become a crutch for fans of AL teams to use to pigeon hole NL players.

 

I also think a huge difference between the leagues is at the bottom of the leagues. I'd say that the 5 worst teams in the NL are far worse than the 5 worst teams in the AL. If you want to compare the 5 best teams in the AL to the 5 best teams in the NL, I'd say it's pretty much a wash.

[Balta1701]

Agreed. People also forget that Kenny wasn't just planning to acquire Jackson, that he intended to flip him and that didn't happen. It is what it is. I'm looking forward to him pitching in 2011.

Bah, this is one of the weakest arguments in the bunch.

 

If KW got stuck with Edwin Jackson and didn't actually want him because he misread another GM, then that should be a fireable offense. If you're going to trade for Edwin Jackson, yes, you might be open to dealing him again if another team offers a better offer, but there's no reason to finalize the deal with Arizona if you didn't actually want to accept the guy. You can wait until Washington gives the yay or nay before pulling the trigger and send it in as a 3 way deal. "Kenny really didn't want Jackson but he got stuck with him" is not a defense of KW, it's an indictment.

[Soxbadger]

For whatever reason the Sox werent confident in Hudson's ability.

 

Wait, strike that.

 

For whatever reason most of MLB was not confident in Hudson's ability.

 

If other teams thought Hudson was as good as he performed post trade, dont you think teams would have been busting down Kenny's door for the guy? Dont you imagine that the Nationals would have been willing to trade Dunn for him?

 

Im not going to fault Kenny & Co. for this one. Strange things happen after trades.

[gatnom]

For whatever reason the Sox werent confident in Hudson's ability.

 

Wait, strike that.

 

For whatever reason most of MLB was not confident in Hudson's ability.

 

If other teams thought Hudson was as good as he performed post trade, dont you think teams would have been busting down Kenny's door for the guy? Dont you imagine that the Nationals would have been willing to trade Dunn for him?

 

Im not going to fault Kenny & Co. for this one. Strange things happen after trades.

 

I know this is going to come off a little harsh, but do you plan on backing up any of these claims? How do you know what the rest of the league thought of him? How do you know the nationals wouldn't have wanted him in a deal for Dunn? Couldn't it be possible that the Diamondbacks just didn't like our prospects, but KW wanted his guy so he sold low anyways? He isn't infallible.

 

Also, Hudson doesn't need to be as good as he was this season to tremendously outvalue Jackson. A dirt cheap middle of the rotation starter has quite a bit of value.

[Soxbadger]

I know this is going to come off a little harsh, but do you plan on backing up any of these claims? How do you know what the rest of the league thought of him? How do you know the nationals wouldn't have wanted him in a deal for Dunn? Couldn't it be possible that the Diamondbacks just didn't like our prospects, but KW wanted his guy so he sold low anyways? He isn't infallible.

 

Also, Hudson doesn't need to be as good as he was this season to tremendously outvalue Jackson. A dirt cheap middle of the rotation starter has quite a bit of value.

 

Doesnt come off harsh. I dont know beyond a reasonable doubt, but Im pretty sure using deduction and rationalization I can come to those conclusions.

 

1) How do I know what the rest of the league thought of him?

 

Well that is simple enough.

 

In 2010 Hudson was rated as the 3rd best prospect in the Sox minor league system. (http://www.baseballamerica.com/today/prosp...010/269333.html)

 

Furthermore at the start of the season, Hudson was considered the 66th best prospect in baseball with a grade of 65.

 

66 DAN

HUDSON RHP, WHITE SOX

Best Tool: Command.

BA Grade: 65.

Opening

Day Age: 23 ETA: 2010

 

Now to the deduction and argument.

 

KW has been/is one of the most aggressive GM's in baseball. Based on this, I believe that KW called as many teams as possible concerning Hudson and using Hudson to bring in talent to the White Sox. Based on the fact that KW was only able to get Edwin Jackson, I believe that Jackson was the highest price any other team was willing to pay. The highest price any other team was willing to pay, is the value of Hudson on the open market.

 

As for the Nationals, how do I know that they didnt want Hudson straight up for Dunn? Well it assumes that KW valued Dunn over Jackson, and that KW wanted Dunn over Jackson. If those are true, then it is likely that KW offered Hudson for Dunn. The fact that Dunn was not traded for Hudson suggests that the Nationals valued Dunn more than Hudson. If Hudson was > Dunn in the eyes of the Nationals, they would have made the deal. The only other conclusion is that the Sox believed that Jackson > Dunn and therefore trading Hudson for Jackson was actually getting the highest possible value.

 

It could be possible that Diamondbacks didnt want any other spect than Hudson and that Jackson was "KW's guy", that just doesnt make a lot of sense in the grand scheme of things. From all accounts the White Sox #1 priority was offense. The fact that Hudson was traded for pitching not offense, seems to suggest that KW could not get an offensive player who had more value than Jackson, so he made the trade for Jackson to maximize value for Hudson.

 

As for dirt cheap middle of the rotation starter, sure those are great if your aspiring to be Kansas City or Cleveland. If you want to win a World Series ring, you need some one who can potentially dominate in the playoffs. Jackson had the stuff to be dominant. If you are going to be a contender you some times have to give up on unproven prospects for a chance to win that season. Its the nature of trading.

[Jordan4life_2007]

I know this is going to come off a little harsh, but do you plan on backing up any of these claims? How do you know what the rest of the league thought of him? How do you know the nationals wouldn't have wanted him in a deal for Dunn? Couldn't it be possible that the Diamondbacks just didn't like our prospects, but KW wanted his guy so he sold low anyways? He isn't infallible.

 

Also, Hudson doesn't need to be as good as he was this season to tremendously outvalue Jackson. A dirt cheap middle of the rotation starter has quite a bit of value.

 

Preach. I don't know how many times it has to be said. It's not about Hudson becoming the next Strasburg. The game has changed. It's not about how much you spend, but how you allocate what you spend. We have way too many holes on this roster for a $100 million dollar payroll. I've never said I wanted a Baseball America all-star team. But until this organization realizes that you have to be able to filter in some cheap/controllable talent from within onto the ML roster, will continue to lag behind the the elite teams in the AL.

[southsider2k5]

Preach. I don't know how many times it has to be said. It's not about Hudson becoming the next Strasburg. The game has changed. It's not about how much you spend, but how you allocate what you spend. We have way too many holes on this roster for a $100 million dollar payroll. I've never said I wanted a Baseball America all-star team. But until this organization realizes that you have to be able to filter in some cheap/controllable talent from within onto the ML roster, will continue to lag behind the the elite teams in the AL.

 

I keep hearing this, but how many complete $100 million teams are out there?

[Jordan4life_2007]

I keep hearing this, but how many complete $100 million teams are out there?

 

How do you define complete? I'm not asking for a perfect 25-man roster. But when I see a team that at the moment has no 1B, C, DH, 3B, 4 arbitration eligible players and horrid contracts like Linebrink and Teahen, I think it's safe to say this this team is not allocating their funds real well.

[Soxbadger]

Preach. I don't know how many times it has to be said. It's not about Hudson becoming the next Strasburg. The game has changed. It's not about how much you spend, but how you allocate what you spend. We have way too many holes on this roster for a $100 million dollar payroll. I've never said I wanted a Baseball America all-star team. But until this organization realizes that you have to be able to filter in some cheap/controllable talent from within onto the ML roster, will continue to lag behind the the elite teams in the AL.

 

The Sox have filtered in controllable talent.

 

Paul Konerko, Gordon Beckham, Alexei Ramirez, CQ, Mark Buerhle, Gavin Floyd, Matt Thornton, Bobby Jenks

 

Almost a 1/3 of their roster was brought in cheaply. The problem is that if you bring in cheap guys who are good, they dont stay cheap forever. Its the problem with being successful, people want more money.

 

There are 4 teams left in the playoffs shockingly 3 of the 4 have payrolls near $100mil or far in excess.

 

[southsider2k5]

How do you define complete? I'm not asking for a perfect 25-man roster. But when I see a team that at the moment has no 1B, C, DH, 3B, 4 arbitration eligible players and horrid contracts like Linebrink and Teahen, I think it's safe to say this this team is not allocating their funds real well.

 

I'm not familiar with all teams in detail, but I can't imagine not being able to do the same sorts of things with teams in the same payroll range. And to be fair, once you takeaway the free agents, this isn't a $100 million team anymore. I think it was something more like $80 to $85 million IIRC.

[Jordan4life_2007]

The Sox have filtered in controllable talent.

 

Paul Konerko, Gordon Beckham, Alexei Ramirez, CQ, Mark Buerhle, Gavin Floyd, Matt Thornton, Bobby Jenks

 

Almost a 1/3 of their roster was brought in cheaply. The problem is that if you bring in cheap guys who are good, they dont stay cheap forever. Its the problem with being successful, people want more money.

 

There are 4 teams left in the playoffs shockingly 3 of the 4 have payrolls near $100mil or far in excess.

 

Konerko? Buehrle? You're grasping at straws with those two. Bobby Jenks was five years ago. Thornton was 4 years ago. I'll give you the other 3. But that's not enough. What do we have currently? Next to nothing outside of Sale, who I'm not sold on if he can be a starter, if not, he was a wasted pick. You gotta keep the pipeline flowing. And yes, they don't stay cheap forever. But their dirt cheap for three years and relatively cheap for another 3. That's a pretty big deal.

 

 

I'm not familiar with all teams in detail, but I can't imagine not being able to do the same sorts of things with teams in the same payroll range. And to be fair, once you takeaway the free agents, this isn't a $100 million team anymore. I think it was something more like $80 to $85 million IIRC.

 

80-85 million sounds about right. So tell me, do you feel will be able to legitimately fill 1B, C, DH and 3B and dish out arbitration raises with 10-15 million? I know I don't. It'd be different if we had legitimate in-house replacements. But Danks and Flowers have completely fallen of the prospect map. I'm still not sold on Morel's bat (though I love the glove). I do like Viciedo. But this is going to be one interesting offseason. If KW and company can pull a horseshoe out their asses, I'll be the first to stand up (not literally) and give them their props. I just don't see it.

Edited October 14, 2010 by Jordan4life

[southsider2k5]

My opinion based on history is that one of the starting pitchers gets dealt to fill holes. I think 3B is filled by Morel. The rest we will see.

[Jordan4life_2007]

My opinion based on history is that one of the starting pitchers gets dealt to fill holes. I think 3B is filled by Morel. The rest we will see.

 

Fair enough. At least it seems you're semi admitting that KW and his staff have a major challenge ahead of them this offseason.

[NorthSideSox72]

I keep hearing this, but how many complete $100 million teams are out there?

 

Hell, even the Yankees have holes in their roster.

 

Fair enough. At least it seems you're semi admitting that KW and his staff have a major challenge ahead of them this offseason.

 

If they are not allowed to scrape $110M or so, then yeah, he has to pull a rabbit out of his hat.

 

[Soxbadger]

Konerko was brought in when he was pre-arb. Buerhle was home grown. The point is that cheap guys eventually become expensive if they are good. That is having a pipeline flowing. Over 10 years or so the Sox have had different home grown talent play for them.

 

What do we have currently? Next to nothing outside of Sale, who I'm not sold on if he can be a starter, if not, he was a wasted pick. You gotta keep the pipeline flowing. And yes, they don't stay cheap forever. But their dirt cheap for three years and relatively cheap for another 3. That's a pretty big deal.

 

Well have to see what we have in the future. Prospects are a crap shoot, a guy could be a top prospect and do nothing, he could be unheard of and become a star.

 

The Sox have had plenty of cheap talent, just over time if you want to stay consistently competitive you are going to have to pay. And eventually you are going to end up trading younger cheaper talent for more proven veterans.

 

If you want to win you have to risk.

[RockRaines]

Next to nothing outside of Sale, who I'm not sold on if he can be a starter, if not, he was a wasted pick.

A first round pick that comes up and pretty much dominates a few months after he was drafted is a wasted pick? Bulls***. Even if he ends up a dominant set up guy or closer its never a wasted pick when a guy can contribute this early at this level.

[Jordan4life_2007]

A first round pick that comes up and pretty much dominates a few months after he was drafted is a wasted pick? Bulls***. Even if he ends up a dominant set up guy or closer its never a wasted pick when a guy can contribute this early at this level.

 

Unless we're talking Mariano Rivera clones, I don't want to use critical first round picks on relievers. I don't care how good they are. Especially in our current position.

[Balta1701]

Unless we're talking Mariano Rivera clones, I don't want to use critical first round picks on relievers. I don't care how good they are. Especially in our current position.

And there's no such thing as a Mariano Rivera clone.

 

There just isn't.

[southsider2k5]

Fair enough. At least it seems you're semi admitting that KW and his staff have a major challenge ahead of them this offseason.

 

Oh I know there are challenges. It is my contention that the payroll at $100 million shouldn't be enough to have all of a teams holes filled. The fact that the Sox have holes shouldn't be neither a shock, nor some sort of black mark against the Sox. There are teams with much higher payrolls who have big, or bigger problems.

[southsider2k5]

A first round pick that comes up and pretty much dominates a few months after he was drafted is a wasted pick? Bulls***. Even if he ends up a dominant set up guy or closer its never a wasted pick when a guy can contribute this early at this level.

 

If he becomes our closer, and puts up solid closing numbers, that won't bother me a bit.

[Balta1701]

If he becomes our closer, and puts up solid closing numbers, that won't bother me a bit.

I dunno, if I'm drafting a guy in the 1st round...I really want him to at least be tried as a starter. I want him to be moved to the bullpen because I have 5 reasonably priced guys signed for several years and no where else to put him.