Why Konerko will re-sign with the sox

[joeynach]

There is no question that the biggest decision this offseason is whether to bring back fan favorite and white sox lifer Paul Konerko. While post people, me included love this guy, I think we should take a much more detailed look into the situation. That being said there are several reason why I think the sox will resign Konerko. I think that if we really take a long hard look at Konerko, the market for 1B slugger types, and some comparable players we can make a much more educated guess than simply say “I think hes gone” or “I think he will resign”.

 

1. There is no doubt Paul Konerko had a monster 2010 year, at age 35 he posted a line of .312/.393/.584 with 39 HR, 39 2B, and 111 RBI. In comparison, Konerko’s career 162 game average is .280/.356/.498 with 32 HR, 30 2B, and 101 RBI. So looking forward I think one can expect a little regression from his 2010 numbers, but still very solid middle the order production as his 162 game average suggests. If the sox were to part ways with Konerko they would need another 1B middle of the order slugger who would also be in line to produce similar numbers of 30+ HR and 100+ RBI. The typical candidates would be Prince Fielder or Adam Dunn who are both free agents.

 

2. If we look at both Fielder and Dunn we see comparable 162 game average productions. Fielder owns a line of .279/.385/.579 with 37 HR and 104 RBI, Dunn owns a line of .250/.381/.521 with 40 HR and 98 RBI. If you consider possible trades of the 2012 campaign you can throw Adrian Gonzalez in the mix as well, he owns a line of .284/.368/.507 with 35 HR and 99 RBI.

 

3. So basically, age aside, the Dunn/Fielder/Gonzalez option really only offers a moderate level of excess offensive production, if any at all. Considering that these three candidates are all much younger than Konerko it is safe to assume that their next contracts will be much longer in length (and $$) than Konerko’s. I think its safe to assume that each of these options will receive 4-6 years and anywhere from $60-100M on the open market. But what would a guy like Konerko get?

 

4. I think its safe to assume that if you can land Konerko for considerably less than the other three candidates than the sox would probably resign their fan favorite, their captain, etc. So what does a guy like Paul Konerko cost, well let’s take a look at what Bobby Abreu recently received. After a 2009 season with the Angels (at age 35), Abreu posted a .293/.390/.435 line with 15 HR, 103 RBI, and 30 SB. His 162 game average is .296/.400/.488 with 21 HR, 97 RBI, and 29 SB. Once again very comparable to Konerko’s minus the small HR discrepancy and the fact that Abreu can steal bases. Abreu signed a 2 Year 18M extension a $9M team option for 2012 with a $1M buyout.

 

5. So why will the sox resign Konerko. Simply because the level of production he offers compared to the alternatives will be a much more attainable figure for the sox to take on. The White Sox are rarely in the business of signing FA sluggers to the tune of 5-6 year deals for upwards of $100M. However, they are in the business of retaining home grown talent for very friendly terms. Even if Konerko is able to get a 3rd Year guaranteed (something Abreu was not) at say $10M per year, that its still a steal, for both parties. Given Konerko’s age 35, compared to the other FA 1B sluggers who are quite a bit younger, its doubtful Konerko is going to get some sort of 5 Year deal for $75M. That being said, if the market for Konerko is as predicted, something like 2-3 Years at $9-11M per year, then there is no doubt in my mind Konerko chooses the sox and the sox choose Konerko.

 

6. Summary lines (162 game average):

a. Dunn - .250/.381/.521, 40 HR, 98 RBI

b. Fielder - .279/.385/.579, 37 HR, 104 RBI

c. Gonzalez - .284/.368/.507, 35 HR, 99 RBI

d. Abreu - .296/.400/.488, 21 HR, 97 RBI (29 SB)

e. Konerko - .280/.356/.498, 32 HR, 101 RBI

 

7. Prediction: Konerko gets a contract more similar to Abreu’s from last year than Dunn or Fielder’s on the open market this year. Both age and lower OBP/SLG will keep Konerko in the $10M and 2-3 year contract range when compared to what Dunn/Fielder/Gonzalez are likely to get in FA.

 

8. Official prognosis: Konerko signs with the sox either for 2/20 or 3/30.

 

[chw42]

They did a contract crowdsourcing on FanGraphs today.

 

Average response was that Paulie was going to get 2 years ant $20 million. I think that seems about right.

Edited October 29, 2010 by chw42

[fathom]

How about the simple fact that maybe Konerko wants to go elsewhere and experience another organization?

[joeynach]

They did a contract crowdsourcing on FanGraphs today.

 

Average response was that Paulie was going to get 2 years ant $20 million. I think that seems about right.

 

Ha I didnt even see that. I should work for fangraphs.

[joeynach]

How about the simple fact that maybe Konerko wants to go elsewhere and experience another organization?

 

Might be, but I still maintain that gets the same contract amount.

[Soxfest]

They did a contract crowdsourcing on FanGraphs today.

 

Average response was that Paulie was going to get 2 years ant $20 million. I think that seems about right.

 

That would be a fair deal and fine by me!

[Quin]

Prince Fielder is not a FA

[Jerksticks]

Prince Fielder is not a FA

 

This doesn't matter at all for his point. Moving the conversation forward...I'd like to resign PK simply because our offense would be awful without him. I think Tank is our future 1B and I would love if he backed up PK next year and was 1 half of a GOOD DH tandem.

[greg775]

How about the simple fact that maybe Konerko wants to go elsewhere and experience another organization?

 

I could see that happening. It's been a rocky ride the past season and a half. He might be better off leaving then coming back in a blaze of glory once he retires to be a color commentator or something.

I would think Paulie would demand a 3 year deal; I think last year's excellent contract year season guarantees somebody is gonna give him 3 for 30 minimum, maybe 3 for 36 if he finds the right team.

I would agree for a team's sake, two years is ideal, but he SHOULD demand 3. I think somebody will give him 3 years, don't you?

[joeynach]

I could see that happening. It's been a rocky ride the past season and a half. He might be better off leaving then coming back in a blaze of glory once he retires to be a color commentator or something.

I would think Paulie would demand a 3 year deal; I think last year's excellent contract year season guarantees somebody is gonna give him 3 for 30 minimum, maybe 3 for 36 if he finds the right team.

I would agree for a team's sake, two years is ideal, but he SHOULD demand 3. I think somebody will give him 3 years, don't you?

 

Yeah he might be able to get 3 years guaranteed. It all depends on how things shake down around him. What will D Lee, Berkman, Huff, Pena get in their free agency, will they receive lower length commitments but decent salaries? I could see Konerko getting something like 2 Years Guaranteed with some sort of vesting 3rd year option.

Edited November 1, 2010 by joeynach