Offseason gameplan

[greg775]

MLBtraderumors is saying the Sox are trying to extend Danks now to a long-term contract. Great, so now we are going to have even less money going forward. I mean, as long as it's no more than $7-8M a year, I'll be content w/ it.

 

Don't worry. Be happy. Signing Danks is a good thing.

[LittleHurt05]

MLBtraderumors is saying the Sox are trying to extend Danks now to a long-term contract. Great, so now we are going to have even less money going forward. I mean, as long as it's no more than $7-8M a year, I'll be content w/ it.

 

Yeah, but who would you rather spend the money on? Its not like Danks is some s*** pitcher they are trying to hold onto.

[Kenny Hates Prospects]

If Danks were a FA right now he'd be in the most elite group of free agents out there, and there would be about a zillion teams after him with some teams even preferring Danks over Lee due to age of the players prior to a lengthy commitment. Danks isn't an ace, but top-end LHSP who are as young as he is and can throw 200IP worry-free in a tough park in the toughest league get paid extremely well. And because of the arbitration process, if we can extend him, we will get him for a sum well, well, well below crazy GM spending spree market value. So all in all, there should be no reason to be anything but thrilled at the prospect of extending Danks.

 

We also need to be talking to Bobby right now. We should offer about a $3M base before we go ahead and non-tender him. Same with Putz. I want Sale as the closer ideally, but more than anything else we need quality depth in the pen and if we can bring back Bobby at a discount we should do it looking to cash in on a rebound. I imagine he would turn down something like that though, but no harm in trying. Putz should be gone though as someone out there is crazy enough to guarantee him a lot of money IMO.

 

One thing I'd still love to see, and I don't care if others don't like it, but I'd love to see us go after Rowand or Fukudome for our trio of s*** contracts. If I'm Kenny that's one of the first things I try to do, make a near-even salary exhange of Teahen, Pierre, and Linetrash for someone who can play the f***ing OF for God sakes. Preferably someone with some potential to become near league average player, which is something those two have IMO.

 

Beyond that stuff, we need to make a decision on Q. His bat has a lot of potential to make us better, but it also has a lot of potential to straddle the line of mediocrity. He was supposed to have a good year in 2010 and he didn't. He was supposed to remain at least good after catching fire and he didn't. His defense is as scary as I thought it would be last offseason. Because of all this he might be a good candidate to DH, but I would actually lean towards spending the $4-6M or whatever he'd get in arb on a proven veteran who is older but a better candidate to produce and then deal Quentin for a similar high talent, limited results type of player. After last year we can't afford s*** defense and we can't afford s*** production at DH either. IMO we need guarantees or near-guarantees in both areas.

 

Lastly, stay the f*** away from Carl Crawford for the love of God. Just don't even inquire on that. If you want to chase a dream, chase Werth since he's the better player anyway and will probably come on a better deal since he's not as grindy and runny.

[ChiliIrishHammock24]

If Danks were a FA right now he'd be in the most elite group of free agents out there, and there would be about a zillion teams after him with some teams even preferring Danks over Lee due to age of the players prior to a lengthy commitment. Danks isn't an ace, but top-end LHSP who are as young as he is and can throw 200IP worry-free in a tough park in the toughest league get paid extremely well. And because of the arbitration process, if we can extend him, we will get him for a sum well, well, well below crazy GM spending spree market value. So all in all, there should be no reason to be anything but thrilled at the prospect of extending Danks.

 

We also need to be talking to Bobby right now. We should offer about a $3M base before we go ahead and non-tender him. Same with Putz. I want Sale as the closer ideally, but more than anything else we need quality depth in the pen and if we can bring back Bobby at a discount we should do it looking to cash in on a rebound. I imagine he would turn down something like that though, but no harm in trying. Putz should be gone though as someone out there is crazy enough to guarantee him a lot of money IMO.

 

One thing I'd still love to see, and I don't care if others don't like it, but I'd love to see us go after Rowand or Fukudome for our trio of s*** contracts. If I'm Kenny that's one of the first things I try to do, make a near-even salary exhange of Teahen, Pierre, and Linetrash for someone who can play the f***ing OF for God sakes. Preferably someone with some potential to become near league average player, which is something those two have IMO.

 

Beyond that stuff, we need to make a decision on Q. His bat has a lot of potential to make us better, but it also has a lot of potential to straddle the line of mediocrity. He was supposed to have a good year in 2010 and he didn't. He was supposed to remain at least good after catching fire and he didn't. His defense is as scary as I thought it would be last offseason. Because of all this he might be a good candidate to DH, but I would actually lean towards spending the $4-6M or whatever he'd get in arb on a proven veteran who is older but a better candidate to produce and then deal Quentin for a similar high talent, limited results type of player. After last year we can't afford s*** defense and we can't afford s*** production at DH either. IMO we need guarantees or near-guarantees in both areas.

 

Lastly, stay the f*** away from Carl Crawford for the love of God. Just don't even inquire on that. If you want to chase a dream, chase Werth since he's the better player anyway and will probably come on a better deal since he's not as grindy and runny.

 

 

Whoa man, take that back.

[Lillian]

The organization is completely void of a potent left handed bat, and management knows it. Werth is another right handed hitter. It is pretty apparent that K.W. will pursue a left handed hitter, as his highest priority, at least regarding the offense.

 

I think that names like Willingham, Vlad Guerrero and any other right handed hitter are just not realistic targets, unless they involve a trade of one or more of the Sox' right handed hitters.

 

 

[thedoctor]

good to hear, but i see this more as pre-trade maneuvering than anything else.

[hogan873]

Don't worry. Be happy. Signing Danks is a good thing.

Well put. I don't think signing Danks to an extension (especially if it's as much of a bargain as it sounds like it could be) would affect the payroll that much next year. If he signs for 4/$20-$25 million, depending on how the money is broken down you may be looking at $5 or $6 million next year. He's worth that for sure.

[NorthSideSox72]

Anyway...signing a guy to an extension and immediately trading him...that'd seem like a major d-bag move if it actually happened.

 

That's not the way KW works, IMO. Kenny is an options guy. He doesn't sign him with the intent of trading him - he signs him because its win-win either way, and it gives him two good options if he can do it. And if he can't...

 

good to hear, but i see this more as pre-trade maneuvering than anything else.

 

...you then have your answer.

 

[Balta1701]

That's not the way KW works, IMO. Kenny is an options guy. He doesn't sign him with the intent of trading him - he signs him because its win-win either way, and it gives him two good options if he can do it. And if he can't...

The point there is that if he did extend him...he wouldn't be dealing him before the deadline this year. That's just not kosher.

[NorthSideSox72]

The point there is that if he did extend him...he wouldn't be dealing him before the deadline this year. That's just not kosher.

I think he works like any savvy investor - he makes the best decision available at the time (extending Danks is probably that), but after the fact, he does not hold onto that asset out of anything other than continuing value proposition. If trading him a month later makes sense at that time, he won't hesitate.

 

But really, if he's extended, he'd have to be blown away by an offer to trade Danks.

 

[Chicago White Sox]

I think he works like any savvy investor - he makes the best decision available at the time (extending Danks is probably that), but after the fact, he does not hold onto that asset out of anything other than continuing value proposition. If trading him a month later makes sense at that time, he won't hesitate.

 

But really, if he's extended, he'd have to be blown away by an offer to trade Danks.

But he would hesitate and hopefully never make such a move. Signing a player to an extension and then trading him a month later would be horrible for KW's reputation. It would also make future extensions much more difficult. Players would be less willing to sign extensions in general and would never accept a home-team discount. More players would also request no-trade clauses. I don't see how you can think KW would be able to treat a baseball player like a stock and not face repercussions.

[southsider2k5]

Might actually make him more tradeable, if the money is affordable in relation to likely arb numbers and includes 1 or more free agent years.

 

Taking it a step further, this might be the trigger for trading Danks. Either they extend him and keep him around, or they try to extend him, fail, and use that as justification to trade him.

[NorthSideSox72]

Taking it a step further, this might be the trigger for trading Danks. Either they extend him and keep him around, or they try to extend him, fail, and use that as justification to trade him.

That's what I was saying (maybe in the other thread) about this being the other motivation. You want to know now, what Danks' intentions are.

 

[Jerksticks]

That's what I was saying (maybe in the other thread) about this being the other motivation. You want to know now, what Danks' intentions are.

 

And if you're Danks, would you commit to a team that continually puts no run support behind you? He could easily have 15-20 more wins since he broke in.

 

 

[Balta1701]

And if you're Danks, would you commit to a team that continually puts no run support behind you? He could easily have 15-20 more wins since he broke in.

Why should he care?

[Jerksticks]

Why should he care?

 

Sarcasm? Anyway, in 2 years he can write his ticket anywhere. Why give up that opportunity and that flexibility? For a couple extra million this year and next? I just don't see the pressure on his side to complete an extension.

[Balta1701]

Sarcasm? Anyway, in 2 years he can write his ticket anywhere. Why give up that opportunity and that flexibility? For a couple extra million this year and next? I just don't see the pressure on his side to complete an extension.

The answer to that is really simple...it's insurance. You sign a 4 year deal right now, you give up maybe $5-$10 million total, but you guarantee that you're walking out of baseball with $40-50 million.

[Lillian]

Sarcasm? Anyway, in 2 years he can write his ticket anywhere. Why give up that opportunity and that flexibility? For a couple extra million this year and next? I just don't see the pressure on his side to complete an extension.

 

Isn't the added security of considerable value to Danks? What would happen if he got injured, and could not pitch effectively again?

[southsider2k5]

The answer to that is really simple...it's insurance. You sign a 4 year deal right now, you give up maybe $5-$10 million total, but you guarantee that you're walking out of baseball with $40-50 million.

 

He could have done the same thing years before, when his future shot a big payday was smaller. Why now?

[Balta1701]

He could have done the same thing years before, when his future shot a big payday was smaller. Why now?

What was Gavin Floyd's contract worth? $15 million?

 

$15 million versus probably $40 million if he signed today?

[Jerksticks]

The answer to that is really simple...it's insurance. You sign a 4 year deal right now, you give up maybe $5-$10 million total, but you guarantee that you're walking out of baseball with $40-50 million.

 

Insurance is the simple answer, that's correct. But Danks will already have around 20 mil after the next 2 seasons. If he went to free agency, why wouldn't he be offered $14 per year from any team he likes? He'll be able to write his ticket anywhere. I doubt he's really thinking he'll get injured.

 

Sure it's a gamble on his part but not THAT big of one.

[southsider2k5]

What was Gavin Floyd's contract worth? $15 million?

 

$15 million versus probably $40 million if he signed today?

 

At the point he is at in his career, his chances at a big payday are much bigger now, than they were a couple of years ago. With a longer resume, and closer to free agency, the odds he would get a large contract even if he he had a major injury are much greater now, versus two years ago. If it were really about playing it safe, he would have signed a couple of years back when his future earnings were a lot more in question.

[southsider2k5]

Isn't the added security of considerable value to Danks? What would happen if he got injured, and could not pitch effectively again?

 

It wasn't two years ago when he was making a whole hell of a lot less than now.

[Dick Allen]

Insurance is the simple answer, that's correct. But Danks will already have around 20 mil after the next 2 seasons. If he went to free agency, why wouldn't he be offered $14 per year from any team he likes? He'll be able to write his ticket anywhere. I doubt he's really thinking he'll get injured.

 

Sure it's a gamble on his part but not THAT big of one.

Its always a bigger gamble for a pitcher. He also might be costing himself a lot of cash, and security by signing an extension. What if the Sox bought out the first year of free agency or even the second and he gets hurt one of those years? Not only is he pitching for a lower wage, he probably costs himself 2 or 3 years of guaranteed money. Its something he will have to decide. The other thing is if he's planning on getting $15 million a year for 5 or 6 years, there aren't a whole lot of teams that will go there. He'd have to weigh whether he'd truly be happy with those teams because if he does sign an extension this offseason, its not like he's really going to need anymore money unless he's just a dope.

[Jerksticks]

Its always a bigger gamble for a pitcher. He also might be costing himself a lot of cash, and security by signing an extension. What if the Sox bought out the first year of free agency or even the second and he gets hurt one of those years? Not only is he pitching for a lower wage, he probably costs himself 2 or 3 years of guaranteed money. Its something he will have to decide. The other thing is if he's planning on getting $15 million a year for 5 or 6 years, there aren't a whole lot of teams that will go there. He'd have to weigh whether he'd truly be happy with those teams because if he does sign an extension this offseason, its not like he's really going to need anymore money unless he's just a dope.

 

Agree. Now what if he doesn't look at his free agency through dollar-eyes. Maybe he grew up always wanting to play for a team, or at the very least a contender. He's only 2 years away from being able to sign with ANY team he wants, money aside. Not many guys get that pure opportunity, but he will. And like you're saying, if he hasn't been a dope with his money, then he'll already have made enough these 2 years to cover any injury risk through his remaining arb year.