Who killed Kenny?

[southsider2k5]

http://www.csnchicago.com/11/07/10/Bargain...&feedID=661

 

Bargain or Bust: Who 'killed' Kenny?

 

Despite a 10-13 record with a 4.08 ERA in 2010, staistics confirm that Gavin Floyd turned the most profit for the White Sox when his salary is taken into account.What’s a fair talent profit?

 

 

The Chicago White Sox turning a “profit” of $62.8 million in player performance above salary sure sounds great. But what does it mean?

 

Specifically, I’m taking the player value at FanGraphs (basically a salary value of the player’s WAR for the year) and subtracting salary.

 

For example, Alexei Ramirez turned in a season of $15.2 million value in 2010, so subtracting his $1.1 million salary gives the White Sox a net “profit” of $14.1 million. Conversely, Mark Teahen turned in a negative-$2.5 million season, which combined with a salary of $3.75 million yields a sum debit to the White Sox of $6.25 million.

 

But in order to gain some perspective, I ran a rough report of the profits for several other major league teams, which more than anything allowed me to arrive at a “B” grade for GM Ken Williams. Here are the numbers:

 

• The White Sox finished second in the AL Central with a 88-74 record and a team payroll $103.1 million. Profit: $62.8 million

 

• The AL Central champion Minnesota Twins were 94-68 with a team payroll of $97.7 million. Profit: $106.4 million

 

• The Boston Red Sox finished the season closest in wins to the White Sox, with an 89-73 record good for third place in the AL East, nudging one more win out of $65 million in additional payroll. Profit: $32.6 million

 

• The Los Angeles Dodgers had the closest payroll to that of the White Sox in 2010, using their $102.1 million payroll to finish 80-82 and fourth place in the NL West. But rather than a talent profit, the "Bums" finished in the red. Debit: $6.7 million

 

• A team within the AL Central that managed money poorly last season, the Detroit Tigers, finished third, with an 81-81 record. Profit: $21.9 million

 

• And the most notoriously mismanaged team in all of baseball, the Chicago Cubs, finished fifth in the NL Central with a 75-87 record in spite of a $144.4 million payroll. Debit: $4.2 million

 

While surely there were teams that fell between the Twins and White Sox in terms of talent profit, the Chisox seem to grade out pretty well, even with the albatrosses of the Jake Peavy injury and whiffs on Teahen, Mark Kotsay, Scott Linebrink and Manny Ramirez.

 

Williams, of course, won’t be spraining a shoulder patting himself on the back. The truth in 2010, as always, is that a good job by the White Sox was merely trumped by exquisite work from Minnesota. The numbers tell us that yes, indeed, the difference in the AL Central could have been made solely by DHs: Jim Thome with the Twinks vs. Chicago’s failed committee.

 

Williams’ made modest ($14.3 million) gains with his 2010 acquisitions; Minnesota did much better. The tables must be turned — or the playing field at least leveled — for the White Sox to have a fair shot vs. the Twins in 2011.

 

Happy shopping, Ken!

 

By Brett Ballantini

CSNChicago.com

 

If Chicago White Sox general manager Ken Williams matched his reticence in the media with reserve at the trading table, chances are he’d have a lot sunnier reputation among White Sox fans. But then, if Williams was any less aggressive in the offseason, he’d likely be out of a job—after all, favored son or no, there aren’t many GMs out there who last a decade with a team at any level, in any sport.

 

Indeed it’s Williams’ bold nature that keeps the White Sox competitive. And contrary to those clearly on the side of manager Ozzie Guillen in the Ozzie-Kenny wars (full disclosure: I love both), a big reason why the White Sox are on the short list of talked-about clubs isn’t simply the “what’d Ozzie say?” factor, but because Williams consistently brings in intriguing players who more often than not aid in White Sox victories.

 

The White Sox have averaged 85 wins per season during Williams’ decade of service — a number he probably wants to kick the crap out of himself because it’s not 90. But there can be no doubt why Williams remains in the GM chair on the South Side — he builds winners.

 

Back in July, I detailed some of Williams’ top deals and estimated he’d brought in via trade alone some 41.8 Wins Above Replacement (WAR) to the White Sox in his tenure; that’s a near All-Star per season.

 

In 2010, there were a number of stinkers that killed GM Kenny and earned an inordinate amount of attention, and in spite of squeezing 88 wins out of a Jake Peavy-less team, most judge 2010 as a failure for the White Sox. And contrary to Guillen’s lament at midseason, most fans judge Williams harshly for the DH conundrum that hamstrung the club, not the manager.

 

So, how did Williams do as Chicago’s general manager in 2010? This analysis draws upon the player season values at FanGraphs (where they basically assign a value to player’s WAR, with one win above replacement equating to $4 million) to see if the White Sox got their money’s worth from each player on the roster.

 

Positional totals come from the player’s FanGraphs value subtracted by season salary, and numbers below are expressed in millions. Only the substantive members of the White Sox (non-italicized) are included in the bolded positional sums. The added value beyond salary is labeled as “team profit.”

 

Catcher ($4.5 million in team profit)

Ramon Castro 3.7

Tyler Flowers -0.1

Donny Lucy 0.7

A.J. Pierzynski 0.2

 

The decision to bring Castro back for a season that fell just short of his career best transformed an otherwise unprofitable position. Pierzynski had a solid year ($7 million value), but his relatively high salary meant he basically met his salary expectations.

 

First Base ($4.8 million)

Paul Konerko 4.8

 

In only two of his latest contract’s five years did PK outperform his $12 million salary, and the 2010 season was one of them.

 

Second Base ($1.2 million)

Gordon Beckham 3.2

Brent Lillibridge -2.0

 

Taking into account how little Beckham and Lillibridge are paid tells everything about their modest production in 2010.

 

Shortstop ($14.1 million)

Alexei Ramirez 14.1

 

Ramirez is hardly well-paid, but it was his over-the-top performance in 2010 that delivered $14.1 million in profit to the White Sox. It’s safe to assume there is no better shortstop bargain in baseball.

 

Third Base (-$8.3 million)

Brent Morel 0.2

Jayson Nix -1.8

Mark Teahen -6.3

Dayan Viciedo 0.0

Omar Vizquel -0.4

 

If you had a gut feeling that third base was the nightmare position for the White Sox, this value analysis proves that out. Even Nix managed to take a bite out of the team before he was waived early in the season. It remains to be seen whether Morel, apparently the incumbent starter for 2011, can add much value to the White Sox — at this point it would be a “win” for the Chisox if 2011’s profit at the hot corner mimics that of second base in 2010.

 

Left Field ($6 million)

Juan Pierre 6.0

 

Combine Pierre’s incredible production for the White Sox with the fact that the Los Angeles Dodgers are paying the majority of his salary, and you’ve got an easy win in left field.

 

Center Field ($4.5 million)

Alejandro De Aza -0.6

Alex Rios 5.1

 

Rios went from one of the worst values in all of baseball in 2009 to well outperforming his contract in 2010.

 

Right Field ($3.7 million)

Andruw Jones 6.9

Carlos Quentin -3.2

 

Think those of us who feel that Quentin’s likely $4 million salary for 2011 would be better spent in bringing back Jones for two seasons are nuts? Jones’s defense — or the lack of it from Q — makes the big difference here. But even discounting D, Jones was a better value in 2010.

 

Designated Hitter (-$7.3 million)

Mark Kotsay -4.3

Manny Ramirez -3.0

 

No, DH wasn’t the very worst spot on the team, as evidenced above. But aggravating the issue was the fact that Jim Thome, who left the White Sox, delivered $13.1 million in profit to the rival Minnesota Twins as Kotsay, Jones, and later Ramirez failed in Gentleman Jim’s old spot. Kotsay had posted negative WAR seasons in three of the past four years and to have expected an uptick was a foolish gamble. Ramirez apparently did a lot of good behind the closed doors of the White Sox clubhouse, but on the field, he couldn’t come close to making up for his $4 million throwaway salary for September.

 

Starting Pitchers ($30.6 million)

Mark Buehrle 1.2

John Danks 14.0

Gavin Floyd 14.6

Freddy Garcia 4.4

Daniel Hudson 0.4

Edwin Jackson 3.8

Jake Peavy -7.8

 

If Peavy hadn’t gotten injured, there wouldn’t be a single negative figure in the rotation — and Peavy’s debit was due to injury, pitching just half a season at a $15 million salary. Floyd’s $14.6 million team profit makes him the best value on the White Sox.

 

Relief Pitchers ($5.9 million)

Lucas Harrell 0.1

Gregory Infante 0.1

Bobby Jenks -1.3

Scott Linebrink -5.4

Jeffrey Marquez -0.6

Tony Pena -0.2

J.J. Putz 3.0

Chris Sale 0.9

Sergio Santos 3.5

Matt Thornton 6.3

Erick Threets 0.8

Carlos Torres -0.3

Randy Williams -1.0

 

As indicated by the long list here, the bullpen was a bigger mess than the rotation in 2010, but aside from Linebrink, there were no awful values. It’s safe to assume Threets’s value could have approached that of Putz or Santos had he enjoyed an injury-free season as well.

 

Williams’ Grade: B

 

All in all, Williams got almost $62.8 million in profit from his core players. That takes into account all the negatives (meaning their performance value to the team didn’t offset their salary) from Lillibridge, Teahen, Vizquel, Quentin, Kotsay, Manny Ramirez, Peavy, Jenks, Linebrink and Pena.

 

Even if you dismiss the incumbent roster and judge Williams only by the players he brought onto the White Sox this season, they came at a sum profit, albeit a modest one. You can chop it in many ways, but counting Castro, Morel, Teahen, Vizquel, Pierre, De Aza, Jones, Manny Ramirez, Kotsay, Garcia, Jackson, Putz and Sale as “new” players (yes, Garcia and Kotsay were on the roster at the end of 2009 but were free agents at the end of the year), Williams brought in players who delivered $14.3 million in value above their 2010 salaries.

 

[For some perspective on where the White Sox’s “profit” lands them among MLB teams, see sidebar.]

 

As well as Williams managed this season, he has better years on his resume. And with the White Sox clearly dominating the Twins only in starting rotation (yes, the key piece), it is incumbent on the GM to earn equal marks to Minnesota this offseason, lest the White Sox spend 2011 playing well but again looking up at the perennial division winners.

 

Brett Ballantini is CSNChicago.com's White Sox Insider. Follow him @CSNChi_Beatnik on Twitter for up-to-the-minute White Sox information.

[Quin]

I enjoyed that article.

[Balta1701]

"This week, Mysterion's identity is revealed to be...Kenny Williams!"

[chw42]

Hey, somebody found out that WAR was good for something.

[chw42]

"This week, Mysterion's identity is revealed to be...Kenny Williams!"

 

And he can't die!

[Princess Dye]

Why the low value for Vizquel?

[joeynach]

I love letting the numbers speak for themselves and then you thrown in saber stats and WAR into player/team evaluation....wow im totally aroused!

[chunk23]

Why the low value for Vizquel?

 

 

Because Vizquel wasn't very good?

[chw42]

Why the low value for Vizquel?

 

Because Omar did nothing but hit singles. He had a good OBP, but his SLG was around .300.

 

And UZR didn't like his defense at 3B as much as us Sox fans perceived it be.

[Balta1701]

Because Omar did nothing but hit singles. He had a good OBP, but his SLG was around .300.

 

And UZR didn't like his defense at 3B as much as us Sox fans perceived it be.

It's somewhat amazing that Vizquel wound up being so important to the turnaround despite being average...solely because the guy he replaced was so bad.

[smalls2598]

I like this:

 

Shortstop ($14.1 million)

Alexei Ramirez 14.1

 

Ramirez is hardly well-paid, but it was his over-the-top performance in 2010 that delivered $14.1 million in profit to the White Sox. It’s safe to assume there is no better shortstop bargain in baseball.

[HuskyCaucasian]

"This week, Mysterion's identity is revealed to be...Kenny Williams!"

Is a member of the original Coon and Friends?

[3E8]

I like this:

The author must have forgotten about Troy Tulowitzki

[Milkman delivers]

I'm not even sure I've heard of this guy before, but I've read two things by him today that give me hope that I'll enjoy his articles. I like the jab at the Cubs, too.

 

a big reason why the White Sox are on the short list of talked-about clubs

 

That confused me a little bit, though.