White Sox Off-Season Catch All Thread

[johnnymick]

There has to be some sort of a balance there. You can't just act like the other years don't matter. Its not like if we win the Series in 2011, everyone would accept a 50 win season the next season.

 

The thing is, even if Sale starts the season as a starter, he can always go back to the pen. Going from the pen to the rotation in midseason is a much more impossible task, and it could really screw up other things that are fine, by putting demands on other players past their roles. Thing of the dominos that fell apart last year just when Jenks was out.

 

I remember hearing one theory that the reason our bullpen always seems to fade in the second half is because we never have a difference-making arm in the minors to bring up mid-season. Why not let him start the season as a starter, where he can work on building up arm strength, then bring him in as a powerful reliever down the stretch?

[bigruss]

Sale needs to be a starter this year and in the future because we can't just look at one year at a time. Yes, we are an improved team from last year, but that doesn't make us a favorite or an auto-clinch for the division much less the WS. The Sox need to put themselves in the very best situation to succeed year in and year out, that means maximizing the few high end prospects they have in value, meaning getting Sale ready to be a 200 inning pitcher next year.

 

I would much rather the Sox have a plan to succeed at a top level over 4-5 years than just one big chance for one year, since it's baseball and so much can happen to derail your team.

[Rowand44]

This team has a chance to be a World Series contender this year and if that's going to be the case than Chris Sale is going to be a big part of that. He needs to be on the big league roster, period.

[chw42]

Reds picked up Fred Lewis today for 900K. I would have liked to see him as a 4th OFer on the Sox.

[Dick Allen]

It will retard his growth towards being a 200 inning pitcher. There are pretty clear studies that show how the growth of a pitchers arm needs to be done. Forget 2014, we don't have starters for 2012. If Sale hasn't pushed into the 160 to 170 inning range this year, he won't be ready to be a 6 inning pitcher for 2012 when we need him as a starter.

Do you have a link to these studies? A few of the more famous relievers turned starters are Derek Lowe, who went from spot starter to closer to starter. His first year as a full time starter 21 wins 220 IP. Smoltz was a starter turned reliever for 5 years. Went back to starting at age 38 and threw 230 IP. Mark Buerhle work mostly out of the bullpen his first year with the White Sox in 2000. In 2001 he threw 221 innings, which is more than he's thrown in any season since 2005.

Edited January 11, 2011 by Dick Allen

[Balta1701]

Do you have a link to these studies? A few of the more famous relievers turned starters are Derek Lowe, who went from spot starter to closer to starter. His first year as a full time starter 21 wins 220 IP. Smoltz was a starter turned reliever for 5 years. Went back to starting at age 38 and threw 230 IP. Mark Buerhle work mostly out of the bullpen his first year with the White Sox in 2000. In 2001 he threw 221 innings, which is more than he's thrown in any season since 2005.

Named for Tom Verducci of Sports Illustrated, this is a negative forward indicator for pitcher workload. Verducci, who called this the 'Year After Effect,' found that pitchers under the age of 25 who have 30-inning increases year over year tend to underperform. Will Carroll independently found that pitchers who break the "Rule of 30" tend to get injured. Carroll renamed this 'rule' the Verducci Effect in honor of the man who initially found the evidence.

Link

[Dick Allen]

Link

Buehrle was 21, Lowe was 29, Smoltz was 38 and had surgery. Ryan Dempster threw 206 innings after 4 years in the bullpen. He was 31. Chances are Sale, like any other pitcher, is going to get hurt anyway. Francisco Liriano started in the bullpen then became a starter the same season, and got injured. Johan Santana went from 43 to 108 to 158 to 228 in his early 20s and didn't have a problem. The good pitchers, it means nothing. Its the average guys who have career years and are suddenly pitching in the 7th and 8th innings when they used to get knocked out in the 5th or 6th and the next season they come back down to earth ala Esteban Loaisa.

 

And if that study is accurate, Sale is already screwed. In college he went 36 IP to 86 IP to 102 IP + 33 professional IP.

Edited January 11, 2011 by Dick Allen

[southsider2k5]

Buehrle was 21, Lowe was 29, Smoltz was 38 and had surgery. Ryan Dempster threw 206 innings after 4 years in the bullpen. He was 31. Chances are Sale, like any other pitcher, is going to get hurt anyway. Francisco Liriano started in the bullpen then became a starter the same season, and got injured. Johan Santana went from 43 to 108 to 158 to 228 in his early 20s and didn't have a problem. The good pitchers, it means nothing. Its the average guys who have career years and are suddenly pitching in the 7th and 8th innings when they used to get knocked out in the 5th or 6th and the next season they come back down to earth ala Esteban Loaisa.

 

And if that study is accurate, Sale is already screwed. In college he went 36 IP to 86 IP to 102 IP + 33 professional IP.

 

Santana did have innings in the minors, as did Buehrle IIRC.

[Dick Allen]

Santana did have innings in the minors, as did Buehrle IIRC.

In 1999 Santana threw 160 innings the only time in the minors he threw at least 100. Buehrle threw 98 and 118 +51 pn the major league level. So they both jumped almost 70 innings. Buerhle jumped another 50 the next season. Sale had 135 last year. I'm sure its not going to hurt him, and if it does, he wasn't going to be much anyway.

 

Other than helping the White Sox most, putting Sale in the bullpen also can aid another thing that is very important. His confidence. Ozzie picks his match ups. As a starter, he's going to face a line up stacked with right handed hitters. If he has confidence he'll be fine. If he doesn't, he get knocked around.

Edited January 11, 2011 by Dick Allen

[southsider2k5]

In 1999 Santana threw 160 innings the only time in the minors he threw at least 100. Buehrle threw 98 and 118. Sale had 133 last year.

 

In reality, there are a couple of guys who have done it. There are many, many more guys who have tried and either had injury problems or fell apart completely. If there weren't there wouldn't be a name for it, and there would be guys swinging back and forth all of the time. There might be a couple who get away with it, but like I said earlier, guys are conditioned completely differently for the bullpen and starting. There is a really good reason why it doesn't happen all of the time.

[Dick Allen]

In reality, there are a couple of guys who have done it. There are many, many more guys who have tried and either had injury problems or fell apart completely. If there weren't there wouldn't be a name for it, and there would be guys swinging back and forth all of the time. There might be a couple who get away with it, but like I said earlier, guys are conditioned completely differently for the bullpen and starting. There is a really good reason why it doesn't happen all of the time.

Couldn't that reason be there is a reason someone is a reliever to begin with? Almost every pitcher was a starter at some point. Whether it be lack of pitches, injury concerns, whatever, they become relievers. Then they go back to starting and fail or get hurt. Sale is a future starter relieving. I think its a totally different situation.

[Milkman delivers]

Sale needs to be a starter this year and in the future because we can't just look at one year at a time. Yes, we are an improved team from last year, but that doesn't make us a favorite or an auto-clinch for the division much less the WS. The Sox need to put themselves in the very best situation to succeed year in and year out, that means maximizing the few high end prospects they have in value, meaning getting Sale ready to be a 200 inning pitcher next year.

 

I would much rather the Sox have a plan to succeed at a top level over 4-5 years than just one big chance for one year, since it's baseball and so much can happen to derail your team.

 

Yeah, like sending one of your most important relievers to the minors.

[bigruss]

Yeah, like sending one of your most important relievers to the minors.

Lol, Sa;e in the bullpen may only be worth 1 or 2 wins this season, we should be able to find a replacement for that which wont kill our chances at all. On the other hand, if you do ruin his progress towards being a 200 inning pitcher youre talking about losing 4-5 wins the next 5 years.

[Leonard Washington]

Lol, Sa;e in the bullpen may only be worth 1 or 2 wins this season, we should be able to find a replacement for that which wont kill our chances at all. On the other hand, if you do ruin his progress towards being a 200 inning pitcher youre talking about losing 4-5 wins the next 5 years.

In 23 and change innings last year he was worth 0.6 wins. And beyond that, even stat-heads admit WAR doesn't fully do justice to the value of relievers.

 

I agree Sale is a future SP, but I don't see the problem with him sticking in the pen for a season. I agree with the whole confidence thing. Phil Hughes is a recent example. He was a mess until he found his niche in the bullpen, built up his confidence, and felt like he belongs.

 

It's totally possible that Sale has already built up that confidence from his stint last season, but I have my doubts. I think it's a foregone conclusion that Sale is going to struggle, at least for a stretch, at some point. It happens to almost every young player, even the best ones. I would rather see him work through those struggles as the - at worst - 3rd lefty in the bullpen. That's what I think the Ohman signing was meant to be....a security blanket.

[ChiliIrishHammock24]

I wonder if the people saying Sale needs to be in the bullpen were on board with having Flowers on the team last year as our backup C and DH rotation instead of letting him develop and grow in AAA.

[witesoxfan]

Lol, Sa;e in the bullpen may only be worth 1 or 2 wins this season, we should be able to find a replacement for that which wont kill our chances at all. On the other hand, if you do ruin his progress towards being a 200 inning pitcher youre talking about losing 4-5 wins the next 5 years.

 

Hell, Will Ohman could be worth 1-2 wins this season if he gets 85% of the lefties he faces out (and that is a possibility, even if not likely).

 

The more important issue regarding Sale is that, because he can get both good lefties and good righties out, he is going to be pitching late in games, which is going to help the White Sox win games as opposed to getting the Sox into a position to win games. There is a difference, and his WPA will increase dramatically as a result.

[jenksycat]

I wonder if the people saying Sale needs to be in the bullpen were on board with having Flowers on the team last year as our backup C and DH rotation instead of letting him develop and grow in AAA.

 

yep, cause thats definitely a fair comparison.

[Kenny Hates Prospects]

I wonder if the people saying Sale needs to be in the bullpen were on board with having Flowers on the team last year as our backup C and DH rotation instead of letting him develop and grow in AAA.

There are strong question marks about Sale re: his health and his ability to stay strong and pitch to both sides of the plate (especially to righties) over the course of a season. We know from reports that his stuff as a starter isn't nearly as explosive as it is out of the pen.

 

OTOH, there aren't really any question marks that I know of as far as Sale in the pen. His upside there is tremendous. And, we just happen to have a bullpen in need of help.

 

BTW Tyler Flowers isn't a tenth of the player Chris Sale is. Flowers isn't on the team because he's not a Major League player. Chris is on the MLB team because he is an MLB player. And Flowers doesn't need to be in Charlotte so he can "grow," he needs to be in Charlotte so he can build enough value to get us something other than a bag of balls in return.

[Leonard Washington]

I will be totally honest..... I have serious doubts about Sale's ability to stay healthy. I think it's possible he suffers a major injury (Tommy John comes to mind) and he totally recovers, but when I see him pitch I see serious injury risks. People seem to think his adding mass with age will help, but I see the opposite. His type of motion requires incredible flexibility, which tends to come with lower muscle mass. I think he becomes more risky as he fills out.

 

That being said (curb your enthusiasm reference intended), pitcher's injuries are never a sure thing, and I hope with all sincerity he has no serious health issues. I love not only his promise, but the heart he showed this past season.

[ChiliIrishHammock24]

There are strong question marks about Sale re: his health and his ability to stay strong and pitch to both sides of the plate (especially to righties) over the course of a season. We know from reports that his stuff as a starter isn't nearly as explosive as it is out of the pen.

 

OTOH, there aren't really any question marks that I know of as far as Sale in the pen. His upside there is tremendous. And, we just happen to have a bullpen in need of help.

 

BTW Tyler Flowers isn't a tenth of the player Chris Sale is. Flowers isn't on the team because he's not a Major League player. Chris is on the MLB team because he is an MLB player. And Flowers doesn't need to be in Charlotte so he can "grow," he needs to be in Charlotte so he can build enough value to get us something other than a bag of balls in return.

 

Why is everyone on the "Sale's health is questionable" wagon? Until he actually suffers from health problems and is injured, that excuse is invalid. Just like the whole "Well, Feliz did it, so Sale can too". Feliz HASN'T started for the Rangers yet in 2011, so he can't be used as an example of success either.

 

Also, obviously Sale is more explosive out of the pen. That can be said for ANY pitcher. In the 'pen you can throw much harder, and the hitter will likely only see you once in the game, so that's the pitchers advantage as well.

 

And Flowers obviously is useless now, but I was referring to last year, where Flowers came off a tremendous season in 2009, and some people wanted him on the team as the backup catcher and to be in the DH role with Jones and Kotsay. However, this was not done because the better route was to let Flowers develop in AAA and work on his skills rather than sit on the bench and get half the innings he would have if he was starting full time in AAA. Obviously pitchers =/= catchers, but the idea is the same that you want your youngster in an environment where he can work 100% towards his goal.

Edited January 11, 2011 by JoeCoolMan24

[Balta1701]

Why is everyone on the "Sale's health is questionable" wagon? Until he actually suffers from health problems and is injured, that excuse is invalid. Just like the whole "Well, Feliz did it, so Sale can too". Feliz HASN'T started for the Rangers yet in 2011, so he can't be used as an example of success either.

This one is simple mechanics. At this point, the world has some idea of what mechanics increase pitchers levels of risk for elbow injury, because we have legitimately large sample sizes. Sale's mechanics fall into that category. He may well pitch forever without injury issues...but if he does, he'd be in the minority.

[Leonard Washington]

"I have the ultimate respect for White Sox fans. They were as miserable as the Cubs and Red Sox fans ever were but always had the good decency to keep it to themselves. And when they finally won the World Series, they celebrated without annoying every other fan in the country."

 

- Jim Caple from his latest article updating the team misery indexes. Put this quote in my sig.

[Balta1701]

"I have the ultimate respect for White Sox fans. They were as miserable as the Cubs and Red Sox fans ever were but always had the good decency to keep it to themselves. And when they finally won the World Series, they celebrated without annoying every other fan in the country."

 

- Jim Caple from his latest article updating the team misery indexes. Put this quote in my sig.

[chw42]

"I have the ultimate respect for White Sox fans. They were as miserable as the Cubs and Red Sox fans ever were but always had the good decency to keep it to themselves. And when they finally won the World Series, they celebrated without annoying every other fan in the country."

 

- Jim Caple from his latest article updating the team misery indexes. Put this quote in my sig.

 

Trudat.

[LittleHurt05]

"I have the ultimate respect for White Sox fans. They were as miserable as the Cubs and Red Sox fans ever were but always had the good decency to keep it to themselves. And when they finally won the World Series, they celebrated without annoying every other fan in the country."

 

- Jim Caple from his latest article updating the team misery indexes. Put this quote in my sig.

 

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