Justin Upton

[Kenny Hates Prospects]

Ken Griffey Jr

19 - .264/.329/.420/.748 108 OPS+

20 - .300/.366/.481/.847 135 OPS+

21 - .327/.399/.527/.926 155 OPS+

22 - .308/.361/.535/.896 149 OPS+

 

Justin Upton

19 - .221/.283/.364/.647 62 OPS+

20 - .250/.353/.463/.816 106 OPS+

21 - .300/.366/.532/.899 129 OPS+

22 - .273/.356/.442/.799 111 OPS+

 

He's obviously not quite Griffey, but Griffey was also one of the best of all time. I would say he appears to be one solid step below Griffey, but it's not like that would be mediocre. He's still very young and he's established himself as a good hitter already who could still end up being phenomenal. There's a ton of value in that. He hasn't even gotten close to entering his prime years yet.

 

I don't think Upton will be dealt. Towers is waiting for a package that is going to blow him away, and I don't think anyone is going to provide that. The team that probably has the best chance to acquire him would be Kansas City...we'll see whether or not Moore even wants to go there.

 

(FWIW, I really don't think Clay Buccholz would be a huge get. I think he's probably a solid #2 this year, but his ERA should have been higher this year. If anything, this year was more of a correction in his career stats between his previous 2 seasons where he gave up a ton of homers while still striking people out. He's good, but he's not nearly as valuable as Justin Upton)

Seriously that is a terrible comparison all the way around. Upton may be potentially great but Griffey is one of the greatest to ever play the game, maybe even the best, and there's no way anyone should ever be compared to him. Furthermore their skillsets don't even come close. Griffey was a better fielder, better arm, much better contact guy, he walked more, better raw power, left-handed... I mean Jesus this is horrible as a comparison. And the bottom line is still that Upton isn't guaranteed to do anything. His brother has fallen off a cliff and his other brother did the same years ago. Anyone who would give up twice the talent Upton is worth has no business running a Major League organization.

[Leonard Washington]

I agree. But not THAT much more valuable and I'm probably biased towards Upton.

 

Look, in the American League and in the Cell, a now-25 John Danks - a lefty - did this over the last three seasons:

2008: 195 IP, 1.226 WHIP, 8.4 H/9, 0.7 HR/9, 2.6 BB/9, 7.3 K/9

2009: 200.1 IP, 1.283 WHIP, 8.3 H/9, 1.3 HR/9, 3.3 BB/9, 6.7 K/9

2010: 213 IP, 1.216 WHIP, 8.0 H/9, 0.8 HR/9, 3.0 BB/9, 6.8 K/9

 

This kid is f***ing good. Go float his name over on the DBacks board (wherever that is) as the centerpiece of an Upton deal and I guarantee the fans over there will not laugh at you.

I think you've misunderstood some stuff though. I know he's good...and I did have him as the centerpiece of an Upton deal. I had him, Quentin (who was being discussed as a borderline non tender candidate), Santos (a solid, young RP), and 2 prospect with some decent sized question marks.

 

And I still think that was too much. I wasn't suggesting that's what we offer. I was saying I think that's what they'll ask for. They've pretty much made it public they're not trading Upton unless the return is huge. Morosi at Fox Sports said he's heard they want to "win" any trade they make, or they're not making it.

[Kenny Hates Prospects]

I think you've misunderstood some stuff though. I know he's good...and I did have him as the centerpiece of an Upton deal. I had him, Quentin (who was being discussed as a borderline non tender candidate), Santos (a solid, young RP), and 2 prospect with some decent sized question marks.

 

And I still think that was too much. I wasn't suggesting that's what we offer. I was saying I think that's what they'll ask for. They've pretty much made it public they're not trading Upton unless the return is huge. Morosi at Fox Sports said he's heard they want to "win" any trade they make, or they're not making it.

But see, if they're "listening" this long on Upton it's because they have reason to believe he's not what the rest of the league seems to think he is. As far as any trade goes, yes they'll ask for and receive a major haul, but let's try to add this up here.

 

Even if Upton ends up being a .290 35 110 guy for us who gets it in the OF and gets on at a .380 clip or thereabouts, I mean just a fantastic player, then is that worth more than a guy in Danks who could contend for the NL Cy Young PLUS 5 years of a closer + some pretty freaking talented prospects? You already know what you're getting in Danks and it's very good, and you have a pretty nice idea of what you're getting in Santos because he's had a year in the bigs under his belt (and he is not going to be seen as just some ordinary reliever by the rest of the league) and on top of that you're still getting a potential Kendry Morales in Viciedo and who knows what else beyond that. In terms of "winning" a trade, that's getting off to a pretty good start.

 

Edit: got off track here, lol. But the above offer is crazy already, without even getting into your full offer, and I doubt they'd ask more than that since this "listening" period seems to indicate a real willingness to move Upton in the first place.

Edited November 19, 2010 by Kenny Hates Prospects

[Leonard Washington]

Well the kicker with Danks is that he's only team controllable for 2 more season. If he had a Gavin Floyd contract it would be different. With everyone else we would be giving them (Quentin included) it's primarily about potential. I suppose the same could be said about Upton, except the potential with Upton is HOF, whereas nobody else can realistically say that. And sure, Viciedo could be Kendry Morales. That's the fun with prospects. Eduardo Escobar could be Omar Vizquel. But the reality is both Viciedo and Mitchell are borderline top-100 prospect guys, not blue chippers.

 

And again, not advocating we make the trade I suggested. Just saying I think that's the type of deal they'll want.

 

I think they're making his availability so public for a reason, hoping some team will crack at the thought of his potential. I peg the chances of him actually being dealt at about 10 percent.

Edited November 19, 2010 by Pale Sox

[Kenny Hates Prospects]

Well the kicker with Danks is that he's only team controllable for 2 more season. If he had a Gavin Floyd contract it would be different. With everyone else we would be giving them (Quentin included) it's primarily about potential. I suppose the same could be said about Upton, except the potential with Upton is HOF, whereas nobody else can realistically say that. And sure, Viciedo could be Kendry Morales. That's the fun with prospects. Eduardo Escobar could be Omar Vizquel. But the reality is both Viciedo and Mitchell are borderline top-100 prospect guys, not blue chippers.

 

And again, not advocating we make the trade I suggested. Just saying I think that's the type of deal they'll want.

 

I think they're making his availability so public for a reason, hoping some team will crack at the thought of his potential. I peg the chances of him actually being dealt at about 10 percent.

I disagree with this.

 

I think this "listening" thing is Kevin Towers having serious thoughts about Upton's down year last year and wanting to know how much talent he could extract from him. IMO this "listening" period doesn't happen unless Towers really does kind of want to make a deal. I mean if it were nothing but listening and that's it then why would half the league be engaging in conversations? Why would this be the center of the baseball universe right now? Why would Towers want his star player and franchise cornerstone sitting at home wondering where he's going to play next year? Remember how Kenny last year called Gordon Beckham and asked him if it was okay to trade for Teahen and move Gordon to second? You don't just let this stuff happen if there's no real intent there. And we're talking about a team that just traded Dan Haren.

 

And it doesn't matter what Towers is going to ask for. Asking doesn't mean anything, and we're using the wrong word here. It's settling for that we care about. What is the very least amount of talent, in the end, that he'll take for Upton? He's a GM let's remember. He's got all this stuff figured out. He'll look at a guy like Danks and say "this guy would make our rotation a whole lot better and help us contend next year" and then on top of it he's going to put some kind of numerical value on that player. The statheads all love their WAR stuff and maybe he's one of them. He may have his own system kind of like FanGraphs uses, except actually a sensible one, that puts a monetary value on performance. But Towers, whatever his system is, is going to come up with some sort of real value in terms of performance that tells him how another current MLB player compares with Upton while factoring in years remaining and contract value, extendability, etc. He'll likely come up with some kind of number, he's not going to just blindly make a move on feel. Because he already knows he is likely trading the best player in the deal, he will need to come up with some total of real, on-field performance in the form of a proven player *and then* acquire enough speculative value beyond that to make the deal work.

 

Now if Towers is already thinking of making a deal then he's not going to drag his franchise player through an offseason full of trade rumors unless he actually believes he may get whatever type of value he's searching for. Again, we need to remember that he's a GM. He talks to other GMs all year long and has done so for a long time. He's not going to waste other GMs time. He's not going to want to piss them off by playing hard to get, nor does he want to insult them. He's not going to be asking a whole lot more beyond what he'd expect another team to ask for in the same situation. So this ridiculous "it'll take 5,000 All-Stars to get Upton" stuff isn't going to be a factor. And my guess would be that the other GMs who are quoting Towers' price as being ridiculous probably are saying more about their own thoughts on Upton than they are about his asking price.

 

But anyway, I think Upton is really on the table and it's the type of deal that other teams can definitely make. Towers isn't going to be stringing anyone along. And the Sox are actually a pretty good partner - maybe one of the best partners - because Kenny and Towers have had a working relationship (Peavy deal) in the past and Kenny's staff and Towers' staff have dealt with each other a lot in the past with prior deals. It actually seems like half the time we make deals we're making them with Arizona.

[Leonard Washington]

I guess all I have to say to that is we feel differently about his approach. I agree in that I don't think Towers is the type of GM to be deceitful about his intentions. I don't think he's stringing people along. From everything available to the public he's made it more than clear he's asking for the moon. So long as he's making himself clear, he's not leading anybody on by any means.

 

And in terms of WAR and all that, from what I know about Towers is he's an old school scout-based guy. That being said, Danks is a favourite of scouts as well so I don't think that's a big deal.

 

But like I said in my initial post, I don't think the Sox are a good fit. I agree they've had a ton of past deals with ARI (plus the Peavy deal), but I don't think the two teams match up all too well in terms of players. Other teams simply have a lot more depth to work with.

[Kenny Hates Prospects]

I guess all I have to say to that is we feel differently about his approach. I agree in that I don't think Towers is the type of GM to be deceitful about his intentions. I don't think he's stringing people along. From everything available to the public he's made it more than clear he's asking for the moon. So long as he's making himself clear, he's not leading anybody on by any means.

 

And in terms of WAR and all that, from what I know about Towers is he's an old school scout-based guy. That being said, Danks is a favourite of scouts as well so I don't think that's a big deal.

 

But like I said in my initial post, I don't think the Sox are a good fit. I agree they've had a ton of past deals with ARI (plus the Peavy deal), but I don't think the two teams match up all too well in terms of players. Other teams simply have a lot more depth to work with.

I don't think matching up is going to be much of a factor here. I don't think Towers is going to say "we need to fill holes X, Y, and Z so we'll only trade Upton if we can fill those three holes." I think he'll look at the package that nets him the most amount of talent both now and in the future.

 

He's asking for a lot, but a lot in baseball FO terms is different from what constitutes a lot in fans eyes. We sit here and speculate on players largely based on what we've read and what other people say. It's easy for a fan to laugh at, say, Viciedo being a key to a deal. Fans can say "oh, this guy has proven nothing, he's not more valuable than so-and-so who is ranked higher in BP" but Towers and co. are the ones out there watching these guys. Towers was a fan of Richard and that's working out well for the Pads. They actually got a pretty good deal in retrospect given Peavy's contract and the amount of time he's been on the DL, even though many including myself thought that was an absolute steal for Kenny from a talent perspective. We really don't know, but I think it's safe to say one of these super mega fantasy deals are not going to happen. Towers isn't going to waste his time chasing rainbows when he has a club to run.

[Leonard Washington]

It's just an inconvenient matchup.

 

Beckham is probably our most valuable position player, but Kelly Johnson had a great season.

 

Alexei probably comes second, but Stephen Drew is there.

 

Morel is nice, but they've got a 3b.

 

All those guys they have are tradeable, but I doubt they're going to want to make one major deal that forces their hand into another trade. They're not going to want to lose leverage on trading any of those three other guys. And on our side, we don't have many areas where we can trade away big pieces (if any). We might have the least depth of any team in baseball.

 

We have good starters, but we're not exactly "deep" in terms of pitching because our farm system is so barren. The pitchers we have are nice, but it's basically feast or famine with us.

 

It just doesn't seem to fit. There's a lot of teams that can put together a better package (that they're comfortable with) than we can.

 

And on a side note.....I'm enjoying the discussion. I generally avoid internet stuff because too many people aren't worth having a discussion with.

Edited November 19, 2010 by Pale Sox

[Kenny Hates Prospects]

It's just an inconvenient matchup.

 

Beckham is probably our most valuable position player, but Kelly Johnson had a great season.

 

Alexei probably comes second, but Stephen Drew is there.

 

Morel is nice, but they've got a 3b.

 

All those guys they have are tradeable, but I doubt they're going to want to make one major deal that forces their hand into another trade. They're not going to want to lose leverage on trading any of those three other guys. And on our side, we don't have many areas where we can trade away big pieces (if any). We might have the least depth of any team in baseball.

 

We have good starters, but we're not exactly "deep" in terms of pitching because our farm system is so barren. The pitchers we have are nice, but it's basically feast or famine with us.

 

It just doesn't seem to fit. There's a lot of teams that can put together a better package (that they're comfortable with) than we can.

 

And on a side note.....I'm enjoying the discussion. I generally avoid internet stuff because too many people aren't worth having a discussion with.

I don't think we'd put Beckham in the deal anyway. Ditto with Alexei.

 

Morel I actually see them being very interested in. Reynolds is probably next out the door.

 

Positionally we don't have a ton of depth, but in the rotation we do. Most teams have to scramble for decent 4th starters and we have 5 that are sick, plus a legitimate LH starter prospect sitting there behind it. And even Freddy wants to come back, and he could be the 7th. We have depth there.

 

The pitching in the minors is pretty bleak, but I'm not so sure that would matter in this situation. Like I said before, I think if an Upton deal occurs the talent will win out regardless of position. You mentioned Drew, but if they can trade Haren and Upton they can trade anyone on that team making money. If some team comes along with a package headed by a SS, and Towers thinks that SS is the best player offered to him period, and the surrounding talent is also good enough, I think Towers will make that deal and then trade Drew to open SS up. Now if we happen to make the best offer it'll be because of Floyd or Danks heading the package IMO, and at that point we'd just offer as much talent as we had to in order to close the deal. In that scenario it might actually be advantageous for us since we could offer something that they would immediately have room for which would boost their contention chances.

 

Yeah, I like the conversation too. I don't do it as often anymore because most people on this board hate me. lol.

[Leonard Washington]

I think again we're just looking at the same subject from different angles.

 

I think (and correct me if I'm wrong) you're saying that we could plausibly make a deal for Upton. I don't think you're wrong if that's the case.

 

But I'm trying guess the probability, and I just don't see it happening in our case. I suspect it will take an absolute ton to get Upton (as it should) and I don't think we're in a place to give what they want. Sure, we have the pieces I guess, but I don't see us being able to afford the cost.

 

If I was a betting man I would say the Blue Jays get him. I worked under AA for a little bit, and he absolutely LOVES him. He's rated as an 80 on his scouting board.

 

As for the whole "worked under AA thing", that looks pretentious in hindsight. But I don't mean it in that way. I'm not an expert. But I doubt there's a team that's a better fit and has a better means of acquiring him than the Jays. That's all.

Edited November 19, 2010 by Pale Sox

[Kenny Hates Prospects]

I'd pick the Jays to get him too. They have tons of young pitching.

 

Yes, I believe we have the talent to get Upton.

 

The probability - who knows? We really can't tell since we don't even know what direction Kenny is going in yet. I think we could afford the cost *if* the focus is on winning in 2011 with Buehrle and Jackson, and in 2012 with Peavy. If we win then, the whole picture changes. If however Kenny decides on prioritizing winning in say 2012 and forwards while running out a good but kind of in between team this year, then I don't think Kenny sees us as able to afford it.

 

And still, it all comes down to Towers. He'll be offered tons of talent and I think that will be all that matters in the end. I know though that if Kenny does want to get serious and make a truly competitive offer, Towers will definitely recognize the talent we have. We wouldn't just get blown out of the water by Boston like everyone seems to think whenever we covet a player they do.

 

Interesting about Upton. Were you in the office or something? That's pretty cool.

[Leonard Washington]

I'd pick the Jays to get him too. They have tons of young pitching.

 

Yes, I believe we have the talent to get Upton.

 

The probability - who knows? We really can't tell since we don't even know what direction Kenny is going in yet. I think we could afford the cost *if* the focus is on winning in 2011 with Buehrle and Jackson, and in 2012 with Peavy. If we win then, the whole picture changes. If however Kenny decides on prioritizing winning in say 2012 and forwards while running out a good but kind of in between team this year, then I don't think Kenny sees us as able to afford it.

 

And still, it all comes down to Towers. He'll be offered tons of talent and I think that will be all that matters in the end. I know though that if Kenny does want to get serious and make a truly competitive offer, Towers will definitely recognize the talent we have. We wouldn't just get blown out of the water by Boston like everyone seems to think whenever we covet a player they do.

 

Interesting about Upton. Were you in the office or something? That's pretty cool.

Yeah, I agree we could conceivably get Upton. But with the whole Boston thing (which sucks because I hate the other Sox) they're depth is embarassingly better than ours is. My point I guess is that I don't see KW willing to give up what they'll want. And that's probably a good thing, even though I'm a big J.Upton fan.

 

I was in the front office. I wasn't assistant GM or anything cool like that obviously. I was the intern...the guy that's in charge of keeping his boards updated and doing research where he saw fit. I did some cool s*** (the coolest was player research for guys they were interested in...especially cool when they get the guy - Brandon Morrow for example) but also tedious stuff life scout expenses and whatnot. Either way, when you're a Canadian looking to get into baseball....it was a good start. If only they were in hiring mode....still working on that.

 

But again, I'm not trying to position myself as some superior judge of talent. We're all baseball fans. The best scouts I met while I was with Toronto were the humble ones. It's the humble ones (when you look at their signing history) that sign the best players.

Edited November 19, 2010 by Pale Sox

[Kenny Hates Prospects]

Yeah, I agree we could conceivably get Upton. But with the whole Boston thing (which sucks because I hate the other Sox) they're depth is embarassingly better than ours is. My point I guess is that I don't see KW willing to give up what they'll want. And that's probably a good thing, even though I'm a big J.Upton fan.

 

I was in the front office. I wasn't assistant GM or anything cool like that obviously. I was the intern...the guy that's in charge of keeping his boards updated and doing research where he saw fit. I did some cool s*** (the coolest was player research for guys they were interested in...especially cool when they get the guy - Brandon Morrow for example) but also tedious stuff life scout expenses and whatnot. Either way, when you're a Canadian looking to get into baseball....it was a good start. If only they were in hiring mode....still working on that.

 

But again, I'm not trying to position myself as some superior judge of talent. We're all baseball fans. The best scouts I met while I was with Toronto were the humble ones. It's the humble ones (when you look at their signing history) that sign the best players.

I hate the Red Sox too, in fact I actually hate them more than the Cubs. But it's hard to look at their system (and not just that, but the way they run their business in general) and not be a tad envious. They are a lot deeper but their depth is always overstated because they, like anyone else, have a certain point where they will hang up the phone, and just because they may have some better prospects doesn't mean they are going to trade them. And just because BA sees so-and-so as some awesome prospect who is going to tear it up in the future doesn't mean that Joe Blow who is No. 1 in GM X's ear sees it the same way.

 

Yeah you're probably right that Kenny won't give up what Towers wants since the odds are going to be against us no matter what. And BTW you know there's some mystery team in there like Texas that could very well look to make a splash whatever the cost should the Yankees steal Cliff Lee away. But still, I think whether Kenny would part with the cost all depends on which direction he wants to take. I happen to think he could simply because from the early rumors it appears he's willing to talk about Danks or Floyd, and if you're willing to part with them then you're already willing to part with a ton of young talent as it is.

 

That's still pretty cool you were an intern and got to do the research. It's better than any job I've ever had, even better than selling drugs! Sucks you're Canadian though, lol. Just kidding. But researching Brandon Morrow - that actually sounds pretty fun. I really like the guy they traded to get him too, Brandon League. I think the Sox will end up with him eventually.

[Leonard Washington]

If you're trying to break into baseball...being Canadian does suck. No offense taken. And I agree about League. It's not often you find a guy that throws a 97mph sinker. But in AA's exact words after the deal..."we f***ing stole that guy"

 

If it's any credit to the influence of online chatter...he was genuinely concerned that internet criticism would cause Jack Z to back out of the deal.

 

Trust me....they read this stuff.

Edited November 19, 2010 by Pale Sox

[Kenny Hates Prospects]

If you're trying to break into baseball...being Canadian does suck. No offense taken. And I agree about League. It's not often you find a guy that throws a 97mph sinker. But in AA's exact words after the deal..."we f***ing stole that guy"

 

If it's any credit to the influence of online chatter...he was genuinely concerned that internet criticism would cause Jack Z to back out of the deal.

 

Trust me....they read this stuff.

Dude that is awesome. I hope Kenny has read all my hatred directed at Mark Teahen, every single bit of it. I hated that deal the moment it was made and I hate it more by the day. Ditto with the Pierre deal, although I've softened on that. But I still hate it. I really hope he reads some of the s*** that gets posted here. Except that anti-AJ BS. I hope he reads none of that, but every bit of the stuff I've gone on about like how Tyler Flowers blows and would be a joke as our starting C. Although maybe he reads nothing because like every Sox fan on the planet was pissed about opening 2009 with Dewayne Wise as our starting CF and he didn't do jack about that.

 

But that's pretty cool about Morrow though. At the time that was seen as a fairly even swap with maybe even an edge to the Ms since Morrow wasn't making strides. But Morrow showed this year that he's starting to get it, and he may be in for a big 2012. AA did pretty well for himself there. That has to be pretty sweet knowing you had a little bit of involvement there.

[Leonard Washington]

Dude that is awesome. I hope Kenny has read all my hatred directed at Mark Teahen, every single bit of it. I hated that deal the moment it was made and I hate it more by the day. Ditto with the Pierre deal, although I've softened on that. But I still hate it. I really hope he reads some of the s*** that gets posted here. Except that anti-AJ BS. I hope he reads none of that, but every bit of the stuff I've gone on about like how Tyler Flowers blows and would be a joke as our starting C. Although maybe he reads nothing because like every Sox fan on the planet was pissed about opening 2009 with Dewayne Wise as our starting CF and he didn't do jack about that.

 

But that's pretty cool about Morrow though. At the time that was seen as a fairly even swap with maybe even an edge to the Ms since Morrow wasn't making strides. But Morrow showed this year that he's starting to get it, and he may be in for a big 2012. AA did pretty well for himself there. That has to be pretty sweet knowing you had a little bit of involvement there.

I can't say for KW, but AA reads the blogs. That's a major part of his appeal. He's a fan-friendly GM. He's essentially the anti-KW. But don't ever doubt his baseball smarts. He's an absolute best in terms of baseball smarts.

 

LOL I do take some satisfaction, but realistically, the deal would have likely happened either way. there was a TON of deals that didn't happen (some of which involved the white sox) and my goal is to have more influence than i've had. there's deals that almost happened involving the sox.

[Kenny Hates Prospects]

Okay so what deals almost happened with the Sox?

 

And I think Kenny probably doesn't care what anyone thinks.

[balfanman]

Hey Pale Sox; I think that it is pretty cool to get just a little inside information, but I realize that you just can't go talking about everything. My question is what brought you to a White Sox board? Is this your team now and can I ask why you chose the good Sox?

[witesoxfan]

just for kicks and jigs, here's how Upton compares to Andruw Jones (again, just offensively...Andruw brought other added value, like the fact that he arguably the greatest defensive CFer of all time)

 

Justin Upton

19 - .221/.283/.364/.647 62 OPS+

20 - .250/.353/.463/.816 106 OPS+

21 - .300/.366/.532/.899 129 OPS+

22 - .273/.356/.442/.799 111 OPS+

 

Andruw Jones

19 - .217/.265/.443/.709 79 OPS+

20 - .231/.329/.416/.745 93 OPS+

21 - .271/.321/.515/.836 116 OPS+

22 - .275/.365/.483/.848 113 OPS+

 

I would say that Upton grades out better than Jones does offensively, and Jones was a 30-40 homer a year guy.

 

Upton also compares well with Jose Canseco, and if he could be the hitter Canseco was without doing steroids, that would be worth a huge package as well.

 

Upton is being marketed as an .850-.900 OPS type hitter at age 23 who has the ability to improve beyond that into a potential MVP candidate through growth, maturity as a hitter, and proper development. I doubt that he ever actually gets to that point unless he can begin to make more contact , but he's still incredibly valuable.

 

I'm not positive it was discussed...I didn't read through your guys' whole conversation, only bits and pieces...but it's possible that Towers is shopping him not because he necessarily wants to deal him or thinks that there is something mechanically wrong with his swing but instead because he realizes that he's an incredibly valuable property, Arizona could be as many as 3 years away from fielding a competitive team, and thinks that he could jumpstart his rebuilding process by dealing away Upton for a solid package of prospects. He might view Upton as a 4 WAR player, but if he can get three 2.5 WAR players who are even cheaper, he's going to do it.

 

The reason Danks is not as attractive as Upton is because of the Edwin Jackson argument. He's probably a more valuable player at this point in their careers, but he's 2 years away from free agency instead of 5, and he's more expensive in the short run too - Danks will probably make anywhere between $16-20 million in the next two years, while Upton is going to cost $20.75 in the next 3, and then Upton is signed 2 years beyond that.

 

Maybe some team bites. I don't see it happening, but it's certainly possible.

[Balta1701]

I'm not positive it was discussed...I didn't read through your guys' whole conversation, only bits and pieces...but it's possible that Towers is shopping him not because he necessarily wants to deal him or thinks that there is something mechanically wrong with his swing but instead because he realizes that he's an incredibly valuable property, Arizona could be as many as 3 years away from fielding a competitive team, and thinks that he could jumpstart his rebuilding process by dealing away Upton for a solid package of prospects. He might view Upton as a 4 WAR player, but if he can get three 2.5 WAR players who are even cheaper, he's going to do it.

Wite...I gotta say, if a GM is coming into a place like Arizona and thinking "I'm 3+ years away from competing", he's setting himself up for failure. Especially in that division, there's no reason why a team needs a 3 year rebuilding plan.

[witesoxfan]

Wite...I gotta say, if a GM is coming into a place like Arizona and thinking "I'm 3+ years away from competing", he's setting himself up for failure. Especially in that division, there's no reason why a team needs a 3 year rebuilding plan.

 

Maybe not 3 years from competing, but 3 years from the ultimate goal. They don't have much pitching at all, which is why DiPito was trying to bring in as much as he could when he dealt Haren and Jackson. They used the likes of Bob Howry, Dontrelle Willis, Kris Benson, and Mike Hampton at different times throughout the year - Rodrigo Lopez was the only pitcher to throw 200 innings! If this were 2003, they'd have been in the playoffs.

 

That organization still needs pitching in a bad way, and dealing Upton may be a great way to bring in some big arms.

[Balta1701]

That organization still needs pitching in a bad way, and dealing Upton may be a great way to bring in some big arms.

Now that I can believe completely. However, if I'm in that seat, I'm doing so with an eye towards 2011 possibly and 2012 definitely. If they got good years out of say, Mark Reynolds, Stephen Drew, and Daniel Hudson, that division is right there for the taking next year.

[kwolf68]

I don't see us being a fit. Our most valuable position players (Alexei/Beckham) play positions they already have filled with competent players, our best prospect can't be traded until June, our other prospects aren't that good for the most part, and we aren't in a position to deal more than 1 starter or reliever (if any).

 

I would guess the DBacks would want something along the lines of Danks1, Quentin, Santos, Mitchell, Viciedo.

 

If they don't get blown away they have no reason to trade him.

 

 

You're probably right about this deal and if that's the case we should exit negotiations right now. If dumping our prospects keep up, then I may have a chance to make the Sox farm system...despite the highest I ever peaked was 'being asked to walk on' at a very small DivIII college...and oh yea, I'm 40. The dream can still be alive.

[Eminor3rd]

If I was Towers, I'd be looking to deal Upton. The reasoning? Too many eggs in one basket.

 

Even if Upton hits his ceiling (.285/.370/.580/40/125 maybe?), that team is several large pieces from competing. The pitching staff is in shambles, and they're shopping Reynolds and looking to Juan Miranda or Brandon Allen at first at the moment. All signs are pointing to competing in 2012 at the earliest, and if he can extract surplus prospect value out of moving Upton, and spread that value around the field instead of leaving it all in RF, I think he comes out a winner easily.

 

Upton will probably be a great player, but there's a lot of risk involved, too. If Upton fizzles out, and Towers had a shot at 5 great prospects in a year where he wasn't going to win anyway, all of a sudden holding onto him becomes a really bad move.

 

It's just a matter of diversifying assets, IMO.

Edited November 20, 2010 by Eminor3rd

[ChiliIrishHammock24]

Upton has an extremely limited NO TRADE CLAUSE. Can not be traded to A's, Royals, Indians, or Tigers w/o permission. This is great news for us.