OBAMA/TRUMPCARE MEGATHREAD

[caulfield12]

The reason why we need single payer and a shared risk pool of all Americans and not by individual state...not to mention the GOP can simply block the stabilization subsidies and then turn around and argue ObamaCare is a failure.

 

The only other way is mandating everyone at least have some form of catastrophic insurance, but that would still be a disaster for those needing essentially services or basically anyone sick or dying. At any rate, the AHCA isn't designed to solve the following AZ problem either, as it will only exacerbate the following problem.

 

HHS data also indicates that average benchmark exchange premiums rose by 25 percent in 2017.3 In many areas around the country, premiums are going up by much more. For example, Arizona has seen a 116 percent increase in premiums for these plans.4 Further, more than a quarter of exchange enrollees were over age 55.5 Because of the relatively high ages and associated high health costs of these enrollees, several insurers have expressed concern that the market has become unstable and will likely worsen in coming years if these trends are not reversed. That is, as premiums increase, younger and healthier enrollees may decline to enroll, while older, less healthy enrollees stay in the system. Without enough younger, healthier enrollees to balance the risk of older, sicker enrollees, premiums could continue to increase rapidly. Fear and uncertainty around market stability has led to the exit of several major insurers from exchange markets across the country.

 

 

http://www.communicatingforamerica.org/wp-...g-Rationale.pdf

Edited March 23, 2017 by caulfield12

[StrangeSox]

Trump done negotiating, demands vote tomorrow, will move on from healthcare entirely if it fails

 

https://twitter.com/BresPolitico/status/845058159517585409

[StrangeSox]

Final bill will be managers amendment plus essential health benefits repeal.

 

https://twitter.com/mikedebonis/status/8450...src=twsrc%5Etfw

 

Giving the Hfc almost all of what they want but still not enough while also angering the less conservative GOP members by completely ignoring them.

Edited March 24, 2017 by StrangeSox

[caulfield12]

In hindsight, it's quite obvious what the GOP SHOULD have done.

 

One up or down vote on repealing the ACA.

 

THEN, you force the Tuesday and House Freedom Caucus members to actually work together on replacing ObamaCare, where all the members have skin in the game and own the disastrous result if they can't even work together within their own party.

 

Now, you have a situation of the "blame game" where everyone simply avoids taking responsibility for the consequences of not simply improving the ACA, whereas now they can simply do everything possible to sabotage ObamaCare and then turn around and say, "gee, look, it's failing, it's the fault of the Dems (and we had no responsibility during those past 7 years to work together in a bipartisan way to fix it."

 

Of course, the GOP will turn around and argue that the strategy of obstruction and complaining about Obama was effective and led to "victories" in almost every two year election cycle except for the 2012 Presidential. They're confusing those victories with the American people wanting the AHCA, and they're DEFINITELY not the same thing. ACA popularity was around 47% in a recent poll, with the AHCA at 30% and falling like a rock in recent days.

 

 

 

 

[StrangeSox]

No cbo score on the final bill

[LittleHurt05]

Trump done negotiating, demands vote tomorrow, will move on from healthcare entirely if it fails

 

https://twitter.com/BresPolitico/status/845058159517585409

 

The world's greatest businessman hard at work. Or is it the people's President fighting for what's right?

 

Such a puppet...

[G&T]

In hindsight, it's quite obvious what the GOP SHOULD have done.

 

One up or down vote on repealing the ACA.

 

THEN, you force the Tuesday and House Freedom Caucus members to actually work together on replacing ObamaCare, where all the members have skin in the game and own the disastrous result if they can't even work together within their own party.

 

Now, you have a situation of the "blame game" where everyone simply avoids taking responsibility for the consequences of not simply improving the ACA, whereas now they can simply do everything possible to sabotage ObamaCare and then turn around and say, "gee, look, it's failing, it's the fault of the Dems (and we had no responsibility during those past 7 years to work together in a bipartisan way to fix it."

 

Of course, the GOP will turn around and argue that the strategy of obstruction and complaining about Obama was effective and led to "victories" in almost every two year election cycle except for the 2012 Presidential. They're confusing those victories with the American people wanting the AHCA, and they're DEFINITELY not the same thing. ACA popularity was around 47% in a recent poll, with the AHCA at 30% and falling like a rock in recent days.

 

Pretty sure freedom caucus doesn't want any federal health care. They gladly would have held out to screw everyone.

[caulfield12]

A Quinnipiac University poll released Thursday showed that the Republican plan starts out in a deep hole. Just 17 percent of Americans say they approve of the GOP bill, compared with 56 percent who say they disapprove. The remaining 26 percent say they are undecided.

The lowest approval level for the Affordable Care Act in any Washington Post-ABC News poll was 39 percent, with the highest disapproval 57 percent. The worst net negative recorded in those polls was minus-18 points. The Quinnipiac survey puts the net negative for the Republican plan at more than double that number, or minus-39 points.

 

https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/a-p...m=.93da0dcd98ff

 

 

 

 

Pretty sure freedom caucus doesn't want any federal health care. They gladly would have held out to screw everyone.

 

It's hard to imagine their (the HFC) districts are so "bulletproof" that they could basically just do whatever they want to without any repercussions in terms of re-election from their districts, but it's certainly possible (especially if the Kochs are going to subsidize them for voting no).

 

That's one key difference between the two parties. The Democrats fell in line for the ACA, and it cost many of them politically. Meanwhile, the 35ish member HFC is willing to screw over their entire party to basically obstruct or end up with nothing at all for another 200ish members of Congress. What kind of (good) governance is that?

 

 

http://www.politico.com/story/2017/03/trum...lth-care-236418

Trump Demands Friday Up or Down Vote from House

But the Trump-Ryan gambit may pay off. Freedom Caucus Chairman Mark Meadows (R-N.C.) said the move by Trump and Ryan “certainly does” put enormous pressure on the Freedom Caucus to get behind the bill. And already a handful sounded like their positions were softer than they had been before.

 

Rep. Trent Franks (R-Ariz.), who said he remains undecided, added that efforts by the Freedom Caucus had “improved the bill.” Rep. Mark Sanford (R-S.C.) said members will feel more pressure to vote "yes" with the bill on the floor, even if they may have felt comfortable opposing it before. Sanford said he was undecided.

 

Rep. Scott DesJarlais (R-Tenn.) was a "no" but is now undecided.

 

"I've got to decide whether this is best for my district and best for the president and best for my country. And I'm not convinced it will bend the cost curve down... but it may be as good as it gets on this one," DesJarlais said.

 

“We get elected to make votes, and this is a big vote,” added Rep. Joe Barton (R-Texas), a Freedom Caucus member who supports the bill and called it “the right thing to do.

Edited March 24, 2017 by caulfield12

[caulfield12]

http://www.vox.com/2017/3/23/15044354/ahca-plan-friday-vote

"The Republican Health Care plan is totally nuts"

 

By the way, 34 against the AHCA is the whip count now

Edited March 24, 2017 by caulfield12

[RockRaines]

Changing the entire bill last minute behind closed doors. Now these are guys you can trust.

[NorthSideSox72]

Changing the entire bill last minute behind closed doors. Now these are guys you can trust.

I mean, let's be honest, ACA's final form came out last minute and after lots of back room crap too. In that sense it's no different, methodologically.

 

[StrangeSox]

ACA came out after about a year's worth of debate, and all of the major features in the bill had been in place for awhile. The backroom deal that conservatives love to cite, the "Cornhusker Kickback," didn't actually make it into the final bill. There were a bunch of procedural hurdles it jumped through in order to bypass the filibuster in the Senate, but the framework for the bill had been pretty well settled for a while prior to the House and Senate votes. A long and boring history of the ACA passage can be found here.

This bill is not like that. They were making major, fundamental changes multiple times yesterday, possibly more today, and they're going to try to rush it through the House without even having a CBO score and after about a week's worth of debate.

 

There's a lot of unsightly sausage-making even in routine legislation, but the AHCA is something unique. Republicans are on a deadline because their window to pass this under reconciliation closes in mid-April, and they really want/need the AHCA spending and tax cuts in place to serve as a baseline for the further deep tax cuts they want to enact when they move to tax reform. If they can't clear this hurdle, it puts the other major items on their legislative agenda at risk.

Edited March 24, 2017 by StrangeSox

[StrangeSox]

 

Josh Dawsey‏Verified account

@jdawsey1

Great NYT story but the last four graphs explain a lot:

https://twitter.com/jdawsey1/status/845249736475074561

[RockRaines]

I mean, let's be honest, ACA's final form came out last minute and after lots of back room crap too. In that sense it's no different, methodologically.

Well at least that's what they complained about.

[StrangeSox]

Seems like it's dead

 

RSC Chair unsure they have the votes

https://twitter.com/jackiefell/status/845287348690653184

 

Freedom Caucus says they're still a "no"

https://twitter.com/jackiefell/status/845287348690653184

 

They also lost the chairman of the Appropriations Committee

https://twitter.com/mikedebonis/status/845288021314453504

 

 

[NorthSideSox72]

ACA came out after about a year's worth of debate, and all of the major features in the bill had been in place for awhile. The backroom deal that conservatives love to cite, the "Cornhusker Kickback," didn't actually make it into the final bill. There were a bunch of procedural hurdles it jumped through in order to bypass the filibuster in the Senate, but the framework for the bill had been pretty well settled for a while prior to the House and Senate votes. A long and boring history of the ACA passage can be found here.

This bill is not like that. They were making major, fundamental changes multiple times yesterday, possibly more today, and they're going to try to rush it through the House without even having a CBO score and after about a week's worth of debate.

 

There's a lot of unsightly sausage-making even in routine legislation, but the AHCA is something unique. Republicans are on a deadline because their window to pass this under reconciliation closes in mid-April, and they really want/need the AHCA spending and tax cuts in place to serve as a baseline for the further deep tax cuts they want to enact when they move to tax reform. If they can't clear this hurdle, it puts the other major items on their legislative agenda at risk.

If you want to criticize the last minute crap in this bill, you need to acknowledge the overall fact that Congress had just hours to see a 1200 page bill and then vote on it. It was a s***show. Yes that's commonplace, but you can't say one was OK and not the other.

 

You CAN say that the GOP has done poorly here, which is obvious. But they are in fact doing many of the same things wrong the Dems did, keeping most of the chambers out of the discussion until a last minute bill was plopped in front of them.

 

[Dick Allen]

If you want to criticize the last minute crap in this bill, you need to acknowledge the overall fact that Congress had just hours to see a 1200 page bill and then vote on it. It was a s***show. Yes that's commonplace, but you can't say one was OK and not the other.

 

You CAN say that the GOP has done poorly here, which is obvious. But they are in fact doing many of the same things wrong the Dems did, keeping most of the chambers out of the discussion until a last minute bill was plopped in front of them.

 

 

Considering how long they have been talking about repealing this and replacing this, their plan was as bad as could be. Sort of makes you wonder about their competence.

 

Trump promised repeal and replace with something cheaper, with better care, and covered everyone. Where is it?

 

 

And saying Obamacare did the same thing so we shouldn't complain that they are trying to ram this through without the proper study, why is that a legitimate excuse? If Obama was so bad, why is it OK when the Republicans do what appears to be the same thing, it's OK because Obama did it? Wasn't that the wrong thing? Maybe Obama wasn't the evil, America hater they claimed.

Edited March 24, 2017 by Dick Allen

[NorthSideSox72]

Considering how long they have been talking about repealing this and replacing this, their plan was as bad as could be. Sort of makes you wonder about their competence.

 

Trump promised repeal and replace with something cheaper, with better care, and covered everyone. Where is it?

 

 

And saying Obamacare did the same thing so we shouldn't complain that they are trying to ram this through without the proper study, why is that a legitimate excuse? If Obama was so bad, why is it OK when the Republicans do what appears to be the same thing, it's OK because Obama did it? Wasn't that the wrong thing? Maybe Obama wasn't the evil, America hater they claimed.

You have my post backwards. This new plan IS a disaster (regardless of how we got to this point), clearly. What I am saying is that people complaining about the last minute nature of the bill, but who were fine when the Dems did it, need to look in the mirror. That's all.

 

Obamacare is flawed. But TrumpCare is an abject disaster. Just to make sure you understand where I stand here.

 

I think it's important to focus ire on the actual bad, but also be less defensive of previous own-goals.

 

[StrangeSox]

The list of "no" votes appears to be growing as the White House insists that Ryan brings the bill to a floor for a vote either way.

[Soxbadger]

You have my post backwards. This new plan IS a disaster (regardless of how we got to this point), clearly. What I am saying is that people complaining about the last minute nature of the bill, but who were fine when the Dems did it, need to look in the mirror. That's all.

 

Obamacare is flawed. But TrumpCare is an abject disaster. Just to make sure you understand where I stand here.

 

I think it's important to focus ire on the actual bad, but also be less defensive of previous own-goals.

 

Interesting to see what happens if they dont have the votes.

[StrangeSox]

I'm loving the guy who's using all of his time in small chunks in order to remind every Republican who's speaking in favor of Trumpcare exactly how many thousands/tens of thousands of their constituents will lose health care coverage.

[illinilaw08]

You have my post backwards. This new plan IS a disaster (regardless of how we got to this point), clearly. What I am saying is that people complaining about the last minute nature of the bill, but who were fine when the Dems did it, need to look in the mirror. That's all.

 

Obamacare is flawed. But TrumpCare is an abject disaster. Just to make sure you understand where I stand here.

 

I think it's important to focus ire on the actual bad, but also be less defensive of previous own-goals.

 

Yeah, this process reiterates the Trump administrations desire for "results" they can parade around over good policy. There are Conservative health care ideas that I may disagree with in philosophy, but I can understand the thought process that gets someone there. That's not the plan that has been proposed.

 

And I think that's the (admittedly semantics) difference between the way these bills came to be. The ACA started with policy goals in mind, and last minute additions were made (after 5 months or so of public debate and discussion) to get the bill passed. The AHCA started with the goal of repealing the ACA, period with no clear policy idea behind what the bill was trying to accomplish.

[caulfield12]

The laughable thing is the AHCA would have multiple millions more without insurance than if the ACA never even existed at all and system "as is" continued in 2010...and yet the cost savings are less than $200 billion even with 24 million theoretically losing coverage. Or the fact that premiums will actually rise the next 2-3 years despite missing essential services in "bare bones" packages.

[Dick Allen]

Interesting to see what happens if they dont have the votes.

Trump will blame Ryan. He'll say he had a terrific health plan for everyone but Ryan's incompetence screwed it all up.

[StrangeSox]

"A president with 37% approval is forcing a vote on a bill that has 17% approval."