OBAMA/TRUMPCARE MEGATHREAD

[StrangeSox]

The ACA is just toast. We elected a complete maniac who's sole purpose is to destroy Obama's legacy. Now, when the Senate deal falls, he's simply going to repeal the ACA.

 

I give up. The American people don't matter at all.

 

By the way, even us lucky souls on cushy corporate healthcare will be f***ed in repeal.

 

They need 60 votes to repeal the ACA. Because it reduces the deficit, they can't use reconciliation.

 

They're absolutely going to keep sabotaging it as much as possible, though. I don't know how well that's going to work as a political strategy because they've been explicit about doing that.

 

If AHCA doesn't pass and he just repeals Obamacare, what is the healthcare system we'll have? Anarchy?

 

The rules would go back to what they were in 2009, which are actually really, really terrible in retrospect. But the bigger impact would be the absolute chaos and market collapse it'd cause across the country.

Edited June 30, 2017 by StrangeSox

[StrangeSox]

This was from one of Corey Gardner's offices in Colorado. Disabled citizens staged a sit-in to demand a meeting with their government representative. The sit-in lasted 58 hours before they were thrown out of the office by the police on orders of Gardner. No meeting has been granted. Several of these people have been charged with crimes, including interfering with a police officer for refusing to show how their wheelchair works.

 

 

More and more Republicans are refusing to hold town halls, refusing to speak to their constituents, even turning off their phone systems or letting the voicemails fill up until they're full. They're refusing to be held accountable by the people they claim to represent. They're refusing to even talk to them, to hear their concerns. Instead they're having them arrested for daring to demand that their voices be heard.

Edited June 30, 2017 by StrangeSox

[bmags]

If AHCA doesn't pass and he just repeals Obamacare, what is the healthcare system we'll have? Anarchy?

 

Hmm. For 60%, probably unchanged. For 15%, crippling. For those with pre-existing conditions who lose insurance, they'd face sure bankruptcy in new system.

 

For other 15%, unknown. The fact that we are near full employment means a lot of the adverse affects of removed regulations may be delayed. Could be hard to cut down on some of things like lifetime caps without losing labor that could be costlier to replace.

 

Hard to remember now but the employer provided healthcare was starting to rip apart at the seams in 2000s due to costs that were getting out of control. The costs plateau'd in 2010s for reasons possibly due to ACA or something else. If they stay more constant, maybe employer provided does a better job of coverage.

 

But, equally likely, the growing cost of labor is starting to cut into profit margins, and they save by cutting back on healthcare.

 

If youa re in a city, it wouldn't be that much chaos. But rural areas will see a lot of sudden closures and go back to days of 5000 people going to a free clinic in oklahoma for care.

[StrangeSox]

Maybe not that much chaos, but employer-covered plans would undoubtedly get worse as well. Annual and lifetime caps would come back, claims denials would go up, who knows what services would or wouldn't be covered.

 

Fun fact I learned yesterday: prior to the ACA, 88% of plans on the individual market didn't even cover maternity care.

[Leonard Zelig]

If AHCA doesn't pass and he just repeals Obamacare, what is the healthcare system we'll have? Anarchy?

 

[StrangeSox]

 

 

[bmags]

Maybe not that much chaos, but employer-covered plans would undoubtedly get worse as well. Annual and lifetime caps would come back, claims denials would go up, who knows what services would or wouldn't be covered.

 

Fun fact I learned yesterday: prior to the ACA, 88% of plans on the individual market didn't even cover maternity care.

 

We have no idea what large scale firms like walmart etc would do with restrictions taken off. Again, it's damn near full employment. That could smooth the issues for 2-3 years.

[StrangeSox]

We have no idea what large scale firms like walmart etc would do with restrictions taken off. Again, it's damn near full employment. That could smooth the issues for 2-3 years.

 

Possibly, but I remember my dad's plan at a major multinational corp during the tech boom of the late 90's still having lifetime caps. Don't know why that one aspect of some insurance document laying on the counter sticks in my mind from when I was 14 or whatever, but it does.

 

And as you said, employers are always looking to cut costs so we get increasing contributions from employees for their insurance or, if the ACA protections were removed, offering worse plans could be an option. Full employment does create some pressure there, but it's not total and we still had those sorts of plans in previous full employment scenarios.

 

Let's just hope that this total trainwreck of an idea never comes to fruition.

[Jake]

The individual market was so rotten pre-ACA that if they repealed ACA now, it would be such a killer for the economy. Only a crazy person would walk away from employer insurance to do something like start a business or take work as an independent contractor if they felt they had any potential need for health insurance.

[caulfield12]

There's a simple solution that saves money and covers everyone...from CA study

 

https://www.yahoo.com/news/economist-does-m...-160945608.html

 

Pollin: What I discovered in my research with my coauthors is that California is paying about $370 billion now in health care and that's with about 8 percent of the population still being uninsured and then about another 33 percent of the population being under-insured. Meaning they have insurance but their deductibles and copays are very prohibitively high and they're not getting the care they need…

 

We find, working from the existing research literature, we think conservatively you can get about 18 percent savings out of the system.

 

With 18 percent savings through four basic components: lower administrative costs; lower pharmaceutical prices; lower fees for providers, doctors, and hospitals; and somewhat greater efficiency in delivery of care. Add those four things up you get about 18 percent savings, which means that the total system is now going to cost $330 billion… and that everybody gets decent care.

 

...

 

 

Pollin: If we say that the whole system for 2017, the whole system would cost $330 billion to cover everybody decently, we have to get that money. Right now 70 percent of the health care system in California is covered by public funds already. That 70 percent is going to stay in place. That's going to remain intact. That's $225 billion out of what we need $330 billion. That means we need to raise roughly another $105 billion total.

 

What I proposed in the study was two simple mechanisms. One was a gross receipts tax, a tax on all receipts from all businesses at 2.3 percent. Then I built in an exemption for the first $2 million of gross receipts for all businesses. With that exemption, essentially 80 percent of the smaller businesses in the state are completely exempt from having to pay the tax. Another 10 percent are only paying at a rate of about 0.8 percent. That only leaves about 10 percent of the larger businesses in the state paying the 2.3 percent gross receipts tax.

 

That's going to raise the bulk of the money. Out of the $105 billion that we need, that raises about $92 billion. The rest is covered through an expansion of the existing sales tax in the state. Adding 2.3 percent sales tax but again I'm exempting necessities. I'm exempting food, housing, and utilities. When we do that it's a very progressive tax and we raise the rest of the money. That's how we get to $105 billion.

[StrangeSox]

Republicans are considering bypassing a cbo score altogether for parts of their bill and just having HHS "score" it.

 

https://twitter.com/byrdinator/status/88551...src=twsrc%5Etfw

 

[StrangeSox]

They're short of fifty votes in the motion to proceed at this point

[maxjusttyped]

GOP are forced to postpone vote to take away health care from 22 million people so John McCain can recover from major surgery.

 

http://www.nbcnews.com/politics/congress/s...ove-eye-n783396

[StrangeSox]

Insurers have come out in a joint statement and called the Cruz Amendment "unworkable in any form"

[Kyyle23]

Apparently a closed door meeting with State governors and Tom Price and Mike Pence to sway them on Trumpcare was atrocious.

[Steve9347]

This whole thing is just f***ed.

[Balta1701]

This whole thing is just f***ed.

I still believe they will get it done.

[maxjusttyped]

I still believe they will get it done.

It's either going to pass by 1 vote or fail by ~10. I think the former is significantly more likely, however.

 

 

https://twitter.com/urbaninstitute/status/885988480240766981

[caulfield12]

No similar bill has ever passed in a similar situation where the previous legislation has/had 50% (thereabouts) support and the replacement/alternative is hovering between 15-25% depending on which polling you look at. It's unprecedented. Tax reform would have been easier.

 

There's just no way it passes. Political suicide....for the governors as well. They'll get hammered too, guilt by association when their state Medicaid markets and individual markets begin to fail.

[Chisoxfn]

Commuting 20-30 minutes out of DC to a more affordable area isnt too much to ask. You can EASILY live comfortably on that salary just out of the immediate DC area.

You also have your primary residence in your main district. DC is absurdly expensive. Maybe I'm tone deaf, but I can appreciate the concept.

[Chisoxfn]

Just like the olden days...

 

The rest of working america is ok with commuting, some even flying every monday and then home every thursday. Why cant they? The public transportation system is pretty great in DC as well.

If you are flying in, you are getting paid. Are they not getting paid for their travel? Or are they getting paid and instead he wants a housing stipend (vs. staying in hotels)? If they aren't getting paid and travel is part of the gig, you should be compensated, imo.

[bmags]

You also have your primary residence in your main district. DC is absurdly expensive. Maybe I'm tone deaf, but I can appreciate the concept.

 

I agree but maybe they could also use this opportunity to relax the height standards in DC that cause housing shortages?

[bmags]

I still believe they will get it done.

 

I did and still do, but Moran and Lee just came out against it. I think they can be won back since they did not list demands, but I don't know. It was a pretty hefty statement.

[maxjusttyped]

I did and still do, but Moran and Lee just came out against it. I think they can be won back since they did not list demands, but I don't know. It was a pretty hefty statement.

It seems noteworthy to me the driving force behind killing this version of the bill was far right conservatives rather than "moderates" from medicaid expansion states. Other than Collins, every senator opposing right now appears very getable to me.

[Heads22]

And Moran and Lee oppose to motion to proceed.