OBAMA/TRUMPCARE MEGATHREAD

[Y2HH]

You'd probably have me moving on to complaining about the failure of the 401k as a retirement plan, if that counts.

 

How are 401k's a failure?

 

Mine has been massively successful.

[Balta1701]

The median age being 29--is that including management or just entry-level positions?

That study defines them as "core front-line workers in the fast-food industry". I think they're endeavouring to exclude upper management in there but can't tell if that would include a store manager or not.

 

Only 18% of the employees they found were under age 19 and living with parents.

[Reddy]

Guys please, do yourselves a favor and watch this 6 minute video. It is NON-PARTISAN, and it talks about a distribution of wealth that 92% of Americans agreed upon when polled (sample size 3000 people)

Edited November 21, 2013 by Reddy

[Balta1701]

That study defines them as "core front-line workers in the fast-food industry". I think they're endeavouring to exclude upper management in there but can't tell if that would include a store manager or not.

 

Only 18% of the employees they found were under age 19 and living with parents.

Ok, got the extra detail. That number is specifically counted by the BLS and had to go to their page for the definition (thank god the shutdown is over). It included: "the people who take orders or cook food) workers, including those at fast-food restaurants and excluding managers".

 

The median age of that group is 29.2. Only 18% of them are age 19 and under and living at home.

 

About 1/2 of the front line, fast food cooks and order-takers in this country are in their 30's or older.

[Iwritecode]

Adjusting for inflation the minimum wage would be like 10 bucks. It's not a huge leap.

 

Raising minimum wage is a good idea in theory but there may be some unintended consequences.

 

If it goes up to 10 or 12/hour, what do we do about all the people with quite a few years of experience who are making less than that? Is it fair that they make the same amount as someone with no experience?

 

How many small businesses would be forced to close or lay off employees because they couldn't afford that much of an increase?

 

[Y2HH]

Raising minimum wage is a good idea in theory but there may be some unintended consequences.

 

If it goes up to 10 or 12/hour, what do we do about all the people with quite a few years of experience who are making less than that? Is it fair that they make the same amount as someone with no experience?

 

How many small businesses would be forced to close or lay off employees because they couldn't afford that much of an increase?

 

While antiquated, I still believe Friedman was correct in what the actual effect of a minimum wage actually is:

 

[Balta1701]

Raising minimum wage is a good idea in theory but there may be some unintended consequences.

 

If it goes up to 10 or 12/hour, what do we do about all the people with quite a few years of experience who are making less than that? Is it fair that they make the same amount as someone with no experience?

 

How many small businesses would be forced to close or lay off employees because they couldn't afford that much of an increase?

1. Generally, I believe a person with significant experience making $9 an hour would probably be happy with the raise.

 

2. We haven't tried spiking the minimum wage up to $15 or anything like that, but there is a lot of economic research on the subject and it basically finds that there's very little impact on the job market from the minimum wage hikes we've done. There are probably a few jobs lost yes, but at the same time people on minimum wage are able to purchase more goods and services, leading to creation of jobs as well.

 

If you're going to push the minimum wage too far, like $20 an hour or something like that you're correct and you might well reach a point where you're overwhelming that effect and just making it impossible to hire people, but the change in employment associated with minimum wage hikes winds up being within the noise by almost every credible study.

 

Worth adding...we actually have a very low minimum wage compared to comparable countries in the developed world and we also have a very low rate of formation of new small businesses. Having a low minimum wage does not currently get us more small businesses than the UK, France or Germany, we get fewer. I contend that a much larger cause of that issue is health care costs - people who might start small business don't do so because they'd have to give up their health insurance to do so, leaving them "job locked".

[Reddy]

1. Generally, I believe a person with significant experience making $9 an hour would probably be happy with the raise.

 

2. We haven't tried spiking the minimum wage up to $15 or anything like that, but there is a lot of economic research on the subject and it basically finds that there's very little impact on the job market from the minimum wage hikes we've done. There are probably a few jobs lost yes, but at the same time people on minimum wage are able to purchase more goods and services, leading to creation of jobs as well.

 

If you're going to push the minimum wage too far, like $20 an hour or something like that you're correct and you might well reach a point where you're overwhelming that effect and just making it impossible to hire people, but the change in employment associated with minimum wage hikes winds up being within the noise by almost every credible study.

 

Worth adding...we actually have a very low minimum wage compared to comparable countries in the developed world and we also have a very low rate of formation of new small businesses. Having a low minimum wage does not currently get us more small businesses than the UK, France or Germany, we get fewer. I contend that a much larger cause of that issue is health care costs - people who might start small business don't do so because they'd have to give up their health insurance to do so, leaving them "job locked".

 

 

It's all connected. you fix healthcare, you take a huge chunk out of the problems of our economy and economic inequality. I don't know why people don't see this.

 

Is ACA that fix? Nope. But it's definitely a step in the right direction.

[Y2HH]

It's all connected. you fix healthcare, you take a huge chunk out of the problems of our economy and economic inequality. I don't know why people don't see this.

 

Is ACA that fix? Nope. But it's definitely a step in the right direction.

 

I think drastically increasing the minimum wage would simply assure that companies hire more white people and less minorities in which the law is intended to benefit most, which is Friedmans point. They will simply attempt to hire higher skilled workers that the new wage justifies. College kids would be more likely to take these jobs they'd otherwise pass on if the minimum wage was jacked to 15-20$.

 

And the people it was actually intended to help, it would harm further.

[StrangeSox]

We already have dramatically high education spending.

 

Higher than anyone in the world.

 

A lot of good it's doing.

 

...and what the hell is the "cost of living", anyway?

That spending isn't equalized, though.

[StrangeSox]

We're throwing money into the wrong things at schools. Money needs to be spent on (1) making sure the kids get to school (2) making sure they have a safe environment in which to learn (3) having teachers they can connect with.

 

In the worst of the bad neighborhoods, you need one person for every 50 students whose full time job is to follow up on kids who are absent from school and keep in touch with their parents. I'm not aware of any schools that have this to that extent. When I taught, we had one such person for the entire school of 600 kids.

 

Most of the problems with education are really problems with poverty in the first place.

[Reddy]

Most of the problems with education are really problems with poverty in the first place.

^

[StrangeSox]

It would make wages 1000 times more complicated than they are now. What if you are working while still living at home with your parents and you move out on your own and get married Do you get a raise? What if you have a set of twins. Do you get another raise?

 

The circumstances that define the monentary amount a person "needs" to live vary too drastically to try to nail it down to a single number.

 

A universal basic income would simplify it greatly, and it would be a check from the government, not wage restrictions on an employer. Every single person would be entitled to $X, and that could vary based on location.

 

We sort of do that with the Earned Income Tax Credit already.

[Balta1701]

I think drastically increasing the minimum wage would simply assure that companies hire more white people and less minorities in which the law is intended to benefit most, which is Friedmans point. They will simply attempt to hire higher skilled workers that the new wage justifies. College kids would be more likely to take these jobs they'd otherwise pass on if the minimum wage was jacked to 15-20$.

 

And the people it was actually intended to help, it would harm further.

There's another way to look at that though...if college students are able to make better wages in part-time positions, they are out of debt sooner, they're better able to afford to start households, they're able to start businesses or find long-term jobs of their own, which in turn creates more of those positions.

 

I get what MF is saying there and as I said if you pushed to $15 maybe he starts becoming right, but in the current situation that's just not going to happen. You're not going to push a substantial number of people out of the work force with a $10 minimum wage because the positions that pay those rock-bottom wages right now don't take extreme skill levels anyway - if they did they'd have to offer higher wages. The only things that could change that relationship would be if you pushed the wage so high that additional automation became more cost-effective.

[StrangeSox]

Don't buy any luxury items that Americans think are rights and it's pretty easy. We're talking about a living wage - what you need to provide you with life essentials. 15k is MORE than enough.

 

Please provide an actual budget instead of just assertions about what you think people spend their money on.

[StrangeSox]

Depends on where in America. I could do it here pretty easily.

 

Rent+utilities for a modest 1BR apartment is about $7000 per year. If you're willing to have a roommate and/or live in a more questionable area, you can do it for $4000/year.

 

Groceries are about $1600 per year.

 

Car payments for a reliable used car are about $1800 per year.

 

Gas for a commute of about 20 miles each way is about $2000 per year.

 

Clothes are about $600 per year.

 

Doesn't leave a lot left over for entertainment, but it's still doable.

 

That's not to say that the minimum wage shouldn't be higher, but it's not at all impossible to live in $15-17K in a lot of areas.

 

Where are you getting rent + utilities for $583/month for a 1BR?

[Y2HH]

There's another way to look at that though...if college students are able to make better wages in part-time positions, they are out of debt sooner, they're better able to afford to start households, they're able to start businesses or find long-term jobs of their own, which in turn creates more of those positions.

 

I get what MF is saying there and as I said if you pushed to $15 maybe he starts becoming right, but in the current situation that's just not going to happen. You're not going to push a substantial number of people out of the work force with a $10 minimum wage because the positions that pay those rock-bottom wages right now don't take extreme skill levels anyway - if they did they'd have to offer higher wages. The only things that could change that relationship would be if you pushed the wage so high that additional automation became more cost-effective.

 

Yes, but in the meantime you just forced many more poor people, especially minorities into unemployment, because the jobs they'd otherwise get are now being taken by higher skilled, more intelligent college kids.

 

That doesn't solve the problem you were attempting to solve.

[Balta1701]

Yes, but in the meantime you just forced many more poor people, especially minorities into unemployment, because the jobs they'd otherwise get are now being taken by higher skilled, more intelligent college kids.

 

That doesn't solve the problem you were attempting to solve.

That assumes though that there's a large number of college kids who aren't taking jobs because they don't pay quite enough. I don't imagine that number is significant compared with, for example, the number of people who work minimum wage jobs.

[StrangeSox]

Right, which is why it makes no sense. How can we be spending so much on education in this country if one of the most important factors in educating people (teachers) are being paid LESS than the OECD average? That money is going somewhere, and I'm betting if you followed the trail, it'd lead to a bunch of politicians bank accounts, or the bank accounts of their friends.

 

One place it isn't going, for sure, is to teachers or modernizing a lot of these classrooms, who STILL have limited or no access to modern computers or the Internet.

 

It's ridiculous.

 

This depends greatly on what school district you're talking about. New Trier and Nequa Valley spend assloads of money and have all sorts of resources. They pay their teachers well. They can do this because our schools are funded at the local level in large part, and these wealthy areas have the tax base.

 

We spend a lot, but we don't spend it equally. All of the "broken" parts of our education system aren't really the ones with high funding levels.

[StrangeSox]

Australia's minimum wage is somewhere around $15 or $16. I wonder if they've seen that effect.

[cabiness42]

Where are you getting rent + utilities for $583/month for a 1BR?

 

Most places in Indiana.

[StrangeSox]

Most places in Indiana.

Ah, right, silly of me to neglect rural poverty, I was only thinking of urban/suburban poverty.

[Iwritecode]

1. Generally, I believe a person with significant experience making $9 an hour would probably be happy with the raise.

 

I still wouldn't be happy if suddenly I was making the same amount as the person that's been there 6 months when I'd been there for 6 years. It would make experience/seniority irrelevant.

Edited November 21, 2013 by Iwritecode

[Iwritecode]

Where are you getting rent + utilities for $583/month for a 1BR?

 

I bet you could buy a house for less than that in Rockford.

[cabiness42]

Ah, right, silly of me to neglect rural poverty, I was only thinking of urban/suburban poverty.

 

Which is exactly why urban areas are free to set minimum wages that are higher than the national minimum wage.