Konerko thread

[balfanman]

Here's my question in reply...how are you defining "a little risky"?

 

Are you defining it in the sense that they're all a little risky to put up an ERA around 6 and only give the team 20 starts next year?

 

Or are you defining it as "well, they might only put up ERA's in the low-mid 4's and be say, an average 2nd starter"?

 

If you're going to tell me that they're a little risky in the sense that they might completely collapse...well you're right, but there's not a single pitcher in baseball you couldn't say the same thing about. You could spend $175 million on Cliff Lee and still think "well, he could get hurt and revert to his nearly non-tendered form". But that's a gamble I'd take.

 

There's probably a reasonable chance that all 3 of them somewhat struggle, put up ERA's somewhere between 3.50 and 4.25, and give you 175-200 innings, maybe with a nagging injury or two that costs a few starts here or there. But that isn't bad! That's pretty darn good! And if any of them take a step up above that, then that's close to a dominant season.

 

I know this isn't specific, but all of the above. The starting staff next year could be lights out all season long, or in a worst case scenario, they all could be very inconsistant and maybe even one or two gone for the year with injuries. I don't pretent to know how they're going to perform but my guess is somewhere in the middle, hopefully a little closer to the "lights out" end of the range.

 

My point is not to discuss how they are going to perform, because no one knows. My point is that someone stated that we could just trade Edwin Jackson because "we don't need him". I guess there is a slight possibility of that being true, but I would think that it's much more likely that we will need all of the quality starting pitching that we can get.

[Disco72]

Why would it be very bad? There's no reason to believe he's suddenly going to suck and hit like Pena who many seem to love so much?

The guy is a professional hitter who is actually improving his approach.

We can afford him if we dump Edwin Jackson on somebody. Just do that, White Sox. Don't need Edwin. And Paulie is VERY VERY POPULAR with our fanbase. Not good business to let paulie walk; just isn't good business.

 

Its not a matter of "can we afford him?" It's a matter of how much will he cost relative to his production. In this last five years his OPS has been .932 (2006), .841, .783, .842, and .977 (2010). You don't need complex math to see that his likely production is about an .840 OPS. I love Paul Konerko and would love to see him on the Sox next year. I assume some team is going to wildly overpay him based on his 2010 production while the Sox are going to offer a deal based on him producing at a roughly .840 OPS pace. I really hope the Sox can resign him, but if he gets a huge deal from someone, then good for him. I honestly don't think fans will stop buying tickets because PK isn't on the team, especially if the team is winning.

 

And the Sox are going to find someone who no one else wants to pay BIG BUCKS to. Hmm, what does that tell us?

 

I don't think the Sox are going to pay BIG BUCKS to any player this offseason. However, let's say the Sox do sign Adam Dunn, his worst OPS the last five years was .889. If he makes what PK made in 2010, that's a reasonable bet that Dunn will produce offensively at a higher level than PK.

 

If Paul Konerko signs for 2/$25 and puts up an .850 OPS, and Derrek Lee is signed for 1/$7 and puts up an .800 OPS, I would say that the Lee commitment was a better commitment.

 

You can only show loyalty to a certain extent. Williams and company may believe that spreading out $12 million over 2-3 positions, or by allocating it into 1 different player entirely is a better way to spend money than by spending it on Konerko.

 

Exactly!

[southsider2k5]

SI_JonHeyman

 

konerko has drawn significant interest from the #orioles. but an acquaintance opined: "he's not going to go to baltimore.''

[southsider2k5]

http://dempseysarmy.blogspot.com/2010/12/w...better-off.html

 

Why Baltimore Would Be Better Off Without Paul Konerko

 

From Dan Connolly's post in the Baltimore Sun's Oriole Insider blog, regarding Paul Konerko and the aggressive offer the Baltimore Orioles are reported to have made:

 

That said, the Orioles really could use Konerko. He fills several needs: a legitimate power hitter who plays first base, bats right-handed and brings winning experience and a veteran presence. He is one of the more well-respected professionals in the game.

 

 

Yes, he’ll be 35 and people have been waiting for his body to break down or his skills to erode for a few years now. And there’s a concern that his huge 2010 – which included 39 homers, 111 RBIs, a .312 batting average and career highs in on-base percentage (.394) and slugging percentage (.584) – was the product of a walk year and that he’s setting up his next team for an expensive fall.

 

 

But the Orioles have little choice. Their perfect free agent first baseman – Victor Martinez – is off the board and the other candidates are left-handed hitters, flawed or both.

 

 

That first paragraph, I have no issue with. Konerko would be an excellent addition to the Oriole lineup...if this were fantasy baseball. But this is real baseball and you have to account for the contract it will take to get Konerko to Baltimore.

 

There have been no details about the offer the Orioles made but I think we can make a few assumptions. Konerko just came off a contract where he was making $12 million per season. Anyone think he will leave the White Sox for a pay cut? Doubtful. Does anyone think the Orioles can lure him to Baltimore on a 2-year deal? A 3-year deal? I think the club will have to offer him at least a 4-year deal. So the 4-year, $48 mil offer they made to Victor Martinez seems to be a good jumping off point for Konerko. If anyone thinks we can sign him for less, please let me know.

 

So, should the Orioles offer this kind of money to Paul Konerko? Well, Konerko is a 34-year old first baseman coming off his career year. Yes, the stats for 2010 were fantastic (a .977 OPS in addition to all the stats Connolly recounted) but those were the best numbers he has ever put up by a good margin. Who wants to wager that he will put up those numbers again during his age 35-38 seasons? Not I.

 

Much of Konerko's season was fueled by a career-high BABIP (one that is not supported by his Line Drive percentage) and I think it's safe to assume that the composite of the previous three seasons (2007-2009) are a better indicator of what he will look like going forward. Top performances in terms of OPS+ from 2007-2009 for 1B/DH types:

 

2007-2009 OPS+

1. Pujols 178

2. Fielder 151

3. Teixeira 147

4. Pena 145

5. Berkman 143

6. Gonzalez 142

.

.

.

16. Matsui 119

17. LaRoche 117

18. Butler 111

19. Konerko 111

20. Loney 110

 

 

 

There's Konerko, way down there with the 111 OPS+, under Adam LaRoche.

 

Guess who else isn't on this list (because he was a LF during much of this span)? Luke Scott who had a 114 OPS+.

 

So there's Adam LaRoche again, a player who could match Konerko's production over the next four years but would be available for less years and less money. Anybody think the Orioles need to give him $48 mil? How about extending Scott with that deal? And wouldn't you have to think twice about giving that kind of cash to Carlos Pena as well?

 

Konerko's going to be 35. He's due for a big decline over the course of a 4-year deal. And his 31-33 seasons were no great shakes to begin with. He has just come off his best season by far.

 

In the immortal words of Admiral Ackbar, "It's a trap!"

 

Giving Konerko a contract as I described would be a disaster at worst and a huge overpay for a slightly above average player at best.

 

But Connolly (and a lot of fans) think it's a disaster the Orioles have no choice but to walk right into. Why? Why should the Orioles do something that will be to the ultimate detriment of the team. They don't have to do this. There are other options that are good bets to produce like Konerko but come at far less financial risk. LaRoche is one. Derrek Lee is another. Adam Dunn is still another, given the talent gap between the two. (Yes, Dunn is a better player than Konerko...)

 

This is not the Konerko of 2005. Not even the Konerko of 2000. This is a soon-to-be 35-year old first baseman coming of a season we will never reproduce and heading for an age induced decline. Don't believe the hype and hope we dodge another bullet.

Posted by Heath at 12:25 PM

Labels: Adam LaRoche, Baltimore Orioles, Paul Konerko

[Texsox]

How excited would Sox fans be to enter 2011 with Adam LaRoche as our new 1st baseman?

[Balta1701]

How excited would Sox fans be to enter 2011 with Adam LaRoche as our new 1st baseman?

I'd be content, or so.

[greg775]

It's not "letting Paulie walk" like so many others have said. The Sox simply have very little they can do to keep him because it wouldn't be the teams fault if he left.

It's not about money, it's proximity to his family. Konerko literally said that the Sox could offer the most money and it may not matter. I wish more fans would realize this...

 

I guess I'm not educated on this enough. What "family" does he want to be by so badly for six to seven months a year? Don't his wife and kids live in Chicago where he's lived a long time? Doesn't he have an offseason home somewhere else?

I think if the Sox offered the most money he'd stay.

If it's a family thing, more power to him I guess.

I still say this is a bad PR move. Buehrle and Paulie are White Sox. If he's bound and determined to go, there's nothing the Sox can do about it, but we sure haven't heard much in terms of them trying to keep him.

Edited December 2, 2010 by greg775

[Balta1701]

I guess I'm not educated on this enough. What "family" does he want to be by so badly for six to seven months a season? Don't his wife and kids live in Chicago where he's lived a long time? Doesn't he have an offseason home somewhere else?

His full-year home is Arizona.

[greg775]

Do the wife and kids stay in some condo in Chicago during the season?

 

[justBLAZE]

Source told me today that #Diamondbacks were in early stages of talks with Konerko. Could change if #WhiteSox sign Dunn. #MLB #Chicago - Jon Morosi

 

Read on Paulie, Dunn, Quentin and few others from Rosenthal.

[Steve9347]

SI_JonHeyman Jon Heyman

rumors swirling all over chicago #cubs are in on konerko. id be stunned if jerry reinsdorf's favorite player leaves him for cubs

 

[macsandz]

SI_JonHeyman Jon Heyman

rumors swirling all over chicago #cubs are in on konerko. id be stunned if jerry reinsdorf's favorite player leaves him for cubs

 

LOL. That's an absolute joke for a ton of reasons and not even worth reporting.

[fathom]

Please Paulie, don't go to the dark side. I'd rather you go anywhere but there.

[southsider2k5]

SI_JonHeyman Jon Heyman

rumors swirling all over chicago #cubs are in on konerko. id be stunned if jerry reinsdorf's favorite player leaves him for cubs

 

This seems like a situation where JR would call Konerko personally.

[SoxFan562004]

LOL. That's an absolute joke for a ton of reasons and not even worth reporting.

agreed, this team is trying to shed payroll or at worst keep it stable, how would they add PK at at least 12m a year? Their vet contracts are so bad it's not like they can move them to free up payroll.

[Texsox]

This seems like a situation where JR would call Konerko personally.

 

 

I believe you are correct, but what is he going to say? "We want you as our second or third option, and at a cheao price, but if it doesn't work out, don't go to the Cubs? Seems kind of crazy

[southsider2k5]

I believe you are correct, but what is he going to say? "We want you as our second or third option, and at a cheao price, but if it doesn't work out, don't go to the Cubs? Seems kind of crazy

 

More like, what does it take to get you back, today.

[macsandz]

More like, what does it take to get you back, today.

 

Dunn is what brings PK back.

[South Side Fireworks Man]

If Paulie isn't so sure he would sign with the Sox even if they offered him more money than another team, which is what he said, why would he consider playing for the Cubs, unless the Cubs absolutely blew every other offer out of the water with some ridiculous contract?

 

If Paulie winds up signing with the Cubs for anything close to what the DBacks, Angels, White Sox, Red Sox etc. would likely be willing to pay him, I'll lose all respect for the man.

Edited December 2, 2010 by South Side Fireworks Man

[SoxFan562004]

Heyman twittering that D'Backs are out of PK, so that's one team down.

[justBLAZE]

Cowley:

KW says they have room for both Dunn and Konerko, and that would be the ideal fit.

They will let PK go through the winter meetings process and then hope to know if it's going to happen.

 

 

Ball is in your court Paulie.

Edited December 2, 2010 by justBLAZE

[Steve9347]

KW says they have room for both Dunn and Konerko, and that would be the ideal fit. - Cowley

 

Ball is in your court Paulie.

Paulie already gave us the hometeam discount once, I fully expect him to go to the best situation + paycheck.

 

However, with Dunn in tow now, that might just be the White Sox.

[Balta1701]

Paulie already gave us the hometeam discount once, I fully expect him to go to the best situation + paycheck.

Really, I think we've been over this...no he didn't, if you take into account the CA, IL, and MD state tax rates. The 3 offers were pretty much identical.

[Texsox]

More like, what does it take to get you back, today.

 

But then we are back to the $X is too much. Unless you are saying that JR would allow the budget to be stretched to fit in PK, which could be a possibility.

[southsider2k5]

But then we are back to the $X is too much. Unless you are saying that JR would allow the budget to be stretched to fit in PK, which could be a possibility.

 

Exactly. It is the same thing that Frank did with Scottie, Michael, and Frank.