Troy Tulowitzki signs extension

[witesoxfan]

Of course it's being reported as a 10-year extension worth $157.75 mill to grab eyeballs, but it's really a 6 year extension worth $119 million. Gotta keep him healthy.

 

Both Long Beach State boys are signed for a long time. Maybe the Rays can work out ANOTHER extension for Longoria!

[Jordan4life_2007]

Sounds about right to me. Other than an injury-plagued 2008, Tulo has proven himself to be one of the 10 best (maybe top 5) players in baseball. And he just turned 26 a month ago. More and more teams aren't messing around when it comes to locking up their young stars.

[LittleHurt05]

Jeff Passan thinks its a bad deal for both sides.

 

Interesting read. I agree that it might be a bad move for the Rockies. Paying one player $20 mil year when you don't have the highest payroll could lead to trouble in the future, especially when you will have to pay Ubaldo & CarGo. Their past big money deals worked out awful, and Tulo played in less than 125 games in 2 of his 1st 4 seasons so far.

 

I think he's way unfair on Tulo though. Yes, maybe in 4 years he could have signed a $200 million contract. But you never know whats gonna happen, he has a history of injuries, likes Colorado, and $119 million is a lot of money in its own right.

[Balta1701]

Jeff Passan thinks its a bad deal for both sides.

 

Interesting read. I agree that it might be a bad move for the Rockies. Paying one player $20 mil year when you don't have the highest payroll could lead to trouble in the future, especially when you will have to pay Ubaldo & CarGo. Their past big money deals worked out awful, and Tulo played in less than 125 games in 2 of his 1st 4 seasons so far.

 

I think he's way unfair on Tulo though. Yes, maybe in 4 years he could have signed a $200 million contract. But you never know whats gonna happen, he has a history of injuries, likes Colorado, and $119 million is a lot of money in its own right.

Neyer replies.

[LittleHurt05]

Neyer replies.

 

Well said. He did make some good points about their future payroll and probable inability to re-sign CarGo. That being said, it is weird that they signed him to this deal now, instead of waiting til 2011 or 2012, since they had him signed til 2014 as it was. It might be better to wait out the year or two, see if he can stay healthy again.

 

On a side note, it was cool to see a writer from one website constructively criticize another website's piece, actually quoting it as well. Nowadays, it seems as if you only get anonymous criticisms and name-calling instead of just an honest respectful opinion piece.

[elrockinMT]

Tulowitzki ain't no Alex Rodrigues, but then again Alex Rodrigues isn't either. Looking at $20M a year? That is outrageous

[Balta1701]

Tulowitzki ain't no Alex Rodrigues, but then again Alex Rodrigues isn't either. Looking at $20M a year? That is outrageous

Really though, it's $20 million a year starting what, 3-4 years from now? Read the Neyer link. With some assumption of continuing revenue/salary growth, that's probably the equivalent of a $15 million a year contract today, which is still high, but the player is performing.

[Balta1701]

I’m starting the $ per win at 4.5MM$ in 2011, and going up by 0.5MM$ each year. Is that a good estimate? Bad estimate? I don’t know. We’re all in the same boat here. His WAR in 2015 (age 31) would be 3.9. And then we drop it by 0.5 wins per year. I know that is a good estimate, because that’s the typical pattern that we’ve seen historically.

 

Anyway, all we have to do is multiply the second column by the third column, and add up the numbers. And what do we get?

 

$119MM$.

 

Seriously.

 

Listen, I know I got lucky here. I could have started the $ per win at 5.0. I could have instead increased the $ per win by 7% or something (that would have gotten me to 119.6MM$). Whatever, that’s not the main point.

 

The main point is that we have a framework to analyze the deal, and we can plug in reasonable numbers to see how we could get to 119MM$. And, we were able to do so with reasonable numbers.

Found this interesting.

[southsider2k5]

I am surprised the Rockies ponied up like that after the disaster that was the Todd Helton contract.

[bigruss]

I am surprised the Rockies ponied up like that after the disaster that was the Todd Helton contract.

And Hampton.

[southsider2k5]

And Hampton.

 

Eh, pitchers with long term contracts are a whole other level of stupid versus hitters.

[Dick Allen]

Really though, it's $20 million a year starting what, 3-4 years from now? Read the Neyer link. With some assumption of continuing revenue/salary growth, that's probably the equivalent of a $15 million a year contract today, which is still high, but the player is performing.

But wouldn't he most likely accept the same extension a year or 2 from now? What if he gets injured or has a big slip in production next season? His September was awesome, but he was injured and not worth $20 million a year prior to that. I think this is very risky for the Rockies and it really doesn't appear like they are getting much of a discount.

[Milkman delivers]

Tulowitzki ain't no Alex Rodrigues, but then again Alex Rodrigues isn't either. Looking at $20M a year? That is outrageous

 

Do you just live in the past constantly?

 

And I don't even know who this Alex Rodrigues is. There's a player for the Yankees named Alex Rodriguez, perhaps you meant him.