Paul Konerko Re-Signs with White Sox

[chw42]

Ozzie's lineup optimizer:

 

 

Lol, based on what he said...(Rios hitting 4th between Dunn and Konerko).

 

The lineup would average .05 runs less. That's an 8 run difference over the course of a season.

[sin city sox fan]

Jerry Reinsdorf is not a crazy rich old guy. He is very calculated in what he does. I think he is stretching things right now but he feels that the opportunity is their in this major market to make it work and turn in a profit. The business will probably take a loss, however, the Sox have continued to reinvest funds but at the same time have seen the franchise appreciate.

 

I think Jerry knows that in his old age he wants to win and I'm guessing the rest of the ownership group does as well. They won't get crazy but I think at this point in time they felt these players were worth going "all in" for.

 

What will happen with our bullpen, I don't know. But one thing about bullpens is they are much more of a crap shoot than offensive players. So with that said, I'm glad we invested our money in a guy that has been a relatively constent run producer throughout his career and I can hope that our young arms in the pen, along with Thornty, can pan out. If they don't, we can invest some money in the pen.

 

My bigger concern to be quite frank is Peavy since we don't have a 5th starter as of now, especially if we are going with Sale in our pen. Plus, a healthy Jake Peavy (major if) makes this team a lot better.

 

I think Jerry sees the Cubs struggling as well and wants to gain market share in a two team market. Sure there are many die hard Sox fans (like most everyone here) and there are many die hard Cubs fans. However, there are also many fans who jump on the bandwagon of whatever team might be winning. We saw that in 2005 and if we could win another World Series in the next couple of years (while the Cubs produce sub .500 teams), many of those non-diehard fans would be more supportive of the Sox than the Cubs. I think Jerry is the type of guy that would want to win no matter where he is...but he realizes it's even more important in a market with two teams and he wants to take this opportunity to gain market share.

[bigruss]

I don't think the rest of MLB agrees.

 

I just don't get how anyone can ASSUME that an aged player will bounce back after a dismal season. Based on what? A hunch? Because people have done it before? I just don't see how you can justify a DLee signing unless it's very cheap, and even then it's not a slam-dunk that it's better than signing the more proven guy.

Comparison of down years:

 

Dlee's 2010: .260/.347/.428/.774

Konerko's 2008: .240/.344/ .438/ .783

 

Konerko looked toast in 2008, and 2009 was an improvement but was only worth 1.8 wins. Lee was worth 1.5 wins in his "dismal" season. Thus, Lee's worst season was still basically the same as Konerko's "average" season.

[ScottyDo]

Comparison of down years:

 

Dlee's 2010: .260/.347/.428/.774

Konerko's 2008: .240/.344/ .438/ .783

 

Konerko looked toast in 2008, and 2009 was an improvement but was only worth 1.8 wins. Lee was worth 1.5 wins in his "dismal" season. Thus, Lee's worst season was still basically the same as Konerko's "average" season.

Right, and the important numbers there are 2010 and 2008. Since Konerko's down season, you have since been provided with overwhelming evidence that his career is not shot because of injury or diminished skills. What has Lee shown you since his down year?

[Balta1701]

Right, and the important numbers there are 2010 and 2008. Since Konerko's down season, you have since been provided with overwhelming evidence that his career is not shot because of injury or diminished skills. What has Lee shown you since his down year?

An .888 OPS in the 2nd half of that down year.

[bigruss]

An .888 OPS in the 2nd half of that down year.

Haha beat me to it.

[TomPickle]

Ozzie's real lineup optimizer.

 

[IamtheHBOMB]

Ran the lineup of

1. Pierre

2. Beckham

3. Rios

4. Dunn

5. Konerko

6. Quentin

7. Pierzynski

8. Ramirez

9. Morel

 

through a lineup optimizer with Bill James' optimistic forecasts (although these were released before they knew where Dunn would go).

 

Link

 

That lineup yields 5.15 runs per game. Over the course of a year, that's 835 runs, 80 or so more than last year. The best lineup (with Gordon leading off and Dunn hitting second) yields 5.23 runs per game.

 

That runs per game number only applies if the "optimal" lineup plays every game, right?

 

 

[chw42]

That runs per game number only applies if the "optimal" lineup plays every game, right?

 

Yeah, which is never going to happen. So you can take that estimate with an error of +- 15-20 runs.

[Steve9347]

Ozzie's real lineup optimizer.

 

[Balta1701]

Anyone else just get an official season and package ticket sale email from Whitesox.com?

[bigruss]

Anyone else just get an official season and package ticket sale email from Whitesox.com?

LOL, yea got one about 2 hrs after the Konerko official email.

[soxfan-kwman]

Don't stop now boys!!

Edited December 8, 2010 by soxfan-kwman

[SoxFan562004]

Lee had a torn thumb ligament and has a wonky back... I'm not saying PK is the model of health, but he bounced back last year and D-Lee still has to prove he can bounce back this year.

 

I know last year guarantees nothing in this contract, but it's how a free market works and PK came off a hot season... there was interest from the D'Backs with an initial offer of 3/30 and Rangers had discussed parameters with Baltimore lurking and it's not out of the realm of possibility that a team like Oakland who has had trouble giving money away this offseason could have gotten involved. I don't read this as a situation where the Sox were bidding against themselves. Lee and Pena have some serious question marks after last season, while I think they were legitimate options we have no idea how negotiations with every team go, it's completely unfair to look at how much a guy signs for with a particular team and assume that every team in the majors would get the exact same deal.

[bigruss]

Lee had a torn thumb ligament and has a wonky back... I'm not saying PK is the model of health, but he bounced back last year and D-Lee still has to prove he can bounce back this year.

 

I know last year guarantees nothing in this contract, but it's how a free market works and PK came off a hot season... there was interest from the D'Backs with an initial offer of 3/30 and Rangers had discussed parameters with Baltimore lurking and it's not out of the realm of possibility that a team like Oakland who has had trouble giving money away this offseason could have gotten involved. I don't read this as a situation where the Sox were bidding against themselves. Lee and Pena have some serious question marks after last season, while I think they were legitimate options we have no idea how negotiations with every team go, it's completely unfair to look at how much a guy signs for with a particular team and assume that every team in the majors would get the exact same deal.

Ahem, did you not see Balta's post? Lee put up a .888 OPS in the second half of last year. And ptatc has informed us that Konerko's injury will last his lifetime, while DLee's is a simple fix and will be ready to go very soon, well before the season starting.

[SoxFan562004]

Ahem, did you not see Balta's post? Lee put up a .888 OPS in the second half of last year. And ptatc has informed us that Konerko's injury will last his lifetime, while DLee's is a simple fix and will be ready to go very soon, well before the season starting.

I saw them, yes, it's still no guarantee he bounces back fully. Could he? Absolutely, but nobody has a clue on what type of $$ or years he's asking for and what if he wants to wait and PK was willing to get the deal done today, then the Sox could be looking for Mark Kotsay the sequel in January.

 

 

[kjshoe04]

As did I, chuckled when I saw the email.

[iamshack]

I saw them, yes, it's still no guarantee he bounces back fully. Could he? Absolutely, but nobody has a clue on what type of $$ or years he's asking for and what if he wants to wait and PK was willing to get the deal done today, then the Sox could be looking for Mark Kotsay the sequel in January.

So there is no guarantee about DLee, but there is about PK?

[SoxFan562004]

So there is no guarantee about DLee, but there is about PK?

no, I think if you read in my other posts I tagged it with the notion that there is no guarantee with PK either. Again, I would have been OK with Lee if PK went elsewhere, but at this point we have to see if he can bounce back for a full year and see what he is demanding and ends up signing for.

 

 

[Dick Allen]

An .888 OPS in the 2nd half of that down year.

If your basing a lot of things on the second half of a year, I'm surprised you don't want the Sox to rid themselves of Alex Rios, considering his good year in 2010 with a second half OPS of .686.

[Dick Allen]

So there is no guarantee about DLee, but there is about PK?

There's no guarantee about anyone, but you said you would sign Konerko for 2 years $20 million. This is an extra year, so worry about that 3 years from now, and I really doubt the extra $2.5 million they will be paying him more per year than what you previously said you would be comfortable with, is really going to cost them anything special. Actually, they are paying him $12 million the next 2 years and $6.5 million the 3rd year, with a $1million payment for 7 years after that. Considering .196 hitting strikeout machines with OPS less than .750 can get $10 million for 1 year, its a good deal.

Edited December 8, 2010 by Dick Allen

[Jordan4life_2007]

If your basing a lot of things on the second half of a year, I'm surprised you don't want the Sox to rid themselves of Alex Rios, considering his good year in 2010 with a second half OPS of .686.

 

Damn, that was a nice rebuttal. That's why I tend not to get too caught up in split stats. They're too easy to manipulate.

[bigruss]

If your basing a lot of things on the second half of a year, I'm surprised you don't want the Sox to rid themselves of Alex Rios, considering his good year in 2010 with a second half OPS of .686.

I'd be down with it, I think he's going to be very average this year, and we'd be paying him quite a bit for that. The problem is, I don't think any team would really give up to much value for him, and we don't have any replacements.

[iamshack]

There's no guarantee about anyone, but you said you would sign Konerko for 2 years $20 million. This is an extra year, so worry about that 3 years from now, and I really doubt the extra $2.5 million they will be paying him more per year than what you previously said you would be comfortable with, is really going to cost them anything special. Actually, they are paying him $12 million the next 2 years and $6.5 million the 3rd year, with a $1million payment for 7 years after that. Considering .196 hitting strikeout machines with OPS less than .750 can get $10 million for 1 year, its a good deal.

The extra $2.5 million this year probably just cost them JJ Putz.

 

And yes, I said 2/$20. That's $17.5 million less than what they paid him ultimately. They're paying him almost double what I said I would be comfortable with.

Edited December 8, 2010 by iamshack

[Dick Allen]

Whatever happened to Cowley's claim Konerko needed at least $15 million a year?