Boston DOES Acquire Gonzalez

[Balta1701]

The Padres started last season with a total payroll of $37.8 million. Here's the moves they've made this offseason:

The Padres already have lost right-hander Jon Garland, shortstop Miguel Tejada and catcher Yorvit Torrealba to free agency, and won't re-sign outfielders Scott Hairston and Tony Gwynn Jr. They also declined to pick up right-hander Chris Young's $8.5 million option.

[3E8]

People generally think about these deals as 'trading for a player'.

Gotta remember... you're not trading a player... you're trading a player's contract.

What the RedSox acquired is 1 year of AG's services at $5.5M + two draft picks if he left in free agency.

What they offered the Pads had to provide fair value for that, plus some premium to make their offer more attractive than other teams.

Even one year of Gonzalez at his '11 option salary is tremendously valuable. Looking at Fangraphs/B-R.com's WAR values for AG over the past two seasons, he's a 6+ win player. This translates to over $25M in value. Subtract his '11 salary, and the Red Sox are getting 20 million dollars in surplus value. The draft picks have some monetary value as well which is not insignificant. It strikes me as strange the Padres would to gamble somewhat on B prospects for the most valuable trade piece on the market.

[sircaffey]

Lots of people love Kelly and Rizzo. Kelly will make most top 50 lists. Rizzo will make some as well. Still not what I thought SD would get, but Kelly and Rizzo are certainly a couple of the best prospects in baseball.

[scenario]

Well, one thing you're missing is that the Red Sox have reportedly obtained a 72 hour window to negotiate an extension with Gonzalez or veto the trade, so you've got the calculation wrong.

 

Even if that was the calculation though, I think the feeling expressed so far is that 1 year of AG at that price plus the 2 picks should have brought back more than the Padres got. They should have gotten a serious MLB ready guy.

 

Yeah. The right to negotiate with him does come into play, but the point I'm trying to make here is that you give up alot less when you only get a guy cheap for one year.

 

Which is also one of the main reasons why potential deals LAST year for AG are different than would be on the table this year, etc... and are therefore hard to compare.

 

 

[chw42]

Bad deal for the Padres. Kelly's been very underwhelming in the minors so far.

[Balta1701]

Yeah. The right to negotiate with him does come into play, but the point I'm trying to make here is that you give up alot less when you only get a guy cheap for one year.

 

Which is also one of the main reasons why potential deals LAST year for AG are different than would be on the table this year, etc... and are therefore hard to compare.

OTOH...the Padres could actually be believed to be in a stronger position than they were last year...because they actually competed last year, and they've also moved Peavy's contract and cut back their other commitments around him. They could have just run with him this year and probably gotten this good of an offer at the AS break. Instead, they made the move now, which is confusing.

[sircaffey]

OTOH...the Padres could actually be believed to be in a stronger position than they were last year...because they actually competed last year, and they've also moved Peavy's contract and cut back their other commitments around him. They could have just run with him this year and probably gotten this good of an offer at the AS break. Instead, they made the move now, which is confusing.

Maybe. The Red Sox were going to make some kind of move at 1B or 3B this off season, meaning they would not likely want Adrian at the deadline. Plus you have Fielder to contend with at the deadline as well. Maybe some team would have made a similar move at the deadline, but not the Red Sox.

[ThunderBolt]

As KW once (kinda) said, "This puts the Red Sox in a better position to compete with us. " . IF we fill out our pen, i expect some epic playoff battles for the next couple of years.

Edited December 4, 2010 by Thunderbolt

[Wanne]

Early reports are Kelly, Rizzo, and Fuentes. Pretty underwhelming package.

 

That's VERY underwhelming. I'd be so jacked if I was a Pads fan...

[Quin]

Wow. Jed Hoyer giving Boston a discount much?

 

I gotta believe if we had wanted AGon, we could have matched that, even with our awful system.

[fathom]

Wow. Jed Hoyer giving Boston a discount much?

 

I gotta believe if we had wanted AGon, we could have matched that, even with our awful system.

 

With our terrible farm system? Not a prayer. We have no one that compares to Kelly or Rizzo.

[ScottyDo]

OTOH...the Padres could actually be believed to be in a stronger position than they were last year...because they actually competed last year, and they've also moved Peavy's contract and cut back their other commitments around him. They could have just run with him this year and probably gotten this good of an offer at the AS break. Instead, they made the move now, which is confusing.

Well, they didn't want to accidentally contend...duh! Success on the field is such terrible risk to take.

 

Sorry, I'll find a new track eventually. That whole concept just pisses me off, though.

[Balta1701]

Well, they didn't want to accidentally contend...duh! Success on the field is such terrible risk to take.

 

Sorry, I'll find a new track eventually. That whole concept just pisses me off, though.

Feel free to be pissed off at this. Padres fans should be.

[Quin]

With our terrible farm system? Not a prayer. We have no one that compares to Kelly or Rizzo.

 

Dayan compares better to Rizzo. Rizzo took more walks at AA at the same age, but Viciedo hit almost .20 points higher in his first season in American ball.

 

Kelly has potential, but he was nothing spectacular in AA. Sale beats Kelly easily in my opinion.

[Balta1701]

Sale beats Kelly easily in my opinion.

We can't trade Sale yet, and even in a few days when we can PTBNL him, we have that mess where he can't be moved out of our system until June but he's actually property of the Padres.

 

Hudson + Viciedo...if Hudson had had a similar August/September for us to what he had with AZ, might have actually been close.

[Quin]

We can't trade Sale yet, and even in a few days when we can PTBNL him, we have that mess where he can't be moved out of our system until June but he's actually property of the Padres.

 

Hudson + Viciedo...if Hudson had had a similar August/September for us to what he had with AZ, might have actually been close.

 

I'd have to think Hudson, Viciedo, and Flowers would have been a good deal compared to this, especially after Hudson took off in the NL West.

[Dick Allen]

We can't trade Sale yet, and even in a few days when we can PTBNL him, we have that mess where he can't be moved out of our system until June but he's actually property of the Padres.

 

Hudson + Viciedo...if Hudson had had a similar August/September for us to what he had with AZ, might have actually been close.

Not to mention the Sox most likely aren't in a position to pay Gonzalez $20 million + per year the next 6 years.

[sircaffey]

I'd have to think Hudson, Viciedo, and Flowers would have been a good deal compared to this, especially after Hudson took off in the NL West.

Viciedo is on a major league deal though. He makes millions currently and is arbitration eligible soon. Rizzo is team controlled for years. That's a big difference.

[Balta1701]

Not to mention the Sox most likely aren't in a position to pay Gonzalez $20 million + per year the next 6 years.

They're going to pay Dunn + Konerko more than that for the next 3 years. Gonzalez + Viciedo will cost less for the next 4 years, probably better offensive production, a lot better defense.

[Quin]

Viciedo is on a major league deal though. He makes millions currently and is arbitration eligible soon. Rizzo is team controlled for years. That's a big difference.

 

But Viciedo is also ready right now.

[Balta1701]

Viciedo is on a major league deal though. He makes millions currently and is arbitration eligible soon. Rizzo is team controlled for years. That's a big difference.

That's not how Viciedo's deal works. He's getting a couple million a year, but he still has the full set of pre-arb and arb-eligible years. Viciedo is under Sox control for 6 years.

[pktmotion]

I'd have to think Hudson, Viciedo, and Flowers would have been a good deal compared to this, especially after Hudson took off in the NL West.

 

Or Beckham could've easily trumped any trade proposal by BOS, even if they'd included Ellsbury or Bard. It seems to me that Gonz was always BOS bound. And it was just a matter of which prospects Hoyer liked best. Kind of a head scratching move on Hoyer's end to s*** where you eat.

[sircaffey]

That's not how Viciedo's deal works. He's getting a couple million a year, but he still has the full set of pre-arb and arb-eligible years. Viciedo is under Sox control for 6 years.

Yeah that's correct. I'm just mentioning how much more expensive Viciedo is going to be compared to Rizzo. Even in his 1st pre-arb season, Viciedo is required to make at least $2 million (that's if his team adheres to the 80% rule, it likely will be more than $2.5 mil). So basically, he's guaranteed at least 6 million in his first 3 MLB seasons (if he started in MLB in 2011). Rizzo will barely make more than $1 mil in his first 3 years. Admittedly, I could be misinterpreting arbitration rules when concerned with Major League deals given to prospects, but that's how I interpret it.

[Chisoxfn]

With our terrible farm system? Not a prayer. We have no one that compares to Kelly or Rizzo.

Sale > Kelly

 

I could even make a case that VIciedo has much better overall tools than Rizzo. This was not a good deal on paper as it stands right now for the Padres, imo. They got guys that will not be in the majors this year, two of which are incredibly raw and could very easily fail. Not sure who the 4th player is.

 

But the Sox could have put this type of package together, imo. It doesn't mean I would have done it though, since we have less depth and that type of trade would have seriously impacted our current club and long-term future and I'm glad with dunn.

[fathom]

Sale > Kelly

 

I could even make a case that VIciedo has much better overall tools than Rizzo. This was not a good deal on paper as it stands right now for the Padres, imo. They got guys that will not be in the majors this year, two of which are incredibly raw and could very easily fail. Not sure who the 4th player is.

 

But the Sox could have put this type of package together, imo. It doesn't mean I would have done it though, since we have less depth and that type of trade would have seriously impacted our current club and long-term future and I'm glad with dunn.

 

As you know, Sale couldn't even be traded for a long time. Also, Padres already passed on Sale once, so who knows if they even like him.