Boston DOES Acquire Gonzalez

[Dick Allen]

If he plays 1 more year and stays healthy, he'd likely be in line for a Tex level contract.

 

In other words, playing 1 more healthy season would be worth $54 million total, based on the numbers we're guesstimating here.

 

That's why it's not stupid for him to turn it downl.

Who is going to pay him? That's what you're missing here. Maybe he is "in line" for a Texiera deal, but it takes a team to pay him to make that happen. The Yankees are out, Boston isn't prepared to, who else? Texas won't, they got rid of Tex as did the Angels. The Cubs can't. Nobody. Take the money when you can. There's no guarantee even if he hits .350 with 50 homers next year anyone gives him 8 years.

Edited December 5, 2010 by Dick Allen

[Balta1701]

Who is going to pay him?

Both the Angels and the Red Sox were sitting around 8/$170 for Tex when the Yankees stepped in.

[Dick Allen]

Both the Angels and the Red Sox were sitting around 8/$170 for Tex when the Yankees stepped in.

The Red Sox could have had him for the bargain rate of 6 million this year, then added a Tex like contract on to it, and they said no. The Angels are going to sign a big name or 2 this offseason. Chances are they aren't going to be adding $20 million+ a year for 8 years on one player next year, especially if Kendry Morales returns 100%. Its a huge gamble. He's gambling that coming off shoulder surgery he will do better than 6 years and at least $120 million next year. Good luck to him. I believe his agent is not doing a good job. He'll also be 1 year older than Texiera when they hit free agency.

Edited December 5, 2010 by Dick Allen

[Balta1701]

The Red Sox could have had him for the bargain rate of 6 million this year, then added a Tex like contract on to it, and they said no. The Angels are going to sign a big name or 2 this offseason. Chances are they aren't going to be adding $20 million+ a year for 8 years on one player next year, especially if Kendry Morales returns 100%. Its a huge gamble. He's gambling that coming off shoulder surgery he will do better than 6 years and at least $120 million next year. Good luck to him. I believe his agent is not doing a good job.

Either Boston or LAA is going to miss out on Werth and Crawford, and both of them have contracts that end next year (Abreu, Drew, Ortiz).

 

Plus, you can never predict which team is going to get a serious playoff revenue boost that puts them in the picture, too.

 

He's going to be looking at a Tex-like contract if he doesn't get hurt. If Boston isn't prepared to offer that now, then they're not getting him.

[Wanne]

Really wouldn't be surprised to see Texas step into the mix for AGon....

[chunk23]

The Angels, Mets, and Rangers could make a big push for him, especially if the Rangers lose out on Lee.

 

This "only the Red Sox can afford him" talking point is such a destructive media narrative that contributes to the big money teams feasting on the rest.

[Dick Allen]

Either Boston or LAA is going to miss out on Werth and Crawford, and both of them have contracts that end next year (Abreu, Drew, Ortiz).

 

Plus, you can never predict which team is going to get a serious playoff revenue boost that puts them in the picture, too.

 

He's going to be looking at a Tex-like contract if he doesn't get hurt. If Boston isn't prepared to offer that now, then they're not getting him.

Fine, but if they aren't offering it now, chances are they won't be offering it a year from now.

 

Without the Yankees bidding, he won't get 8 years. He's not going to get a Mark Texiera contract unless there are at least 2 teams willing and able to offer it to him, and I don't see it.

[Balta1701]

The Angels, Mets, and Rangers could make a big push for him, especially if the Rangers lose out on Lee.

 

This "only the Red Sox can afford him" talking point is such a destructive media narrative that contributes to the big money teams feasting on the rest.

You could probably come up with 5 other teams who could be in the race in a push as well. San Francisco, the Dodgers if the Divorce thing is ever finalized, Baltimore keeps trying to spend some money on a 1b, the Astros will get out from Carlos Lee's contract after 2012, the Cubs could always surprise us and decide to spend more, etc.

[Dick Allen]

The Angels, Mets, and Rangers could make a big push for him, especially if the Rangers lose out on Lee.

 

This "only the Red Sox can afford him" talking point is such a destructive media narrative that contributes to the big money teams feasting on the rest.

No one is saying that exactly. But I doubt any team will significantly beat what Boston was allegedly willing to pay. He turned down a 6 year extension at over $20 million a year. That's a lot of money.

The Red Sox already offered Gonzalez more money and years than Texas offered or will offer Lee. Plus some of their players are going to get very expensive. The Mets aren't adding $20 million + a year for 8 years any time soon and the Angels are in on Werth and Crawford and Beltre. They may get 2 of 3 and with Morales they would have zero room for him.

[Balta1701]

No one is saying that exactly. But I doubt any team will significantly beat what Boston was allegedly willing to pay. He turned down a 6 year extension at over $20 million a year. That's a lot of money.

I think that's the level Prince Fielder may get to DH somewhere. Gonzalez, if healthy, will blow past that.

[Dick Allen]

You could probably come up with 5 other teams who could be in the race in a push as well. San Francisco, the Dodgers if the Divorce thing is ever finalized, Baltimore keeps trying to spend some money on a 1b, the Astros will get out from Carlos Lee's contract after 2012, the Cubs could always surprise us and decide to spend more, etc.

But you are saying 8 years $180 million. It isn't going to happen.

[Balta1701]

But you are saying 8 years $180 million. It isn't going to happen.

How many big money players have gone onto the FA market, or even the trade market, in the last 15 years, and been disappointed?

[justBLAZE]

Honestly I don't know how he can reject that kind of offer. He rejected a lot of money, because he wanted more. Most of all he rejected a greater chance to WIN.

 

Maybe his elbow isn't what it used to be?

Edited December 5, 2010 by justBLAZE

[Dick Allen]

How many big money players have gone onto the FA market, or even the trade market, in the last 15 years, and been disappointed?

Its not about being dissappointed. He could be guaranteed at least $126 million right now over the next 7 years and have been playing for a perrenial contender. Obviously that didn't appeal to him. He can play for $6 million, but he's going to really have to play his ass off to get the same money and years he turned down, and probably not with the same opportunity of winning. Boston was a nice situation for him. He supposedly wanted to play there, in retrospect probably because that is where he thought he would get paid. Its a gigantic gamble. He's one inside fastball off the fist from being out of a ton of money.

 

BTW, he supposedly he wants 8 years $160 million. A little less than Texiera.

Edited December 5, 2010 by Dick Allen

[Balta1701]

He's one inside fastball off the fist from being out of a ton of money.

Injuries like that don't tend to cost people money, because teams will write that off as a freak incident.

[Dick Allen]

Injuries like that don't tend to cost people money, because teams will write that off as a freak incident.

Or a foul ball off the shin. Ask Jermaine Dye how much that cost him.

[Balta1701]

No one is saying that exactly. But I doubt any team will significantly beat what Boston was allegedly willing to pay. He turned down a 6 year extension at over $20 million a year. That's a lot of money.

The Red Sox already offered Gonzalez more money and years than Texas offered or will offer Lee. Plus some of their players are going to get very expensive. The Mets aren't adding $20 million + a year for 8 years any time soon and the Angels are in on Werth and Crawford and Beltre. They may get 2 of 3 and with Morales they would have zero room for him.

SI_JonHeyman

 

1. Werth gets 7 year deal from #nats 2 minutes ago via web

Yeah, and no teams will step up to pay Gonzalez.

[JPN366]

My heart breaks for the Red Sox, they're America's team.

[Balta1701]

31 year old Jayson Werth just got the same contract that you think 28 year old Adrian Gonzalez should accept; 7/$126.

[Dick Allen]

31 year old Jayson Werth just got the same contract that you think 28 year old Adrian Gonzalez should accept; 7/$126.

Yes. Holding out for a year getting 6 million isn't worth it. If he's so great, he'll get paid beyond the 7th year. If he sucks, he's still sitting pretty the rest of his life. Werth can have fun trying to be .500 in Washington.

[Dick Allen]

Yeah, and no teams will step up to pay Gonzalez.

There's another possibility off the board. Gonzalez was offered the same amount of cash even while playing for only 6 million in 2011, and setting himself up with a stacked team. Its a little different than Werth.

[chunk23]

There's another possibility off the board. Gonzalez was offered the same amount of cash even while playing for only 6 million in 2011, and setting himself up with a stacked team. Its a little different than Werth.

 

Werth already has a ring and if the Nats win while he is there he gets to be a hero.

[Dick Allen]

Werth already has a ring and if the Nats win while he is there he gets to be a hero.

I don't blame Werth for taking the money, I just think Gonzalez needs to examine the situation a little harder and realize a 6 year $120 million extension to play in Boston is not necessarily a discount. Boston isn't going to go 8 years with him. That's been established. The Yankees have a first baseman. They won't be in it. Maybe a surprise desperate team goes 8 years, but that would be a team like Detroit. Does anyone really want to spend 8 years in Detroit? If you're still a good player 6 years from now, you can get another contract. If you're garbage, you still have a nice amount of change to live the rest of your life high on the hog. Timing is a huge part of the big contracts. Take Jeter and Konerko. If both had flipflopped their 2009 and 2010 seasons, there would be a huge difference in the contracts they each will have signed. The other thing is what teams are going to have huge money available to sign the player. Gonzalez has a red flag with his shoulder. Another injury, or a real slow recovery could definitey hurt his offers next offseason. I just don't see why you bother risking it unless you just really aren't all that interested in playing in Boston.

Edited December 5, 2010 by Dick Allen

[Jerksticks]

Werth already has a ring and if the Nats win while he is there he gets to be a hero.

 

Haha, the Killer W's now?

[scenario]

I expect Gonzalez to Boston will happen.

 

Not necessarily a bad strategy for Gonzalez to delay on agreement to a deal until after the winter meetings.

 

Boston wants him bad. The price will go up by the end of the week.