Crawford to Boston, $142 Million, 7 Years

[Chisoxfn]

Crawford has career numbers of .300 avg and .330ish OBP with a sub .800 OPS. Part of his numbers are skewed downward due to his poor season two years ago, but man, this is a lot of dough for a 4-5 WAR replacement player at his prime.

 

Really shows you the importance of developing from within and staying out of the FA market at times. The good thing is Crawford has shown no major health problems and is unlikely to have a high bust factor, but man, when you look past his freakish athletic build, he's just an above average player, nothing more.

[Chisoxfn]

He's remarkably consistent. He'll be between 3-3.5 if he never sees the field defensively. Since that's not gonna happen, 3 is a good projection.

I will say this. I pretty much ignore the WAR factors for first basemen when it comes to defense. I realize Dunn is atrocious and it makes little sense for me to ignoring them for him specifically, but their are multiple first baseman who when I see their defensive WAR's it just doesn't pass or come close to my eye test. Dunn is not one of those guys (I know he stinks there and he does stink there), but I still have a hard time relying on that data set for 1st baseman.

 

Same with catchers.

[3E8]

I will say this. I pretty much ignore the WAR factors for first basemen when it comes to defense. I realize Dunn is atrocious and it makes little sense for me to ignoring them for him specifically, but their are multiple first baseman who when I see their defensive WAR's it just doesn't pass or come close to my eye test. Dunn is not one of those guys (I know he stinks there and he does stink there), but I still have a hard time relying on that data set for 1st baseman.

 

Same with catchers.

You're not alone. The defensive WAR component does not include 1B picks. A guy like PK is closer to average 1B defensively overall because his terrific hands make up for his lack of range. So PK's WAR from defense isn't just. But we don't need a stat to confirm that Dunn is abominable in the outfield (where Ozzie said he will play) and near the bottom at 1B too.

[Kalapse]

Holy crap, we have Jason referencing WAR, what in the hell is going on?

[3E8]

He has embraced the dark side.

[Jordan4life_2007]

Holy crap, we have Jason referencing WAR, what in the hell is going on?

 

lol. I mentioned that the other day. In 5 years will see wOBA, WAR and UZR listed instead of BA, HR, RBI when watching games on the tube. And honestly, I'd love it.

[Chisoxfn]

Holy crap, we have Jason referencing WAR, what in the hell is going on?

Everyone's starting to notice that I've began using some of these fancy stats. Well, as long as they back my own eye test (if I've watched a decent amount of a player or enough of a player to have an opinion). They are clearly valuable tools of information.

 

In no way am I on the same level as you or qwerty when it comes to the whole barrage of things, but I am pretty comfortable with a few of these fancy stats, haha.

[Kalapse]

You're not alone. The defensive WAR component does not include 1B picks. A guy like PK is closer to average 1B defensively overall because his terrific hands make up for his lack of range. So PK's WAR from defense isn't just. But we don't need a stat to confirm that Dunn is abominable in the outfield (where Ozzie said he will play) and near the bottom at 1B too.

Not only his picks but his arm. Konerko is probably the best 1B I've ever seen at turning the 3-6-3/3-6-1 double play, it's incredible how many first basemen can't make the throw to second base but Konerko turns it flawlessly just about every time, it's the kind of thing you really tend to appreciate when you watch a lot of baseball.

 

When looking at Konerko's UZR it just means so little to me, we all know he's not a very good athlete and is slow as s*** so he probably doesn't have great range but in the grand scheme of things there aren't a lot of balls hit into the first basemen's zone anyway, in a given year you can have 40% less balls hit to the 1B than the 3B based on the incredible difference in handedness of pitchers and hitters and then you have the added factor of a first basemen's placement (holding a runner on, playing back and such) it just means so very little. And even then; sure Konerko was around a -14 last year but for his career he's very rarely wondered too far from zero and we've always been warned against placing too much value in a single seasons' UZR, there's so much fluctuation in the numbers you need a few season's worth of data to draw any conclusions.

 

Basically: I find it difficult to knock Konerko's defense when I'm so damn impressed watching him play the field compared to a lot of the 1B I see out there -- and I do watch a ton of baseball -- when one season's worth of a flawed metric is telling me he sucks.

[Kalapse]

Everyone's starting to notice that I've began using some of these fancy stats. Well, as long as they back my own eye test (if I've watched a decent amount of a player or enough of a player to have an opinion). They are clearly valuable tools of information.

 

In no way am I on the same level as you or qwerty when it comes to the whole barrage of things, but I am pretty comfortable with a few of these fancy stats, haha.

It's funny that you're moving toward the advanced metrics after fighting them for so long while I find myself moving further away from them (at least for the defensive metrics) after lauding the damn things.

 

It is nice to see you appreciating the awesomeness that is Adam Dunn, though. After you rebelling against the Thome/Dunn type players for so long.

[Jordan4life_2007]

Not only his picks but his arm. Konerko is probably the best 1B I've ever seen at turning the 3-6-3/3-6-1 double play, it's incredible how many first basemen can't make the throw to second base but Konerko turns it flawlessly just about every time, it's the kind of thing you really tend to appreciate when you watch a lot of baseball.

 

When looking at Konerko's UZR it just means so little to me, we all know he's not a very good athlete and is slow as s*** so he probably doesn't have great range but in the grand scheme of things there aren't a lot of balls hit into the first basemen's zone anyway, in a given year you can have 40% less balls hit to the 1B than the 3B based on the incredible difference in handedness of pitchers and hitters and then you have the added factor of a first basemen's placement (holding a runner on, playing back and such) it just means so very little. And even then; sure Konerko was around a -14 last year but for his career he's very rarely wondered too far from zero and we've always been warned against placing too much value in a single seasons' UZR, there's so much fluctuation in the numbers you need a few season's worth of data to draw any conclusions.

 

Basically: I find it difficult to knock Konerko's defense when I'm so damn impressed watching him play the field compared to a lot of the 1B I see out there -- and I do watch a ton of baseball -- when one season's worth of a flawed metric is telling me he sucks.

 

I really wish you and qwerty would stop hibernating for weeks at a time (months in qwerty's case). And my brother Ace hasn't been around as much either.

[Kalapse]

I really wish you and qwerty would stop hibernating for weeks at a time (months in qwerty's case). And my brother Ace hasn't been around as much either.

I tend to take a nice long break from baseball once the season starts wrapping up, I find it cathartic and the withdraw gets me jonesing for a new baseball season.

[Chisoxfn]

It's funny that you're moving toward the advanced metrics after fighting them for so long while I find myself moving further away from them (at least for the defensive metrics) after lauding the damn things.

 

It is nice to see you appreciating the awesomeness that is Adam Dunn, though. After you rebelling against the Thome/Dunn type players for so long.

You'll see me still b**** about Carlos Pena though. I can't appreciate the pure power if you don't hit at least a respectable average though, haha. I also think there is a place in the roster for these guys, however, if you had 9 players like Dunn/Reynolds/Pena (and I don't really want to put Dunn in that class cause offensively he's far more productive than the other two) that you'd have hard time winning despite the fact that your optimized lineups would churn out pretty ridiculous offensive runs per game numbers.

 

I say that because I still see a lot of value in a hitters ability to hit against good pitchers and I think when you hit .200 you are more likely going to have a harder time getting a hit against an upper echelon pitcher or a good set-up guy/closer. And I think you are most likely to be in those sitautions in the post-season (when teams have 3 to 4 man rotations and in general the teams have far better pitchers) or in late/close game situations (when teams are using their premium relievers).

 

But Dunn is definitely a great fit. I also have a hard time using some of the defensie metrics. I think they can provide decent value in large sample sizes and for certain positions but I still have issues with them and still have more trust in what a scout who covers a player or coach that watches a player every day thinks.

 

I also feel that catchers are probably the hardest overall defensive position to judge. I say that because there are so many intangibles that go with calling a game and to me you can't just go by the pure differential in ERA between catcher A and B.

 

Kalapse: I also completely agree with you on Paulie and I very much appreciate the little things he does (such as the throw to 2nd to turn the DP or just get the force out) and the marvelous job he does digging balls out.

[Kalapse]

It's funny that you're moving toward the advanced metrics after fighting them for so long while I find myself moving further away from them (at least for the defensive metrics) after lauding the damn things.

 

It is nice to see you appreciating the awesomeness that is Adam Dunn, though. After you rebelling against the Thome/Dunn type players for so long.

Just to elaborate on this a bit so no one gets the wrong idea; I still very much like the defensive metrics but I just see so many people using UZR for evil rather than good that it's really starting to upset me. For so long people like Dewan and Lichtman and others of this ilk have warned us that a single season's worth of data is not enough to form any solid conclusions, that we need a few season's worth of UZR to determine a player's ultimate worth yet I see people throwing around a single down or up season in the UZR column as definitive proof that a player is great/horrible defensively. There's such wild fluctuations in the data that a sane person can't possibly take a single season at face value and yet I'm seeing people 3 months into the season looking at this data and talking about how horribly a player has fallen off or picked up his game and this upsets me; it's starting to feel like split stats where someone looks at a player's numbers with RISP in 2010 and decides that he's either clutch or not clutch (god I hate that word). How does someone like Nick Markakis take such a precipitous drop from '08 to date? It makes no sense. These numbers are so damn valuable but at the same time so easy to exploit that it becomes horribly upsetting.

[joeynach]

What is the luxury tax threshold and how much over does this Crawford contact put the Red Sox.

[Kalapse]

You'll see me still b**** about Carlos Pena though. I can't appreciate the pure power if you don't hit at least a respectable average though, haha. I also think there is a place in the roster for these guys, however, if you had 9 players like Dunn/Reynolds/Pena (and I don't really want to put Dunn in that class cause offensively he's far more productive than the other two) that you'd have hard time winning despite the fact that your optimized lineups would churn out pretty ridiculous offensive runs per game numbers.

 

I say that because I still see a lot of value in a hitters ability to hit against good pitchers and I think when you hit .200 you are more likely going to have a harder time getting a hit against an upper echelon pitcher or a good set-up guy/closer. And I think you are most likely to be in those sitautions in the post-season (when teams have 3 to 4 man rotations and in general the teams have far better pitchers) or in late/close game situations (when teams are using their premium relievers).

 

But Dunn is definitely a great fit. I also have a hard time using some of the defensie metrics. I think they can provide decent value in large sample sizes and for certain positions but I still have issues with them and still have more trust in what a scout who covers a player or coach that watches a player every day thinks.

 

I also feel that catchers are probably the hardest overall defensive position to judge. I say that because there are so many intangibles that go with calling a game and to me you can't just go by the pure differential in ERA between catcher A and B.

 

Kalapse: I also completely agree with you on Paulie and I very much appreciate the little things he does (such as the throw to 2nd to turn the DP or just get the force out) and the marvelous job he does digging balls out.

It's scary but I largely agree with you; just this past season I was preaching the value of the old standby: batting average. You have people who act as if it means nothing at all but at least in my opinion there's a tremendous amount of value in picking up a hit once every three and a third at bats.

[chw42]

Crawford has career numbers of .300 avg and .330ish OBP with a sub .800 OPS. Part of his numbers are skewed downward due to his poor season two years ago, but man, this is a lot of dough for a 4-5 WAR replacement player at his prime.

 

Really shows you the importance of developing from within and staying out of the FA market at times. The good thing is Crawford has shown no major health problems and is unlikely to have a high bust factor, but man, when you look past his freakish athletic build, he's just an above average player, nothing more.

 

When he's healthy, Crawford is a 6-7 win player, like he was last year. But a couple of years down the line, he might only be a 4-5. Eventually, he'll be average (2 wins) or less by the end of the contract. Who knows what stat we'll use by then...

 

And I'd say he's one of the best left fielders in all of baseball. I wouldn't take too many others before him in left.

Edited December 9, 2010 by chw42

[Leonard Washington]

You'll see me still b**** about Carlos Pena though. I can't appreciate the pure power if you don't hit at least a respectable average though, haha. I also think there is a place in the roster for these guys, however, if you had 9 players like Dunn/Reynolds/Pena (and I don't really want to put Dunn in that class cause offensively he's far more productive than the other two) that you'd have hard time winning despite the fact that your optimized lineups would churn out pretty ridiculous offensive runs per game numbers.

 

I say that because I still see a lot of value in a hitters ability to hit against good pitchers and I think when you hit .200 you are more likely going to have a harder time getting a hit against an upper echelon pitcher or a good set-up guy/closer. And I think you are most likely to be in those sitautions in the post-season (when teams have 3 to 4 man rotations and in general the teams have far better pitchers) or in late/close game situations (when teams are using their premium relievers).

 

But Dunn is definitely a great fit. I also have a hard time using some of the defensie metrics. I think they can provide decent value in large sample sizes and for certain positions but I still have issues with them and still have more trust in what a scout who covers a player or coach that watches a player every day thinks.

 

I also feel that catchers are probably the hardest overall defensive position to judge. I say that because there are so many intangibles that go with calling a game and to me you can't just go by the pure differential in ERA between catcher A and B.

 

Kalapse: I also completely agree with you on Paulie and I very much appreciate the little things he does (such as the throw to 2nd to turn the DP or just get the force out) and the marvelous job he does digging balls out.

I agree....the DBacks are a perfect example of a team that can't succeed with a lineup of so many all or nothing guys..especially when Dunn was there.

 

I also agree about guys like Pena....they're mistake hitters and they usually prey on guys who can't locate. Guys who can locate can usually exploit the massive holes in mistake hitters' swings. I think Pena's holes are simply becoming more recognized and he's paying the price (Troy Glaus comes to mind).

 

I also agree with defensive stats being tough to measure with 1B's and C's especially, but catcher's by FAR the most statistically enigmatic position. Catcher is easily the most demanding defensive position, and the position where intangibles are most important. I read an interview (just an hour ago actually) with Chris Sale, and he gave AJ a ton of credit for his immediate success. You can't measure that.

Edited December 9, 2010 by Pale Sox

[chw42]

Wow, this thread turned into a sabr orgy.

[Leonard Washington]

haha...I'm not sure if you're talking about me, but I've never considered myself a sabr guy. I like to scout first, and check that stats to see where I'm agreed and differed with.

[chw42]

lol. I mentioned that the other day. In 5 years will see wOBA, WAR and UZR listed instead of BA, HR, RBI when watching games on the tube. And honestly, I'd love it.

 

ESPN's bottom line said something about how PK and Dunn are two of the worst defensive 1B according to advanced metrics this past year. Too bad 1. that's not true (according to UZR, Dunn was a -3, not that bad) and 2. we all know 1B UZR is usually more skewed and unreliable in a small sample sizes than any other position. This was the case for both Konerko and Dunn last year. Dunn, with the reputation and skill of a butcher, got a -3 in UZR after posting a -30 in 09. Konerko, who has a career UZR/150 of -2, posted a -13, one of the worst in the league.

 

What pissed me off was that they just had to mention that in the bottom line. Like seriously, what was the point? To make Cubs fans happy about Carlos Pena?

[chw42]

haha...I'm not sure if you're talking about me, but I've never considered myself a sabr guy. I like to scout first, and check that stats to see where I'm agreed and differed with.

 

I was talking more specifically about the last page.

 

 

[Leonard Washington]

I was talking more specifically about the last page.

I'm slightly drunk and equally touchy...

[bighurt4life]

K Law did writeups on the Crawford signing and the Konerko signing.

 

 

http://insider.espn.go.com/mlb/blog?name=l...&id=5901522

 

http://insider.espn.go.com/mlb/blog?name=l...&id=5899670

 

If you don't have insider I'll paraphrase for you. Boston made a great signing (Law gave it an A+) and Crawford will age very well and be worth every penny, Chicago overpaid and Konerko sucks.

 

Boston has Crawford signed though his age 35 season, unless he turns out to have the body of Ricky Henderson he will start slowing down very soon and probably be worth only 15-20 steals the last couple years of his contract, combine that with marginal power for a corner OF and a bad walk rate/OBP and you have a 35yo LF with an OPS around 700-750 getting paid 20 million. I think that they are going to be seriously disappointed in this deal a few years down the road, it won't be as bad as Vernon Wells or Soriano but close.

 

 

[chw42]

K Law did writeups on the Crawford signing and the Konerko signing.

 

 

http://insider.espn.go.com/mlb/blog?name=l...&id=5901522

 

http://insider.espn.go.com/mlb/blog?name=l...&id=5899670

 

If you don't have insider I'll paraphrase for you. Boston made a great signing (Law gave it an A+) and Crawford will age very well and be worth every penny, Chicago overpaid and Konerko sucks.

 

Boston has Crawford signed though his age 35 season, unless he turns out to have the body of Ricky Henderson he will start slowing down very soon and probably be worth only 15-20 steals the last couple years of his contract, combine that with marginal power for a corner OF and a bad walk rate/OBP and you have a 35yo LF with an OPS around 700-750 getting paid 20 million. I think that they are going to be seriously disappointed in this deal a few years down the road, it won't be as bad as Vernon Wells or Soriano but close.

 

Keith Law and his agendas...

[Leonard Washington]

For anyone who's interested in my opinions about these reactions, I'm the first guy to respond to the post on MLBTR.

 

I am SplitFingeredPujol